NATO has air defenses on the brain

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Oct 11, 2022 View in browser   By Alexander Ward, Lara Seligman and Matt Berg Other immediate possibilities available for immediate donation to Ukraine include the U.S. Counter-Rocket, Artillery, Mortar system. | Ben Santos/U.S. Force Afghanistan public affairs With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex| Email Matt Two days of NATO meetings this week will be about one thing, and one thing only: How to get Ukraine the air defenses it needs, your host and LARA SELIGMAN reported. Russia bombarded civilian targets across Ukraine this weekend in retaliation for the bombing of its sole bridge to Crimea. Moscow struck a dozen cities, including Kyiv, hitting children's playgrounds and pedestrian bridges — primarily using air-launched cruise missiles. The attacks have so far killed at least 14 people and injured another 100. Meanwhile, Moscow has been deploying Iranian drones against Ukrainian soldiers and civilian infrastructure, with devastating effects. During his video address to the G-7 summit on Oct. 11, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said Ukrainian military intelligence showed Russia had ordered 2,400 Iranian Shahed-136 kamikaze drones. In response, the alliance plans to discuss how best to protect Ukrainian infrastructure from the deadly strikes, Ambassador JULIANNE SMITH said. Air defenses have emerged as the likeliest delivery in the near future. "We are now shifting again to air defense," Smith said in a briefing organized by her office, noting that in previous phases, NATO's response centered on what Ukraine needed at specific moments of the war, namely munitions and coastal defense. Air defenses will form the "crux of the conversation tomorrow," the first of two days of meetings at NATO headquarters in Brussels. The events will include a meeting of the NATO defense ministers, as well as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a gathering of military leaders headed by U.S. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN. But there's a problem: The West has few air defense systems available for immediate donation, said TOM KARAKO , a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. For example, Ukraine has asked for the U.S. Patriot missile defense system, but Washington has repeatedly said no due to the relative scarcity of the system, among other reasons. Other immediate possibilities include the German InfraRed Imaging System Tail, a short to medium-range infrared homing air-to-air missile, or the U.S. Counter-Rocket, Artillery, Mortar system. Israel's Iron Dome would also fit the bill, but Tel Aviv is expected to nix that proposal. "There's nowhere near enough to go around," Karako said. Read more in your host and Lara's full story.   JOIN WEDNESDAY FOR A TALK ON U.S.-CHINA AND XI JINPING'S NEW ERA:  President Xi Jinping will consolidate control of the ruling Chinese Communist Party later this month by engineering a third term as China's paramount leader, solidifying his rule until at least 2027. Join POLITICO Live for a virtual conversation hosted by Phelim Kine, author of POLITICO's China Watcher newsletter, to unpack what it means for U.S.-China relations. REGISTER HERE.     The Inbox FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — DELEGATION TO HAITI: The U.S. is sending a delegation to Haiti this week after the country's leadership requested foreign help to quell a surge in gang violence. Gangs seized roads and blocked access to fuel and food, leading Haiti's prime minister and the U.N. to ask other countries to establish a humanitarian corridor and even send police forces. It's unclear what the American delegation, headed by BRIAN NICHOLS, the assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere issues, will offer Haiti, if anything. But the trip comes shortly after State Department spokesperson NED PRICE said the U.S. would "review" Haiti's request for support "and determine how we can increase our support to help address Haiti's fuel shortage and security constraints." The State Department confirmed the timing of the trip to NatSec Daily but not who's leading the delegation. LIFE AFTER PUTIN: As Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN's military forces come under intense scrutiny amid the country's messy war with Ukraine, some of the country's elite appear to be calculating the exit of their leader, our own JAMIE DETTMER reports. In recent weeks, Kremlin insiders RAMZAN KADYROV and YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, normally close allies of the Russian leader, have been openly critical of "peacetime generals" in the Russian military. MIKHAIL KASYANOV, who once served as Putin's prime minister and now lives in exile, told Sky News he believes there will be a "crucial change" in three or four months. "Can he wiggle out, I don't know," Russian exile and prominent Putin critic MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY told POLITICO. "Prigozhin is under the control of Putin today. But he's also getting ready" for when Putin is no longer in power. "And he's building a relationship with Kadyrov." ROCKET REASONS: Remember all those North Korean missile tests last week? Well, North Korean state media revealed their purpose on Monday: Those rocket launches were the simulated use of nuclear weapons to "hit and wipe out" potential South Korean and U.S. targets, the Associated Press reports. What's more, North Korean leader KIM JONG UN suggested that the tests won't stop coming. The statement, which coincided with the 77th birthday of its ruling Workers' Party, is widely viewed as an attempt to polish the leader's image at home as the country struggles with pandemic-related issues while Kim attempts to enlarge his arsenal for future negotiations. 'ENOUGH IS ENOUGH': Senate Foreign Relations Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) vowed to block all future weapons sales to Saudi Arabia, which slashed much-needed oil production last week, our own ANDREW DESIDERIO and CONNOR O'BRIEN report. Menendez, who has veto power over foreign arms sales, urged the Biden administration to "immediately freeze all aspects" of cooperation with the kingdom. The call to action comes after OPEC+ drastically cut its oil production in what the U.S. views as a gift to Russia, which had provided energy to the U.S. and Europe prior to its war in Ukraine. "As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, I will not green light any cooperation with Riyadh until the Kingdom reassesses its position with respect to the war in Ukraine," Menendez said in a statement first obtained by POLITICO. "Enough is enough." JOHN KIRBY, spokesperson for the National Security Council, told CNN this morning that Biden was willing to work with Congress to discuss what the U.S.-Saudi relationship " ought to look like going forward." Hours later, Sen. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) and Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) announced bicameral legislation to end all arms sales to Saudi Arabia. MARITIME FOR A DEAL: Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a U.S.-brokered deal that would designate contested gas fields to each country and end a decadeslong dispute, averting conflict between militants. The diplomatic breakthrough, pertaining to an area stretching the eastern side of the Mediterranean Sea, would pave the way for the neighboring countries — which are technically at war — to safeguard new sources of energy and income. Fears of escalation if the deal fell through led to worry of immediate conflict between Israel and Hezbollah militants, but the agreement is expected to mitigate tensions. It'll be easier for energy companies to extract gas from the land if the deal goes through. In statements Tuesday morning, Israeli leader YAIR LAPID called the news "a historic achievement" while Lebanese president MICHEL AOUN said the deal met the country's "demands and preserves its rights to its natural resources." Biden praised the deal in a statement: "The agreement announced by both governments today will provide for the development of energy fields for the benefit of both countries, setting the stage for a more stable and prosperous region, and harnessing vital new energy resources for the world." IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95, @ericgeller, @johnnysaks130 and @Lawrence_Ukenye. A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security. Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more.   Flashpoints MUSK SPOKE TO PUTIN?: ELON MUSK reportedly spoke to Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN before proposing a peace plan on Twitter, per a note the Eurasia Group's IAN BREMMER sent to subscribers. Musk told Bremmer that Putin was "prepared to negotiate," per Vice's MATTHEW CHAMPION, but Crimea had to be part of Russia, Ukraine couldn't join NATO, and Russia could keep the four Ukrainian regions Putin claimed to annex. Those were nearly the same conditions Musk put out in an Oct. 3 tweet, though he added that the sham referendums be redone under U.N. supervision. Musk denied the account in, you guessed it, a tweet: "I have spoken to Putin only once and that was about 18 months ago. The subject matter was space." The countdown to cries of "Logan Act violation!" will begin in 3…2…1… WHAT WEAPONS?: Russia's own forces believe the invasion of Ukraine wasn't the best idea — and they're running out of weapons, according to a senior British spy chief, the Financial Times' JOHN PAUL RATHBONE reports. Russians have "started to understand" that the decision to invade Ukraine was a high-stakes decision where "the costs to Russia — in people and equipment — are staggering," said Sir Jeremy Fleming, head of British intelligence and security organization GCHQ. "We know — and Russian commanders on the ground know — that their supplies and munitions are running out," Fleming said. "Russia's forces are exhausted. The use of prisoners to reinforce, and now the mobilization of tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts, speaks of a desperate situation." Keystrokes WHAT THREATS?: Ukraine's successful cyber defense since the war began is a good sign that the U.S. can handle a large and growing array of threats, National Cyber Director CHRIS INGLIS explained at the Cipher Brief's 2022 Threat Conference, via our friend JOHN SAKELLARIADIS over at Weekly Cybersecurity. The U.S. has the potential to achieve significant progress in security if it makes "serious" investments in digital resilience and does not delegate digital defense to "market forces or destiny," Inglis said at the conference. "If somebody asked me in February 2022, I would've underestimated the power of defense," said Inglis, who recalled how he once likened cybersecurity to a soccer match where the two offenses couldn't be stopped. "Ukraine showed us some investment in digital infrastructure, in roles and responsibilities and in people skills can pay huge dividends in your ability to conduct a stout defense." The Complex ARMY IN TOUGH TIMES: Ukraine. A recruiting crisis. Inflation. These are just three of the big issues impacting the Army's ability to prepare and plan for future fights, Defense News' JEN JUDSON reported. "As they work to nail down funding plans, there's no way of knowing how much longer Ukraine will need military aid, how much Congress will decide to send, and whether the supplies will come from Army stockpiles or hot off a defense contractor's production line," she wrote. "Concurrently, the Army is debating whether to restore its own stockpiles with more ammunition than it previously kept in reserve, and whether it will replace older supplies with upgraded ones." The Army has already submitted its FY24 funding proposal, following on its $178 billion FY23 proposal.   SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.     On the Hill FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– SPANBERGER ENDORSEMENTS: The National Security Leaders for America group, featuring more than 200 retired military and national security professionals, will endorse Rep. ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (D-Va.) in her close House race. "After years of service to this nation, we know moral courage when we see it. Abigail Spanberger has the moral courage necessary to take on the most pressing threats to our essential yet fragile democracy. She is a patriot who understands that America is more than Red and Blue. She understands that her job is to serve her country, not her party," The signees include former Homeland Security Secretary JANET NAPOLITANO and former Secretaries of the Navy RICHARD DANZIG and RAY MABUS. But national security hasn't played a big role in the race. The economy and abortion have been the two dominant issues to date. POLITICO currently forecasts that the midterm result in Virginia's District 7 leans Democratic, a good sign for Spanberger and not great news for her opponent, YESLI VEGA. Broadsides A NOT-SO-HAPPY UNION: A top European Union foreign policy official rebuked the organization for its overdependence on Russia, China and the U.S. on Monday, saying the E.U. has been dependent on "a world that is no longer there." In a speech at the European Union Ambassadors Annual Conference, JOSEP BORRELL FONTELLES, high representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, expressed mounting concerns about the organization's reliance on China and Russia for energy and the market, and its dependence on the U.S. for security. To be prosperous in the future, he argued, the union must "find new ways for energy inside" its boundaries and shoulder more security responsibilities itself. "This is not a moment when we are going to send flowers to all of you saying that you are beautiful, you work very well and we are very happy; we are one big family," Borrell said. "This is a moment to talk among ourselves about what we do [not do] well enough, why I am not always happy with the way my [EU] Delegations work, and to send clear messages about how I would like you to improve." Transitions — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: CHRISTINE HILT has joined the Eurasia Group as a senior analyst for global macro - geopolitics. The former presidential management fellow served last as a Serbia desk officer at the State Department. (Full disclosure: Hilt is your host's wife.) — KYLE MURPHY is now senior adviser for industry and analysis in the International Trade Administration at the Department of Commerce. He most recently was senior adviser to the CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. — ALIA AWADALLAH will serve as an adviser to the deputy under secretary of the Army. Previously, she was a presidential management fellow where she worked in the vice president's office, the Defense Department and State Department.     What to Read — SUMIT GANGULY, Foreign Policy: What Would Brinkmanship Look Like in the Indo-Pacific? — JEFFREY MANKOFF, War On The Rocks: As Russia Reels, Eurasia Roils — VIVEK RAMASWAMY and MIKE POMPEO, Wall Street Journal: China's Threat to Taiwan Semiconductors Tomorrow Today — The Atlantic Council, 8 a.m.: "Can Ukraine Survive the Winter?" — The United States Institute of Peace, 9 a.m.: "Dialogue on War Legacies and Peace in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia" — The Arab Center, 9 a.m.: "Security and Securitization in the Middle East and North Africa" — The Navy Memorial, 11 a.m.: Virtual discussion with Vice Adm. BRAD COOPER — The National Defense Industrial Association, 1 p.m.: "Enabling the Joint Warfight — Information Advantage" — The Center for a New American Security and the Georgetown University Walsh School of Foreign Service, 2 p.m.: Discussion with National Security Advisor JAKE SULLIVAN — The Council for a Livable World, 6:30 p.m.: "Countdown to 2022 Midterms Featuring Sen. ED MARKEY" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who says it's never the moment to send us flowers. And as always, we appreciate the tireless work of our producer Kierra Frazier. A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security. Lockheed Martin is helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating our digital transformation. That means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins so you can anticipate maintenance and reduce downtime. It means deep knowledge of your missions. It means industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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