| | | | |  | | By Ryan Heath | Follow Ryan on Twitter
| | | This Global Insider edition is all about the reality check — a necessary corrective given the amount of Chinese Communist Party propaganda that has been absorbed, reflected and regurgitated around Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Let's start with the facts: Pelosi landed safely in Taipei and Taiwanese people continue to live and work with the same security they did last week. The Speaker told Taiwan's Legislature today: "We come in friendship to Taiwan. We come in peace to the region." The visit comes with risks, but they don't arise because of a controversial Congressional delegation. The risks to Taiwan's independence existed before and after Pelosi set foot on the island — and regardless of whether American and other Western audiences spend time thinking about them. Giving into Beijing's histrionics, and equivocating on fundamental rights, is a losing game. Joining the fervor — as some American commentators including Tom Friedman have done in recent days , filling an information vacuum Pelosi wanted around the visit — indicates successful long-term Chinese Communist Party propaganda on Taiwan. That's a dangerous road to follow: We've seen how eight years of equivocating on Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity contributed to Russia's 2022 invasion; even a treaty was not enough to save Hong Kong from Beijing's reach. Fundamental rights do not protect themselves — and their loss is frequently accelerated by absorbing and regurgitating autocratic narratives. Most governments contort themselves to avoid saying Taiwan is a self-governing country. They prefer to avoid China's wrath and a potential trade spat. That's their prerogative. Yet Taiwan has the 21st biggest economy in the world, issues its own passport, operates its own military and is run by an elected president, Tsai Ing-wen.
|  Twitter | In a world where President Joe Biden fist bumps Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and French President Emmanuel Macron has him over for dinner at the Elysée Palace, it is absurd to posit that the Speaker of the House of the world's greatest democracy should not be allowed to visit Taiwan. Some from the "realist" foreign policy crowd in Washington concede Pelosi is "not morally wrong" to visit Taiwan — that's how Emma Ashford put it to Global Insider — but they see no direct benefit from the visit. Pelosi did finally explain her visit in unequivocal terms, after landing. "In the face of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) accelerating aggression, our congressional delegation's visit should be seen as an unequivocal statement that America stands with Taiwan ," Pelosi wrote, noting that the 2018 Taiwan Travel Act authorizes "officials at all levels of the United States government … to meet their Taiwanese counterparts." Why now? Pelosi took advantage of a small window — before China's President Xi Jinping is installed for life at the party congress in October, and possibly before her own speakership ends following midterm elections in November. Global reactions have been muted. Few have rushed to Pelosi's defense and many have urged calm . Lithuania's Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis is one of a few officials that dared to champion her trip: "Now Speaker Pelosi has opened the door to Taiwan much wider , I am sure other defenders of freedom and democracy will be walking through very soon," he tweeted.
| | | | INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY . | | | | | WHAT ARE THE REAL RISKS IN TAIWAN? Pelosi's visit is often framed in terms of Beijing's aggressive reaction, as though Pelosi herself is provoking a war. She isn't, but the visit does provide cover for a number of actions that could go wrong. Military risks: China's Eastern Theater Command plans to surround Taiwan with four days of live-fire drills starting Thursday , including some within 10 miles of Taiwan's coast, in airspace and waters Taiwan designates as its territory. Long-range missiles will be fired. Economic risks: China now has a pretext for additional economic and cyber pressure on Taiwan and allies. Various Taiwanese government websites have been crippled. Beijing suspended imports on around 100 Taiwan food and agriculture firms — the restrictions impact up to 3,200 products imported from Taiwan. The U.S. is not exempt from the fallout: Bloomberg scooped that China's Contemporary Amperex Technology, the world's biggest maker of batteries for electric vehicles, has pushed back announcing a multibillion-dollar North American plant due to tensions raised by Pelosi's trip to Taiwan. Diplomatic risks: Does this visit make life easier for U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific? No. But, when was life easy in China's shadow? There are just 14 countries that now recognize Taiwan as an independent country. Beijing is certain to redouble its efforts and inducements to get the holdouts to switch to "One China" policies instead. Chinese officials are also working to slap down any ministers in democracies defending Taiwan , including German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. The U.S. Ambassador, Nicholas Burns, was summoned to a late-night meeting in Beijing and told that defenders of Taiwan "will eventually be pinned on the pillar of shame in history " for speaking out. MORE REALITY CHECKS Beijing routinely dismisses Taiwan and infringes on its airspace, territorial waters, and cyber domains. China also wants to run the world. That means it wants to elbow aside America as the world's most powerful country. For everyone else less able to stand up to Beijing, the risk is being totally steamrolled. Defense of values does not guarantee economic loss: In recent years, Taiwan has found ways to lock in its greatest economic boom , despite China ratcheting up economic pressure. HYPERVENTILATION AWARD: Tom Friedman used a New York Times column to casually make the claim that the U.S. government doesn't trust President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Ukraine, while shouting about Pelosi being "utterly reckless, dangerous and irresponsible." ANDREW FORREST INTERVIEW
| 
Fortescue Future Industries campaign to rally support for Inflation Reduction Act | Fortescue Future Industries | Australia's richest man and the founder of Fortescue Future Industries, sees the Inflation Reduction Act as critical to turning America's coal-fired power-plants into green hydrogen plants. And he's not afraid to splash attention and cash to share those views in Washington. Forrest's interest? He wants to convert Washington's Centralia coal mine into a green hydrogen facility, the first of many potential North American green energy projects, including in Joe Manchin territory: West Virginia. The U.S. has flip-flopped on climate policy before. What's your level of trust in the Inflation Reduction Act, and where does it come from? My trust comes from speaking with hardcore coal industry leaders. I tell them this bill gives you a Plan B for your coal-fired power stations. This Act could lead West Virginia, and other heavy industrial states, to become the green energy superpowers of the globe. And they listen? I just got off the phone to one of them. They look at me very much as one of them and I speak in black and white industrial language. I've explained to, say, Joe Craft — a legendary Trump-aligned, heavy-duty coal guy — that you and your employees are not married to coal. You're actually married to employment, family, community, creating energy. You're married to energy, not coal. Does this Act make your investment case for green hydrogen? Is it enough to ensure America's green energy transition? It could go higher, it could be broader, but it is one hell of a good start. It will cover a lot of the initial operating cost [of the transition], and it's simple. Simplicity always wins. There are more attractive regimes in Europe — which basically guarantee you no loss or a profit — but they're complicated mechanisms. What do you make of the states standing to benefit most from a coal-to-hydrogen transition tending to be more rural or Republican-leaning? Those Republican rural communities have been sold this rubbish line of "it's either coal or doom." The real doom for them is if the world goes off and does something else and leaves them behind. Biden put jobs at the center of his climate messaging. Does the messenger instead need to be someone with a track record of creating jobs? It's a bloody good point. I've met with coal-fired power station workers in West Virginia. When I stand in front of them, I'm a person who's employed 23,000 people from scratch. I'm not some fat cat, and they can see that. I can say to them we're not going to be able to use your [existing] career. But everything else we can really use: your energy, your innovation, your character. They don't want to hear "we're shutting this down and we're gonna bank the carbon credits." So my job is to say "do not fear the green industrial revolution — it needs more people like us." What do U.N. climate negotiations get wrong? That's easy. I'd ask all those negotiators to speak and look through the lens of employment. Talk about employment and the beauty of hydrogen and ammonia and green ethanol and green aviation fuels — and turning trucks, ships and trains green. I've automated a mining company. In miles, Fortescue Metals Group machines have been to the moon and back 150 times, fully autonomously. It could have been absolutely devastating for all those drivers: Four drivers for every truck, thrown out of work. We lost no one. We employed 8,000 people when we started automating, and we employed 16,000 when we finished. We didn't make money on chopping heads, we made money on efficiency, which gave us growth. There's nowhere in the world where you have automation and high tech, without high employment. Run climate messages through employment, and people will listen.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today . | | | | | UNITED STATES — CONSERVATIVE PUSH FOR A CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION: Sixteen Democrat-controlled states have voted to give their electoral college votes to the winner of the national popular vote in presidential elections, while some left-wing groups have argued to expand the Supreme Court. But there's relatively little momentum for constitutional tinkering in U.S. progressive circles. On the right, there's now a quiet but growing movement to rewrite the constitution, supported by 19 Republican-led states. Rob Natelson, a constitutional scholar and senior fellow at the Independence Institute, predicted to Insider's Grace Panetta and Brent D. Griffiths that there's a 50 percent chance that the United States will witness a constitutional convention in the next five years.
| 
People cheer at a watch party in Overland Park, Kan., after learning that voters rejected a state constitutional amendment that would have allowed the Legislature to restrict or ban abortion, late Tuesday. | Angie Ricono/KCTV5 via AP | UNITED STATES — KANSAS VOTES TO MAINTAIN ABORTION RIGHTS: Roe, Roe, Roe your vote. By a margin of 61 to 39 percent, voters in red-leaning Kansas turned out to protect abortion rights. The vote was scheduled by Republican legislators on primary day rather than the general election in an effort to take advantage of generally lower turnout among Democrats. More on the surprise victory for reproductive rights advocates . POLITICO's takeaway : "If the politics of Roe proved fraught for Republicans in Kansas, it's going to be even more treacherous for the GOP in swing-ier, more moderate swaths of the country." UKRAINE — POW MASSACRE CONFIRMED: The U.S. has joined independent investigators and Ukraine in assessing that Ukrainian forces did not attack a prison last week in a Russian-occupied eastern region of Donetsk with American-made HIMARS rocket launchers last week, directly contradicting Russian claims. The death toll from the attack is estimated at 53 Ukrainians, with another 75 wounded. Open-source investigators had previously concluded that the attack could not have been from a Ukrainian rocket, because there was no impact crater and victims had been burned alive (they would have been torn apart had rockets been used). NEW GLOBAL ALLIANCE TO END AIDS IN CHILDREN: UNICEF, UNAIDS, and WHO launched a New Global Alliance to End AIDS in Children by 2030, at a global conference in Montreal. Today, only 52 percent of children living with HIV are on life-saving treatment: far behind the 76 percent of adults receiving the antiretroviral treatments. Countries that have signed up to the alliance include Angola, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
| | | CELEBRITIES WITH THE HIGHEST PRIVATE JET EMISSIONS: Taylor Swift, Floyd Mayweather, and Jay-Z more than match the Kardashians . JEFF BEZOS' SUPERYACHT IS STRANDED … BUT BY A BRIDGE NO ONE USES: The Koningshaven Bridge in Rotterdam maybe be a landmark, but it's been out of use for nearly 30 years. It also happens to be blocking Bezos' 400-foot superyacht from hitting the ocean . The problem is that in the Netherlands the dominant strand of culture screams: don't show your wealth, just show how normal you are. Bezos' yacht remains in dry-dock as a result. BRAIN FOOD VISUAL — The Palace Of Westminster is falling down : A guide to British democracy's inability to save its own seat. BOOK: Most eyes are on Taiwan, but is China distracting us from a "second Pearl Harbor" ? SHORT READ: War spurs efforts to legalize same sex unions in Ukraine . If you die fighting for your country, shouldn't your partner learn about it before your funeral? President Zelenskyy agrees: In his official response to a public petition demanding the legalization of same-sex marriages, Zelenskyy reported that the government is already working out options for the registration of civil partnerships. Thanks to editor Ben Pauker and producer Mallory Culhane. SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: D.C. Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | Paris Playbook | EU Confidential | D.C. Influence | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Direct | Berlin Bulletin | Living Cities POLITICO is now on Snapchat — watch my first show here , on the race to replace Boris Johnson.
| 
| | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
Comments
Post a Comment