‘Too early to tell’ if Iran protests will sink regime

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Sep 27, 2022 View in browser   By Alexander Ward Protesters shout slogans during a protest against the death of Iranian Mahsa Amini on Sept. 24, 2022. | Yorgos Karahalis/AP Photo With help from Lawrence Ukenye, Lee Hudson, Lara Seligman, Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex The Biden administration is in wait-and-see mode as it tracks what effect protests in Iran might have on the Islamist regime. President JOE BIDEN has moved much faster this time around than his former boss, BARACK OBAMA, in showing support for similar demonstrators in 2009. JAKE SULLIVAN, the national security adviser, said on NBC News' "Meet the Press" program Sunday that the protests over the killing of MAHSA AMINI by so-called morality police were a "matter of fundamental dignity and rights." Where the days of anger might lead, though, has insiders uncertain. "It's too early to tell," said a senior administration official. A National Security Council spokesperson echoed that sentiment: "We can't predict whether these protests will turn into political change." But the U.S. can watch for signs that the clerical establishment's hold on power is slipping. Indicators include if Iranians from all walks of life come together and join in increasingly large and vociferous anti-government protests. On Monday, the educators' union called on teachers and students to go on strike. The regime's response is also key. Iranian security forces are unfortunately skilled at quashing uprisings, having done so brutally for decades. But if increasing resistance is followed by escalating force — beaming dramatic, violent images within Iran and around the world — then it's possible the regime will lose credibility even among its supporters. What the U.S. has seen over the last 10 days, while inspiring, hasn't changed any internal thinking. "I haven't heard anything suggested in the office that it is enough to topple the regime," the senior administration official told NatSec Daily. That won't stop the Biden administration from supporting the demonstrations led by women angry at Amini's death, a lack of equality in Iranian society and dwindling economic prospects. Last week, the U.S. relaxed sanctions on internet services to help expand the flow of information inside Iran. And ELON MUSK has promised to send the Starlink satellite internet system to Iran to keep protesters online. Making Starlink work, though, will come at huge personal and financial cost. Thousands of terminals would have to be smuggled into the country since the government doesn't want them up and running. That's in contrast to the Starlink's success in Ukraine, where Kyiv wanted the connectivity and used the terminals to fend off Russia. One thing on NatSec Daily's mind: Would Biden's team move this fast and openly if the protests were happening in a friendly country, say, Egypt or Saudi Arabia? After all, then-VP Biden backed Egyptian dictator HOSNI MUBARAK during "Arab Spring" protests in 2011. Perhaps it's easier to speak with moral authority when demonstrators oppose an enemy. Regardless, some around the U.S. government are keeping their fingers crossed that this is it for Tehran's leaders. "The amount of support and solidarity from traditionally less-engaged progressive circles in the U.S. and around the world gives one hope that this time is different," said a Senate Democratic aide. "A global movement of empowered women empowering women is paralyzing for any regime."   WATCH CEPA FORUM 2022. The Center for European Policy Analysis hosts NATO SACEUR Gen. Christopher Cavoli, Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae-Ionel Ciucă, and other global leaders to discuss how to ensure the future security of the transatlantic alliance. TUNE IN NOW .     The Inbox RUSSIA'S NEW NUKE WARNING: A top Russian official and ally of Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN issued a nuclear threat that adds to the aggressive statements coming out of Moscow. "Imagine that Russia is forced to use the most formidable weapon against the Ukrainian regime, which has committed a large-scale act of aggression that is dangerous for the very existence of our state. I believe that NATO will not directly intervene in the conflict even in this situation," former Russian President DMITRY MEDVEDEV and current deputy chair of Russia's Security Council said in a Telegram post . "After all, the security of Washington, London, and Brussels is much more important for the North Atlantic Alliance than the fate of the perishing Ukraine." Reuters' GUY FAULCONBRIDGE and JONATHAN LANDAY note that Medvedev "predicted for the first time that the NATO military alliance would not risk a nuclear war and directly enter the Ukraine war even if Moscow struck Ukraine with nuclear weapons." The question: is Medvedev's post bravado or a wink at internal Kremlin thinking? Speaking of… WORLD WATCHING FOR RUSSIAN NUKE MOVES: U.S. and allied intelligence agencies are stepping up efforts to detect any Russian military moves or communications that might signal Putin has ordered the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, five current and former U.S. officials told our own BRYAN BENDER. But any indications that the erratic Russian leader has decided to unleash the unthinkable — in a desperate attempt to re-seize the initiative or bully the international community into meeting his demands — could come too late, they warned. Most of Russia's aircraft, along with its conventional missile and rocket launchers, can also deliver smaller, tactical nuclear weapons. Those weapons are designed for more targeted use on the battlefield than strategic arms such as intercontinental ballistic missiles, which give off tell-tale signs when their units are put on alert or mustered in training exercises. That means that unless Putin or his commanders want the world to know in advance, the U.S. might never know when Russian forces have swapped out conventional munitions for atomic bombs. "We are always on watch and ready to respond if needed," Lt. Cmdr. JOSHUA KELSEY, a spokesperson for U.S. Strategic Command, which is responsible for deterring nuclear conflict, told Bender. "We haven't seen any evidence at this time that Russia will use nuclear weapons. We take these threats very seriously, but we have not seen any reason to adjust our own nuclear posture at this time." IT'S A SABOTAGE!: Three leaks on two Russia-to-Germany gas pipelines could be sabotage, Danish Prime Minister METTE FREDERIKSEN said Tuesday. "We certainly cannot rule it out," she said while on a visit to Poland to open the new Baltic Pipe linking Poland and Denmark with Norway's offshore gas fields, per our own AMERICA FERNANDEZ. "It is too early to conclude yet, but this is an extraordinary situation and there are three leaks, so it is hard to imagine that it could be a coincidence." Polish Prime Minister MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI had fewer doubts. "We do not yet know the details of what happened, but we can clearly see that it is an act of sabotage," he said at the joint appearance with Frederiksen, calling it "the next stage in the escalation of the situation we are facing in Ukraine." WHERE IS THE NSS?: The Biden administration took office roughly 20 months ago, and U.S. allies are still waiting to see the National Security Strategy, German Brig. Gen. FRITZ URBACH , defense attaché, said today at the annual ComDef conference. "I think it's a matter of weeks that we will see this document," Urbach said, LEE HUDSON writes in. CARA ABERCROMBIE, deputy assistant to the president and coordinator for defense policy and arms control for the White House, said during the same event that the NSS is "coming soon" but did not provide further details on the rollout. IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @alexbward. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95 and @Lawrence_Ukenye. A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security. Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more.   Flashpoints 'HUGE PROBLEM': The Ukrainian military is struggling to deal with the influx of Iranian-made drones that Russia is using to devastating effect, our own LARA SELIGMAN reported. "[A] Ukrainian activist and three soldiers said the Iranian drones pose a major threat to both fighters and civilians. Their arrival on the battlefield makes the need for the West to send additional modern weaponry even more urgent, as Kyiv tries to seize on recent gains to retake as much territory as possible before winter sets in, they said," per Seligman. "It's very difficult to see these drones on radars," ANDRIANA AREKHTA, a junior sergeant with the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said in an interview. "It's a huge problem." Over the past week, Russia has deployed Shahed and Mohajer combat drones imported from Iran in greater numbers across Ukraine. Some hit combat positions, smashing tanks and armored vehicles, while others struck civilian infrastructure, including in the port city of Odesa. Keystrokes CYBER STANDARDS FOR DRONES: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report that the Pentagon's Defense Innovation Unit and the Association for Uncrewed Vehicle Systems International will announce an agreement today to collaborate on cybersecurity standards in order to expand the number of commercial drones that meet government requirements. The trade group will streamline the vetting process for small drones and work with cybersecurity firms to provide assessments to the Pentagon. DIU launched the Blue UAS program in 2021 to establish a baseline for commercially available drones to meet requirements mandated by Congress and federal agencies. To date, there are 13 drones on the cleared list. But demand for drones that offer other capabilities has outpaced DIU's capacity to vet them. The Complex OPPORTUNITY FOR U.S. WEAPONS MAKERS: Putin's war in Ukraine has provided an unexpected opportunity for America's weapons makers, the National Security Council's Abercrombie also said today at a conference in Arlington, Va., Lara writes in. Countries that have typically looked to Russia for military equipment are now going to have a tougher time getting even basic supplies from Moscow, she said, noting its "weakened defense industrial base." This is a window for U.S. industry to slide in and provide the support these countries need: "We've got to make sure that [the] defense-industrial base is ready to go," she said. Abercrombie's comments come a day ahead of a planned meeting of international armaments directors in Brussels, headed by the Pentagon's top weapons buyer BILL LaPLANTE. The directors will gather to discuss shortages in the supply chain and how to strengthen their respective industrial bases to better support Ukraine.   SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.     On the Hill FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– RUSSIAN OIL PRICE CAPS: This month, the G-7 agreed to place price caps on Russian oil to limit the amount of money the Kremlin could use on its war in Ukraine — but it hasn't happened yet due to disagreements over how to impose it and questions about cheating. Reps. JAKE AUCHINCLOSS (D-Mass.) and ANTHONY GONZALEZ (R-Ohio) wrote to Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN in hopes of pushing the deal over the line. "A well-designed, comprehensive price cap will help the democratic world stand with Ukraine and protect economies threatened by Putin's weaponization of energy," they wrote in a letter exclusively obtained by NatSec Daily. "We agree that the G-7 proposed price cap, which would allow for insurance of Russian oil shipments if oil is purchased at a predetermined discounted price, would strengthen existing sanctions and further damage Russia's economy." Auchincloss spoke to your host about his support for the price cap and the problems in agreeing to one, noting the diplomatic, bureaucratic and technocratic hurdles it will take. "We have done a good job of arming the Ukrainians. We've done a good job of providing economic and humanitarian aid to the Ukrainians. We've done a good job of central bank sanctions. We've done a good job of commercial sanctions. The remaining nail in the coffin of the Kremlin war machine is energy sanctions," he said. Imposing the price caps will show the world that "we're going to stay with Ukraine during a long cold winter, and we're going to stay with Ukraine as long as it takes." Broadsides VOTERS WANT UKRAINE DIPLOMACY: A new poll conducted by the pro-restraint Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft shows Americans want to see a diplomatic effort to end the war in Ukraine, Insider's JOHN HALTIWANGER reported. The results: "57% of likely voters strongly or somewhat support the US pursuing diplomatic negotiations as soon as possible to end the war in Ukraine, even if it requires Ukraine making compromises with Russia. Just 32% of respondents were strongly or somewhat opposed to this. And nearly half of the respondents (47%) said they only support the continuation of US military aid to Ukraine if the US is involved in ongoing diplomacy to end the war, while 41% said they support the continuation of US military aid to Ukraine whether the US is involved in ongoing diplomacy or not." Officials in the U.S., Europe and Kyiv say there's no reason to engage diplomatically with Russia right now because it wouldn't be a serious negotiation. Putin just partially mobilized Russia's military and has shown no desire for a deal. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY insists that the fighting will end once his country has regained all Moscow-seized territory. Put together, it looks like the American public's hope for real diplomacy may already be dashed.     Transitions — LISA EINSTEIN is now executive director of the CISA Cybersecurity Advisory Committee. She graduated from Stanford University in 2022 as its first-ever dual master's degree recipient in computer science and international cyber policy. What to Read — Sen. JOHN BARRASSO, National Review: "Biden's Political Abuse of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve" — KIM LYNCH and CHRISTINE MENZA, The Cipher Brief: "Three Strategies to Power the Intelligence Community Workforce" — CLEA CAULCUTT, HANS VON DER BURCHARD and JACOPO BARIGAZZI, POLITICO Europe: "When will Europe learn to defend itself?" Tomorrow Today — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: "Practical Guidance for Strengthening Arms and Dual-Use Trade Controls." — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: "A Conversation with Thomas West in the Context of Afghanistan One Year Later" — The United States Institute of Peace, 9:30 a.m.: "Exiting Violence: Disengagement and Reconciliation for Community-Based Armed Groups." — Center for European Policy Analysis, 9:30 a.m.: "Meeting the Moment: Allies at a Crossroads"  — The McCain Institute, 9:30 a.m.: "Meet The People Helping Prosecute War Crimes in Ukraine" — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: "Keeping the Pressure on Russia and Its Enablers: Examining the Reach of and Next Steps for U.S. Sanctions" — Senate Judiciary Committee, 10 a.m.: "From Nuremberg to Ukraine: Accountability for War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10:30 a.m.: A Conversation with H.E. HOSHYAR ZEBARI — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 a.m.: "A Decisive Moment in Ukraine" — The Government Executive Media Group, 11 a.m.: "State of Defense: Space Force" — The Wilson Center, noon: "Report Launch: Collapsed Security Threatens the Future of Yazidis and Minorities in Sinjar" — The Hudson Institute, 3:30 p.m.: "Establishing and Fortifying U.S. National Security Supply Chains" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Dave Brown, who says it's "too early to tell" if he likes editing this newsletter. A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security. Lockheed Martin is helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating our digital transformation. That means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins so you can anticipate maintenance and reduce downtime. It means deep knowledge of your missions. It means industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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