The dividing factor

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Sep 19, 2022 View in browser   By Madison Fernandez Presented by PREMION TOP LINE Some Republicans in battleground Senate races are looking to cast themselves as the uniting factor in comparison to Democrats, who they claim are using racism as a dividing tactic. These television ads attacking Democrats are appearing in races where the Democratic candidates are people of color — Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia, Rep. Val Demings in Florida and Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin. "Democrats use race to divide us," an ad from Georgia Republican Herschel Walker and the NRSC, released earlier this month , reads. That's followed by audio clips of Georgia Democratic gubernatorial contender Stacey Abrams, Vice President Kamala Harris, President Joe Biden and Warnock speaking about racism in America. Walker, who is Black, then appears on the screen, saying, "Sen. Warnock believes America is a bad country full of racist people. I believe we're a great country full of generous people. Warnock wants to divide us. I want to bring us together." In the race for Florida Senate, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio put out an ad cautioning that the "radical left will destroy America." "They allow illegal aliens and drugs to flood America," Rubio, whose parents are Cuban immigrants, continues. "And if you speak out, they ban you on social media and they call you a racist. Congresswoman Val Demings, she supports all of this." And in one of the many attack ads against Barnes, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) highlights comments Barnes made last summer on a local podcast featuring Black guests. In speaking about how outdoor brands are moving toward being more inclusive of Black consumers, he said: "It's important to create more welcoming spaces because things haven't always felt welcome. And that's historical, just that perspective, given the fact that national parks weren't made for the enjoyment of people who weren't white." "It's that time of year, and Mandela Barnes will run cutesy ads trying to convince you that he's not a radical leftist," the Johnson ad says. "Because here's the truth: Mandela Barnes thinks the founding of America was awful and our national parks are racist. … Mandela Barnes is too extreme for Wisconsin." Recent polling has shown Republicans with slight leads in Wisconsin and Florida, and Warnock has been polling ahead of Walker. In the overall midterm landscape, polling has shown Democrats maintaining a hold on voters of color compared to the GOP — although that lead is narrowing. A New York Times/Siena College poll over the weekend suggested the same trend among Hispanic voters. That shift of voters of color toward Republicans may be attributed to concerns about the economy and inflation, a dominant line of messaging for the GOP this cycle. Voters of color have been a key target demographic ahead of the midterm election for both parties. Republicans have invested millions of dollars to create minority community centers in states like Georgia, Pennsylvania and Texas. And Democratic groups have also put millions of dollars into mobilizing these constituents. The level of turnout among voters of color will have a big impact in these races. We'll see what difference these messaging decisions make, too. It's Monday, Sept. 19. There are seven weeks until Election Day. Funnily enough, I've also been at the helm of Score for seven weeks — say hi if you haven't already (tips and feedback are always appreciated!) at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the general election: 50 Days until the 2022 World Cup: 63 Days until the 2024 election: 778   A message from PREMION: For winning campaigns, every CTV impression counts With more and more voters cutting the cord, CTV is an essential media channel for engaging them. A new report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion helps political marketers navigate the increasingly fragmented and complex streaming TV marketplace and provides insights for effective planning and buying of CTV advertising. Download the complimentary report, Streaming TV and the Political Market: Navigating CTV Advertising in the 2022 Campaign Cycle here.   Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You'll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day's biggest stories. CAMPAIGN INTEL TO ACCEPT OR NOT TO ACCEPT — Six Republican nominees for Senate and governor would not commit to accepting this year's election results, according to a report from The New York Times' Reid J. Epstein. They include: — Ted Budd, running for Senate in North Carolina — Blake Masters, running for Senate in Arizona — Kelly Tshibaka, running for Senate in Alaska — J.D. Vance, running for Senate in Ohio — Tudor Dixon, running for governor in Michigan — Geoff Diehl, running for governor in Massachusetts … The Washington Post also conducted a similar survey , in which 12 Republican candidates either refused to commit or declined to respond: — Kari Lake, running for governor in Arizona — Ron DeSantis, running for governor in Florida — Derek Schmidt, running for governor in Kansas — Doug Mastriano, running for governor in Pennsylvania — Greg Abbott, running for governor in Texas — Tim Michels, running for governor in Wisconsin — Marco Rubio, running for Senate in Florida — Don Bolduc, running for Senate in New Hampshire — Ron Johnson, running for Senate in Wisconsin — Along with Dixon, Masters and Budd, as the NYT reported VOTING LAWSUITS — Republican-affiliated groups have filed 41 lawsuits since January — a jump from the number filed by such individuals and groups last year and in 2020, according to a report released Monday from the progressive group Democracy Docket . For the same time period in 2020 — Jan. 1 to Sept. 16 — they filed 13 lawsuits. In 2021, they filed seven election and voting lawsuits. The report projects that "we can expect to see an even greater number of election and voting lawsuits in the next month and a half before the 2022 midterm elections."   HAPPENING 9/29 - POLITICO'S AI & TECH SUMMIT : Technology is constantly evolving and so are the politics and policies shaping and regulating it. Join POLITICO for the 2022 AI & Tech summit to get an insider look at the pressing policy and political issues shaping tech, and how Washington interacts with the tech sector. The summit will bring together lawmakers, federal regulators, tech executives, tech policy experts and consumer advocates to dig into the intersection of tech, politics, regulation and innovation, and identify opportunities, risks and challenges ahead. REGISTER FOR THE SUMMIT HERE.     MIGRANT TRANSPORT — Gov. Ron DeSantis' decision to transport mostly Venezuelan migrants to Martha's Vineyard late last week could hurt the Republican governor in November with a key constituency that the GOP has sought to win over, POLITICO's Gary Fineout writes . Democrat Charlie Crist, who is challenging DeSantis, was quick to criticize his opponent on the move. "For him, it's always putting politics over people's lives," Crist said in a video posted to his social media accounts. "Lying to migrant children to lure them onto a plane to god knows where. … Mocking their fight for freedom, it makes me sick. But not surprising, because that's who he is." … Over the weekend, some politicians running in November weighed in on the situation. Joe O'Dea, the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado, said, "People call what he did cruel. You know, what's cruel is ignoring this issue. Democrats are ignoring it." And Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), who's running for reelection, said, "It does bring attention, but we want to focus more on solutions on the border." WAITING GAME — Some of the same issues with state law that caused the 2020 election results to drag out for days are still in play in key 2022 states, POLITICO's Zach Montellaro reports . And with the continued popularity of mail voting and state laws in Pennsylvania and elsewhere that can delay processing of those ballots, the chance of another waiting game is distinct — possibly with control of the Senate up in the air. TRUMP ON THE TRAIL — Former President Donald Trump on Saturday rallied for J.D. Vance in Ohio. Catch the recap from POLITICO's Craig Howie here . And of note: "Trump often seemed much more focused on his own electoral fortunes than Vance's, repeatedly teasing the possibility of his own run." J.D. Vance, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate for Ohio, is accompanied by former President Donald Trump as he speaks at a campaign rally in Youngstown, Ohio, on Sept. 17, 2022. | Tom E. Puskar/AP Photo CANCER-FREE — Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the Republican candidate for governor of Arkansas, underwent a successful surgery on Friday to remove her thyroid gland and surrounding lymph nodes after learning earlier this month that she had thyroid cancer. Sanders said she is now cancer-free. "I look forward to returning to the campaign trail soon," she said in a statement. "This experience has been a reminder that whatever battle you may be facing, don't lose heart. As governor, I will never quit fighting for the people of our great state." DEBATE UPDATE — In the race for Wisconsin Senate, Democrat Mandela Barnes and Republican incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson agreed to one televised debate. It will take place on Oct. 13 in Milwaukee. As the AP's Scott Bauer notes, "Typically, challengers like to debate incumbents as often as possible to raise their profile and get more earned media. It is unusual for an incumbent to agree to more debates than a challenger." Johnson has agreed to two other broadcast debates, and Barnes agreed to a forum. LONG READ — POLITICO's Holly Otterbein reports from Philadelphia on how gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro has made Judaism — and fighting antisemitism — central to his campaign. Holly writes: "If Shapiro can fend off the far-right firebrand, he would catapult into the position of one of the most prominent Jewish elected officials in the country — and be talked about within political circles as a future presidential or vice-presidential candidate. And he'd do it by being a new kind of Jewish politician. Unlike some before him, Shapiro hasn't downplayed his religion out of a fear of appearing different. To the contrary, he's made his faith — and fighting antisemitism — a central part of his political persona."   A message from PREMION:   POLL POSITION — Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is ahead of Republican challenger Scott Jensen 48-41, according to a MPR News/Star Tribune/KARE 11 poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy. Ten percent are undecided. (800 likely voters, Sept. 12-14, MoE +/- 3.5 percentage points.) — Republican candidate for Ohio Senate J.D. Vance is leading Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan 44-40, according to a poll from Emerson College. Thirteen percent are undecided. (1,000 very likely voters, Sept. 12-13, MoE +/-3 percentage points.) The poll also found Republican Gov. Mike DeWine leading Democrat Nan Whaley 50-33. Twelve percent are undecided. — In the race for New Hampshire Senate, incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan is leading Republican Don Bolduc 51-40, per a Emerson College/WHDH poll. (800 somewhat and very likely voters, Sept. 14-15, MoE +/-3.4 percentage points.)   JOIN THURSDAY FOR A GLOBAL INSIDER INTERVIEW : From climate change to public health emergencies and a gloomy global economic outlook, the world continues to deal with overlapping crises. How do we best confront all of these issues? Join POLITICO Live on Thursday, Sept. 22 at 10:30 a.m. EDT for a virtual conversation with Global Insider author Ryan Heath, featuring World Bank President David Malpass, to explore what it will take to restore global stability and avoid a prolonged recession. REGISTER HERE.     THE CASH DASH — "Increasingly worried that big donors are failing to recognize the scale of the threat to democratic norms, Democratic strategists and party officials are rallying behind an effort to persuade them to redirect their cash to key state and local elections," Heidi Przybyla reports for POLITICO . "While Democratic candidates in top U.S. House and Senate races are flush with cash in the run-up to November, a number of those running for key state legislative and statewide posts aren't nearly as well-heeled." — In an attempt to vilify the incumbent in the battleground state, Republicans are going after Sen. Raphael Warnock's financial gains since he took office, POLITICO's Natalie Allison and Burgess Everett report . "The GOP's failure to successfully frame the Democratic senator as a radical socialist during Georgia's 2020 special election has prompted a strategic shift to negatively define Warnock. … Warnock's opponents are zeroing in on a unique $7,400 monthly housing allowance he receives as pastor of Atlanta's Ebenezer Baptist Church. The stipend amounts to nearly $90,000 in income that appears to far exceed his housing costs back home, money that's exempt from income taxes, according to IRS rules. It's one piece of a broader financial attack the GOP is launching this fall, from ads to earned media." — In an internal memo sent last Tuesday to big-dollar donors, Democratic candidate for Pennsylvania Senate John Fetterman's campaign manager Brendan McPhillips warned that Republican candidate Mehmet Oz and his allies are together investing more in television ads than Fetterman and Democratic super PACs that support him, our Holly Otterbein reports . "In the last three weeks alone, Republicans have spent nearly $12 million dollars — significantly outspending us and out-communicating on the airwaves. We cannot allow this to continue unabated," the memo said. — Meet the Colorado rancher spending $11 million-plus to prevent Democratic Gov. Jared Polis from winning reelection, courtesy of The Colorado Sun's Jesse Paul : Steve Wells "is not your traditional political influencer. He doesn't like the halls of power, nor the people who fill them. But what he says he dislikes even more is the state's direction, and he's willing to dig into his deep pockets — filled with money from when he allowed oil and gas drilling on his 40,000-acre Weld County spread — to change it. … Republican insiders are privately grumbling about Wells because they think his money would be better spent on races that appear more winnable, like the very competitive battle for control of the Colorado Senate, where a GOP majority would decapitate Polis' policy agenda." — The Asian American Power Network, an alliance of state-based Asian American 501(c)(4) organizations, launched a $10 million push to turn out Asian American and Pacific Islander voters. The program — which will run year-round but has an electoral focus ahead of the midterm — will span seven states, including Arizona, California, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, and includes door-to-door canvassing and outreach via phone, text, mail and digital. "The AAPI community has been traditionally overlooked and underinvested in by campaigns and candidates," AAPN Executive Director Nadia Belkin said in a statement. "The bottom line is that this infrastructure exists but requires greater and deeper investment to meet voters where they are and in ways they can relate to." Presidential Big Board — President Joe Biden on "60 Minutes," per POLITICO's David Cohen and Adam Cancryn: "Is it a firm decision that I run again? That remains to be seen," Biden said, saying he would make his decision after the November midterms. He did qualify his remarks by saying it had always been his "intention" to seek another term and explained that "election laws" would come into play if he were to announce his candidacy at this juncture. CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "Why Maine politicians are brandishing their lobster bona fides" (Maine Public)   A message from PREMION: For winning campaigns, every CTV impression counts With the explosive growth in streaming TV, more and more voters are cutting the cord and Connected TV (CTV) is an essential media channel for engaging them. What are best practices when it comes to buying CTV? When should you be concerned about ad fraud and how can you best mitigate the risk? What should you do to ensure you have access to the CTV inventory you need this cycle? What does a smart CTV ad plan look like in 2022? A new report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion helps answer these questions and more. The report is a must-read for political marketers who need to navigate the increasingly fragmented and complex streaming TV marketplace to effectively plan and buy CTV advertising. Download the complimentary report, Streaming TV and the Political Market: Navigating CTV Advertising in the 2022 Campaign Cycle here.     Follow us on Twitter Steven Shepard @politico_steve Zach Montellaro @zachmontellaro Ally Mutnick @allymutnick Madison Fernandez @madfernandez616   Follow us

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