What North Korea’s Kim might be up to

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.

Oct 06, 2022 View in browser   By Alexander Ward, Lara Seligman and Matt Berg People watch a television broadcast reporting on North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the Seoul Railway Station. | Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images With help from Lee Hudson and Maggie Miller Subscribe here | Email Alex| Email Matt When North Korea tests a missile, the world's collective response tends to be a shrug. Now, after six rounds of missile tests in two weeks — and 12 warplanes streaking toward South Korea's border — the U.S. and its allies are acting with a little more urgency. South Korea deployed 30 warplanes on Thursday after eight North Korean fighter jets and four bombers were believed to have conducted air-to-surface firing drills, South Korean military officials said. Meanwhile, two warships in the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier's strike group — the guided-missile cruiser USS Chancellorsville and the guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold — conducted a ballistic missile defense exercise alongside three ships from the Japanese and ROK navies on Thursday in the waters between Korea and Japan, according to the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. Clearly, this isn't the usual North Korean aggression followed by Western finger-wagging. This is wholly different, so it's worth a very quick recap of how we got here. Former President DONALD TRUMP, North Korean leader KIM JONG UN and former South Korean President MOON JAE IN engaged in an ill-fated diplomatic effort to solve the decadeslong crisis on the peninsula starting in 2018. To lower tensions, the U.S. and South Korea ended large-scale military exercises to the chagrin of many in the Pentagon. Fast forward to now: There are new presidents in the United States and South Korea, each with a different approach to Kim's fiefdom. While Biden is open to working-level talks without preconditions, he's also open to strengthening the relationship with Seoul. South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL, meanwhile, has spoken openly about decapitating the leadership of his northern neighbor. So when the U.S. and South Korea recently held their largest military exercises in five years, and Washington, Seoul and Tokyo participated in an anti-submarine drill , North Korea freaked out. It increased the frequency and provocative nature of its missile tests, namely flying a missile over Japan for the first time since 2017. ANKIT PANDA of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace suspects Pyongyang is trying to kill two birds with one stone. "They also need to carry out their own operational exercises and drills occasionally, so there are more mundane explanations out there," he told NatSec Daily. Analysts have pointed to the current moment's parallels to the flare-up of 2012 and 2013 when North Korea tested a satellite before preparing for a third nuclear test. Pyongyang then released a map showing a U.S. mainland strike plan and conducted live drills on the inter-Korean border — all while massive cyberattacks hit South Korea. The U.S. and South Korea responded kind of like they're doing now: sending warplanes and warships to the peninsula to show North Korea that the West wasn't playing around. The tensions eventually calmed down, meaning it's possible they could again drop after this spike. But what's different this time is that North Korea has a five-year military plan to develop "defense science and weapons systems ." The more force the U.S. and its allies show, the higher the possibility Kim does something to keep the situation hot. A month after Pyongyang launched the missile over Japan in 2017, for example, it conducted a nuclear test. Some U.S. officials fear that may be what Kim is gearing up for again. The Biden administration and its friends in South Korea and Japan don't have many good options here. Still, chances are that the situation will stay heated a while longer and eventually calm down — at least that's the hope.   JOIN NEXT WEDNESDAY FOR A TALK ON U.S.-CHINA AND XI JINPING'S NEW ERA:  President Xi Jinping will consolidate control of the ruling Chinese Communist Party later this month by engineering a third term as China's paramount leader, solidifying his rule until at least 2027. Join POLITICO Live for a virtual conversation hosted by Phelim Kine, author of POLITICO's China Watcher newsletter, to unpack what it means for U.S.-China relations. REGISTER HERE.     The Inbox SO LONG, SANCTIONS: The Biden administration is gearing up to loosen sanctions on Venezuela to allow oil giant Chevron to pump in the authoritarian regime's region once again, per the Wall Street Journal's PATRICIA GARIP, VIVIAN SALAMA and KEJAL VYAS. The move has the potential to reopen U.S. and European markets to oil exports from Venezuela, the Journal reported, citing people familiar with the proposal. Unsurprisingly, the idea of easing sanctions on President NICOLÁS MADURO's country has drawn mixed reactions from both sides of the aisle. "Just in case you haven't noticed, our policy of sanctioning and isolating Maduro hasn't worked. At some point when your policy isn't getting results, it's malpractice to not try something else," Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) tweeted. In a different camp, former Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO called the move "unconscionably dangerous," and Rep. ANDY BIGGS (R-Ariz.) bashed Biden for continuing "to place America last and embolden our adversaries." 'THOUGHT HE WAS A SHEPHERD': An Islamic State official hiding in a Syrian village was killed by U.S. forces in a rare helicopter raid Thursday, Reuters' ORHAN QEREMAN and SULEIMAN AL-KHALIDI reported, citing two security sources. The attack, which took place in a Syrian-held village, would be the first known raid that the U.S. conducted in an area loyal to President BASHAR AL-ASSAD. "The airborne operation targeted a key IS leader present in the areas controlled by the Syrian government. It was successful," one of the people told Reuters. In a statement, CENTCOM said that the helicopter raid targeted Rakkan Wahid al-Shammri, "an ISIS official known to facilitate the smuggling of weapons and fighters to support ISIS operations." The statement said he was killed and one of his associates was wounded. Two additional associates were detained by U.S. forces. CENTCOM added that no US forces or civilians were killed or injured in the operation. One of the people Reuters talked to said locals "thought he was a shepherd." DIPLOMAT DISCRIMINATION: An internal survey found that almost half of all State Department employees have reported experiencing discrimination, bullying and harassment in the workplace, the Wall Street Journal's JESSICA DONATI reported. Of more than 8,600 foreign service officers and civil servants surveyed, 44 percent reported experiencing discrimination, while 27 percent reported experiencing harassment. The survey has not yet been made public. As the State Department wrestles with fostering a more inclusive and equitable workplace — last month officials said the department had completed a five-year diversity and inclusion plan — the results of the survey suggest that, well, there might be more work to do. IT'S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95, @ericgeller, @johnnysaks130 and @Lawrence_Ukenye. A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security. Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more.   Flashpoints HAVA-NAH SYNDROME: A CIA task force formed to investigate Havana Syndrome, a mysterious illness suffered by agency officers and diplomats in recent years, is being accused of soft-pedaling its research into the matter, CNN's KATIE BO LILLIS, JEREMY HERB and KYLIE ATWOOD reported. In the past year alone, up to three dozen current and former CIA officers have voiced concerns to the House and Senate Intelligence Committees. With no breakthroughs about the cause or cure of the illness, their frustrations have festered as victims suffer from dizziness, extreme headaches and other head trauma. "There's just no answer," a House Intelligence Committee member briefed on the CIA task force's work told CNN. "They've done an immense amount of work, literally spreadsheeting every catastrophic set of symptoms down to the headache and there's just nothing. None." Keystrokes CHINA ON THE HUNT: Chinese state-backed hackers are using a sweeping list of commonly exploited cyber vulnerabilities to target U.S. critical infrastructure groups, the defense industrial base and technology companies, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. The NSA, the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency put out a joint advisory Thursday laying out these vulnerabilities, and warning that Chinese hackers are seeking to steal intellectual property and gain access to key networks in the U.S. and in allied nations. The agencies urged organizations to check their systems for these vulnerabilities and patch them immediately. ROB JOYCE, director of cybersecurity at NSA, told reporters Thursday that the Chinese government had become increasingly "brazen" in its hacking activities, and that hackers are already exploiting almost 20 known vulnerabilities. "We see exploitation, and they are being exploited by actors of concern with sufficient capabilities to compromise beyond the initial networks," Joyce said. China has long been viewed as one of the most dangerous countries in terms of its cyber capabilities, and Chinese hackers have stolen an estimated billions of dollars in U.S. intellectual property. FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY said in 2020 that in the past decade, cases of economic espionage linked to China had risen 1,300 percent, and that the FBI was opening a new China-related counterintelligence investigation every 10 hours. The Complex X FACTOR: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) reported that the Special Competitive Studies Project spearheaded by former Google CEO ERIC SCHMIDT is out with the first in a series of reports outlining 10 recommendations for the military to maintain technological superiority. Elements of the Offset-X strategy range from fully embracing networked operations and machine learning to devising new ways to undermine adversaries' censorship, improving war planning and enhancing public-private partnerships. The Ukrainians, the report asserts, "effectively leveraged their informational upper-hand" and relied on networked operations to outmaneuver Russian forces with anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, drones and loitering munitions. On the Hill OPEC MINUS TROOPS: A bill to remove troops from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in response to the drastic cut in oil production by OPEC+ was introduced Wednesday. Spearheaded by Reps. TOM MALINOWSKI (D-N.J.), SEAN CASTEN (D-Ill.) and SUSAN WILD (D-Pa.), the bill would mandate the removal of soldiers and missile defense systems from the Middle Eastern countries, requiring the forces to be relocated to defend U.S. troops elsewhere in the region. The cut in oil production, the largest since the pandemic began, is antithetical to U.S. needs as Russian exports are blocked by sanctions due to the war in Ukraine, the lawmakers argue. OPEC+ cutting oil production "is a hostile act against the United States and a clear signal that they have chosen to side with Russia in its war against Ukraine," the lawmakers wrote. "We see no reason why American troops and contractors should continue to provide this service to countries that are actively working against us."   SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.     Broadsides 'SHOOT HIMSELF': The anger is coming from inside the Russian government now, with an occupation leader openly criticizing Russian Defense Minister SERGEI SHOIGU, per the New York Times' ANTON TROIANOVSKI. "Many people are saying that as an officer, the defense minister could simply shoot himself for being the one who let things get to this state," KIRILL STREMOUSOV, the Russian-imposed deputy governor of the Kherson region, said in a video posted to his account on Telegram. "But, you know, the word 'officer' is not understood by many." That wasn't all: "They need to stop lying," ANDREI KARTAPOLOV, the defense committee chief in Russia's lower house of Parliament, said Wednesday in a broadside (tee hee) against the Defense Ministry. European officials that NatSec Daily spoke to think there's a different Kremlin scapegoat every day as Putin tries to deflect blame for his many errors. Now it seems Shoigu has the honor. Transitions — ROBIN SHEPHERD is the new executive director for North America at GLOBSEC. He previously served as the vice president of the Halifax Security Forum. — Beacon Global Strategies, a global public policy, government procurement and geopolitical risk analysis firm, promoted people: ANDREW HIRE, JOSH KIRSHNER and ERIC SAYERS to managing director, and MERRITT SIMON to associate vice president.     What to Read — LIZ TRUSS, UK.Gov: Time to find common cause with our European friends — TATIANA STANOVAYA, Foreign Affairs: Putin's Apocalyptic End Game in Ukraine — GUS WEST, Newsweek: Latin America Needs Its Own EU Tomorrow Today — The James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 11 a.m.: "Mexico 2025 and Beyond: A Conversation with LEO ZUCKERMANN" — The Wilson Center, 9 a.m.: "The Geopolitical Importance of Southeast Asia and the Pacific" — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Book Event: Spies and Lies: How China's Greatest Covert Operations Fooled the World — The Peterson Institute for International Economics, 12:15 p.m.: Book discussion on "The Cashless Revolution: China's Reinvention of Money and the End of America's Domination of Finance and Technology" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who says it's "unconscionably dangerous" that we're still in charge of this newsletter. A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security. Lockheed Martin is helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating our digital transformation. That means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins so you can anticipate maintenance and reduce downtime. It means deep knowledge of your missions. It means industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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