| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | Presented by PREMION | | | | Incumbents typically enjoy an advantage when the time for reelection rolls around, on everything from cash to name recognition. But heading into the final stretch before Election Day, some challengers demonstrated a fundraising surge that outpaced the sitting candidates. The Washington Senate race is forecasted to lean in favor of incumbent Sen. Patty Murray . Still, Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley raised $6 million in the third quarter, compared to Murray's $3.6 million. In the first two quarters of this year, the two were neck-and-neck when it came to fundraising, with Murray bringing in less than five figures more than Smiley each quarter. Murray still holds a comfortable lead in recent polling, but the financial momentum behind Smiley's campaign makes it a race to keep an eye on. Democratic Wisconsin Senate hopeful Mandela Barnes' campaign brought in over $20 million — a big jump for a candidate who raised $2.1 million in the previous quarter, and around $1 million in the quarters before that. He's previously been consistently outraised by incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson , who brought in $12 million during Q3. Wisconsin is one of Democrats' main pick-up opportunities, and hope that Barnes switches into high gear in the final weeks. The race for Utah Senate is proving to be tight for Republican Sen. Mike Lee , who last week pleaded with fellow Republican Utah Sen. Mitt Romney to " get on board " and support his bid for reelection (which Romney's aides reportedly were not very happy about ). Lee raised $1.6 million in Q3 compared to independent Evan McMullin's $2.5 million — the largest gap between the two. Lee narrowly outraised his challenger in Q2, and McMullin had a slight upper hand in fundraising in Q1. Even though McMullin has been boosted by Democrats throughout his campaign, he said on Sunday that he wouldn't caucus with either party . Democrat Val Demings, who has had a demanding lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Marco Rubio throughout the cycle, again posted a strong quarter. She raised $22.5 million compared to Rubio's $9.8 million. And while she might have the cash advantage, Rubio's been maintaining his lead in the polls. Some House incumbents are also getting outraised. Incumbent TX-28 Democrat Henry Cuellar is being outraised by Republican Cassy Garcia, who brought in $1.7 million . Cuellar didn't break $1 million . South Texas has been an area to watch for Democrats , where they hope to fend off Republican challengers amid an increasingly GOP-friendly Latino population. Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan in IN-01 was also outraised by Republican challenger Jennifer-Ruth Green. In Q3, she brought in around $1.4 million , while he raised under $940,000 . Green had the fundraising advantage in Q2 as well. And in VA-10, incumbent Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton brought in just over $900,000 , compared to Republican Hung Cao's $1.4 million . A few challengers at the state level are taking the financial advantage, too. (Keep in mind that gubernatorial financial reports differ from the FEC deadlines for Congress.) Republican Mark Ronchetti, who's challenging Democratic New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, raised $1.5 million in October , compared to the incumbent's $1.1 million. And Democrat Beto O'Rourke, who's vying to be the governor of Texas, just barely outraised incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. Money isn't everything, but it's certainly worthwhile to have the cash flowing for last-minute spending ahead of the election — it just matters how these candidates spend it. And with the influx of money these challengers raised in the third quarter, there's signs of momentum building against the incumbents. Happy Monday! The Q3 fundraising filing deadline was this weekend. Find anything interesting? Have some unanswered questions? Send them over to mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616 . Days until the general election: 22 Days until the 2022 World Cup: 34 Days until the 2024 election: 750
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| | | DO YOU GET DEJA VU — Even though the Democrats secured some wins in the 50-50 Senate, they're facing the possibility of two more years of an evenly divided chamber. As their list of potential pickups shrinks and races tighten in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, there's some finger-pointing about if the Senate Majority PAC has done enough in these states. Read more from POLITICO's Marianne LeVine and Holly Otterbein report . DEBATE UPDATE — After much debate about debates, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker took the stage on Friday. Read the recap from POLITICO's Natalie Allison . Warnock and Libertarian Chase Oliver also took part in a debate Sunday night, which Walker didn't attend. … And here are takeaways from Friday's Wisconsin gubernatorial debate between Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Republican Tim Michels, courtesy of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Molly Beck . On the debate slate tonight: Republican Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, Democrat Stacey Abrams and Libertarian Shane Hazel will debate at 7 p.m. In Ohio, Senate hopefuls Democrat Tim Ryan and Republican J.D. Vance will square up for a second time at 7 p.m. And the Utah Senate debate between Republican Sen. Mike Lee and independent candidate Evan McMullin will take place at 8 p.m. EST . TAX SEASON — Republicans are spending millions on attacks ads hitting Democrats over IRS funding — attacks that "exaggerate the number of enforcement agents the administration intends to hire, and ignore Democrats' promises they will be focused on high earners," POLITICO's Brian Faler writes . "Democrats haven't focused nearly as much on the IRS money in their election campaigns, though they scoff at the Republican ads, saying the money is intended to improve customer service and crack down on wealthy tax cheats." ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — A ballot initiative in Michigan that determines if the state's 1931 anti-abortion law remains on the books has pushed abortion to the forefront in races up and down the ballot in the swing state, POLITICO's Alice Miranda Ollstein reports . In the governor's race, Democratic incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is pitching herself as "the last line of defense for reproductive freedom, regardless of the outcome of the referendum." Meanwhile, Republican opponent Tudor Dixon, who opposes abortion except to save the life of the parent, contends that the ballot initiative and her race are "two separate issues." "The governor is trying to run on abortion because her record is so bad," she told Alice. VETS AIMING FOR CONGRESS — "A new breed of veterans, many with remarkable biographies and undeniable stories of heroism, are running for the House on the far right of the Republican Party, challenging old assumptions that adding veterans to Congress — men and women who fought for the country and defended the Constitution — would foster bipartisanship and cooperation," The New York Times' Jonathan Weisman reports . "At the same time, they are embracing anti-interventionist military and foreign policies that, since the end of World War II, have been associated more with the Democratic left than the mainline G.O.P." THANKS, OBAMA — Former President Barack Obama is hitting the trail in Atlanta, Detroit and Milwaukee. He's stumping in races and states "that will have consequences for the administration of 2024 elections," according to his office . … President Joe Biden is also continuing to support Democrats on the trail. He's set to travel to Pennsylvania to support Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman later this month, and is heading to Florida for gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist on Nov. 1. First lady Jill Biden has taken a more pronounced role on the trail, a change from recent cycles, The Hill's Alex Gangitano notes . … But who do Dems really want on the trail? Pete Buttigieg, apparently. CNN's Edward-Isaac Dovere reports that the nation's transportation secretary "has become the most requested surrogate on the campaign trail for Democratic candidates in the midterms" — more than even Vice President Kamala Harris (but fewer than Biden). "Some campaign operatives admit, with a note of embarrassment, they have been reluctant to invite Harris out of fear that would bring scrutiny from Republicans who monitor every word she says in ways Buttigieg rarely has to worry about, leaving candidates as collateral damage in an attack (fairly or unfairly) aimed at the first Black woman vice president." MARK AS SPAM — For months, Republicans have been vocal about Google's spam filtering, alleging that it unfairly targeted GOP politicians and groups. In August, the FEC approved a proposal from the tech giant to test new features for filtering spam from bulk senders — effectively allowing federal campaigns and other political committees to bypass spam filters and land in the inbox of Gmail users. But "nearly a month after the pilot's launch, the RNC has not joined or even applied for the program," The Verge's Makena Kelly reports . On Friday, RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel said on Fox News that "we are actually prepping a lawsuit that will be filed very, very soon." MAILER WATCH — We're looking to bring more transparency to the elections process. How you can help: Send us photos of the campaign ads you've gotten in the mail. You can upload photos here or email them to mailers@politico.com .
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | | | | — Check out the Senate FEC chart for Q3 here . Top spenders include Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman. Those with the most cash on hand include Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.). — "Outside groups have poured more than $1.3 billion into the 2022 federal midterm elections, surpassing the nominal – not adjusted for inflation – 2018 midterm election record ," OpenSecrets' Taylor Giorno reports . — John Fetterman's campaign issued a warning to donors about Scott Dworkin's progressive super PAC the Democratic Coalition, saying the group is "only pretending that the money they raise goes to John and our campaign," POLITICO's Caitlin Oprysko reports . The Democratic Coalition has ruffled feathers in Democratic circles before , and the group rejects the charge.
| | | | A message from PREMION:   | | | | | | FIRST IN SCORE — Republican candidate for Colorado Senate Joe O'Dea is out with a new Spanish-language ad , airing statewide. The spot hits incumbent Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet on the usual points — crime, immigration, inflation — and pulls up a 2019 article about his $15 million net worth while running for president. It's his second Spanish-language ad of the general. … My colleagues Marissa Martinez and Jessica Piper reported over the weekend that Republican candidates and groups are lagging Democrats when it comes to Spanish-language ad buys. Democrats have spent more than $54 million in Democratic spending on Spanish-language TV and radio ads since the start of 2021, compared to $19 million for Republicans, according to AdImpact. If future Spanish-language bookings hold, GOP candidates and groups will spend at least $30 million on Hispanic media, far surpassing the $22 million total they spent during the 2020 cycle — but still trailing what Democrats have already spent. … And read more on the Colorado Senate race from POLITICO's Natalie Allison : "In the final weeks of the 2022 midterm campaign, with the GOP's pickup prospects fading in states like Arizona and Georgia, national Republicans are looking for backup opportunities and holding out hope that O'Dea can eke out an upset in a state that's on the bluer side of purple. … Senate Republicans' top super PAC moved $1.25 million into the state just over a week ago, as outside Democratic groups in the last month have steered more than $9 million to the Colorado race. It's one sign they aren't willing to take any chances on Bennet's ability to hold the seat for Democrats. Another was that President Joe Biden traveled to Colorado last week to tout a Bennet project." — Republican Tim Michels is out with a spot that features employees from his construction company speaking about the Wisconsin gubernatorial hopeful. It comes amid a barrage of ads in recent weeks from his opponent and outside groups that target him over alleged cases of sexual harrassment at the company. Michels previously called those ads a "coordinated attack by [Democratic Gov. Tony] Evers and his allies in the media." — Democratic candidate for governor of Arizona Katie Hobbs references comments Republican opponent Kari Lake made suggesting Arizona could secede from the U.S. in a spot. The ad then goes on to hit her over the risk of losing Social Security and Medicare benefits and military bases closing.
| | | | LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today . | | | | | | | | — Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is leading Democratic challenger Mike Franken 46-43, per a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted by Selzer & Co. The three-point lead signals "Grassley's toughest reelection fight in 40 years." (Oct. 9-12, 620 likely voters, MoE +/- 3.9 percentage points.) — Need to catch up on the polls from last week? Here's the weekly poll roundup , courtesy of POLITICO's Steve Shepard. CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "My guess is that I'm not going to spend a huge amount of money on general elections because, in general, I think that's just not where the most important levers are," crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried said about his political donations
| | | | A message from PREMION: For winning campaigns, every CTV impression counts
With the explosive growth in streaming TV, more and more voters are cutting the cord and Connected TV (CTV) is an essential media channel for engaging them.
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The report is a must-read for political marketers who need to navigate the increasingly fragmented and complex streaming TV marketplace to effectively plan and buy CTV advertising.
Download the complimentary report, Streaming TV and the Political Market: Navigating CTV Advertising in the 2022 Campaign Cycle here. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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