Misunderstanding Kevin McCarthy

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Oct 06, 2022 View in browser   By Elana Schor House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy in 2021. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images MCCARTHY'S MATH — He hasn't claimed the speaker's gavel yet, but House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy is already yoked to two brutal political narratives. They're both prematurely baked — and they're distracting his critics from what's really at stake in the next Congress. The first premature assumption about McCarthy is that he's somehow not savvy enough to lead the House GOP if it wins the majority in November. Demeaning his erudition is a popular pursuit in Washington (practiced by Speaker Nancy Pelosi herself), as if book-smarts have ever been a must-flaunt accessory in the party of college C-student Ronald Reagan.   Yet even beyond that portrait of McCarthy as an intellectual lightweight, critics say he's failed in his own efforts to clear his conference of conservative gadflies who could prove ungovernable in a future majority. A recent Bulwark column made a compelling case that McCarthy's been ineffective at evicting "the looniest of the loonies in the party" from his ranks. But like it or not — and his critics don't have to — McCarthy's never styled himself as an arbiter of responsible conservatism, out to smooth out the Trumpiest elements of the GOP. And he's rarely hinted that he finds the more bumptious members on his right flank to be real problems, aside from ousted Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.). Part of that may stem from the reality of the modern Freedom Caucus, as POLITICO's Olivia Beavers has catalogued : The hard-line group is now less formally conservative than a vehicle for Trumpism, and its members are increasingly less unified around the set of policy goals that sparked their loudest pushback against McCarthy's predecessors. The Freedom Caucus' most influential member, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), is now a McCarthy ally about to take the Judiciary Committee gavel. Its members aren't even planning right now to back a formal challenger to McCarthy in next year's speaker vote. So when McCarthy goes about picking horses in GOP primaries, he's not trying to dislodge all problematic conservatives from his conference at all — he's trying to lock in the majority he needs on the floor next year to claim the House's top gavel. And on that score, he's doing pretty well. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), perhaps the most divisive member of his conference, lauded McCarthy's "Commitment to America" agenda before it even came out. Which brings up the second premature narrative about McCarthy: that he's so beholden to former president Donald Trump and the right, his leadership of the House is bound to implode and toxify the GOP among independents the party will need come 2024. That may very well prove true. But there's a lot more of this current election cycle to play out before we know the answer. What's more, the answer may depend on the size of McCarthy's majority itself after Election Day. We already know that the more seats he has to work with, the easier he can breathe in the speakership race. The same thing is true of every tough vote he'll have to ask his conference to take in the 118th Congress (not that we're here to bore you with more prognostication on that). Instead, it's time to close on what's really at stake: McCarthy's treatment of Trump himself as the former president nears an all-but-certain third White House run. Ever since the Californian edged away from Trump in the wake of last year's Capitol siege — only to meet him in Mar-a-Lago days later — the possibility of a radioactive bargain has loomed for McCarthy. The more he hugs Trump to keep the former president's base onside, the more tightly McCarthy will be tied to Trump's legal travails, chaotic persona and support for Jan. 6 rioters — to the detriment of potential alternative GOP presidential contenders like Govs. Ron DeSantis (Fla.) and Glenn Youngkin (Va.). In order to gain steam in a 2024 primary, DeSantis and Youngkin will want top congressional Republicans to avoid falling in line immediately with the former president. So let's keep an eye on McCarthy's reaction the day Trump announces his run. When we asked months ago if he'd endorse Trump above all others, McCarthy "chuckled at the question, then said, 'I'm focused on this election.'" Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at eschor@politico.com or on Twitter at @eschor.   SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.     Poll Watcher 47 to 44 The size of Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock's lead over Republican Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate race, according to a new poll from InsiderAdvantage/FOX 5 conducted after the report that Walker paid for a girlfriend's abortion. The same poll had Walker with a 3-point advantage, also 47 percent to 44 percent, in early September. What'd I Miss? 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In addition, he is asking the Secretary of Health and Human Services and the Attorney General to "expeditiously" review how marijuana is scheduled under federal law. — Proud Boys leader pleads guilty over Jan. 6 actions: Jeremy Bertino, a North Carolina leader of the Proud Boys, pleaded guilty to seditious conspiracy today, becoming the first member of the group to admit to the charge stemming from the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Bertino appeared before U.S. District Court Judge Tim Kelly to enter his guilty plea, which also included a count of unlawful possession of a firearm. The seditious conspiracy charges against the Proud Boys leaders are the gravest leveled by the Justice Department against any of the more than 850 defendants charged in connection with the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. — Delaware judge delays Twitter-Musk trial: Elon Musk and Twitter now have until the end of the month to finalize the $44 billion deal for the billionaire to purchase the platform, a judge ruled today. Chancellor Kathaleen St. J. McCormick of the Delaware Court of Chancery said that the two parties have until Oct. 28 to close the deal — a win for Musk — after the Tesla CEO had pushed for a stay in the high-stakes trial. Musk had committed in an earlier filing today that he'd close the deal on or close to Oct. 28. — Federal judge blocks key provisions of New York's new gun-control laws: A federal judge temporarily blocked significant portions of New York's concealed carry law today . The decision dealt a blow to the state's gun-control efforts after the U.S. Supreme Court unraveled them earlier this summer. The state passed new measures after the high court found New York's longstanding licensing requirements were unconstitutionally subjective. The new rules attracted a legal challenge, and U.S. District Judge Glenn Suddaby said in an order today that some are "in essence … retaining (and even expanding) the open-ended discretion afforded to its licensing officers." — Top ally in Trump's 2020 election plot fights professional sanctions: A former Justice Department lawyer who became a close ally in Trump's effort to subvert the 2020 election is fighting to save his law license and stave off other professional discipline from the Washington, D.C. bar . Jeffrey Clark appeared for a lengthy proceeding today that is a prelude to a disciplinary hearing on claims he violated legal ethics in his persistent efforts to undercut the legitimacy of the 2020 election. The heart of the issue: Did Clark merely offer up unwise suggestions to his superiors — hardly the basis for disciplinary action — or did his persistence in the face of a lack of evidence of fraud render his conduct so inappropriate that he should be punished?   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.     AROUND THE WORLD South Korean Air Force F-15Ks and U.S. Air Force F-16 fighter jets fly over the Korean Peninsula in response to North Korea's intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) launch earlier in the day, on Oct. 4, 2022. | South Korean Defense Ministry via Getty Images RATCHETING UP — North Korea flew 12 warplanes near its border with South Korea today , prompting the South to scramble 30 military planes in response, Seoul officials said. The highly unusual incident came hours after North Korea fired two ballistic missiles into the sea in its sixth round of missile tests in less than two weeks. Eight North Korean fighter jets and four bombers flew in formation and were believed to have conducted air-to-surface firing drills, South Korea's military said. The military said South Korea responded by scrambling 30 fighter jets and other warplanes, though they didn't engage in any clash with the North Korean aircraft. It refused to provide further details, including how close to the border the North Korean planes flew. Tensions have risen sharply on the Korean Peninsula as North Korea's recent barrage of missile tests prompted South Korea, the United States and Japan to conduct joint drills in response. Nightly Number 66 The number of clinics across 15 states that have stopped providing abortions following the fall of Roe, according to a new report from the Guttmacher Institute, an abortion-rights advocacy and research group. Radar Sweep BACK TO SCHOOL — How do you teach students about the Supreme Court? It's a question that has plagued law schools for years, but one that has new relevance now that students are increasingly unable to see the court as anything but a purely political body in the wake of the overturning of Roe. Mark Joseph Stern reports on how professors are handling a new era of the court and with it, a new era of law students for Slate. Parting Words Republican nominee for Arizona governor Kari Lake speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference. | Brandon Bell/Getty Images GO YOUR OWN WAY — Arizona Republican Kari Lake is running for governor as a hard-charging outsider, writes Alex Isenstadt. Lake is looking to extend the GOP's 14-year hold on the Arizona governorship, but her campaign has little in common with the Republicans that ran before her. Lake calls herself her own campaign manager, believes political consultants "don't know what the hell they're talking about" and refuses to call big donors who are accustomed to being courted. She ignores advice from the Arizona political class and says she's not a "huge believer" in running TV ads, where campaigns typically spend most of their budget. Her "body man" works full-time as a realtor, her husband is her videographer and, until a few days ago, she had an old-school website that looked like it was designed during the early days of the Internet. And while other candidates use polling data to shape their strategy, Lake hasn't commissioned a single private survey since she won the primary — choosing instead, she says, to go with her instincts and interactions on the campaign trail. Lake's organization is also filled with young aides who are new to politics. The campaign has taken on a collegiate feel: During a visit to her headquarters last Thursday, several teenage staffers typed away on laptops. A nearby wall featured a poster of Lake superimposed onto the cover of an album by the rapper Drake. Read all about Lake's unorthodox campaign strategy here. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Naomi Andu @naomiandu   Follow us

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