| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | Presented by The Heritage Foundation | | | | They're the heads of committees. They're in the Senate. They're governors. They're running for governor. They're (potentially) running for president. The 113th Congress welcomed a large freshman class , and a decade later, the next redistricting cycle is partially responsible for another large class of freshmen poised to join the House in just a few months. If the House freshman class of 2012 is any indication of what these newcomers might achieve, they could be shaping the political future in a lot of different ways. Just look at where some of the House freshmen of 2012 are now — and the huge impact they're having on American politics. — Two of the most recent DCCC chairs — Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos and New York Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney — started their House careers 10 years ago. Bustos isn't running for reelection, but Maloney, the current DCCC chair, is in a different district that's proving to be a competitive race. Congressional Leadership Fund dropped millions on an ad buy last week to unseat him. In a midterm environment that isn't extremely friendly to Democrats, all eyes are on the man tasked with holding the House majority. But he's staying optimistic — both for his own race and the party across the board. "You guys have been writing us off for two years, and we just went to work fixing people's problems," he said on Sunday's episode of ABC's "This Week." "We're doing a lot better than people thought we would. We are in a very competitive election. We know it's going to be a challenge." — Republican Ron DeSantis has skyrocketed to national recognition. In his bid for reelection for governor of Florida, recent polling has him ahead , and his name is floated as a contender for the 2024 presidential election. (Some 2024 speculation has also been thrown at Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), who was also a freshman in 2012, as he hit the trail this cycle.) The policies DeSantis has enacted in Florida have served as a playbook for Republican gubernatorial hopefuls across the country, like in Wisconsin and Kansas . — Michelle Lujan Grisham, the Democratic governor of New Mexico, is also in a reelection bid this year, running for her second term. She flipped the seat from then-Republican Gov. Susana Martinez when she won the 2018 gubernatorial race after serving in the House for six years. Lujan Grisham served as chair of the Democratic Governors Association in 2021. — Some members of this class are now in the Senate — or trying to be. Along with Cotton, that includes Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) — one of the main characters of the story in Washington for much of the last couple years — as well as Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), Steve Daines (R-Mont.) and Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.). Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) is vying to win the special election to fill the rest of retiring Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe 's term. — Democrat Beto O'Rourke has also been hopping around the political circuit over the last decade. After serving six years in the House, he ran unsuccessful bids for Senate and president. He's challenging Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott for the governorship, but most recent polling has him behind the incumbent. — Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) is one of the few House Republicans who backed former President Donald Trump's second impeachment. He made it through the primary, but the race is forecasted to be a toss-up . There's been heavy outside spending in the race, with the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund pouring in around $10 million in the general through Election Day, combined. — After serving in the House for eight years, Republican Mark Meadows served as the White House chief of staff until 2021. He's remained in headlines for his involvement in attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 election. — And then we have Tulsi Gabbard — once dubbed the " unlikely rising star of the Democratic Party " — who left the Democratic Party earlier this month. "Any time the Democratic Party leaders see someone that challenges their narrative, that questions the policies they're putting forward … they take those tactics of smear, destroy, cancel, work with Big Tech to censor, because they don't stand for freedom," Gabbard said on "The Megyn Kelly Show," speaking about her 2020 run for president. The former DNC vice chair has been hitting the trail ahead of Election Day, stumping for Republicans like Don Bolduc in the race for New Hampshire Senate and Kari Lake in Arizona's gubernatorial race. She's also planning on campaigning with Republican Michigan governor hopeful Tudor Dixon. But even though she's throwing her support to the right, she maintains she's not joining the GOP. "I'm an independent," she said to Fox News last week. Happy Monday! How's it looking out there? Send tips and feedback to mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616 . Days until the general election: 15 Days until the 2022 World Cup: 27 Days until the 2024 election: 743
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| | | — "These races are a critical part of our path to holding the Majority, but we can only win if we have the resources we need in the final sprint to Election Day." That's the message House Majority PAC sent to donors on Friday in a memo. POLITICO's Ally Mutnick writes : "It's a plea to shrink the widening fundraising gap between GOP super PACs and their Democratic counterparts, which has shifted the House battleground significantly in recent weeks." Democrats "have begun warning that they do not have the resources to contest every winnable race and that an onslaught of Republican spending has forced them to retrench in seats that might be otherwise safe." — Senate Leadership Fund canceled more than $5 million in television ads it reserved in New Hampshire through Election Day, The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher and Trip Gabriel report . NRSC canceled the remainder of its fall ad slate in the state earlier this month. "As the cycle comes to a close, we are shifting resources to where they can be most effective to achieve our ultimate goal: winning the majority," said Steven Law, head of SLF. Last week, Republican nominee Don Bolduc told POLITICO said he wouldn't support Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell as leader. — Fair Fight Action, the nonprofit founded by Stacey Abrams, spent more than $25 million over two years on legal fees, mostly on a single case — with $9.4 million going to the self-described boutique law firm of the candidate's campaign chair, POLITICO's Brittany Gibson reports . "Fair Fight Action has maintained that the suit [Fair Fight Action v. Raffensperger] — which ended last month when a federal judge ruled against the group on all three remaining claims — served an important role in drawing attention to voting inequities. But some outside the group questioned both the level of expenditures devoted to a single, largely unsuccessful legal action and the fact that such a large payout went to the firm of Abrams' close friend and campaign chair. Those concerns were heightened by the fact that Abrams' national campaign against voter suppression galvanized the Democratic Party, many of whose top donors helped fill its coffers." Abrams' campaign "disputed the idea that the litigation helped her candidacy, insisting the goal was to create a fair process, not bring about a certain result." — Super PACs poured $3.4 million into the New York gubernatorial race in support of Republican Lee Zeldin, bringing the total that the committees have spent helping Zeldin since early August to $11 million. POLITICO's Bill Mahoney reports : "The expenditures have let Zeldin remain financially competitive with the incumbent in the final weeks of the race, despite the fact that her committee has outraised his $46.3 million to $17.9 million since last year. The boost to Zeldin comes in a month in which polls have tightened and Hochul has lost her status as a runaway leader." — If it weren't for outside groups, Republican Senate candidates would be swamped on the airwaves, NPR's Domenico Montanaro reports . Outside groups have poured in nearly $1 billion to support GOP Senate candidates. Eighty-six percent of the money supporting Republicans is from outside groups, whereas outside groups make up 55 percent of the money supporting Democrats. — Republican candidate for Pennsylvania Senate Mehmet Oz lent his campaign another $1 million last Thursday, per an FEC filing . That brings his total loans to the campaign to over $20 million. — Democratic Los Angeles mayoral candidate Rick Caruso has erased a double-digit deficit with Democratic Rep. Karen Bass in the final weeks of the most expensive mayor's contest in city history — likely due to blanketing the airwaves in one of the most expensive media markets in the U.S., spending more than $81 million compared to $11 million by Bass, POLITICO's Alexander Nieves writes .
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | | | | DOWN BALLOT WATCH — Secretaries of state — once-obscure offices — have been on the front lines of politics for two years, after then-President Donald Trump tried to sway state election officers to subvert the results of the vote in 2020. Our Zach Montellaro reports from Minnesota : "Despite Democrats sounding alarms and raking in cash, there is mounting evidence that voters are still not dialed in on a slate of these key battleground campaigns. The race to be the top election official in several 2024 swing states remains tight. … These contests are still suffering from the quintessential curse of down-ballot races: whether it's possible to get voters to care about them, even after two years of dire messaging about the higher-than-ever stakes for the nation's political system." MEANWHILE IN CENTRAL NY — Democrat Francis Conole and Republican Brandon Williams "are crisscrossing a Central New York district that is one of biggest toss-ups in the nation as Republican incumbent John Katko is retiring at year's end, creating an open seat in a moderate district with control of the House at stake," POLITICO's Marie J. French reports . National groups are pumping more than $6 million into the 22nd District race between the two — both Navy veterans who are largely unknown candidates who have never held elected office. "The race pits a moderate Democrat against a conservative Republican who has embraced Donald Trump and settled permanently in the region in 2019 and lives just outside the district's borders." LEGAL CORNER — The RNC filed a lawsuit Friday against Google, alleging that the company is intentionally sending the committee's emails to spam. "At approximately the same time at the end of each month, Google sends to spam nearly all of the RNC's emails. Critically, and suspiciously, this end of the month period is historically when the RNC's fundraising is most successful," the suit, filed in the District Court for the Eastern District of California, says. "Google's conduct has caused the RNC to lose its ability to communicate voting information and other political messaging to its supporters during the critical midterm elections. This harm is irreparable and must be stopped." Google has denied the allegations . Google launched a spam filtering pilot program — which effectively allows federal campaigns and other political committees to bypass spam filters and land in the inbox of Gmail users — amid months of Republicans being vocal about the spam filtering policies.
| | | | A message from The Heritage Foundation:   | | | | | | — Voter interest in the midterm elections is at an all-time high, with 70 percent of voters expressing high interest, per an NBC News poll . Seventy-eight percent of Republicans demonstrate high interest; 69 percent of Democrats shared the same interest levels. Fifty-seven percent of all voters say this November's congressional elections are more important to them than past midterm elections, which is up from 52 percent in 2018. (1,000 registered voters, Oct. 14-18, MoE +/- 3.1 percentage points.) — "Over the past week, polls show GOP candidates closing the gap in states where Democrats have led all summer — and perhaps pulling away in races that had appeared close for months," POLITICO's Steve Shepard writes . "Meanwhile, Republicans stuck in stubbornly tied red states are beginning to show signs of building more durable advantages. Polls now show GOP candidates J.D. Vance and Ted Budd moving ahead of their Democratic opponents in Ohio and North Carolina, respectively." — Incumbent Democratic Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin is leading Republican Tom Barrett 47-41, according to a Glengariff Group Inc. poll commissioned by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV. The MI-07 contest is among the most expensive House races for ad spending in the country, with the NRCC pouring in over $6 million in the general through Election Day. In that period, Slotkin has also put in over $6 million, and the DCCC has around $5 million in the race. (400 likely voters, Oct. 18-20, MoE +/- 4.9 percentage points.) — Incumbent Republican Sen. Marco Rubio is leading Democratic challenger Val Demings 48-42 in the race for Florida Senate, per a Florida Atlantic University poll . Seven percent are undecided. Some counties begin early voting today. (719 likely voters, Oct. 12-16, MoE +/- 3.65 percent.)
| | | — The National Shooting Sports Foundation, a firearm industry trade association, made its first ever independent expenditure through its PAC. The group put in $40,000 against Democratic Arizona Rep. Tom O'Halleran — one of the most vulnerable incumbents this cycle — on a cable spot . The ad highlights the F rating O'Halleran has from the foundation. "Arizonans deserve a representative who will protect our Second Amendment rights," the ad says. "Tom O'Halleran has spun a false narrative that he's a moderate when the truth is he continuously votes against the Second Amendment rights of Arizonans," Larry Keane, senior vice president and general counsel of NSSF, said in a statement. "His opponent, Eli Crane ... is the obvious choice for gun owners and members of the industry. — Former President Barack Obama is hitting the trail for midterms — and the screens. He has a TV spot up for Democratic incumbent Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker. "Illinois will always hold a special place in my heart," Obama says. "I'm proud to cast my ballot to reelect JB Pritzker." — Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is seizing on the crime narrative following a barrage of ads about crime from Republican opponent Lee Zeldin and outside groups. "A safe walk home at night. A subway ride free of fear. A safer New York for every child," the spot says . "That's what Kathy Hochul is working for as governor and she passed a comprehensive crime plan to make it happen." It's part of a $1 million-plus buy in New York City. … As POLITICO's Joseph Spector and Anna Gronewold note : "After spending the summer pounding Republican opponent Lee Zeldin as an anti-abortion, Donald Trump acolyte, Hochul is finding out what other Democrats across the nation are also learning: Crime and the economy are crowding out abortion rights and the former president's troubles as top of mind issues for voters." — Republican candidate for Oregon governor Christine Drazan is out with an ad featuring Democrats and independents saying they'll vote for her. A notable quotable: a person in the spot saying, "I'm pro-choice." Her opponents have hammered her on her abortion stance . Earlier in the cycle, she told Oregon Public Broadcasting that she supports "common-sense regulations on abortion, including protecting life in the third trimester." At a debate last month, Drazan said that she would follow the law if elected. Abortion is legal in Oregon.
| | | | JOIN WOMEN RULE THURSDAY FOR A TALK WITH DEPARTING MEMBERS OF CONGRESS: A historic wave of retirements is hitting Congress, including several prominent Democratic women such as Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, House Democrats' former campaign chief. What is driving their departures? Join POLITICO on Oct. 27 for "The Exit Interview," a virtual event that will feature a conversation with departing members where they'll explain why they decided to leave office and what challenges face their parties ahead. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | | — "A South Florida judge on Friday dropped charges against a Miami man swept up in Gov. Ron DeSantis' push to crack down on voter fraud, signaling an early legal loss for the administration's highly touted elections investigation unit," POLITICO's Matt Dixon reports . The judge determined that the Office of the Statewide Prosecutor, which brought the charges on behalf of the newly-formed Florida Office of Election Crimes and Security "doesn't have jurisdiction because it doesn't cover multiple judicial circuits, which is a requirement for the statewide prosecutor to get involved. The state argued that because the initial voter registration application was filled out in Miami-Dade County and processed in Leon County, the Office of Statewide Prosecutor could bring the charges." — The Maricopa County Elections Department said two armed individuals dressed in tactical gear were at its Mesa, Ariz., ballot drop box on Friday. After law enforcement arrived, the individuals left. "We are deeply concerned about the safety of individuals who are exercising their constitutional right to vote and who are lawfully taking their early ballot to a drop box," Maricopa County Board of Supervisors Chair Bill Gates and Recorder Stephen Richer said in a statement. "Uninformed vigilantes outside Maricopa County's drop boxes are not increasing election integrity. Instead they are leading to voter intimidation complaints." Maricopa County is Arizona's most populous county.
| | | — Austin John Durrer, the manager for Democrat Charlie Crist's Florida gubernatorial campaign, was arrested in a domestic violence case last week, a day before the campaign announced he resigned, NBC News' Marc Caputo reports . Sydney Throop, who has been handling day-to-day operations, is now leading the campaign. CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "Trump's 2019 El Paso rally cost the city nearly $500,000. He still hasn't paid the bill." ( Houston Chronicle )
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