Everyone’s descending on North Carolina now

How race and identity are shaping politics, policy and power.

Sep 27, 2022 View in browser   By Brakkton Booker With help from Jesse Naranjo, Rishika Dugyala and Teresa Wiltz  Sean Rayford/Getty Images, Chris Seward/AP Photo What up, Recast family! Florida is bracing for a direct hit from Hurricane Ian. The storm was cited as the reason for postponing Wednesday's scheduled Jan. 6 select committee hearing. Plus Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell calls Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D) the "most effective first-term senator" he's ever seen. First, we focus on the Tarheel State's tightening Senate race.  North Carolina's sleepy Senate contest received a jolt of energy following a pair of high-profile visits to the state. Former President Donald Trump returned to the state Friday to headline a rally in Wilmington where he referred to three-term Rep. Ted Budd , the GOP Senate nominee, as "a conservative, America-first all-star in Congress." Trump declared that voters must elect Budd because if the Democrat in the race is elected — that would be Cheri Beasley — "the Squad will have total control and they will drive America right off the cliff." He is, of course, referring to the group of far-left House lawmakers. WATCH: What the chair of the NCGOP had to say about Trump's latest rally and its impact on voters Meanwhile, Beasley, who was the first Black woman to serve as chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, got a boost from Doug Jones, the former Alabama senator. Jones, who served as the so-called sherpa to Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson's Supreme Court confirmation process, is seen as a Democrat who knows how to win in the South. And he's made it clear he's betting on Beasley, campaigning with her in counties near Fayetteville and Raleigh on Saturday. The tough talk by surrogates overshadows what has been a rather milquetoast, low-wattage campaign by both the Budd and Beasley camps in the race to succeed the retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr. While Senate races in Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona receive far more media attention, perhaps no state is more crucial to which party controls the Senate next year than North Carolina. Demographic shifts in the state will play an increasingly important role this cycle, as the state added roughly 900,000 million people in the previous decade , according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Much of the growth is centered in the state's two largest metro areas, Charlotte and the Triangle region near Raleigh, where the population is more diverse. That population explosion is the reason why North Carolina was among a handful of states to gain a congressional seat in 2022. It also may explain why Beasley is gaining momentum in the race, pulling into a statistical tie with Budd. A survey out last week from Emerson College and The Hill found Budd's advantage over Beasley narrowing to 3 points: 46 percent to 43 percent. The GOP has recent history on its side though, having defeated Democrats in the last three Senate contests. That includes the 2020 race that many predicted was the best Democratic chance in flipping the seat. But as you may recall, a sex scandal in the closing weeks of the election doomed Cal Cunningham — despite his robust fundraising and once-commanding lead in the polls. Prior to capturing the coveted Trump endorsement during the primary, Budd, a gun shop owner, was a virtual unknown to many Republican voters. Former President Donald Trump, right, endorses Republican Ted Budd, left, for the North Carolina U.S. Senate seat at a rally Friday, Sept. 23, 2022, in Wilmington, N.C. | Chris Seward/AP Photo Perhaps that's why Trump descended on North Carolina: to ensure the bet he made on Budd pays off. "The president is here to help energize the base," Michael Whatley, the North Carolina GOP chair, tells The Recast. "We need that and we know that we need that. But I don't think he'd be here if this weren't a winnable race." Inflation and the economy are the top issues resonating with voters, according to Whatley. And in order to claim victory in November, Republicans must win over the state's unaffiliated voters by roughly 8 to 10 points. Perhaps that's why Budd sought to paint Beasley as a rubber stamp for the Biden administration and someone "far too extreme" for the state. "She has fundraised with the leader of the defund the police movement as well as leftist candidates who think somehow that defunding the police is a thoughtful idea," Budd said, as the crowd responded with a smattering of boos. That "defund the police" reference is connected to something Republicans have attempted to pin on Beasley since a Federal Election Commission filing had her listed along Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) for a joint fundraiser in 2021. Bush has unabashedly called for the divestment of government funds away from law enforcement budgets and to redistribute them to social services and other community programs. But Beasley has sought to distance herself from the "defund the police" labeling, including headlining an event last month in Durham aiming to bring together members of her party and law enforcement personnel. Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Cheri Beasley speaks during a campaign appearance in Durham, N.C., on Monday, Aug. 29, 2022. | Hannah Schoenbaum/AP Photo When she goes on the offensive, Beasley reminds voters that Budd was one of the 147 Republicans who voted against the certification of the 2020 election results. She also highlights that he co-sponsored legislation in Congress that would ban abortion across the country after 15 weeks of pregnancy. "Our freedoms are on the ballot this November," Beasley said in a statement released by her campaign over the weekend. "While I've spent over two decades upholding the Constitution and protecting our rights, Congressman Budd is an election-denier leading the charge on passing a national abortion ban." Some Democrats hope that as the contest tightens, Beasley will be more aggressive in her politicking — from tooting her own horn to attacking Budd more forcefully. But that's not her style. The judge is clearly betting that her calm, reserved demeanor will be the ticket to victory in November. WATCH: The first vice chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party explain what it takes to win in the Tarheel State Floyd McKissick, the first vice chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party, says the balance of power in the state is often determined by just a few thousand votes. And if Democrats want to win, they have to start talking up the party's hard-won achievements. "You've got to make sure you resonate with voters. You've got to get people to understand the consequences and what's at stake in this particular election," McKissick says. We'll continue to keep tabs on this contest in the final weeks. But it appears, once again, North Carolina is getting a nail-biter. All the best, The Recast Team   Power dynamics are changing. With The Recast, you'll get a twice-weekly breakdown of how race and identity are the DNA of American politics and policy. Was this forwarded to you by a friend? Subscribe to the newsletter here.   THE DISAFFECTION OF THE BLACK VOTER With six weeks until the midterm elections, there is fresh analysis out from the NAACP and HIT Strategies, a public opinion research company, tracking the mood toward the electoral process among Black voters. The more voters feel like their votes don't count, the less likely they are to vote, the report found. And among Black voters, the report found, their sense of their own political power has waned significantly. In one state — Georgia, where Black voters helped propel Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock into office — the dip was by 27 percent. The biggest drop-off was the engagement of millennial voters overall and Black men of all ages. "Millennials, like Black men, feel like they are being ignored," said Terrance Woodbury, the CEO of HIT Strategies, in a briefing with reporters Monday afternoon. "They don't feel like this is a body politic that is representative or working for them." Demonstrators hold up signs during a live performance by the organization Long Live GoGo at a voting rights protest outside the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Headquarters, Aug. 26, 2021 in Washington, D.C. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Woodbury points to the estimated 20 percent of Black men that supported Donald Trump in the 2020 election, but adds that the "Trump bump" that year was present in down-ballot races as well, including in the North Carolina Senate race between Cunningham and incumbent GOP Sen. Thom Tillis.  While men across all ethnic groups tend to be more conservative than women, there is something unique about the continual drift of Black men toward the Republican Party, he said. "The difference here, and why these Black men are so critical, is that they were once Democratic voters, they were once voting and 97 percent [for Democrats]," Woodbury said. Without that level of support, he adds, Black candidates, particularly Democrats running at the top of the ticket, may have difficulty in the general election. "Black men … prioritize things like economic prosperity, and so we need to be able to point to concrete examples of where policies have actually improved the economic prosperity of the community," said Phaedra Jackson, director of national campaigns for the NAACP. A presentation to the report's slide deck can be found here.   THE POLITICS OF NIA LONG Nia Long arrives at the Essence Black Women In Hollywood Awards on Thursday, March 24, 2022, at the Beverly Wilshire Hotel in Beverly Hills, Calif. | Mark Von Holden/Invision/AP The saga surrounding the seasonlong suspension of Boston Celtics head coach Ime Udoka — for what has been reported as a consensual relationship he had with a female staffer — set the sports world and the internet aflame. The political world, too, was no exception. The reason, of course, stems from Udoka's longtime fiancée, actress Nia Long, best known for her starring roles in "The Best Man" and "Love Jones." Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), in an attempt to show support for Long, got roasted on social media for this unexpected take on the touchy situation. Naturally, Twitter users had a field day — because who could resist tweeting back at a congressman? Especially one they view as trying to shoot his shot with the beautiful thespian. Some users posted memes asking Bowman "do you work on that shot," while another photoshopped an image of Long onto a floor chart accompanying Bowman in the House chamber. Bowman quickly hopped back on the bird app to post a picture of himself cheesing with his wife. As my colleague Nancy Vu reported last week, Bowman is the only member of Congress to weigh in on the NBA drama.   ICYMI @ POLITICO Governor battlegrounds and abortion — Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June, Democrats have dropped large sums of money, nearly $34 million, on television ads that mention abortion this cycle, according to an analysis by POLITICO's Zach Montellaro and Megan Messerly. By contrast, they found Republican candidates running for governor spent roughly $1.1 million in similar television ads. WATCH: Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the chamber's top Republican, praises Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, the Arizona Democrat who at times has been a thorn in the side of her own party. Air DeSantis likely won't be grounded — Despite Democrats' outrage at Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis flying migrants to liberal enclaves as publicity stunts, POLITICO's Oriana Pawlyk reports those flights will likely continue because the FAA has little authority to stop them.   THE RECAST RECOMMENDS "The End of the Digital Divide?" — Join me in person or virtually on Thursday, Sept. 29, for POLITICO's AI and Tech Summit. I'll be co-moderating with reporter Rebecca Kern on whether the $65 billion broadband investment in the Biden administration's landmark infrastructure law can close the gap between the haves and have-nots of internet access. Panelists include: Gov. Andy Beshear (D-Ky.), Kevin Gallagher of the Commerce Department, Joi O. Chaney of the National Urban League and Jonathan Spalter of USTelecom. Sign up and send us your questions! Nigerian American comic Yvonne Orji of "Insecure" fame is back with another HBO comedy special, "Yvonne Orji: A Whole Me," debuting on Oct. 1. Newly minted besties Madonna and Dominican rapera Tokischa make out like crazy in their new single, "Hung Up On Tokischa."   You might think you know everything there is to know about the late, great Sidney Poitier. This fascinating documentary of his life, "Sidney," executive produced by Oprah Winfrey and directed by Reginald Hudlin , will disabuse you of that notion. Diego Luna is the rebel hero Cassian Andor, in "Star Wars: Andor," the prequel to "Rogue One: A Star Wars Story." It's streaming now on Disney+. The dead are ever present in Namwali Serpell's mind-blowing new novel "The Furrows." Rauw Alejandro and reggaeton maestro Baby Rasta take to the future — the year 2077, to be exact — in their new space age single, "Punto 40." TikTok of the Day: A Snoop Dogg vocabulary lesson.   Follow us on Twitter Brakkton Booker @brakktonbooker Rishika Dugyala @rishikadugyala Teresa Wiltz @teresawiltz   Follow us

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