| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
Col. Scott Raleigh, left, speaks with Slovakian Ambassador to the United States, Radovan Javorčík, middle, and Romanian Ambassador to the U.S., Andrei Muraru, on Dover Air Force Base, Delaware, Oct. 18, 2021. | Tech. Sgt. Nicole Leidholm/U.S. Air Force | With help from Lara Seligman Subscribe here | Email Alex Slovakia's ambassador to the United States believes the West will respond forcefully to Russia if it uses nuclear weapons. But it won't involve deploying nukes of its own. "We need to show to the Russians and to the world that we will retaliate, but not through nuclear escalation," RADOVAN JAVORČÍK told NatSec Daily in his embassy office Wednesday during a wide-ranging interview. "I don't see any mental and technical adjustments in our governance, in our way of life — the Western way of life — that we would do that." He did, however, point to U.S. national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN's recent comments that America and its allies would respond "decisively" to Russia's use of a tactical nuclear weapon. Javorčík, a former ambassador to NATO, wouldn't speculate on the chances of Russia dropping the bomb, which VLADIMIR PUTIN has repeatedly alluded to doing. But he pointed to Russia's military doctrine, which accounts for the use of a tactical nuke in operations. "The only thing which is missing is a political decision. And we hope that any leader in Moscow is wise enough not to make this, I would say, an explicitly crazy political decision," he told NatSec Daily. Slovakia, which shares a border with Ukraine, is in a fragile state. Its government could collapse at any second and, depending on who you ask, polling suggests more public support for Moscow in the war than for Kyiv. There are also protests over high energy prices as Russian turns off the oil and gas taps and the weather turns cold. Javorčík noted that such turmoil, seen throughout much of Europe, could lead to the "potential for cracks" in Western unity on Ukraine. But he doesn't expect a major downturn in support for Kyiv in the immediate future. Ukraine isn't fighting only for itself, but for "the whole of Europe" and "world order." Because of that, "this unity will hold" — at least for the time being. Slovakia for now is helping Ukraine arm itself, most recently offering the country Zuzana-2 howitzers and for months serving as a transit point for Western-delivered weapons. The Slovak Air Force recently retired the Soviet-era MiG-29 Fulcrum . Javorčík said Bratislava was "open" to giving them to Kyiv, now that the aircraft have been stripped of sensitive equipment. The ambassador had no doubts about the Ukrainians' ability to fly the warplanes, but he said country's should be more focused on providing Kyiv what it needs today — more artillery and missiles. The howitzers should certainly suffice for the time being: "They're real beasts on the battlefield," he said.
| | | | JOIN NEXT WEDNESDAY FOR A TALK ON U.S.-CHINA AND XI JINPING'S NEW ERA: President Xi Jinping will consolidate control of the ruling Chinese Communist Party later this month by engineering a third term as China's paramount leader, solidifying his rule until at least 2027. Join POLITICO Live for a virtual conversation hosted by Phelim Kine, author of POLITICO's China Watcher newsletter, to unpack what it means for U.S.-China relations. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | BIG GAINS: Ukraine's recent gains in the east and south are a pretty big deal, a top Pentagon official told LARA SELIGMAN Tuesday. The "significant operational accomplishment," as this official put it, complemented the Biden administration's transfer of another $625 million in weapons to Kyiv on the same day. The hefty weapons package — the first of the new fiscal year — will come in handy as Kyiv moves to regain territory on two fronts. This time, it includes four High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and 200 MaxxPro Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles, all of which will provide "additional capability and munitions that it needs to maintain momentum in the east and the south, including additional artillery and precision fires," according to LAURA COOPER, the Pentagon's deputy assistant secretary for Russian, Ukrainian and Eurasian affairs. This week appears to be shaping up nicely for Ukraine's forces. YEMEN CEASE-FIRE: Three days after Yemen's warring sides failed to extend a nationwide cease-fire, key elements of the peace agreement "continue to hold," including "relatively low levels of violence," U.S. Special Envoy TIM LENDERKING said in a phone conference with journalists Wednesday morning. During the call, Lenderking referenced "impossible demands that could not be met" and "last minute" requests, leveling most of the blame at the Iranian-backed Houthis for the truce's failure. The remarks contrast with U.N. Special Envoy for Yemen HANS GRUNDBERG's statement following the negotiations, in which he did not call out the Houthis, but thanked the government for "engaging positively" in the peace talks. "There's a stark choice that lies ahead. On the one hand, there's a return to war, which would bring nothing but casualties and destruction on Yemen. It would create even further confusion on where this conflict is headed," Lenderking said. "On the other side, there's the opportunity to not only extend but expand the truce." Lenderking said he plans to visit the region "in the very near future" and emphasized that "it's very important for the Houthis to come back to the table." MISSILE MISCHIEF: The back-and-forth following North Korea's missile test over Japan Tuesday continues as the U.S. sends a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier near the Korean Peninsula, two Defense Department officials told Lara. On Wednesday, the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan was in the Sea of Japan following an exercise with the South Korean and Japanese navies last week. It's a signal of defiance to North Korea and adds to a string of actions Tuesday in which the U.S. and South Korea dropped bombs on an uninhabited island in the Yellow Sea and the U.S. and Japan flew together over the Sea of Japan. "The re-dispatch of the carrier strike group to the Korean Peninsula is highly unusual and shows the resolute will of the South Korea-US alliance to strengthen the alliance's readiness posture against North Korea's consecutive provocations and to respond decisively to any kind of provocation and threat from North Korea," South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement. But retaliation hasn't been without its drawbacks. A ballistic missile launched by South Korea intended as another show of force blew up after striking the ground during a live-fire drill with the U.S. Tuesday morning, the Associated Press reported. Cue the sad trombone noise. TAIWAN, BUT MAKE IT STORAGE: The U.S. wants to pack Taiwan full of weapons so it can defend itself if China tries to cut off access to the democratic island, the New York Times' EDWARD WONG and JOHN ISMAY reported. The problem with that is twofold: Many weapons are headed to Ukraine, and China may not take kindly to a weapons buildup right on its border. Still, the lack of ground routes increases the need for the prepositioning of weapons. "U.S. officials increasingly emphasize Taiwan's need for smaller, mobile weapons that can be lethal against Chinese warships and jets while being able to evade attacks, which is central to so-called asymmetric warfare," they wrote. IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95, @ericgeller, @johnnysaks130 and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
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The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century warfare network-centric architecture. Learn more. | | | | | | UKRAINE BEHIND RUSSIAN ASSASSINATION: The U.S. believes that the Ukrainian government was involved in the assassination of a prominent Russian nationalist's daughter, the New York Times reported. The August killing of DARIA DUGINA led many in Washington to tell NatSec Daily they suspected Ukraine was behind it. Now the Times reports that U.S. officials say some of their Ukrainian counterparts were responsible, though they were actually targeting Dugina's father, ALEKSANDR DUGIN. Per the Times, "The United States took no part in the attack, either by providing intelligence or other assistance, officials said. American officials also said they were not aware of the operation ahead of time and would have opposed the killing had they been consulted. Afterward, American officials admonished Ukrainian officials over the assassination, they said." Ukrainian officials, in public, still deny any responsibility for Dugina's death.
| | | HACKERS HELPING IRAN PROTESTERS: Global hacker groups are launching cyber attacks against Iran to help those protesting against Tehran following the death of MAHSA AMINI , a woman who died in the custody of the country's morality police, CNBC's RYAN BROWNE and NATASHA TURAK reported. Anonymous, an international hacktivist group, claims it accessed the personal information of Iranian Parliament members, while other groups have also leaked the phone numbers and email addresses of Iranian officials. Groups have also encouraged protesters to bypass the country's internet restrictions to spread information about the protests. The efforts from groups come amid Tehran's intensified protest crackdowns. Leader ALI KHAMENEI accused the U.S. and Israel of supporting the protests to undermine the regime. ALBANIA CYBER ATTACK: This summer, Albania considered invoking NATO's Article Five after it suffered debilitating cyberattacks, which would have united all members against Iran, MAGGIE MILLER reports. The last time Article Five — which classifies an attack against a member as an "attack against them all" — was invoked following the Sept. 11 attacks. When used, the article requires members to provide collective defense of the attacked member. "I have too much respect for our friends and our allies to tell them what they should do," Prime Minister EDI RAMA said in a video interview from his office in the Albanian capital. "We are always very careful to be very humble in our assessments." The July cyber attack caused Albania to shut down government websites used and obtain driver's licenses. In the interview, Rama characterized such attacks as "like bombing a country."
| | | 'BATTLE LAB' AT CENTCOM: U.S. Central Command has hired its very first chief technology officer to lead the organization's innovation efforts. Lara caught up with the new CTO, SCHUYLER MOORE , whose resume includes stints on Capitol Hill, at the Pentagon, and most recently as chief strategy officer for the Navy's secretive Task Force 59. CENTCOM chief Gen. ERIK KURILLA's vision is to turn the combatant command into "a battle lab, of sorts," Moore told Lara. In her new role, she will serve as a "translator" between the technical community, the policy community and the congressional committees, she said. One of Moore's top goals for the new job is to better apply commercial solutions to military questions — much like Task Force 59, which has been quietly experimenting with using drone ships to secure the waters around the Arabian Peninsula. Task Force 59 made headlines last month when Iran attempted to steal three Saildrone unmanned surface vessels operated by the group in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. At one point, Task Force 59 was able to deploy a drone out on the water for more than 200 days, Moore noted. "The broader problem is that there is a huge amount of traffic and a huge amount of water to cover, and it's very hard to see everything," Moore said. "What commercial technology allows us to do in many cases, is put more 'guys' out on the water by having these unmanned sensors. So you don't have to have a ton of manned assets, you don't have to have a lot of personnel that is out at risk."
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | | MORE PENTAGON CONTROL OVER INFLATION: The Aerospace Industries Association wants the Pentagon to have more control over its ability to renegotiate contracts to account for rising inflation, our friends in Morning Defense (for Pros!) reported. "With limited tools at their disposal to manage increasing costs and maintain their workforce, many companies, especially small businesses, may choose to leave the defense industrial base entirely," AIA President and CEO ERIC FANNING wrote in a statement. Republicans sought to supersize the White House's defense request during summer NDAA markups to account for soaring costs, but the new request from AIA, which includes members such as Raytheon Technologies and Northrop Grumman, could play a role in Senate negotiations. The Senate's version of the annual defense policy bill, released in July, included more than $13 billion to counter inflation.
| | | OPEC SLASHES OIL PRODUCTION: OPEC+ plans to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day beginning in November, despite pressure from the U.S., CNBC's SAM MEREDITH reported. "At a time when maintaining a global supply of energy is of paramount importance, this decision will have the most negative impact on lower- and middle-income countries that are already reeling from elevated energy prices," Sullivan and National Economic Council Director BRIAN DEESE said in a statement. The cuts were made in response to uncertainty in the global economy and would be equivalent to roughly 2 percent of global demand. The move is the largest cut from OPEC since the Covid-19 pandemic and could lead to a spike in U.S. gasoline prices amid an already politically-fraught environment for Democrats ahead of the midterm elections. The average national gas price is $3.81, according to AAA . The figure marks a slow price climb in recent weeks after the Biden administration took a late-summer victory lap to boast about decreases in prices. Biden has directed the Department of Energy to release 10 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve next month. But this is an embarrassing moment for him after he traveled to Saudi Arabia to beg the kingdom for more oil, first bumping Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN, a move that helped end his global pariah status. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– SEMICONDUCTOR INSTRUCTOR: Fears that China could disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain and overcome the U.S. technologically by seizing Taiwan's chip-manufacturing are overblown, Defense Priorities' fellow CHRISTOPHER McCALLION writes in a newly published article. If China did invade Taiwan, he argues, there would be grave consequences, including being cut off from vital supply-chain inputs from the U.S. Rather than focus on defending the island nation, the U.S. should prioritize its own needs. "The U.S. should seek to dial down the temperature with Beijing in order to maintain the political and territorial status quo and buy the time needed to diversify its own semiconductor supplies by onshoring or 'allyshoring' chip manufacturing," McCallion writes. It would be in the U.S.'s best interests to avoid unnecessarily provoking Beijing, he argues. Instead, officials should seek to reaffirm the One China Policy and work to create a "longer-term settlement" with China regarding the region's future.
| | | |   | | | | | | — NICHOLAS RASMUSSEN is joining the Department of Homeland Security as counterterrorism coordinator. He was the executive director of the Global Internet Forum to Counter Terrorism and the National Counterterrorism Center director. — Rep. JASON CROW (D-Colo.) was appointed to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly by Speaker NANCY PELOSI. Crow, a former Army Ranger, is a member of the House Armed Services and Intelligence committees.
| | | — ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, CNN: Opinion: The security risk Congress needs to take seriously — CHRISTIAN SHEPHERD and EVA DOU, The Washington Post: XI JINPING's quest for total control of China is just getting started — ELIOT COHEN, The Atlantic: Russia's Nuclear Bluster Is a Sign of Panic
| | | — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: "Launch: Army Climate Implementation Plan" — The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 11 a.m.: "Ukraine: Back to the Future (of Warfare)?" — The Government Executive Media Group, 12 p.m.: "Genius Machines: Artificial Intelligence, Part II." — The Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.: "How can we deter China in the 2020s? A conversation with MICHÈLE FLOURNOY" — The Middle East Institute, 2:30 p.m.: "Heading for a Revolution in Iran? A Conversation with MASIH ALINEJAD, Iranian activist and journalist" — The George Washington University Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, 4 p.m.: "Is the War on Message? Political Communication in Russia Before and After February." Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Dave Brown, who considers getting this newsletter out a "significant operational accomplishment."
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