ABOUT THOSE RAILROADS: Earlier this week, the third-largest freight rail union said that its members had voted against ratifying a tentative agreement struck last month — sparking a wave of media coverage Tuesday and today about what that could mean for a potential strike that would devastate the already-delicate economy. Long story short: It's not great. Just one of the dozen unions covered by the proposed contract can trigger a strike, because none of the others would cross a picket line, your host and Tanya Snyder explained Tuesday. For consumers, the result would be empty shelves and delayed shipments during the time of year they rely on them most" — the holidays. "It is a trade union principle that if a railroad union goes on strike, other railroad unions honor that strike," said Peter Kennedy, who directs strategic coordination and research at the union, Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes (yes, they really spell it that way). And at this point, reaching a new tentative agreement seems "dubious at best." But it's not the end of the road, either. There are still several weeks left in a cooling-off period that takes strikes off the table so negotiators can reach a compromise. And AFL-CIO Transportation Trades Department President Greg Regan points out that more unions have voted for ratification than against it — four so far (though not two of the last-minute holdouts that kept negotiators at the Labor Department overnight last month). That could bode well for union and railroad presidents being able to reach a new compromise if, and in BMWE's case when, they return to the table. Leaders are "working on answering questions from membership and educating their members on what is and what is not in these agreements," Regan told Weekly Shift. "No one wants to sign a TA that they didn't think could pass. So people are hopeful they can try to find a pathway forward." Your dose(s) of realism: Any new tentative agreement is very unlikely to contain the additional days off that many members have hung their hats on. Last month's contract contained just one, versus the five unions initially pushed for — and employers will be wary to cede more given that Biden's Presidential Emergency Board did not recommend any when it weighed in earlier this year. "Money was not the primary or secondary driver — it's all about the attendance policies," Arthur Wheaton, a Cornell University professor and former AFSCME employee, told Weekly Shift. "It's difficult to have that kind of leverage to try to change that." And while Congress has for now opted against intervening legislatively, which they have the ability to do, that's not to say they wouldn't if a strike actually took place, particularly with the busy holiday season approaching. "The best solutions are always at the bargaining table," Wheaton said. "But that doesn't mean that the Biden administration is going to allow a large strike to cripple our already horrible supply chain in the US. They're not going to let it stand as a strike that blows up Christmas." Mark your calendars: BMWE has extended its cooling off period until Nov. 18. IAM's ends Dec. 19. We'll know the results of two outstanding ratification votes this Thursday and Friday, and the other four between then and Nov. 17.
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