Finland knows Putin’s mobilization can’t save him

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Sep 23, 2022 View in browser   By Alexander Ward and Lawrence Ukenye Russian men ordered into service will train for about 15 days, hardly enough time to professionalize them. Even if it were enough, it's unclear who Russia has left to train them. | Alexandr Kulikov/AP Photo With help from Maggie Miller  Subscribe here | Email Alex HELSINKI, Finland — Take it from Finland, a country that knows the ins and outs of mass mobilization more than just about anyone: Russia's partial and rushed military buildup will be a disaster. In the event of wartime, Finland has well-laid plans to boost its military ranks with conscription . Most men and some women maintain their readiness by training in the reserves after mandatory military service. Essentially, a large portion of the population is ready to fight tonight if, say, Russians stream over the 830-mile-long border with the soon-to-be NATO member. So when senior Finnish officials consider VLADIMIR PUTIN's move to boost his forces by 300,000, the big question is: really? Russian men ordered into service will train for about 15 days, hardly enough time to professionalize them. Even if it were enough, it's unclear who Russia has left to train them. The country's NCO and officer corps are decimated after seven months of war. And protests have sprung up in Moscow and St. Petersburg against the mobilization, leading NatSec Daily to wonder if Russia can even get 30,000 to show up for duty. Finnish border guards are noticing an uptick in traffic, though it's still not beyond the ordinary weekend or vacation flow. For now, Helsinki said it won't stop Russians from fleeing into Finland, giving them access to the European Union. A senior Finnish defense official said it would take "months" for Russia to complete its mobilization, and during that long period "there's a huge risk of failure. War has not shown its face in the big cities, but now it will." That's the bad news for Putin in the short term. The bad news for the West is that the same Finnish officials say Russia will learn from its errors in Ukraine and, over time, correct them to the detriment of broader Europe. "If there's another operation in five years' time, they're not going to make the same mistakes," the official stated. Plus, Finnish officials hasten to note, Russia still has aerial, naval and missile forces at its disposal. Putin is down — way down — but he's not out. And that was the main takeaway from your host's four-day trip in Northeast Europe, organized and sponsored by the German Marshall Fund of the United States. All the news about Ukraine's advances, about Russia's woes, about Western unity — it's fed a sense of near-term optimism that has countries such as Finland and Latvia dreaming of a world without Putin. But no official even hinted at complacency. If anything, they're settling in for the long haul. There will be more civilian atrocities and calls for continued European support. The winters will be brutal and feature only small tactical victories for either side. There's some light, yes, but much darkness lies ahead.   SIGN UP FOR CEPA FORUM 2022. Between September 27-29, the Center for European Policy Analysis will host an engaging series of discussions focusing on how Europe and North America can respond to Russia's war in Ukraine and its implications for security and democracy. RSVP NOW .     The Inbox U.S. PRIVATE WARNINGS TO RUSSIA: For months, the U.S. has been sending private warnings to Moscow about the consequences of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, The Washington Post's PAUL SONNE and JOHN HUDSON reported . The Biden administration has been intentionally vague about how the U.S. would respond, a nuclear deterrence strategy designed to keep the Kremlin wary of testing Washington. Putin has repeatedly threatened to deploy nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but his televised address on Wednesday took a different tone when he warned the West that he wasn't bluffing. U.S. officials fear that Russia may deploy a tactical nuclear weapon to halt Ukrainian gains. The move would signal an "escalate to de-escalate" strategy as Ukrainian and Western officials would need to carefully and strategically choose how to respond to nuclear weapons being used in anger for the first time since World War II, possibly forcing them to relent to prevent further escalation that could spiral out of control. UKRAINE REFERENDUMS: Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine have begun participating in referendums to join Russia, CNN reported. Kyiv and Western countries have deemed the elections as shams, claiming that the Kremlin will use the referendums as pretext to be more aggressive as Ukrainian forces would be attacking what Russia alleges is its own territory. The elections were called by pro-Russian groups in self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk as well as regions in southern Ukraine, which collectively comprise nearly a fifth of the country's territory. The efforts likely go hand-in-hand with Putin's orders to call up 300,000 reservists as Moscow searches for ways to halt Ukraine's counteroffensive fueled by U.S. support. The European Union has also already vowed not to recognize the territories and is preparing a new sanctions package against Russia. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: It's baaaack! After a break dictated by ugly world events, we're ready to learn more about top D.C. power players' favorite drinks and places to drink them. We dive back in with Sen. JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. The lawmaker likes to unwind with a margarita from Lindo Michoacán in Henderson, Nevada. Why, we asked? "Lindo Michoacán is a Nevada institution. As for their margaritas, you just have to drink one to find out." We look forward to receiving our invite to join you for a fiesta, senator! IT'S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @alexbward. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95 and @Lawrence_Ukenye. A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security. Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more.   Flashpoints U.N. SAYS RUSSIA COMMITTED WAR CRIMES: A U.N.-led investigation found that Russian troops committed crimes including rape, torture and executions in areas they occupied in Ukraine, announced ERIK MOSE, who leads the commission conducting the investigation, Reuters' EMMA FARGE reported. The Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, part of the Human Rights Council, visited regions throughout Ukraine and spoke to more than 150 victims and witnesses in Kyiv and Kharkiv. Mose announced that the victims' ages ranged from 4 to 82, and the commission discovered bodies with gunshot wounds, slit throats and tied hands. Russia has repeatedly denied accusations of human rights violations and asserted that efforts by the U.S. and other Western countries to hold Moscow accountable amount to a smear campaign. Ukraine and other countries have also urged the U.N. to investigate a mass burial site discovered in Izyum, a city recently liberated from Russian control.   SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.     Keystrokes TOXIC TEAMWORK — Certain hacktivist teams are working with the Russian government to launch cyberattacks against Ukrainian targets, Google's Mandiant cybersecurity group found in a report published Friday, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. Mandiant researchers assessed with "moderate confidence" that the moderators of three Telegram channels that direct cyberattacks as part of activist efforts are coordinating attacks with Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate, or GRU. The groups are involved in leaking data that Mandiant assesses was stolen from Ukrainian targets by GRU hackers, at times within 24 hours of an attack. Some of the data leaked included military and domestic policy documents. These findings echo a warning by a top Ukrainian official this month that the Russian military is working with cyber criminals to attack Ukraine. Mandiant noted that the Security Service of Ukraine, along with cybersecurity company Trellix, contributed to the report. "We have never previously observed such a volume of cyberattacks, variety of threat actors, and coordination of effort within the same several months," Mandiant researchers wrote. The attacks mark the latest efforts by Russia to use cyber operations as part of its invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities blamed Russia for attacks prior to the February invasion that afflicted government websites, along with attacks on a key satellite company that hampered military communications and an unsuccessful attack in April on the Ukrainian energy sector. More attacks are expected by Ukrainian officials as Russia surges troops into the country, particularly against Ukrainian energy and financial organizations. PENTAGON LAUNCHES CRYPTO REVIEW: The Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is set to hire Inca Digital to investigate the impact of cryptocurrency on national security, The Washington Post's TONY NEWMYER reported.  MARK FLOOD , the program's director, wants to use the partnership to assess how the financial sector can be used as a means of warfare and how potential attacks could affect U.S. allies. The Complex RAYTHEON WINS HYPERSONIC CONTRACT: The Air Force on Thursday awarded Raytheon Technologies a $985 million contract to build a hypersonic cruise missile, beating out Lockheed Martin and Boeing, our own LEE HUDSON reported. The Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile program will now incorporate Raytheon's design after the missile enters a review phase that involves extensive ground and flight testing. The missiles will be launched from bombers and fighter jets and utilize air-breathing propulsion, unlike the Air Force's AGM-183A program Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon awarded to Lockheed Martin. On the Hill LAWMAKERS CALL FOR STARLINK IN IRAN: Reps. CLAUDIA TENNEY (R-N.Y.) and TOM MALINOWSKI (D-N.J.) penned a letter to Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN urging the Department of Treasury to take steps to support internet freedom in Iran following protests in response to the death of MAHSA AMINI. "We won't know what is going on in Iran if Iranians don't have access to the internet," Malinowski said. "Iranians are taking to the street demanding justice for Mahsa, and we need to do our part to ensure that Iranians remain connected to the outside world." The letter urged the department to help deploy ELON MUSK's Starlink satellite internet service, as the SpaceX founder has expressed his desire to provide the service but would need the Treasury's support. Iran curbed access to WhatsApp and Instagram following protests that have engulfed the country following Amini's death in police custody.     Broadsides CHINA CRACKS DOWN ON CORRUPTION: China sentenced a former deputy police minister to death following corruption charges that highlight Beijing's increased anti-graft crackdown, the Associated Press reported. SUN LIJUN , the officer sentenced, was involved in efforts that included manipulating the stock market and taking bribes. Sun had also been charged by the Justice Department for trying to work with a Las Vegas casino mogul to block citizenship for a man who Beijing wanted returned to China to face corruption charges. Transitions — A different kind of transition today: ERIK BRATTBERG, senior vice president at the Albright Stonebridge Group, took the oath of citizenship this week during a ceremony just steps from the White House. "After almost 15 years living here, I'm very proud and excited to finally truly be able to call America my home," he wrote on LinkedIn . Congrats and welcome, Erik! What to Read — ANNA NEMTSOVA, The Atlantic: 'An Army of Zombies Is Leading Us to Hell' — LAWRENCE FREEDMAN, Foreign Affairs: All the Tsar's Men — SUMIT GANGULY, Foreign Policy: Why Did Modi Push Back on Putin? Monday Today — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9:30 a.m.: "Still Fit for Purpose? The UN in the Aftermath of Russia's Invasion in Ukraine." — The Middle East Institute,10 a.m.: "Iran's ISIS Challenge in Afghanistan." — The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: "How Firm is European Support for Ukraine?" — The Middle East Institute, 1 p.m.: Defense Leadership Series: Episode 18 with former U.S. CENTCOM Commander Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie — The Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: "U.S. Role in the NATO Alliance."  Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who we will miss terribly as we wish him all the best at the Washington Post. A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security. Lockheed Martin is helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating our digital transformation. That means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins so you can anticipate maintenance and reduce downtime. It means deep knowledge of your missions. It means industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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