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Russia under threat as Ukraine redefines victory

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Sep 12, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Ryan Heath

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Happening Today

RUSSIA ON THE BACKFOOT

Ukrainian forces have swept through key parts of formerly occupied territory, severing key Russian supply lines and bringing the front line close to Donetsk, which Russia has occupied since 2014.

Ukraine's chief commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, said the armed forces had regained control of more than 1,000 square miles in the past week, reversing five months of Russian gains.

Moscow doesn't have any good conventional military options , so appears to be resorting to flat out terrorism and retaliatory strikes on civilian targets, including by destroying the biggest electricity generation plant in Kharkiv. The results: a blackout for hospitals, houses, refrigerators, water and sewage systems.

"Russia's apparent response to Ukraine liberating cities and villages in the east: sending missiles to attempt to destroy critical civilian infrastructure," said Bridget Brink, U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.

On the ground, "Russian troops are not fighting back," per Lt. Gen. Yevhen Moisiuk, the deputy commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces. That leads Anne Applebaum to conclude that "the fundamental difference between Ukrainian soldiers, who are fighting for their country's existence, and Russian soldiers, who are fighting for their salary, has finally begun to matter."

Reality check 1: You don't need many motivated soldiers to make a nuclear mess. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station is inside the battle zone. And Moscow has plenty of tactical nuclear weapons at its disposal.

Reality check 2: How many more Buchas will we discover ?

Ukrainian chess — Putin's problems multiply: Russian nationalists are starting to openly criticize the war effort on national television, including Vladimir Putin 's advisors and battlefield commanders. That's an inch away from attacking the Russian autocrat directly. Add to that the way Ukraine now defines victory: resumption of all its territory plus reparations from Moscow. That's incompatible with Putin remaining in power.

The West is therefore getting close to a difficult and complicated decision: If backing the Ukrainian advance means putting Putin in a life or death situation, what does that mean for global security?

SWEDEN'S KNIFE-EDGE ELECTION — FAR-RIGHT COMES IN FROM THE COLD

More than 90 percent of the vote is counted, and less than 1 percent separates right-wing and left-wing blocs in Sweden's parliamentary election.

The right-wing bloc, which now includes the previously isolated far-right Swedish Democrats is slightly ahead: on track for 176 seats compared to 173 for the group led by the ruling Social Democrats.

The Social Democrats will be the largest party: set to grow from 100 to 108 seats, but the Swedish Democrats have jumped from third to second: on track for 72 seats. POLITICO will continue to update the latest numbers here.

Sweden's radical right threatens the old order: Once former neo-Nazis, the Swedish Democrats insist they're just like the ruling British Conservatives.

European implications: If the Swedish Democrats join or lead a new government, three's a trend — we can officially declare a European right wave. Future history may show that started with Liz Truss' victory in Britain, extending to Giorgia Meloni taking over as Italian prime minister after a snap election Sept. 25. Sweden will also take over the European Union's rotating presidency in Jan. 2023.

ETHIOPIA — TIGRAYAN FORCES READY TO ACCEPT AFRICAN UNION PEACE PROCESS

 

THE U.K. HAS A NEW PRIME MINISTER. As a new face takes over leadership of the –Conservative Party in the U.K, what does this mean for the future of British politics? Catch up on all U.K. politics news with POLITICO's daily London Playbook newsletter. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.

 
 
GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

CHINA — BY THE NUMBERS: The Atlantic Council's Geoeconomics Center has run new numbers comparing China's post-Covid economic growth trajectory and expected U.S. growth rates. They're not the first to make the comparison with Japan's failure to catch up to the U.S. economy after a series of predictions that America was doomed in the 1970s and 1980s, but it's still startling to see it graphed out.

China's new economic trajectory does not guarantee it overtakes the U.S. by 2030

Atlantic Council

FLOODGATES OPEN ON SELF-RULE CAMPAIGNS

The number of republican campaigns in Commonwealth countries is growing, reports Maggie Miller, but so is the waiting list to join the Commonwealth.

The prime minister of Antigua and Barbuda, Gaston Browne, told Britain's ITV News on Sunday that he wants to hold a referendum on his country becoming a republic. Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness announced his country would seek to "become an independent" nation — during a visit by Prince William earlier this year, no less.

Australia now has a minister in charge of transitioning its constitution to a republican model, and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is deftly positioning his cause. The country's parliament is shutting down all week, and the Queen's funeral will be a public holiday: officially that's respectful. In practice it's a gentle reminder that a faraway institution is dictating Australian rhythms.

Albanese is also rewriting the history many Australians learned at school: "As prime minister, I'm not in a position to control people's feelings," he told the ABC's Insiders program, but noted: "This nation didn't begin in 1788 (when Britain established a penal colony in what is now Sydney) it goes back some 65,000 years at least. It should be a source of great national pride that we live and share this continent with the oldest continuous civilization and culture on Earth."

COLONIALISM AND THE COMMONWEALTH, REVISITED

One of the ways the monarchy might stave off successful republican campaigns is by shepherding a frank debate about the impacts of slavery and colonialism. King Charles made a speech in Rwanda earlier this year, while still heir to the throne, during the most recent Commonwealth heads of government meeting. He said that the "time has come" to discuss the impact of slavery and expressed "sorrow" over the practice but stopped short of a formal apology.

The Queen never went that far. While she did stand up to Margaret Thatcher over the British prime minister's reluctance to impose sanctions on Apartheid South Africa in the 1980s, as POLITICO editor Saim Saeed points out: " There was no apology, no regret, no shame, no reparation, no moral responsibility or reckoning by Queen Elizabeth II over the crimes that were committed in the crown's name."

Judah Grunstein makes the salient point that this is not going to be an easy debate. Queen Elizabeth "was the last living link to the British colonial era" and for many in the U.K., they're grieving not only her death, but also "the loss of national glory that went along with that era." In parallel, "for many (not all) in the postcolonial states that emerged from the empire, it serves as a reminder of the crimes committed."

More analysis: CNN | The Guardian

This isn't theory; it's money: Britain's already been forced into a $25 million payout to victims of torture and murder by Britain's colonial officials in Kenya during the Queen's reign in the 1950s. If that sort of court ruling happens again under King Charles, we can expect a bigger debate about its meaning. There were other violent suppressions of independence movements in Yemen and Cyprus.

Britain also backed Nigeria's military dictatorship in the 1960s — though the Commonwealth is supposed to promote democracy — as it murdered or caused the deaths by famine of a million people in Biafra. Former BBC correspondent and now author Frederick Forsyth recounts the violence here.

With the Queen gone, other voices will have to be listened to, and accounted for. If Britain can't do that with its former colonies (and France likewise) then the geopolitical winners could end up being China, Russia and the African Union. All the scenarios mean a world order that doesn't revolve around institutions like the British monarchy or American presidency.

What sort of leadership does the Commonwealth need? The Queen was the glue that held the network together, but there is also a lightly resourced secretariat running the ship in London, led by Baroness Patricia Scotland as Commonwealth secretary-general.

In another time, it would be tempting to parachute a top-tier and globally recognizable leader like New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern to revive the organization. But as the organization inevitably is forced to examine colonial era issues, a white leader may not be who is called for.

KING CHARLES — FACTS YOU DIDN'T SEE IN 'THE CROWN'

— The future king studied at Rupert Murdoch 's high school — Geelong Grammar — in rural Australia. He's remembered for his lack of pomp and confiscating cigarettes from younger students, while saving them the disgrace (and physical punishment) of telling the headmaster. Fellow student Jonathan Southey said "we used to hike many tens of miles regardless of the weather — but I never heard him complaining or failing to present himself for any challenge."

— Charles is the first British monarch to have earned a university degree: a Bachelor's Degree from Cambridge University. He also earned his Master's from the same university.

— He's the author of four books, plays the cello, has been a competitive amateur jockey and speaks Welsh.

— The king's preferred cars are an electric Jaguar and an Aston Martin he bought in 1970 that now runs on wine by-products.

TRUSSWORLD — BEHIND THE SCENES IN 10 DOWNING STREET: She has handed huge power to the civil servants. One close ally explained: "The good ones will be deeply empowered by her. The civil service are always in the ascendancy with Liz as long as they actually do their job."

PUTIN AND XI WELCOME IRAN TO ANTI-WEST CLUB

While many of us are busy watching Britain, the Shanghai Cooperation Group that meets this week in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

The group already includes India, China, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. In addition to Iran's entry, Turkey, a NATO member, is also considering joining (it's already an SCO "dialogue partner"). Saudi Arabia and Qatar are expected to become dialogue partners this week.

By the numbers: SCO has three times the population of NATO, more than double the number of military personnel and more nuclear warheads.

Read about Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the Uzbek leader with a reformist bent who is hosting the summit.

MODERN SLAVERY — NEW DATA SHOWS 50 MILLION TRAPPED WORLDWIDE: Walk Free, an NGO, and the United Nations' International Labor Organization and International Organization for Migration have released new global estimates of modern slavery. This the first global data set since 2017 and it shows 50 million people are trapped in forced labor or forced marriage. The source data includes interviews from 68 nationally representative forced labor surveys and 75 forced marriage surveys.

The big regulatory risk : Supply chains will come under increasing focus as campaigners work to identify who's profiting from modern slavery.

Backstory: From Fiona David, a modern slavery expert who helped engineer renewed interest in these problems.

CANADA — NEW CONSERVATIVE LEADER: Pierre Poilievre promises to reduce the role of the state and engage in bar-knuckle political fights with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau . When truckers rolled into Ottawa in January as part of an infamous Freedom Convoy, Poilievre recorded a supportive video on a bridge atop a freeway on the outskirts of the city. "Freedom, not fear," he shouted over the honking. "Truckers, not Trudeau." At just 43, he's already a seven-term member of parliament.

PERU — FOREIGN MINISTER RESIGNED, ADDING TO PRESIDENTIAL WOES: Peru's new foreign minister Miguel Rodriguez resigned after just a month, after public clashes between the official and leftist President Pedro Castillo. The country is onto its fourth prime minister in little more than a year.

 

On Wednesday, September 21, the McCourt Institute will host an exclusive event in NYC on "The Future of Digital Governance," to positively shape the next digital era and anticipate how tech will be regulated in the Web3 generation. It is part of the Unfinished Live festival and will feature transatlantic policymakers, academics, and other experts including Cedric O, Stefan Berger, Camille Canon, Jeremy West, Primavera de Filippi, Eric Salobir, POLITICO's Mark Scott and others for discussions on digital governance, the decentralized web, competition, privacy, content and more. Tune into the live stream beginning at 1:00 pm EST on September 21 on the McCourt Institute's website.

 
 
GLOBETROTTERS

SCOOP — VIP GUIDANCE FOR QUEEN FUNERAL: No private jets, no helicopters — and buses to Westminster Abbey.

CATCH UP WITH GLOBAL INSIDER 

VIDEO — IN CONVERSATION WITH MERIDIAN CENTER's PURU TRIVEDI 

PODCAST —  REMEMBERING THE QUEEN, WITH STEPHANIE RUHLE

JOIN GLOBAL INSIDER AND DAVID MALPASS AT UNGA: The World Bank president will talk about Tipping Points: Confronting Global Multiple Crises in a one-to-one interview, Thursday Sept. 22 at 10:30 a.m. ET. Register here.

From climate change to conflict, public health emergencies to public debt dangers: We face a gloomy outlook, but there are still options. So what can U.S. and world leaders do to alleviate these compounding crises and implement long-term solutions?

BRAIN FOOD

LONG READ: Secret Data, Tiny Islands and a Quest for Treasure on the Ocean Floor: how a tiny underfunded U.N. agency is managing the next sources of critical minerals needed for electric vehicles and the phone you're reading this on.

ARTICLE: China's reverse opium war: The massive fentanyl money laundering scheme that kills thousands. And how to fight it, by David Asher and Jaime Puerta.

INVESTIGATION: The Tragedy of North Birmingham, from ProPublica.

Thanks to editor Ben Pauker and producer Hannah Farrow

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