Is Ian Florida's 'big, sloppy' nightmare?

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Sep 26, 2022 View in browser   By Adam Aton Presented by National Clean Energy Week Hurricane Ian approaches Batabanó, Cuba, on Monday. | AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa Potential disaster in the form of Hurricane Ian is bearing down on Florida — just the latest example of 2022 testing the nation's resilience to extreme weather and the effects of climate change. The storm's future path and strength remain somewhat unsettled. But the National Weather Service is warning that one potential landing zone, Tampa Bay, could face catastrophic impacts including 5 to 10 feet of storm surge, buildings "washing away" and flooded escape routes. "This could be the storm that we hoped would never come to our shores," Ken Welch, the mayor of St. Petersburg in Pinellas County, said in a news conference today. Mandatory evacuations have already started up and down Florida's Gulf Coast, even as Ian still churned south of Cuba. From droughts to wildfires to extreme heat, this year has already tested U.S. resilience to extreme weather. But hurricanes had been the outlier, with none making landfall in the U.S. until Hurricane Fiona struck Puerto Rico on Sept. 18. Ian — projected to peak as a Category 4 hurricane in the southeastern Gulf by early Wednesday, though possibly weakening before reaching Florida — could be the most challenging test yet. Tampa Bay counts among the most vulnerable areas in Florida. Though it hasn't taken a direct hurricane hit since the 1940s, the region's geography and densely populated coast expose it to storm surges and flooding. Modeling commissioned by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council suggests a major storm could paralyze the region for months or longer. Even a smaller storm could wreak havoc. About one in five buildings in Pinellas County risks flooding from a "big, sloppy" Category 1 or 2 hurricane, according to an analysis by the Tampa Bay Times. Ian is especially worrisome because forecasters expect it to slow down as it approaches land, dumping rain over a fixed area where the ground is already soggy. That's on top of the possibility of widespread power outages. Past hurricanes have left some Floridians without power for weeks. Ian isn't the only worry. The state's property insurance market is in free fall three decades after taking a beating from Hurricane Andrew, with six insurance companies declaring bankruptcy this year — the most recent coming this month, according to the News Service of Florida. That has led Florida residents to crowd into the state-created insurer of last resort for their homeowners' policies, E&E News' Thomas Frank writes, creating the worst, most-expensive insurance market in the country. One big caveat: It's way too soon to focus on specific locations where the storm may land. Though the stretch from Fort Myers to Tampa Bay faces the greatest danger, Ian's potential wind swath, rainfall and flash flooding risk cover such huge territory that millions of people need to pay attention. Florida's Division of Emergency Management has more. It's Monday — Thank you for tuning into POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host today, Adam Aton. Arianna will be back soon! Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to aaton@eenews.net Today in POLITICO Energy's podcast: Catherine Morehouse takes a look inside Sen. Joe Manchin's (D-W.Va.) permitting bill, which would add muscular new powers to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Listen to today's POLITICO Energy podcast   A message from National Clean Energy Week: Save the date for the 6th annual National Clean Energy Week (NCEW), September 26-30! NCEW celebrates the policies, industries, and innovations that power our daily lives while reducing emissions. Ready to join the national clean energy conversation? REGISTER for the VIRTUAL Policy Makers Symposium on September 27-29! Join us to hear from legislators, industry leaders, and clean energy advocates alike! Thanks to NCEW sponsors, registration is 100% FREE for all attendees! Register for FREE here.   This Is Climate Change A green shield bug walks on flowers in a garden in Brixton on Oct. 10, 2012, in London, England. | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images Stink bug territory could grow 70 percent thanks to warming temperatures, according to modeling research published in the peer-reviewed journal Pest Management Science. Those foul-smelling pests threaten more than just ambiance. The brown marmorated stink bug, an invasive species originating in Asia, is a generalist herbivore that eats crops as well as other plants important for ecosystems and economies. Fifteen states already consider them a pest. As temperatures warm, researchers expect them to expand farther along the mid-Atlantic, around the Great Lakes and in the valleys of the West, such as Idaho's Treasure Valley. "Every system will change with climate change, so the fact that you can grow garbanzo beans, lentils or wheat without these pests now, doesn't mean that you will not have them in a few years," study lead author Javier Gutierrez Illan, a Washington State University entomologist, told WSU Insider. Power Centers EPA Administrator Michael Regan. | @EPAMichael Regan/Twitter Office hours  EPA is creating an office for environmental justice, elevating the issue to the same level as air quality, water pollution and other core agency missions, writes Kelsey Brugger. With an expected staff of 200, the office will focus on enforcing civil rights and offering technical assistance to communities dealing with pollution. For starters, it's expected to administer a $3 billion environmental justice block grant program from the Inflation Reduction Act. Activists hope the new office marks a turnaround for the Biden administration's environmental justice agenda, which has bogged down amid congressional negotiations and regulatory delays. Math problems Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is whipping GOP lawmakers against Manchin's permitting reform bill, write Burgess Everett and Caitlin Emma. Manchin needs to lock down 60 votes to advance the proposal — and with some Democrats already signaling opposition, he'll likely need more than 10 Republicans to break ranks. But most GOP senators see little reason to give Manchin a win after he provided the key vote for President Joe Biden's signature climate bill. "It would appear the senior senator from West Virginia traded his vote on a massive liberal boondoggle in exchange for nothing," McConnnell said, adding that Manchin should instead support a permitting bill by Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.). Pipe dreams  Landowners are asking the Supreme Court to limit pipeline companies' ability to acquire private property, writes Niina H. Farah. Landowners in the path of the Mountain View natural gas pipeline are trying to use a similar argument that the Supreme Court outlined earlier this year to curtail EPA's regulatory power. Rather than directly challenge the pipeline, the landowners are challenging FERC's ability to delegate its eminent domain authority to pipeline developers. Question Corner The science, policy and politics driving the energy transition can feel miles away. But we're all affected on an individual and communal level — from hotter days and higher gas prices to home insurance rates and food supply. Want to know more? Send us your questions with "Question Corner " in the subject line. In Other News An endangered North Atlantic right whale entangled in fishing rope near Cumberland Island, Ga. | Georgia Department of Natural Resources/NOAA Permit #20556 via AP All gone to mud: The dangers of California's wildfires continue long after the flames die down, with burned landscapes susceptible to deadly mudslides. Whale of a problem : Ship strikes are a leading cause of death for whales, many of whom spend their life near the surface. A new venture aims to use artificial intelligence to steer fleets around the marine mammals.   A message from National Clean Energy Week:   Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. The Biden administration released a detailed outline for the development of sustainable aviation fuel. | AP Photo/Hassan Ammar The Biden administration outlined new steps to cut jet fuel's climate pollution, as the U.S. turns to one of the most notoriously difficult sectors to decarbonize. Mississippi's failing water system could stay broken under the state's plan to spend federal infrastructure money, civil rights advocates say, pointing to the state's proposed funding caps for loan forgiveness. Western nations must pay for climate damage in developing countries, Germany's climate negotiator said , setting up a key clash before this year's global climate conference. That's it for today, folks. Thanks for reading!   A message from National Clean Energy Week: Are you ready to join the national clean energy conversation? Save the date for the 6th annual National Clean Energy Week (NCEW), September 26-30 and REGISTER for the VIRTUAL Policy Makers Symposium on September 27-29! Tune in to hear from legislators, industry leaders, and clean energy advocates like YOU— thanks to NCEW sponsors, registration is 100% completely FREE for all attendees! NCEW is a weeklong celebration of the policies, industries, and innovations that power our daily lives while reducing emissions. Join us to recognize what an all-of-the-above clean energy future can bring: American energy independence, economic prosperity, & a healthier climate. Register for FREE here.     Follow us on Twitter Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell   Follow us

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