CO2 to rise 10% despite nations' pledges

Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation

Oct 26, 2022 View in browser   By Arianna Skibell A man on a rooftop looks at approaching flames near Camarillo, Calif. | David McNew/Getty Images Planet-warming carbon emissions are heading in the wrong direction: up. If every country meets its climate targets, which is already a stretch, greenhouse gas emissions will rise 10.6 percent by 2030 compared to 2010 levels, a United Nations report said Wednesday. The report comes as world leaders are set to gather in Egypt for next month's international climate summit, highlighting the global struggle to move away from burning fossil fuels for energy. The report's findings are technically an improvement from last year's assessment, which predicted emissions would rise 13.7 percent. But staving off catastrophic warming would require a 43 percent reduction in emissions by decade's end, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. That would limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, the threshold for preventing catastrophic changes to the planet — and a target that many climate scientists now say is probably unrealistic. The U.N. report found that current governmental pledges to slash carbon pollution will likely allow the world to warm between 2.1 and 2.9 degrees by 2100. Surpassing the 1.5 degree threshold is expected to decimate biodiversity and significantly compromise clean air, drinking water, food security and political stability. That could lead to hundreds of thousands of additional deaths per year, according to the World Health Organization . A recent study published in the journal Nature found an even graver number: Climate change would cause 83 million excess deaths by 2100. And every additional tenth of a degree of warming will significantly increase the risk of malnutrition, malaria and heat stroke, not to mention destruction brought by hurricanes, wildfires and floods. In a statement, U.N. Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said only 24 countries submitted new or updated emission reduction plans since last year's international climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland. He called the number "disappointing." At the same time, a recent report from the Lancet Countdown group found that governments are continuing to give generous subsidies to fossil fuel companies. Those subsidies far outweigh the funding provided to poor countries bearing the brunt of climate change. "Government decisions and actions must reflect the level of urgency, the gravity of the threats we are facing, and the shortness of the time we have remaining to avoid the devastating consequences of runaway climate change," Stiell said.   It's Wednesday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host,  Arianna Skibell.  Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to  askibell@eenews.net. Listen to today's POLITICO Energy podcast Today in POLITICO Energy's podcast: Jordan Wolman explains why a group of congressional Democrats is calling on JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo to stop working with the conservative State Financial Officers Foundation. Trouble in OPEC land President Joe Biden fist bumps Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on his recent visit to Saudi Arabia. | Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace via AP Photo Biden administration officials thought they had a secret deal with Saudi Arabia to boost oil production. After Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced last month he intended to slash production, Biden aides are infuriated that they were duped, The New York Times reported late Tuesday. The Saudi Energy Ministry denies such a deal ever existed, but the recent episode is a revealing example of the fraying relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia. While the U.S. is now the world's top oil producer, the administration fears that if the Saudis refuse to increase production as a European embargo on Russian oil takes effect, prices could skyrocket this winter. Power Centers Larry Puccio (left) is a federal energy lobbyist and a close friend of Sen. Joe Manchin. | Illustration by Claudine Hellmuth/E&E News Meet Manchin's "unconditional friend" Larry Puccio leveraged his connections with Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin to enter the federal lobbying scene for the first time last year. The move put large energy companies within earshot of Manchin as he molded historic climate legislation to include prizes for the fossil fuel industry, writes Scott Waldman . The kinship reveals Manchin's closeness to an industry at the center of congressional and scientific scrutiny for contributing to rising temperatures. Midterm energy boost If Republicans take the House or Senate majority in next month's midterm elections, they'll have the oil and natural gas industry to thank — at least to an extent, writes Timothy Cama . Oil and gas companies have been among some of the biggest donors to the Congressional Leadership Fund and the Senate Leadership Fund since the beginning of last year, federal campaign disclosures show. "Zero-pollution" progress The European Commission on Wednesday proposed tightening the EU's air quality guidelines, meaning countries will have to take steps to slash exposure to major pollutants, writes Antonia Zimmermann . The proposal suggests tightening limits for a number of the key air pollutants by 2030 as part of its plan to reach "zero pollution" by midcentury. in other news Fracking U-turn: Newly installed U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reinstated the nation's ban on fracking, ditching Liz Truss' policies. "Our horses are ready": Native Americans and white farmers have formed an unlikely alliance to oppose a pipeline in the Dakotas.   NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID .     Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. An electric school bus leased by Beverly Public Schools in Massachusetts. | Michael Casey/AP Photo The Biden administration will send nearly $1 billion to school districts to buy more than 2,300 electric school buses. China is buying up America's natural gas — sparking worries across Washington and fueling a potential new clash between the two global powers. Natural gas prices have dropped more than 40 percent since August, signaling potential relief from high U.S. heating bills this winter. That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.   JOIN WOMEN RULE THURSDAY FOR A TALK WITH DEPARTING MEMBERS OF CONGRESS: A historic wave of retirements is hitting Congress, including several prominent Democratic women such as Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, House Democrats' former campaign chief. What is driving their departures? Join POLITICO on Oct. 27 for "The Exit Interview," a virtual event that will feature a conversation with departing members where they'll explain why they decided to leave office and what challenges face their parties ahead. REGISTER HERE .       Follow us on Twitter Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell   Follow us

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