‘Forward-looking’ Pentagon plan won’t look into past civilian casualties

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Oct 20, 2022 View in browser   By Lara Seligman , Matt Berg and Alexander Ward Afghans inspect damage of Ahmadi family house after U.S. drone strike in Kabul, Afghanistan. Lt. Col. Cesar Santiago-Santini provided the first clarity as to how an overhaul of DoD's strategy to reduce civilian casualties — which was released in August — will apply to older, already adjudicated cases. | Khwaja Tawfiq Sediqi/AP Photo With help from Connor O'Brien and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The Pentagon has decided it isn't up for reinvestigating old civilian casualty cases — even those that were wrongly dismissed, a spokesperson tells LARA SELIGMAN. The comments by Lt. Col. CESAR SANTIAGO-SANTINI provide the first clarity as to how an overhaul of DoD's strategy to reduce civilian casualties — which was released in August — will apply to older, already adjudicated cases. Santiago-Santini said the plan also will not involve reopening past cases in which civilian casualties were confirmed but the department did not make amends to the victims' families. The agency will, however, continue its policy of reviewing cases if new evidence emerges, he added. The Pentagon's action plan, "is a forward-looking document that focuses on how DoD will further refine our capabilities and processes to better mitigate and respond to civilian harm, and provisions relating to reevaluation of past incidents of civilian harm are therefore outside the scope of this plan," Santiago-Santini said in a statement. Back when the Pentagon's 36-page action plan for reducing civilian casualties was released, it wasn't clear if it would apply to old cases. Santiago-Santini's comments settle that question — and in a way, that definitely doesn't satisfy groups focused on preventing civilian casualties. The groups had pressed DoD to reopen previous cases as part of the overhaul, in part to learn lessons from past mistakes. "If you don't reopen those cases, you don't really understand what's gone wrong," said EMILY TRIPP, director of U.K.-based airstrike monitoring group Airwars. "Can you really know if you're getting to learn your lessons if you don't know why the thing has gone wrong in the first place?" They've long urged the Pentagon to provide better accounting of civilian casualties, many of which they say have been improperly adjudicated or summarily dismissed. The August directive proposed broad changes to military planning, training and doctrine aimed at helping commanders better understand risks to civilians before operations even begin. Santiago-Santini said that, in the near term, DoD "will further expand the sources of information used in assessments and investigations so that DoD has access to more information and is more capable of assessing and investigating the results of military operations." Read more in Lara's full story .   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today .     The Inbox WE'RE WATCHING YOU, RUSSIA: U.S. officials are watching Russia's threats of nuclear weapons "very, very carefully" but have found no reason to change its nuclear posture toward Moscow yet, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN told ABC News' GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS . "We've been very clear with President [VLADIMIR] PUTIN directly and privately about the severe consequences that would follow from any use of a nuclear weapon," Blinken said. The SecState also noted that the U.S. wants to have the "strongest possible hand at a negotiating table if one emerges," since Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY has said he believes diplomacy will play a part in ending the war eventually. DRONE PROBE: The U.S. government has learned more about the technology and structure of Russia's Iranian-made drones after viewing wreckage of the weapons that were shot down in Ukraine, The Washington Post reports , citing two anonymous officials. The new information could help Ukraine and its allies better identify and manage the drones before they strike, similar to a process previously used to study weapons used by Iran's proxies during conflicts in the Middle East, the officials said. It's unclear how the U.S. gained access to the wrecked drone. The Shahed drones fly very low and, with what appears to be few metallic parts, are difficult for radars and other sensors to detect in time, a Ukrainian official told The Post. Studying the wreckage might help with detection. IRANIANS IN CRIMEA: A "relatively small number" of Iranians have trained Russian troops in Crimea on how to pilot UAVs, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Thursday, Matt and KELLY HOOPER report . While Iranian troops haven't flown the drones themselves, their technical support has been critical for Russian soldiers unfamiliar with the technology, Kirby told reporters. Some of UAVs that Iranians assisted with include those that struck Kyiv on Monday, he added. "The fact is this: Tehran is now directly engaged on the ground and through the provision of weapons that… are killing civilians and destroying civilian infrastructure in Ukraine," he said. IT'S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 . While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 and @Lawrence_Ukenye . A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security. Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more.   Flashpoints SOUTH KOREA BACKED BY NUKES: A State Department spokesperson on Wednesday said South Korea has all U.S. military capabilities on its side, seemingly dismissing the need for nukes to be deployed to the country, The Korea Times reports . When asked about the possibility of deploying nuclear arms to South Korea at a presser, spokesperson VEDANT PATEL pivoted, saying Seoul is backed by the "full range" of U.S. defense capabilities. His comments come as the northern neighbor is expected to conduct a nuclear test in the near future. FINNISH THE NATO BID: Though Finnish Prime Minister SANNA MARIN doesn't expect Hungary and Turkey to block her country's NATO bid, she hopes it's ratified "as soon as possible" to avoid potential risks as Russia's neighbor, she tells our own LILI BAYER in an interview . Marin spoke with Hungarian leader VIKTOR ORBÁN and Turkey's President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN, saying there "shouldn't be any problem" with Finland's application. "It would be very important that the ratification process would go smoothly, because there might be, of course, elements when it comes to the security environment," she said before a European Union leaders' summit on Thursday. WHAT'S GOING ON IN NK?: It looks like North Korea might be preparing to hold a "large-scale event," with planes parked in front of the capital's airport Wednesday and Thursday, according to NK News' COLIN ZWIRKO . By analyzing satellite imagery, Zwirko observed a setup at the Pyongyang International Airport terminal similar to ceremonial guest arrivals in the past. Such plane formation was seen at the airport in April and July for a military parade and war veterans event, respectively, though activity like this has been infrequent ever since North Korea stopped regular Air Koryo flights at the beginning of the pandemic. Keystrokes CYBER STRATEGY INBOUND: c said Wednesday that the White House plans to roll out its long-anticipated national cyber strategy in the coming months, our friends MAGGIE MILLER and ERIC GELLER report in Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) . "It will probably come out in the next month or two or three given the processes that exist in Washington," Inglis said at cybersecurity group Mandiant's mWISE conference. "It will be the work of the collective whole of everyone we've engaged." The Biden administration is currently reviewing the strategy, and the Office of the National Cyber Director plans to submit it to the National Security Council's Deputies Committee this week, according to two senior U.S. officials and another individual familiar with the matter. The strategy, aimed at building cyber cooperation globally, will incorporate input from hundreds of government and private groups.   SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY .     The Complex FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — The Pentagon's five-year spending blueprint comes up short on money to fully accomplish its modernization efforts, according to a new analysis of DoD's fiscal 2023 budget request and future years' spending plans from TODD HARRISON, managing director of Metrea Strategic Insights. There's "a short-lived push for innovation" in Pentagon plans, Harrison told NatSec Daily, as research and development dollars are projected to peak in fiscal 2024 and decline through 2027. And while weapons procurement grows, the analysis notes that much of those dollars are devoted more to recapitalizing existing weapons — such as buying new fighters and ships — over fielding new technologies. Personnel costs are slated to be the largest growing portion of DoD's budget over five years, though high inflation may render that an underestimation. Operations and maintenance funding is projected to remain steady, Harrison notes that defies historical trends. "For the first year of the five-year projection in this budget, I think they did a pretty decent job of trying to balance all of these competing concerns," Harrison said. "It's in the later years that I think the budget request becomes out of balance and starts to become unrealistic." Harrison's analysis also highlights a "strategically and budgetarily significant" amount of budget "dark matter," unspecific R&D spending under the office of the Defense Secretary that grows each year and reaches nearly $19 billion in 2027. Some of the funding, he notes, could represent a special fund for R&D purposes or be a means of preserving budget flexibility for Pentagon leaders to allocate money to programs within the military services in future budgets. On the Hill FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — Rep. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.) and Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) sent a letter to House and Senate Armed Service Committee chairs on Thursday urging lawmakers to keep a provision in the National Defense Authorization Act that would close loopholes in the Leahy Laws. Despite the Leahy Laws' aim to prohibit assistance to countries with egregious human rights violations, the U.S. can still authorize support for countries that have had "serious concerns" raised in the State Department's human rights report , the lawmakers wrote. Under two codes, the U.S. can expend more than $100 million to countries with questionable human rights records, including those that support U.S. efforts "to combat terrorism" and "support authorized irregular warfare operations" by U.S. forces. "This provision would strengthen the U.S. commitment to human rights by increasing vetting measures to ensure that recipients of U.S. support have not committed human rights violations or violations of international humanitarian law," Jacobs and Van Hollen wrote in the letter, which was co-signed by 13 other lawmakers including Sens. PATRICK LEAHY (D-Vt.) and DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.). Broadsides WILL HE, WON'T HE: Despite House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY's comments about ending aid to Ukraine , Biden aides privately believe the California lawmaker wouldn't totally shut off the funding funnel — at least for a while — should Republicans take the House in November, our own ANDREW DESIDERIO and JONATHAN LEMIRE report . Aides forecast internal pressure from prominent Republicans, including Pennsylvania Rep. BRIAN FITZPATRICK and Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL, to keep the money coming. Their reasoning? If aid to Ukraine suddenly stopped and Russia emerged triumphant from the war, that wouldn't look so good for Republicans. "Nobody's talking about a blank check. It's what [Ukraine] needs," Fitzpatrick said in an interview, referring to McCarthy's comments. War fatigue is "something that Vladimir Putin banks on, that it's no longer going to capture the front page of the newspaper … and people are going to forget about it and the genocide will be occurring in the darkness. We're trying to prevent that."     Transitions — LIZ TRUSS resigned as U.K. prime minister after less than two months in the job, our own MATT HONEYCOMBE-FOSTER reports . — RICHARD HAASS will step down as president of the Council on Foreign Relations after serving in the post for nearly two decades, The New York Times' MICHAEL CROWLEY reports . — HARRY MOURTOS is now acting deputy chief of cyber assessments at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. He most recently was a senior policy adviser in the Office of the National Cyber Director. — MARIAH SIXKILLER is now general manager for strategic defense affairs at Microsoft. She most recently was director of government affairs at the company. — DINA POWELL MCCORMICK has been named chair of the Robin Hood Foundation. McCormick, who was deputy national security adviser in the Trump administration, most recently was the nonprofit's vice chair and global head of sustainability and inclusive growth at Goldman Sachs. —  JAMES GALKOWSKI is now a partner at Silicon Valley Defense Group. He most recently was an MBA candidate at the University of Cambridge and is a U.S. Navy and Trump White House alum. What to Read — FRANÇOIS DIAZ-MAURIN, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: Nowhere To Hide: How a nuclear war would kill you — and almost everyone else — TIMOTHY WILLIAM WATERS, The Atlantic: How to Move Borders Without a War — IGOR CHERKASKYI, Bloomberg: It's Time to Sanction Russia as the Terrorist State It's Become Tomorrow Today — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Discussion with French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs CATHERINE COLONNA on "Transatlantic Relations" — The Middle East Policy Council, 10 a.m.: "Iran: Historical Context and Latest Developments" — Georgetown University's Africa-China Initiative, 12:30 p.m.: "Chinese Activities and their Impacts on African Countries's Peace and Security" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is always watching us "very, very carefully." And we thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who impressively stays sane while putting this together. A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security. Lockheed Martin is helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating our digital transformation. That means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins so you can anticipate maintenance and reduce downtime. It means deep knowledge of your missions. It means industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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