Inside the Senate’s two most pivotal races

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Oct 17, 2022 View in browser   By Calder McHugh With help from Alice Miranda Ollstein Sen. Raphael Warnock speaks next to an empty podium set up for Republican challenger Herschel Walker, who was invited but did not attend, during a U.S. Senate debate. | AP Photo/Ben Gray SOUTH BY SOUTHWEST — We're roughly three weeks away from Election Day, and control of the U.S. Senate is coming down to a few key races where the polling margins remain small. POLITICO's Election Forecast has four Senate seats in the toss-up category: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada. At the moment, Sens. Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada appear to be the most imperiled Democratic incumbents. If Democrats can hold those two seats, they are likely to retain control of the Senate. Warnock maintains a small advantage over Republican Herschel Walker while Cortez Masto trails ever so slightly against Republican Adam Laxalt, according to polling averages. To understand the pivotal nature of these two states this year and break down the two Senate races, Nightly spoke with POLITICO's Senior Campaigns and Elections Editor Steven Shepard . Why are these two races so important to control of the Senate and what are some similarities and differences between them that you see? At its core, the battle to control the Senate is a numbers game. Republicans need to net one seat and get to 51 in order to flip the majority, and the two most vulnerable Democratic incumbents are clearly Sens. Raphael Warnock and Catherine Cortez Masto. If Republicans hold all of their vulnerable seats, they only need to flip one Democratic seat. But if they lose Pennsylvania, they need two seats — and Georgia and Nevada are their best bets. These are two of our toss-up races, but the most obvious difference is — for now — Cortez Masto trails Republican Adam Laxalt in the polling average, while Warnock leads embattled GOP challenger Herschel Walker. Exactly how much spending can we expect to see between these two races? Is there a significant spending gap between the parties and affiliated PACs? Are there different messages in, say, Laxalt vs. Walker ads, or Cortez Masto vs. Warnock ads? The numbers are staggering. We just got the candidates' financial reports for the third quarter over the weekend. From July 1-Sept. 30 alone, the four candidates combined to spend more than $70 million — and that doesn't count the outside groups, which are set to combine for roughly $100 million in Georgia and just a little less than that in Nevada, when all is said and done. While Warnock and Cortez Masto have more money than their opponents, GOP outside groups have spent big to close the gap. Republicans' ads have an overwhelming focus: inflation, namely tying the spike in prices to legislation passed by the Democratic Congress and signed into law by President Joe Biden. The Mitch McConnell-linked Senate Leadership Fund is currently hitting Warnock for "enabling Joe Biden and crushing Georgians, voting for trillions in reckless spending, causing inflation and higher prices." And in Nevada, their latest ad says Cortez Masto "rubber-stamped" Biden's "reckless spending, triggering record inflation and sky-high prices." The Democratic messages do differ between the states, but that's mostly because of Walker's unique vulnerabilities. Warnock's most recent ad featured Republican voters talking about why they can't support Walker, citing his "lies," "bizarre statements" and "history of violence." The latest ad from Democrats' top super PAC in Nevada, meanwhile, tries to spin high gas prices around on Laxalt, calling him "Big Oil's best buddy." Some recent polling suggests that the inflation message may be breaking through , cutting into Democrats' leads or widening deficits from over the summer. Is it correct to say that message has had more success in the Nevada Senate race than in Georgia, where Warnock's small lead has remained steady? Or are there other factors at play? To the extent that the inflation argument is working better for Republicans in Nevada than Georgia — and, to be clear, the polling is clear that inflation is the dominant issue most everywhere — it might be because the spike in prices is greater in Nevada than in Georgia. I also want to mention the longer-term political trends in each state: Georgia went from Romney +8, to Trump +5, to Biden +0 over the past three presidential elections. Its demographics — a sizable Black population and lots of well-educated white voters — point to why it's been trending leftward. Nevada, by contrast, went from Obama +7, to Clinton +2, to Biden +3. It's not moving as quickly to the right as Georgia is moving left, but Nevada's demographics (more working-class voters and a larger Latino population) mean Republicans have opportunities to grow even though GOP presidential candidates have lost four consecutive elections there. And in the last three weeks, what should we be looking for that might move the needle in either of these important races? Well, it won't be debates. Last Friday's meeting between Warnock and Walker was their only one on the books, and there's no debate planned in Nevada whatsoever (the two candidates combined to commit to five debates, though there was no overlap). In Georgia, I'm most interested in seeing where views of Walker land after all of these negative ads and Walker's well-documented checkered past. Can he get swing voters and moderate Republicans to pull the lever for him? In Nevada, the final three weeks will put Democrats' once-vaunted turnout machine in the state to the test. Outside of Dems' 2014 flop, the party has a history of getting its voters to the polls and pulling out close races. But this year, Republicans have momentum, and there are questions about whether Democrats have their act together . Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight's author at cmchugh@politico.com or on Twitter at @calder_mchugh .   NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS  – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID .     DISPATCH FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL Thousands of canvassers are hitting the streets of Michigan in the final weeks of one of the most heated abortion rights battles in the country. Our health care reporter Alice Miranda Ollstein just returned from a week of trailing them as voters prepare to decide on Nov. 8 whether to insert language into the state constitution to explicitly protect the right to abortion.  Abortion-rights protesters attend a rally outside the state capitol in Lansing, Michigan, in June 2022. | AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File ABORTION RIGHTS BATTLEGROUND — Recent polls indicate overwhelming support for the referendum in the swing state, and the pro-abortion rights side had a significant head start in fundraising, amassing more than $8 million before the measure even officially qualified for the ballot. But anti-abortion groups are not taking the fight lying down. They've spent more than $4 million on TV ads alone in recent weeks, and are also pushing their message to churches, college campuses, local chambers of commerce and at voters' doors. Last Wednesday in Wyoming, Mich., just south of Grand Rapids, one staffer and one volunteer with Students for Life, a national anti-abortion group opposing the amendment, handed out leaflets in the pouring rain. Their Michigan deployment is part of the group's multimillion-dollar post-Roe goal of knocking on 250,000 doors in 33 states to elect anti-abortion canadidates and defeat ballot measures that would enshrine the right to the procedure. The reception that day was decidedly mixed. While some enthusiastically agreed with the group's argument that the proposed amendment goes too far in lifting restrictions on abortion, others took one look at the canvassers' shirts reading "the pro-life generation votes" and slammed the door — with one resident adding, "Get that shit out of here." One man who said he had already cast his ballot for the amendment declined to give his name out of fear of retaliation, citing how heated the debate around the issue has been in his community. "The government has got no business telling a woman what she can or can't do," he said. "I personally think it's wrong to take a life, but in certain circumstances, I think it's fine and dandy. It should be up to the woman. They're the ones who are going to have to deal with the big guy up there."   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today .     Poll Watcher 18 percentage points Republicans' current lead with independent women voters, a huge swing from Democrats' 14-point edge with the group in September, according to a new poll of likely voters from The New York Times/Siena College . The survey also showed that the economy is a more salient issue with voters than abortion. What'd I Miss? — Trump and Kanye speak amid rapper's anti-Semitic rants, aquisition of Parler: Former President Donald Trump spoke with Kanye West over the phone following the rapper's decision to buy his own social media platform , a personal familiar with the call told POLITICO. West placed the call, during which the two confirmed plans to have dinner though nothing is currently scheduled. Parler has agreed to fully sell the app to West, but the parties have yet to enter into a definitive purchase agreement. They expect to close on the deal in the fourth quarter of 2022. — DOJ recommends 6-month jail term for Bannon: The Justice Department is recommending a six-month jail sentence and $200,000 fine for Steve Bannon , the longtime adviser to Trump who defied a subpoena to the Jan. 6 select committee. Prosecutors said Bannon, from the moment he received the select committee subpoena on Sept. 2021, "has pursued a bad-faith strategy of defiance and contempt." — Biden Covid officials scramble to plan for Omicron subvariant threat: Top Biden health officials are increasingly concerned about the rise of new Covid variants in the U.S. that appear to evade existing treatments used to protect immunocompromised people from severe illness, according to three senior administration officials. The variants — known as BQ1 and BQ1.1 — have spread swiftly throughout the U.S. over the past few weeks, and now account for more than 11 percent of all cases nationwide, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, roughly double the proportion they represented a week earlier. — Trump Org excessively charged Secret Service for hotel stays, House panel reveals: Trump's company charged the Secret Service excessive nightly hotel rates on dozens of trips , according to new documents released today by the House Oversight Committee. The Secret Service was charged in excess of the government-allowed rate when Eric Trump, the former president's son and executive vice president of the Trump Organization, stayed in Washington, D.C. at the Trump-owned hotel with his wife Lara Trump, the House panel said. Citing new documents from the Secret Service, the Oversight Committee disclosed five stays at about three times the allowed rate. — Biden to host Israeli president at White House next week: Biden will host Israeli President Isaac Herzog for an official visit next week , White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said during a briefing today. The visit will be Herzog's first official trip to Washington since he assumed office in 2021. Biden and Herzog last met in July in Jerusalem. AROUND THE WORLD INSIDE PUTIN'S MIND — It's hard to imagine how Putin's war on Ukraine will conclude. Does Putin even have an endgame? If he really wants to control Ukrainian territory, why does he seem so bent on destroying it? To get insights into these questions, Maura Reynolds reached out to Fiona Hill, one of America's most clear-eyed observers of Russia and Putin, who served as an adviser to Trump and gained fame for her testimony in his first impeachment trial. In the early days of Russia's war on Ukraine, Hill warned in an interview with POLITICO that what Putin was trying to do was not only seize Ukraine but destroy the current world order. And she recognized from the start that Putin would use the threat of nuclear conflict to try to get his way. Now, despite the setbacks Russia has suffered on the battlefield, Hill thinks Putin is undaunted. She sees him adapting to new conditions, not giving up. And she sees him trying to get the West to accede to his aims by using messengers like billionaire Elon Musk to propose arrangements that would end the conflict on his terms. "Putin plays the egos of big men, gives them a sense that they can play a role. But in reality, they're just direct transmitters of messages from Vladimir Putin," Hill says. Read the whole interview here . Nightly Number $22.5 million The amount of money that Democratic Rep. Val Demings raised in the last quarter in her bid to unseat Republican Sen. Marco Rubio in Florida. Rubio brought in $9.8 million. She is one of many challengers — from both parties — who has a cash advantage over an incumbent. Radar Sweep WHEN COUNTING IS SUBJECTIVE — What counts as a bestseller in the book world ? It's a question that many people think has a defined answer — a number of books sold over a period of time, maybe. But "bestseller" lists actually vary from publication to publication and reflect editorial decisions that can often vault a book to success (it's nice to be able to say "New York Times Bestseller" on a jacket cover) or banish it to oblivion. Jordan Pruett investigates what this means for Public Books. Parting Image The startup union that clinched a historic labor victory at Amazon earlier this year is slated to face the company yet again, aiming to rack up another win that could force the reluctant retail behemoth to the negotiating table, according to The Associated Press. This time, the Amazon Labor Union and the nation's second-largest private employer are facing off in the town of Schodack, near Albany, N.Y. Workers at the warehouse there, which employs roughly 800 people according to Amazon, will finish voting in a union election today. The votes will be tallied Tuesday by the National Labor Relations Board. | Rachel Phua via AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Naomi Andu @naomiandu   Follow us

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