How women are reshaping the 2022 Senate map

Your definitive guide to women, politics and power.

Sep 09, 2022 View in browser   By Katelyn Fossett Good morning, rulers. Queen Elizabeth II died yesterday after seven decades on the throne. Check out a photo gallery of her with U.S. presidents over those years. I'm also partial to this article by a former POLITICO Magazine intern, Ella Creamer, a U.K. native, about how King Charles will be received very differently in the U.S. from how Queen Elizabeth was. Thanks to Maya Parthasarathy for your help with this newsletter every week. Republican Senate candidates appear to be getting more and more concerned about losing women voters this fall. POLITICO reporter Natalie Allison recently took a close look at two indications that GOP candidates in Senate races are worried that the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision could be turning female voters away from the party. "One after the other, Republican nominees in top Senate battlegrounds have softened, backpedaled and sought to clarify their abortion positions after the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade," Allison wrote. "Another [sign] is that male candidates have begun putting their wives in front of the camera to speak directly to voters in new television ads." The change in tactics is a departure from years in which the conventional wisdom in politics was that abortion wasn't enough of a deciding factor in how people voted. That's clearly changed, though, as women's voter registration has surged ahead of men's in crucial states in recent months and after a Wall Street Journal poll was released last week showing that abortion was the single issue most likely to drive respondents to vote in November. Read the full POLITICO article by Allison to hear more about what strategists in a wide array of states are thinking about how the post-Dobbs landscape could torpedo — or not — Republican chances in the fall. I called the author to talk a little bit more about the takeaways, and what we still don't know about how all of this might play out in November. This conversation has been condensed and edited. Katelyn Fossett: Can you briefly explain how the Senate map looks different now than it did pre-Roe? Natalie Allison: Well, now, we are in the post-primary phase of the midterms, with the exception of New Hampshire, where Republican voters will choose a nominee on Tuesday. And before the Dobbs decision, we were still pre-primary. But that's also a part of this. Before Dobbs , in several cases, Republican candidates were still trying to get out of their primaries. And we were seeing conversations in these states among those candidates about how anti-abortion they were, and they were having to prove their anti-abortion credentials to voters to make it out of that primary. So now they're in a position where they have to speak to a general election audience, and no longer just the primary voters, who are obviously much more anti-abortion than the general-election crowd. That's part of why we're seeing such a change in rhetoric from before the Supreme Court decision to now. Those Republicans who survived their primaries, largely running on anti-abortion platforms, are now having to appeal to a wider audience of voters, many of whom are concerned about the idea that a right to an abortion is no longer guaranteed in some places. And that includes, in particular, suburban women. Fossett: So that seems to be the demographic of women that Republican candidates are most concerned about, right? Allison: The women they're concerned about in particular are those who shifted toward [Virginia Governor] Glenn Youngkin last year. The suburban mothers. The ones who — depending on the election cycle, and whether we're talking pre-Trump or post-Trump — the women who could actually switch their vote. They could support Republican candidates, or, in the case of 2018, they were women who were angry about the rise of Trump and got in line behind Democrats. And then, as we saw after the election of President Joe Biden, and continued school closures and concerns about their children's education, these same women found their way back to the Republican Party in a place like Virginia. And these are the women who, more so than very young women, could be persuaded to switch their vote. It's not necessarily the young Gen Z or millennial women, who are going to tend to support the Democratic Party anyway. It's the moms and women in the suburbs. Fossett: Is there any concern — or hope — that the actual results of elections will look different? That people are saying in polls that they will support Democrats, perhaps because of abortion, but they will actually support Republicans when Election Day comes? Allison: Yes. We've seen in recent cycles that polling does not tell the full story. It is a very real possibility that women who are saying now that abortion is really important face two more months of inflation and high consumer costs and could decide, at the end of the day, they're not willing to support the Democratic Party right now, regardless of their feelings about abortion. There's also this idea among the consultant class that people who are really partisan will always come back home later in the election cycle. So maybe it seems like there is this window of time where they're considering moving over or being a swing voter, but they would say history shows many of these people come Election Day are going to go back to where they usually are. I think in the case of the suburban women voters, they're just a voting bloc that has shown that they sometimes really get moved from party to party in a way that maybe some of the other demographics don't. There's still this question of, will abortion drive voters to turn out based on the idea that they want to protect abortion rights? That remains to be seen. But history has shown us that men running for Senate in Republican states have lost their races because they said something that was really off-putting to the average person. So thinking about Todd Akin in Missouri or Richard Mourdock in Indiana. These are candidates whose comments about abortion, and about not supporting exceptions for rape, appear to have ultimately cost them their elections. MARK YOUR CALENDARS — Leading from the Ground Up: Women Remaking Communities: Join POLITICO's Women Rule on Thursday Sept. 15, 2022, at 1:00 pm for conversations focused on creating and leading sustainable, healthy and inclusive communities. In our keynote interview, POLITICO national political reporter Elena Schneider  will speak with Jennifer Klein, director of the White House Gender Policy Council. Our Member Exchange panel, featuring Women Rule: The Exchange Business and Impact leaders, will focus on boosting gender and racial health equity in our communities. Register here: https://womenrule915.splashthat.com/Newsletters   Sponsored by Business Leader members of Women Rule: The Exchange: As inflation rates soar and disruptions to the global supply chain persist, all eyes are on the nation's economic recovery. But getting back on track in an inclusive and sustainable way is no easy feat. POLITICO Focus connected with members of Women Rule: The Exchange to learn about the strategies and solutions that will power an economy that benefits all. Join the Conversation.   POLITICO Special Report AP Photo/Michael Dwyer, File "Healey inches toward historic first in Massachusetts as progressives get steamrolled," by Lisa Kashinsky for POLITICO: "Alaska. Oklahoma. Texas. Arizona. Kansas. Iowa. They've all beat Massachusetts — which prides itself on its progressivism — to electing a female governor. "But Massachusetts is now poised to join the club, and make more history along the way — one of several big results from Tuesday's primaries, which also saw the Democratic Party's activist left fail in a bid to elevate its candidates. "Attorney General Maura Healey is the overwhelming favorite in a general-election matchup that pits the progressive prosecutor, who burnished her profile by repeatedly suing former President Donald Trump's administration, against Geoff Diehl, a conservative backed by the former president. Massachusetts is one of Democrats' best hopes to flip a governorship this fall while Diehl's nomination fuels concerns about Republican electability in the region as New Hampshire voters cast ballots in their primary next week. "Healey, if she wins, would also be the state's first openly gay female governor. And she will run for governor on a two-woman ticket with Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll, who cruised through her three-way Democratic primary for the No. 2 spot on Tuesday — setting up Massachusetts as one of three states that may elect women to both offices this year at the same time. In Arkansas, Republicans nominated Sarah Huckabee Sanders for governor and Leslie Rutledge for lieutenant governor. And in Ohio, Democrats are running Nan Whaley and Cheryl Stephens." "Super PAC spends in bid to elect Rhode Island's first Latina governor," by Marissa Martinez for POLITICO … " Democratic attorneys general candidates rake in donations post-Roe," by Alice Miranda Ollstein for POLITICO … "South Carolina Republicans advance abortion bill to Senate floor without exceptions for incest, rape," by Myah Ward for POLITICO Number of the Week Read more here.   Sponsored by Business Leader members of Women Rule: The Exchange: In the Round: A conversation with today's leaders.   MUST READS AP Photo/Jerome Delay, File "Studies of autism tend to exclude women, researchers find," by Anne Trafton for MIT News: "In recent years, researchers who study autism have made an effort to include more women and girls in their studies. However, despite these efforts, most studies of autism consistently enroll small numbers of female subjects or exclude them altogether, according to a new study from MIT. "The researchers found that a screening test commonly used to determine eligibility for studies of autism consistently winnows out a much higher percentage of women than men, creating a 'leaky pipeline' that results in severe underrepresentation of women in studies of autism. This lack of representation makes it more difficult to develop useful interventions or provide accurate diagnoses for girls and women, the researchers say. "'I think the findings favor having a more inclusive approach and widening the lens to end up being less biased in terms of who participates in research,' says John Gabrieli, the Grover Hermann Professor of Health Sciences and Technology and a professor of brain and cognitive sciences at MIT. 'The more we understand autism in men and women and nonbinary individuals, the better services and more accurate diagnoses we can provide.' … "'The way we think about it is that the field evolved perhaps an implicit bias in how autism is defined, and it was driven disproportionately by analysis of males, and recruitment of males, and so on,' Gabrieli says. 'So, the definition doesn't fit as well, on average, with the different expression of autism that seems to be more common in females.' "This implicit bias has led to documented difficulties in receiving a diagnosis for girls and women, even when their symptoms are the same as those presented by autistic boys and men." "'Strong over skinny': Women powerlifters ditch stigma around bulking up," by Samantha Chery for the Washington Post : "Sasha Stein's exercise journey started a way many women can relate to: with an underused gym membership and a weight-loss goal. Now, the only number she focuses on is the amount she can powerlift. "Now more than ever, women are hitting the gym and heading straight to the weight racks. No longer fazed by the stigma that women can get too bulky from lifting weights, women powerlifters see the sport as a physical and mental salve. Those who have fallen in love with powerlifting — a slower version of weightlifting, often with heavier weights — say they feel stronger and more poised, regardless of their size. "Stein, 24, started exercising at Gainesville Health & Fitness in Florida, which was where her friend Lauren Wall, an online personal trainer, introduced her to the world of powerlifting. Wall loved to lift and explained to Stein how powerlifting could change her life, and how she'd lose fat and gain muscle through the activity. But she wouldn't have to worry about having more muscle than desired, Wall reassured her, because bulking up happens intentionally. And she wouldn't be alone: The support of a growing legion of powerlifting women would transform her mentally, too." "'The Woman King' and Intimate Moments Amid Epic Action," by Farah Fleurima for the New York Times   A WOMEN RULE CONVERSATION ON LEADING FROM THE GROUND UP: Join POLITICO's Women Rule on Sept. 15 for conversations focused on creating and leading sustainable, healthy and inclusive communities. The program will feature a Member Exchange panel followed by a keynote discussion exploring the most pressing issues facing women in their communities and women in leadership roles who are best positioned to solve these problems. REGISTER HERE.     Quote of the Week  Read more here. Transitions Natalye Paquin will be COO at the Rockefeller Foundation. She previously was president and CEO at Points of Light. … Marta Dehmlow Hernandez is now senior director of comms at the Aerospace Industries Association. Most recently, she was communications director for the Senate Armed Services GOP. … Kathy O'Neill is now a partner with Cooley LLP's D.C. office. Previously, she was senior director of investigations and litigation with DOJ's Antitrust Division. … (h/t Playbook) Meredith Hoing is now media relations manager at Corning. Most recently, she was director for earned media at Edelman Global Advisory. … Shayla Ragimov is now director of carbon management at Boundary Stone Partners. She previously was manager of research at the Climate Leadership Council. (h/t Playbook)   Sponsored by Business Leader members of Women Rule: The Exchange: As inflation rates soar and disruptions to the global supply chain persist, all eyes are on the nation's economic recovery. But getting back on track in an inclusive and sustainable way is no easy feat. Today, women are still finding themselves disproportionately affected by pervasive inequities when it comes to leadership, wages, and skills-building. Bridging these profound gender 'gaps' will be paramount to the country's ability to achieve sustained growth for the future. But where do we start? POLITICO Focus sat down with members of Women Rule: The Exchange to answer this very question. Click here to see what leaders had to say about the strategies and solutions that will power an economy that benefits all.     Follow us on Twitter Katelyn Fossett @KatelynFossett   Follow us

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