Kenney’s best next act ever

Oct 06, 2022

Send tips | Subscribe here | Follow Politico Canada

Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Today, we speculate responsibly about JASON KENNEY's future. Plus, the Supreme Court hears a headline-making case. And a veteran of Hill politics leaves a top-tier firm.

DRIVING THE DAY

KENNEY'S NEXT ACT — Alberta's United Conservatives elect a new leader this evening. The winner gets to be premier. The party is scheduled to livestream the results starting at 5:30 p.m. local time.

The favorite is DANIELLE SMITH, the talk-radio host and former leader of the now-defunct Wildrose Party whose proposed sovereignty act has made most of the race's out-of-province headlines. (The idea isn't to secede, merely to refuse to obey federal laws that a future Smith government deems unjust for her province. It would likely be unconstitutional.)

Smith is confident enough of her prospects, reports the Globe's KELLY CRYDERMAN, that she has a transition team and chief of staff waiting in the wings.

Some might worry about jinxing the win. Just ask someone in ANDREW SCHEER's 2019 war room about measuring the drapes before the results are in.

The other candidates are LEELA AHEER, BRIAN JEAN, TODD LOEWEN, TRAVIS TOEWS, RAJAN SAWHNEY and REBECCA SCHULZ.

— Riding into the sunset: Kenney exits the premier's office after a tumultuous tenure few would've predicted when he won a landslide victory in 2019. The former federal Cabmin managed to anger just about everybody in the pandemic — either lifting public health measures too early or ripping away his people's freedom, depending on the critic.

Twenty-five years after his first election sent him to Ottawa Kenney is still only 54 years old. That's a lot of working years left for a man who's mostly held elected office.

Playbook asked Conservatives who know him well, and Albertans who've watched his career since the beginning, for their best guesses at what's next.

— Captain of industry: Sitting around influential tables in the world of business, even if his resume includes little experience in those circles, was one of the most common predictions from Playbook's speculators. Few political animals in Canada have a keener understanding of federal-provincial dynamics than Kenney.

He has long championed Alberta's energy industry. As it happens, Enbridge is on the hunt for a new chair of the board.

— Big thinker: Kenney isn't a lawyer, but he wouldn't be the first without a law degree to advise a big firm. He need look no further than to former Cabinet colleagues JAMES MOORE and JOHN BAIRD for inspiration. Moore is a Vancouver-based senior business adviser at Dentons. Baird holds the same title at Bennett Jones.

— Place your bets: Here's where DAVE COURNOYER, a plugged-in writer and podcaster in Edmonton, sees the future former premier:

"He'll have a soft landing. I expect we'll see him appointed to a few corporate boards and increase his involvement with conservative think-tanks and advocacy groups in Canada and the U.S. And as we've seen over the past few months, he probably won't hesitate to publicly comment on Alberta politics and his successors, especially when it comes to his legacy as Premier."

— Man of God: Another option? The priesthood. Kenney studied philosophy at the Jesuit-run St. Ignatius Institute at the University of San Francisco in the 1980s. A pair of Kenney-adjacent Conservatives speculated, with no tongue-in-cheek intended, that the premier could recommit himself to the church.

"It's as likely that you'll not hear of him much. Politics is over. He never had an interest in business. And serious business people know that," said one observer. "At one point in his life, joining the priesthood was a serious option. He may find faith and go all in."

— Lord's messenger: If the soon-to-be-former pol doesn't want to don the robes, another Tory floated an adjacent opportunity: Canada's ambassador to the Holy See. A certain future PM could have the opportunity to make that appointment.

— Temporary retiree: In the short-term, said someone familiar with Kenney's thinking: "Enjoy spending less time on Highway 2," the road between the legislature in Edmonton and Kenney's home base in Calgary. "Read. Relax. Reflect."

For your radar

ROXHAM ROAD TO WELLINGTON STREET — The Supreme Court of Canada will hear arguments today in a high-profile case that could have profound consequences for refugees who seek asylum in Canada. Watch it here.

Lawyers repping a long list of refugee advocacy groups will argue the court should strike down the Safe Third Country Agreement, a Canada-U.S. deal that forces refugees to seek asylum in the first of the two countries they reach.

— Their argument: Refugees who attempt to cross at official border crossings are supposed to be turned back. But advocates say the 20-year-old agreement wrongly considers the United States a "safe" place to claim asylum. ALEKS DUGHMAN-MANZUR, the president of the Canadian Council for Refugees, said in a news release the deal is "built on a false premise."

Dughman-Manzur outlined the main argument the justices will hear today:

"Despite the change in administration in the U.S., people sent back to the U.S. under the STCA continue to be at high risk of detention in abhorrent conditions. And some, including people facing gender-based persecution, are unfairly denied protection in the U.S. and sent back into danger in their countries of origin — a clear violation of their basic human rights."

— The timeline: In July 2020, the Federal Court ruled in favor of the advocates. In April 2021, the Federal Court of Appeal overturned that decision. The Supremes agreed to hear the case last December. There's no timeline for the SCC's ruling.

— The elephant in the room: As Maura Forrest wrote earlier in Monday's Playbook, an unofficial crossing at Roxham Road that typically attracts thousands of asylum seekers every month is back in the headlines.

Radio-Canada reported that federal coffers have coughed up more than half a billion dollars on infrastructure near the Quebec crossing to manage the flow of newcomers. Opposition MPs have questions for ministers. Meanwhile, the number of refugees arriving at Roxham Road has reached a six-year high.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT — DONA CADMAN testified by video at the procedure and House affairs committee on Tuesday. MPs are reflecting on the hybrid Parliament era and they invited a panel of current and former MPs — including Cadman, a one-term Conservative who was also married to another parliamentarian, the late CHUCK CADMAN.

Cadman argued in favor of the hybrid model, insisting it allows parliamentarians to serve constituents more efficiently — cutting down on travel and allowing them to work through illness as they're able. Through the tough times, essentially.

Her opening sentence earned high marks for keeping it real.

"Something happened this weekend that made me stop and say what the f--k — why do sh--ty things happen to good people?"

To which Playbook replies: Here here.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— PM JUSTIN TRUDEAU will chair Cabinet at 10 a.m., and attend question period at 2 p.m.

— Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is in Peru for a meeting of the Organization of American States.

9 a.m. The Parliamentary Budget Officer releases a cost estimate on Bill C-18, the Online News Act.

9:15 a.m. In the House foyer, Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami President NATAN OBED and Health Minister PATTY HAJDU will make an announcement "to further support the National Inuit Suicide Prevention Strategy."

10 a.m. National Supply Chain Task Force co-chairs JEAN GATTUSO and LOUISE YAKO will hold a newser to discuss their findings. A media availability will follow.

11:50 a.m. (12:50 p.m. AT) Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM speaks at the Halifax Chamber of Commerce.

1 p.m. Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA will respond to the supply chain task force.

MEDIA ROOM

— "As her resume reveals, practically everything Smith touches goes south," the National Post's JESSE KLINE writes of DANIELLE SMITH. Kline wonders if the biggest winner of the UCP leadership race could be RACHEL NOTLEY's NDP.

— The federal Tories haven't lost the popular vote since 2015. Pollster NIK NANOS says PIERRE POILIEVRE's party is currently projected to win the seat count, too. (338Canada's PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER , who correctly predicted the result in all but two of Quebec's ridings this week, also gives the Tories a tiny edge.)

What are you reading? Playbook wants to know.

— A New York Times interactive looks at India's monsoon and the ways global warming is making it stronger and less predictable.

— TVO's JOHN MICHAEL MCGRATH says a new report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation demonstrates why "wait for the baby boomers to die" can no longer substitute for housing policy.

Point us to your favorite pods.

PROZONE

If you're a subscriber, don't miss our latest newsletter by MAURA FORREST and ZI-ANN LUM: The rising pressure on Hockey Canada.

In other Pro headlines:

— Ethics committee recommends 'national pause' on facial recognition technology.
— OPEC oil cut sparks war of words with Biden administration.
— U.S., Europe whip U.N. votes for historic Russia rebuke.
— U.S. Treasury gets to work executing 'complicated' clean energy tax credits.
— U.S. sends carrier toward Korean Peninsula as militaries step up response to missile test.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to Windsor's SANDRA PUPATELLO (6-0). Birthday greetings also go to CHAVIVA HOSEK, professor and former director of policy in the Chrétien PMO; and longtime public servant MARGARET CATLEY-CARLSON (8-0).

Birthdays, gatherings, social notices: Send them our way.

Spotted: Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY shaking hands with her Peruvian counterpart CÉSAR LANDA … Housing and Diversity Inclusion Minister AHMED HUSSEN meeting with Panamanian Ambassador ROMY VASQUEZ MORALES … Saskatchewan Premier SCOTT MOE, trolling Liberals on Twitter.

— In the House: PAM DAMOFF sharing praise for Come From Away, which ended its five-year run on Broadway last weekend. … TAKO VAN POPTA giving a shout-out to WADE REDDEN, now a development coach with the Ottawa Senators. … FRANCIS DROUIN and COREY TOCHOR celebrating "Canadian Beer Day."

Movers and shakers: YAROSLAV BARAN , formerly Earnscliffe Strategies' managing principal in Ottawa and the company's strategic communications chief, is leaving his post. Baran is a veteran Tory operative in government and opposition. He headed up media relations on three CPC campaigns in the Harper years. He also gained extensive experience in the Office of the Leader of the Opposition under Harper. A propos of that: Baran hasn't announced his next gig. All he'd say: "Watch this space."

There's a new manager of communications in House Speaker ANTHONY ROTA's office. AMÉLIE CROSSON takes over from HEATHER BRADLEY, who's 29-year run as d-comm has come to an end.

SIMON NOËL was named Canada's intelligence commissioner. Carleton prof and former national security analyst STEPHANIE CARVIN predicted chaos at CSIS, Spongebob-style.

ADAM MIRON, the executive chair and interim CEO of Brane Digital Asset Custody, joined the board at Ingenium Foundation.

— Ottawa mayoral candidate MARK SUTCLIFFE picked up the endorsement of a pair of elected people from suburban Nepean: MP CHANDRA ARYA and MPP LISA MACLEOD.

Arya is the third local MP to side with Sutcliffe, alongside JENNA SUDDS and MARIE-FRANCE LALONDE. The rest of the city's federal caucus is undeclared, at least publicly. YASIR NAQVI, whose riding includes the ward of city councilor and mayoral contender CATHERINE MCKENNEY, gave kudos to Sutcliffe's downtown revitalization plan.

DAVID MCGUINTY hasn't pledged allegiance to Sutcliffe, but his brother — longtime politico BRENDAN — is a Sutcliffe supporter.

Media mentions: CBC journalist DUNCAN MCCUE's new book, "Decolonizing Journalism", "hot off the press" and in the hands of TMU journalism prof NICOLE BLANCHETT.

Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com.

On the Hill

— Find the latest House committee meetings here.

— Keep track of Senate committees here.

9 a.m. The Senate agriculture and forestry committee meets to continue its study of soil health in Canada.

9 a.m. Senators will hear from four of their own (Sen. PATRICIA BOVEY, Sen. COLIN DEACON, Sen. ELIZABETH MARSHALL and Sen. ROSEMARY MOODIE) at the Senate's powerful internal economy, budgets and administration committee as they study "financial and administrative matters."

9 a.m. Five department officials from Fisheries and Oceans Canada will be at the Senate fisheries and oceans committee to answer questions from senators studying Canada's seal population and its impact on fisheries.

10 a.m. International Energy Agency hydrogen and alternative fuels analyst JOSÉ MIGUEL BERMUDEZ will be a witness at the Senate's energy, environment and natural resources committee.

11 a.m. The House public safety committee meets to hear from Communications Security Establishment Chief CAROLINE XAVIER and Chief of the Defense Staff Gen. WAYNE EYRE about Canada's security posture in relation to Russia.

11 a.m. The House official languages committee continues its study of Bill C-13 with testimony from Official Languages Commissioner RAYMOND THÉBERGE.

11 a.m. The House procedure and House affairs committee meets to continue its study of hybrid proceedings with the translation bureau, International Association of Conference Interpreters and CAPE among the day's witnesses.

11 a.m. The House national defense committee meets to hear testimony from DAVID REDMAN, the former head of Emergency Management Alberta, as part of its study on rising domestic operational deployments and challenges facing the military.

11:30 a.m. Liberal MP JOËL LIGHTBOUND hosts a presentation on artificial intelligence in the Wellington Building in Ottawa.

11:30 a.m. The Senate banking, commerce and economy committee meets to study Bill S-215, Sen. LUCIE MONCION's Senate public bill proposing the drafting of proposals for federal initiatives to "ensure the financial stability of post-secondary institutions."

3:30 p.m. Auditor General KAREN HORGAN will be at the House veterans affairs committee to brief MPs on her report probing the processing of disability benefits for veterans.

3:30 p.m. HAMED ESMAEILION, president and spokesperson for the Association of Families of Flight PS752, will appear at the House justice committee 's meeting studying the government's obligations to victims of crime.

3:30 p.m. The House status of women committee meets to continue its study of mental health of young women and girls.

3:30 p.m. The House industry committee meets to continue its study of Bill C-235, Liberal MP JIM CARR's bill proposing the development of a framework to "build a green economy in the Prairie provinces."

3:30 p.m. Four department officials from public works and government services will be at the House government operations and estimates committee to take questions about diversity in procurement.

4:30 p.m. The House Indigenous and northern affairs committee emerges from in camera to hear from Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister Marc Miller on Bill C-29.

6:30 p.m. Former Ottawa police chief PETER SLOLY eter Sloly is the headlining witness at the special joint committee on the declaration of emergency.

7:30 p.m. The evening program begins at United Conservatives leadership election event headquarters in Calgary where a new party leader, and premier-designate, will be announced.

10:15 p.m. (8:15 p.m. MT) Governor General MARY SIMON delivers the annual LaFontaine-Baldwin Lecture at Calgary's Jack Singer Concert Hall. The theme is "reconciliation and the evolution of Canada." A moderated Q&A will follow her lecture.

— Behind closed doors: The House Indigenous and northern affairs committee's subcommittee on agenda and procedure meets to plan "future business"; the House health committee meets in camera to review a report of Canada's health workforce.

TRIVIA

Wednesday's answer: WILFRID LAURIER served in Parliament for 16,411 calendar days.

Props to LAURA JARVIS, whose answer of 16,462 days was closest to the Library of Parliament's official tally of 16,411.

Today's question: The current House Speaker's chair, which sat in storage for decades, dates to the speakership of EDGAR NELSON RHODES. In what year did he first take the chair?

a) 1921
b) 1917
c) 1905
d) 1934

Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Have a petition you want signed? A cause you're promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Alejandra Waase to find out how: awaase@politico.com.

Playbook wouldn't happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage and Sue Allan.

Follow us on Twitter