Visiting foreign lawmakers gang up on China

What's next in U.S.-China relations.

Sep 15, 2022 View in browser   By Phelim Kine Attendees at the annual The Inter-Parliamentary Coalition for China Policy Summit in Washington on Sept. 13, 2022. | Phelim Kine/POLITICO Hi, China Watchers. This week we measure the China fear factor among visiting foreign lawmakers to Washington, D.C. and take a close look at former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's and U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns ' video appeals to the Chinese internet. We'll also kick the tires on the Biden administration's moves to take the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework from slogan to strategy and profile the second in a series of books that assesses Xi Jinping's hardline politics and personality. And mark your calendar: On Wednesday, Sept. 28 at 10:00AM EST/4:00PM CEST please join Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and French legislator Benjamin Haddad in a special Twitter Spaces discussion with your host and my colleague in Brussels Stuart Lau on how Xi's move toward China leader-for-life status may rally and rattle the U.S.-EU relationship. Let's get to it. — Phelim   DON'T MISS -MILKEN INSTITUTE ASIA SUMMIT : Go inside the 9th annual Milken Institute Asia Summit, taking place from September 28-30, with a special edition of POLITICO's Global Insider newsletter, featuring exclusive coverage and insights from this important gathering. Stay up to speed with daily updates from the summit, which brings together more than 1,200 of the world's most influential leaders from business, government, finance, technology, and academia. Don't miss out, subscribe today.     An international coalition of lawmakers who convened in Washington, D.C. this week sounded the alarm about their fears of China's growing economic, diplomatic, and military pressure. Sixty-odd legislators from 30 countries including Fiji, Ukraine and Taiwan — participants at the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China's summit on Tuesday and Wednesday — pleaded with U.S. lawmakers for greater U.S. support in countering what they say is the ruling Chinese Communist Party's role in undermining their national security. Those calls underscore how Beijing's increasingly aggressive power projection is curdling perceptions of China as a threat to democracy. "The CCP's use of money and influence is particularly damaging for small island states where I come from … they know they can buy influence, particularly in support of authoritarian and anti-democratic politicians," said LENORA QEREQERETABUA, an IPAC guest legislator from Fiji. "I think it's incumbent on Western countries who are strong on democracy to please help us in the Pacific Islands and strengthen our institutions so we can be prepared for countries like China." Democracy at risk. That message resonated with attending U.S. lawmakers including Senators MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) and BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.). "There has now been a global awakening, the realization that the planet is threatened by the rise of a totalitarian bloc, an alliance of totalitarians who seek to redefine the world order in their image … and of course, Beijing's Communist Party leads the way in that regard," Rubio said. One of the front lines of that battle is Taiwan, which has struggled under an intensifying campaign of Chinese military intimidation since House Speaker NANCY PELOSI's trip to the self-governing island last month. Menendez sought to ease concerns that administration objections to elements of his Taiwan Policy Act may kneecap the effort to bolster the island's defenses. The bill — which the Senate Foreign Relations Committee passed Wednesday by a vote of 17-5 — authorizes $4.5 billion in security assistance for Taiwan and gives the island the distinction of being a "major non-NATO ally," among other provisions. "The thrust of the legislation will remain the same, which is to have a clear definition of support for Taiwan, for its territorial integrity, for assisting significantly in its defense posture through asymmetric weapons sales [and] to assist in [its] international participation," Menendez said. Taiwan firing line. But there are doubts about the ultimate utility of efforts to protect Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion. There are growing concerns that Chinese President XI JINPING may launch an attack sooner than later to deliver on his vow to "reunify" the island with the Chinese mainland. "There is no way we get to the end of this decade without something happening one way or the other with regards to Taiwan, and that is a moment which threatens to be a seminal moment in human history," Rubio said. The Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Washington pressed home the self-governing island's pursuit of greater international support by hosting a special reception for the IPAC summit participants at TECRO's famed Twin Oaks estate. "The Chinese government is buying your businesses, buying your ports, buying your universities and even buying your land… China has been using economic coercion to change your way of life," said Taiwanese legislator FAN YUN. The Ukraine lesson. A senior CCP official's justification on Friday of Russia's Ukraine invasion as a "necessity" for Moscow's security has fueled doubts about Xi's self-proclaimed commitment to "respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries." "China claims that it is neutral but in reality, it's not neutral," said Ukrainian lawmaker and IPAC Co-Chair for Ukraine OLEKSANDR MEREZHKO. "China helps Russia evade Western sanctions by buying Russian oil, [so] China in fact finances Russia's war machine and provides Russia diplomatic aid at the U.N. by voting against resolutions in support of Ukraine's territorial integrity." TRANSLATING WASHINGTON — POMPEO LAUNCHES CHINA-TARGETED YOUTUBE SERIES:   Former Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO on Wednesday launched the first of a series of short YouTube videos critical of the ruling Chinese Communist Party. The three-minute video, subtitled in Chinese, features Pompeo speaking directly into the camera while brandishing a Winnie the Pooh mug, a sly reference to the now-taboo comparison of Xi to the pot-bellied fictional bear. Pompeo says his goal is to "talk directly to the Chinese people about U.S.-China relations." Pompeo then launches into an anti-CCP screed (a "totalitarian political organization committed to a foreign, anti-Chinese ideology") that references its history of mass murder while name-checking Hong Kong political prisoners JIMMY LAI and CARDINAL ZEN as well as devotees of China's underground house church movement. The Hudson Institute's China Center — where Pompeo serves as advisory board chair — hopes the video will circulate widely in China despite its daunting Internet censorship regime. MILES YU, director of the Hudson Institute's China Center and Pompeo's former planning adviser, nodded to the suggestion that the YouTube series may be useful branding for a possible Pompeo GOP presidential primary run. "If the country is facing an existential threat [from China], any politician would want to bring that warning to the nation," Yu said. The Chinese embassy in Washington didn't respond to a request for comment.  — USTR AND COMMERCE TOUT IPEF PROGRESS: The Biden administration last week successfully tabled the "negotiation objectives" of its new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework at a ministerial meeting of the 14 countries signed onto the deal, Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO and United States Trade Representative KATHERINE TAI said in a statement Friday. The administration launched the IPEF, the economic arm of the administration's China-countering Indo-Pacific strategy, in February — but so far it's been more slogan than strategy . Last week's negotiations produced joint statements outlining the negotiation objectives for each of the four IPEF pillars — trade, fair economy, clean economy and supply chains. India — which has the world's fifth-largest economy — refused to sign on to the trade pillar's joint declaration over what Indian commerce minister PIYUSH GOYAL called " possible discrimination against developing economies." That a la carte approach to the framework's key principles may undermine its success. "Now that India is trying to opt out of one of the [IPEF] pillars, that undercuts even further the notion that this can be an effective counterbalance to China," said HARRY G. BROADMAN, former U.S. Assistant Trade Representative and managing director at Berkeley Research Group. — PENTAGON: UKRAINE INVASION MAY PROTECT TAIWAN: A senior Pentagon official believes that the military and economic consequences to Russia of its Ukraine invasion may deter Beijing from considering a possible invasion of Taiwan. "I would hope that they would draw the lesson from Russia's experience that, 'Hey, maybe ... we shouldn't do that,'' COLIN KAHL, undersecretary of defense for policy, said at the Defense News Conference 2022 last week. Hot from the China Watchersphere From left: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Tajikistan President Imomali Rakhmon, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and President of Pakistan Mamnoon Hussain pose for a photo at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Qingdao on June 10, 2018. | Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP Photo — XI JINPING'S EXCELLENT CENTRAL ASIAN ADVENTURE: President Xi left China this week for the first time since January 2020 to visit Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. "From September 14 to 16, President Xi Jinping will attend the 22nd Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Samarkand and pay state visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan at the invitation of President KASSYM-JOMART TOKAYEV of the Republic of Kazakhstan and President SHAVKAT MIRZIYOYEV of the Republic of Uzbekistan," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson HUA CHUNYING said in a statement on Monday. The Kremlin confirmed on Wednesday that Xi will discuss the Ukraine war and "other international and regional topics" in a bilateral meeting with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN on the sidelines of the SCO meeting. "[Xi] is in a 'no surprises' mode, even more so than usual [so] a venture to see China's favorite dictators' club, the SCO, is low risk for him — but allows him to perform some kind of international leadership at home in the run up to the [20th Party] Congress," said DANIEL BAER, U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe from 2013 to 2017 and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. — CCP OFFICIAL: UKRAINE INVASION A 'NECESSITY': Senior Chinese Communist Party official LI ZHANSHU earned bear hugs in the Kremlin on Friday by declaring Russia's Ukraine invasion a "necessity" in response to NATO encroachment on Russia's border. "We fully understand the necessity of all the measures taken by Russia aimed at protecting its key interests. ... Russia made an important choice and responded firmly," an English language report from the Russian Duma quoted Li saying. Chinese state media reports of Li's Russia trip quoted him praising "unprecedented levels" of Russia-China cooperation, but made no reference to the Ukraine invasion. "I would perceive this more as [Chinese] symbolic support rather than more comprehensive tactical support for Russia's war in Ukraine," said MARIA REPNIKOVA, professor of global communication at Georgia State University. — U.N. XINJIANG REPORT REAPS CHINESE REPRISAL: The Chinese government has lashed out in response to the release earlier this month of the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights' long-delayed Xinjiang report which implicated the Chinese government in "crimes against humanity." "The office closed the door of cooperation [with China] by releasing the so-called assessment," China's ambassador to the U.N. in Geneva, CHEN XU, said Friday. That may be more than bluster — Beijing's anger could threaten Chinese funding for UNHCR projects including research on issues related to indigenous persons, social inequalities and racial discrimination. "Those are mandates that are doing incredible work on a global scale, and would potentially suffer from a Chinese decision to throw a hissy fit and take their money and walk away," said SARAH BROOKS, program director at the Geneva-based International Service for Human Rights. TRANSLATING CHINA A screenshot of U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns from a video posted to Weibo. | Weibo  —U.S. EMBASSY POETRY SPURS SWEETNESS, SCORN: It started innocently enough. The U.S. embassy in Beijing posted a video on its Weibo social media platform on Friday of U.S. Ambassador to China NICHOLAS BURNS and several colleagues marking China's Mid-Autumn Festival by reciting a commemorative Northern Song dynasty-era poem and wishing the embassy's 3.1 million Weibo followers a happy Mid-Autumn Festival. Considering that former Chinese President JIANG ZEMIN used to entertain American visitors by reciting portions of the Gettysburg Address in English, what's not to like? Portions of the Chinese internet found a lot to dislike. "The post met with a torrent of criticism in the comment section, as well as messages of support," China Media Project reported Monday. Your host scrolled through some of the comments and found some of the best snark.. Some stand outs: "The most beautiful verses are not the same when they come from the mouths of robbers and liars." "One minute they are saying happy Mid-Autumn Festival to China, the next minute they are thinking about how to sanction China." "Chinese poems coming from the mouth of a robber, it's like a cockroach spitting honey." HEADLINES Council on Geostrategy: "Taiwan: Invasion is not likely, but deterrence remains vital" Voice of America: "China's Charm Offensive Loses Appeal in Baltics" New York Times: "What My Family and I Saw When We Were Trapped in China's Heat Wave" HEADS UP — XI'S FOREIGN TRAVEL OPTIONS BONANZA: Xi Jinping is spoilt for choice in terms of his travel agenda after he wraps up his chat with Putin on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Uzbekistan this week. The British government has invited Xi to QUEEN ELIZABETH's funeral on Sept. 19. If he attends he'll be in easy striking range for an in-person appearance at the United Nations General Assembly in New York later that same week. Stay tuned. One Book, Three Questions The cover of the book Xi Jinping: Political Career, Governance and Leadership, 1953-2018 is shown. | Oxford University Press The Book: Xi Jinping: Political Career, Governance and Leadership, 1953-2018. The Author: ALFRED CHAN is an associate professor of political science at Huron University College, University of Western Ontario, Canada. What does your book research tell us about how Xi Jinping will rule China — and engage with the international community — after he receives a third term in October?   Xi Jinping will continue to privilege Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership to spearhead development and to advance post-Covid recovery. Despite the stereotype of the CCP as a conspiratorial, secretive, and revolutionary party — and an alien force seeking to dominate Chinese civil society — the Party resembles a modernized elite and a catch-all party broadly representative of the population. Its membership consists primarily of technicians, managers, farmers, herders, workers, party/government officials, and students. And its membership of 97 million (roughly equal to the combined population of Germany and The Netherlands) accounts for 6.85 percent of the population. Xi will also seek to move China further to the center stage of global politics more commensurate with its new-found economic clout, capabilities, and security needs. It will privilege its comparative advantages in manufacture, technology, and infrastructural building to enmesh other countries, and to defend its interests against adversaries which treat it as an usurper. What was the most surprising thing you learned about Xi while you researched and wrote this book?  One striking aspect of the Xi phenomenon…is his attempt to build and rebuild institutions. For instance, domestically, he has rebuilt the CCP through anti-corruption and educational campaigns, reformed the judiciary, the military, and the government structure. Externally, he has created institutions such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership [and] the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to foster [regional] interdependency.  What does your analysis of Xi's history, motivations and objectives tell us about the trajectory and future of U.S.-China relations? Both structural and [individual leader's] agency factors are required to determine the future of U.S.-China relations. One central concept in international relations theory is the notion of a security dilemma. When one state augments its security either through economic or military means, regardless of its intentions, other states will feel less secure. When these other states attempt to deter or counter [that] state, [it] will feel threatened, ending with a spiral of fear, mistrust, and hostility. Currently, the rise of China and the U.S. attempts to contain and hold Beijing back is a manifestation of this structural logic. This doesn't mean that human agency does not matter. Xi's first priority is economic development and he favors the tremendous win-win benefits generated by economic globalization and interdependence. Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com. Thanks to: Ben Pauker, Matt Kaminski and digital producer Andrew Howard. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week's items? Email us at chinawatcher@politico.com.   Follow us

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