| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward | | 
Smoke rises over the site of explosion at an ammunition storage of Russian army near the village of Mayskoye, Crimea, Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022. | AP Photo | With help from Lawrence Ukenye, Christopher Miller and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex Attacking Crimea is fair game for Ukraine — and it has America's support to hit the Russians there. Kyiv was behind the three explosions this past week on the Russian-annexed peninsula, per a CNN-obtained Ukrainian government document, including a large blast at Saki airbase that destroyed several of Moscow's warplanes. No Ukrainian official has yet publicly admitted to Kyiv's involvement in the Crimea campaign. But Defense Minister OLEKSII REZNIKOV told Voice of America Wednesday that Ukraine hasn't ruled out striking the occupied territory with U.S.-provided weapons. "If we are talking today about the de-occupation of temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine where the enemy is, then, correspondingly, we have no such restrictions," he said, emphasizing that there still would be no attacks inside the legally recognized boundaries of Russia (though there have been some, umm, mysterious blasts on Russian border cities ). A senior administration official told NatSec Daily the U.S. supports strikes on Crimea if Kyiv deems them necessary. "We don't select targets, of course, and everything we've provided is for self-defense purposes. Any target they choose to pursue on sovereign Ukrainian soil is by definition self defense," this person said. After your host checked to see if the administration considered the peninsula sovereign Ukrainian territory, the official replied: "Crimea is Ukraine." A Ukrainian official said that message of support has made its way to Kyiv. That's the right stance to take, experts told NatSec Daily. "Russian forces have no business being there, and attacking Russian forces in Crimea is no different than attacking them around Kyiv or in Kherson or eastern Ukraine," said KURT VOLKER, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO and special representative for Ukraine during the Trump administration. The Biden administration's position isn't a shift so much as an affirmation of long-standing policy. Even though they have been exceedingly clear Ukraine shouldn't use American-made weapons to attack inside Russia — which President JOE BIDEN fears would spark World War III — Washington doesn't recognize Moscow's control over the forcibly seized peninsula. As a result, it's open season on Russian targets inside Crimea — and it sure seems like more attacks are coming. The world may witness more explosions in Crimea over the "next two or three months," MYKHAILO PODOLYAK, a top adviser to Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, told The Guardian Tuesday. Where is the Ukrainian counteroffensive?: Kyiv has been saying for months that it's launching a counteroffensive to take back control of Kherson — so where is it? "Ukrainian artillery and rockets provided by the U.S. and allies have smashed bridges and Russian ammunition depots close to the city, but the larger movement of infantry has yet to happen. Meanwhile, the Russians are reinforcing and digging in," our own CHRISTOPHER MILLER and PAUL McLEARY reported. Was all the talk about a counteroffensive a feint, or is Ukraine struggling to arm up for the fight? "Why the public messaging around Kherson? I'll be honest with you, I don't know, but this is something that is driving me crazy," said KONRAD MUZYKA, a military analyst and director of Rochan Consulting, which tracks the war. "Frankly, from a military point of view, absolutely it does not make sense, because if you are a Ukrainian military commander you would much rather fight, let's say, the seven Russian battalion tactical groups that were in northern Kherson a month ago, not the 15 or 20 there now," Muzyka added, while noting that Russian losses have weakened the fighting strength of some of these battalions.
| | | TAIWAN CONDUCTS AIR DRILLS: Taiwanese F-16 fighter jets took to the skies on Wednesday in response to China's recent military exercises near the Taiwan Strait, Reuters reported. While Taiwanese President TSAI ING-WEN has stressed the importance of avoiding confrontation with Beijing, the moves come at a time of angst between both sides as U.S. congressional visits have ramped up tensions. After Speaker NANCY PELOSI defied China's warnings by visiting Taiwan while touring in Asia, an additional congressional delegation arrived just more than a week later to offer their support for the self-governing island. Taiwan's air drills also come a day after QIN GANG, China's ambassador to the U.S., warned that additional visits by lawmakers or arms sales could further destabilize tensions in the region. Our own PHELIM KINE suffered through 90 minutes of the ambassador's invective. SYRIA DENIES HOLDING TICE: Syria denies it is holding American journalist AUSTIN TICE hostage, even though he was taken near Damascus a decade ago. Last week, Biden said the U.S. knew " with certainty " that Tice was in Syria. In response, Syria's Foreign Ministry said such assertions were "invalid accusations against the Syrian government of kidnapping or arresting U.S. citizens, among them Austin Tice, a service member in the U.S. Army." "Syria emphasizes that any official dialogue or communication with the U.S. government side will only be public and based on the rule of respecting the sovereignty and independence and unity of the Syrian Arab Republic's land," the statement continued. Biden met with Tice's parents in May, telling them the administration was working to bring their son home — though his team was running out of ideas of how to convince Syria to let him go. "I just don't know what else to do," he said, leaning back in his chair in the Oval Office. IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @alexbward. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @ChristopherJM, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @magmill95 — plus our summer interns, @Lawrence_Ukenye and @nicolle_liu.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | CHINA JOINS RUSSIA FOR MIL DRILLS: Chinese military forces will take part in a Russian-hosted military exercise with other countries in the region, NBC News reported. Beijing claims its participation in the drills, known as "Vostok," isn't related to recent tensions in eastern Europe or southeast Asia, but rather part of a bilateral agreement between China and Moscow. In May, both countries conducted their first military drills since Russia invaded Ukraine, angering Washington as the exercise took place as Biden was meeting with allies in Asia. Vostok will run from Aug. 30 through Sept. 5 and feature multiple regional forces including Belarus, which has supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and India, a member of the U.S.-led Quad alliance that drew ire from Washington from refusing to condemn Russia's invasion. Russia's eastern military district includes parts of Siberia. The drills come as the U.S. and South Korea will hold joint exercises from Aug. 22 and Sept. 1, The Associated Press' KIM TONG-HYUNG reported.
| | | READINESS IN CYBERSPACE: A Navy experiment to hack its own networks with more frequency revealed dangerous vulnerabilities that otherwise wouldn't have been detected with the military's current "checklist" cybersecurity approach, Defense One's PATRICK TUCKER reported. The checklist approach is good for bureaucracy, the Navy's Chief Information Officer AARON WEIS told Tucker, because it's an easy way to show which unit or company searched for problems and patched them. It's contract management at its finest. What works better, Weis suggested, was adopting the "military readiness" concept for physical operations to cyberdefense. "There's 'ready to fight tonight.' But if you are a carrier strike group and you're deploying in three months, are you on a path to being ready? You manage your readiness on a day-to-day basis and it's a function of a whole bunch of things," he said. "Do we have the right people? Are they trained? Are they qualified, or deficient? Do we have the equipment?" Weis aims to permeate this general cyber-readiness mentality not only throughout the Navy, but the broader Pentagon.
| | | BOEING, NORTHROP JOIN AM FORWARD: Boeing and Northrop Grumman have joined Additive Manufacturing Forward, the White House-backed program to help smaller American suppliers boost their 3D-printing capabilities. Per a news release, both companies will now "purchase additively produced parts from smaller U.S.-based suppliers; train the workers of their suppliers on new additive technologies; provide detailed technical assistance to support their suppliers' adoption of new capabilities; and engage in development of common standards and certification for additive products." "A priority of this Administration is to lower the cost of the goods and services that families rely on, and one of the best ways to do that is to make more things in America, with more secure and more resilient supply chains," SUE HELPER, senior adviser for industrial strategy at the Office of Management and Budget, said in a Wednesday statement. "We applaud Boeing and Northrop Grumman for recognizing the benefits of promoting additive manufacturing in their supply chains and for making public commitments to support broader adoption."
| | | DEMS LINING UP TO BACK JCPOA RETURN: Little by little, congressional Democrats are raising their voices in support of America's return to the Iran deal — which may, despite all the odds, come back to life in a short while. "The Iran nuclear deal made America and the world safer. Restoring the JCPOA is key to preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons, an extremely important foreign policy objective for our interests in the region and our global leadership," Rep. DON BEYER (D-Va.) tweeted Wednesday morning. "Getting back into the Iran nuclear deal is the most important thing America can do to secure our interests in the Middle East. Let's get this done," Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) tweeted yesterday. Most Republicans and a handful of Democrats will rail against the rebirth of the nuclear pact if and when it happens, even if the Biden administration doesn't plan to give Congress any say. That's led some congressional Dems to tell your host that they're preparing to defend the agreement the moment a deal is struck in Vienna. Expect the debate to turn ugly, just as it did in the run-up to the original signing in 2015.
| | | FORMERS: GIVE UKRAINE ATACMS: Nearly 20 former NATO military chiefs, U.S. ambassadors to the alliance and Ukraine and other experts say it's time for the administration to give ATACMS surface-to-surface air missiles to Kyiv. "Ukraine needs long-range fires to disrupt the Russian offensive, including Russian resupply, fuel, and ammunition stocks. That means the U.S. should send ATACMS munitions, fired by HIMARS with the 300km range necessary to strike Russian military targets anywhere in Ukraine, including occupied Crimea," wrote the experts, including retired Gens. PHILIP BREEDLOVE and WESLEY CLARK and former ambassadors WILLIAM TAYLOR and MARIE YOVANOVITCH. DEBRA CAGAN, who advises the Ukrainian government, is listed as a co-author. National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told an audience at the Aspen Security Forum last month that Biden wasn't prepared to give Ukraine the ATACMS for fear of starting World War III. NatSec Daily asked for an updated comment but didn't hear back before publication.
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — MELANIE NAKAGAWA, the NSC's senior director for climate and energy, will depart the White House next week after serving since day one of the administration, a White House official told DANIEL LIPPMAN. STEPHANIE EPNER is joining the NSC as special adviser for climate and acting senior director for climate and energy through the end of the year. She most recently was senior adviser on climate change and foreign policy at the State Department where she worked closely with Special Presidential Envoy for Climate JOHN KERRY and also was on Secretary of State TONY BLINKEN's policy planning staff. — Global Citizen has added six new board members: PHUMZILE MLAMBO-NGCUKA, former United Nations under-secretary-general and executive director of UN Women; JUDY SMITH, founder, CEO, Smith & Company; ERNA SOLBERG, former prime minister of Norway; KRISTIN LEMKAU, CEO, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management; NIR BAR DEA, co-CEO, Bridgewater; and DIEGO SCOTTI, EVP & CMO, Verizon. And new Europe Board members include: co-chair SABRINA DHOWRE ELBA, UN goodwill ambassador for IFAD; Dame KAREN PIERCE, the U.K. ambassador to the U.S.; and SAWSAN CHEBLI, a German politician and former spokesperson for the foreign minister.
| | | |   | | | | | | — ELISE LABOTT, POLITICO Magazine: " 'This Was the Albatross Around His Neck All Year' " — ABDUL MATIN BEK, 1945: " An Afghan Negotiator Reflects on a Year of Taliban Rule " — KAY BAILEY HUTCHINSON and JANE HARMAN, The Wall Street Journal: " Save the International Space Station "
| | | — The Atlantic Council, 12 p.m.: "Iraq's internal politics & prospects of expanding its regional role after the Jeddah summit." — The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 12 p.m.: "Bosnia Herzegovina in Crisis." — Vinson and Elkins, 1 p.m.: "Navigating the Foreign Investment and National Security Priorities of the Department of Energy." — The Cato Institute, 2:30 p.m.: "America's Great-Power Opportunity: Revitalizing U.S. Foreign Policy to Meet the Challenges of Strategic Competition." — The Center for Strategic International Studies, 5 p.m.: "Democratic Responses to Foreign Interference: Learning from Australia's Experience" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who doesn't recognize my sovereignty over this newsletter, which is why he's constantly attacking me.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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