| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward , Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
An Iranian-made drone exported to Russia hovers over Kyiv on Oct. 17, 2022. | Efrem Lukatsky/AP | With help from Paul McLeary Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt In honor of TAYLOR SWIFT's "Midnights" release, your friendly neighborhood NatSec Daily team wanted to tackle a question that keeps us up at night: What's in it for Iran to help Russia in Ukraine? National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY offered the administration's view. "It's another sign of how isolated both Russia and Iran are and they have to rely on each other. They continue to lie to the world but the facts are clear," he told NatSec Daily. "The Supreme Leader should answer why he has Iran directly engaged on the ground and through the provision of weapons that enable Russia to kill civilians and damage civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. It's just another example of Iran's desire to export violence, and both Iran and Russia need to be held accountable for it." Experts we spoke to offered some straightforward answers. Russia, which is adept at sanctions evasion, could pass along its knowhow to Iran. Iran might be rewarding Russia for keeping Syrian President BASHAR ASSAD in power. And then there's Occam's Razor: Iran gets money for its sputtering economy in exchange for drones, missiles and training. The Nuclear Threat Initiative's ERIC BREWER wrote a smart Twitter thread Friday on the not-so-obvious reasons. One is that Iran might want to say it helped defeat a U.S. and NATO-backed Ukrainian military, dealing a blow to the West's prestige. That would mean Tehran calculated it was worth aiding Moscow for the long term, not just while Russia's military is straining against Ukraine's counteroffensive and staunch resistance. Another is to send a deterrent message to Washington and Jerusalem. If the United States doesn't reenter the 2015 nuclear deal it abandoned and/or Iran doesn't come back into compliance with the terms of the agreement, then expect talk of war to grow. In such a scenario, Iran would want to have demonstrated that a fight wouldn't be easy for the U.S. or Israel to win. Other experts agreed with this view. "Demonstrating the lethal capabilities of its drones and missiles could be a key driver in Iran's current calculations, as a way to bolster deterrence and prepare for military escalation," said DALIA DASSA KAYE of the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations. "Iran no doubt wants to show it's ready for that fight despite its weakening legitimacy at home." The third out-of-the-box reason is that the effectiveness of Iranian drones in a major war is the best advertisement possible for those weapons. Turkey's Bayraktar TB2 drone proved decisive in Azerbaijan's war with Armenia two years ago, and it's now all the rage for militaries seeking an edge. Ukraine is now using the Turkish-made drone against Russian forces — and even singing about it . All this to say: if Iran's drones tilt the balance from Ukraine to Russia in the war, expect more countries to line up for Shahed-136s . Whatever the exact rationale(s), the Center for a New American Security's JONATHAN LORD had this big takeaway: "Iran has essentially co-opted Russia into being another of its proxies," he told NatSec Daily. Iran, of course, denies it's assisting Russia. "Tehran's policy regarding the Ukraine war is to respect the country's territorial integrity," Iranian Foreign Minister HOSSEIN AMIRABDOLLAHIAN told JOSEP BORRELL , the European Union's top diplomat. Kirby, the NSC spokesperson, told reporters Thursday that Iranians are in Crimea to help Russia and that Tehran has given Moscow "dozens" of drones to date. Russia "will likely continue to receive additional shipments in the future," he said.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | IRAN AND CHINA DOCS AT TRUMP'S CLUB: Classified intelligence documents on Iran and China were among the papers former President DONALD TRUMP had at Mar-a-Lago, the Washington Post's DEVLIN BARRETT reports. "If shared with others," Barrett wrote, "such information could expose intelligence-gathering methods that the United States wants to keep hidden from the world." At least one of the papers focused on Iran's missile program, while others centered on "highly sensitive intelligence work aimed at China." Trump continues to insist he did nothing wrong by holding on to the intelligence, with defenders claiming the president had broad powers to declassify whatever he wants. AIR DEFENSES NOW: Ukraine's defense minister described to our own PAUL MCLEARY how his country has managed to patch together an air defense system from donations from multiple countries — and why it's knocking down Russian cruise missiles and Iranian drones. While the mishmash of weapons are effective, OLEKSII REZNIKOV said air defense will continue to be "priority number one" in the coming months as Russia ramps up its brutal air campaign against civilian infrastructure. "We need to divide the targets in the air — for example, to strike cruise or ballistic missiles our defense systems will use expensive rockets like IRIS-T from Germany and [soon] there will also be NASAMS, or our Soviet systems like Buk. Against the Iranian drones we can use cheaper equipment like Gepard from Germany or Stingers and Starstreak, or other equipment from our partners," he told Paul. Beefing up that protective blanket over Kyiv and other cities remains front of mind in Kyiv, as the missiles and drones keep coming, day after day with no end in sight. "That's why we ask our partners to find the solutions with different systems not only for the middle-range or long-range, we need short-range systems [from] different countries that have those systems like Sweden, Germany, and the United States," Reznikov said.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today . | | | | |
STRENGTHENING TIES: Japanese Prime Minister KISHIDA FUMIO and his Australian counterpart ANTHONY ALBANESE will meet in Perth this weekend to strengthen military intelligence ties between the two countries amid rising threats from China in the region, Financial Times' KANA INAGAKI and NIC FILDES report.
The two leaders are expected to upgrade a 15-year-old declaration on security cooperation and discuss Japan's desire to secure natural gas and other energy from Australia, according to people with knowledge of the discussions. If Kushida and Albanese reach an agreement, Tokyo would further its efforts to increase cooperation with the Five Eyes countries — Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the U.K. and U.S. — and fortify its standing with Australia as a close security ally. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington's national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we're featuring MATT BERG, aka your co-host who joined the NatSec Daily team a couple weeks ago. That's right, I'm taking the mic, Alex. I'm based in Western Massachusetts for the time being, where I'm a regular at The Lady Killigrew Cafe in Montague. You can find me most days (and evenings) hunched over the bar, putting together this very newsletter, and unwinding afterward with a local draft beer, preferably Half-Light Sunbeam from Brick & Feather. If I'm not there, try Ye Ol' Watering Hole in Northampton, where I'll be spilling a whiskey sour over the pool table, or The Os in Sunderland, where you can find me singing karaoke with a PBR. Actually, don't check there. If you're in Massachusetts, let me know — Cheers!
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IT'S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 .
While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 and @Lawrence_Ukenye .
| | | DAM IN DANGER: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY warned that Russia is planning to blow up parts of a power plant and dam in the Kherson area, equating the potential attack to using weapons of mass destruction, CNN's TIM LISTER, JULIA KESAIEVA and KATERINA KREBS report . "We have information that Russian terrorists have mined the dam and units of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant," Zelenskyy told the Council of Europe during a video address on Thursday. If the dam breaks, "hundreds of thousands" of people could be killed and a large part of the country's water supply would be diminished.
| | | STARLINK INSIDE IRAN?: The Biden administration is in talks with SpaceX's ELON MUSK to place the Starlink satellite communications system inside Iran in a likely effort to support the country's anti-government protesters. "We have our foot on the gas to do everything we possibly can to support the aspirations of the Iranian people," a senior administration official told CNN's NATASHA BERTRAND and ALEX MARQUARDT . "That is our policy, period. At the same time, it is truly an Iranian movement led by young girls and spreading to other aspects of society. And we do not want to in any way eclipse their movement." If executed, the system would give demonstrators the ability to circumvent the Islamist regime's block on communications. Meanwhile, Ukraine's DefMin Reznikov also told Paul that Musk remains in touch with Kyiv over keping Starlink active. "I know that we will not have a problem" Reznikov said, citing the "personal communication" between Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation MYKHAILO FEDOROV and Musk. The two have personal communication, and their last talk was "really positive," he said. ANATOLIY FEDORUK, mayor of the Ukrainian city of Bucha, told our own MOHAR CHATTERJEE said he is buying power generators specifically to help keep internet service up, even with all the other demands for power. "The fact that people were able to record the atrocities happening in our city" by posting documentation online makes those connections essential, Fedoruk said. "This is an online war," he said. "Connection should be there always."
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY . | | | | | | | | AUSTIN-SHOIGU CALL: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN and Russian Defense Minister SERGEI SHOIGU spoke on the phone Friday for the first time since May, our own LARA SELIGMAN reports. The phone call marks the second time the defense leaders have spoken since Russia invaded Ukraine, with the first conversation taking place on May 13. The two leaders did speak previously on Feb. 18, six days before the war started. Austin "emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication amid the ongoing war against Ukraine," Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. PAT RYDER said. COUNTERDRONE SYSTEM MONTHS AWAY: The Defense Department has yet to award a contract for a long-promised counterdrone system that Ukraine wants. Russia is using Iranian-provided drones with devastating effect, targeting civilian infrastructure and terrorizing communities throughout Ukraine. And yet, there's still no deal for the Vampire system even after the Pentagon in August announced it in a $3 billion security assistance package, the Wall Street Journal's BRETT FORREST reports. The Pentagon didn't provide Forrest a concrete timeline for when the counterdrone system would make its way to Ukraine.
| | | LAWMAKERS MEET ZELENSKYY: Three members of the House Intelligence Committee met with Zelenskyy in Kyiv on Friday. Rep. MICHAEL TURNER (R-Ohio), the panel's top Republican, joined Reps. JIM HINES (D-Conn.) and ERIC SWALWELL (D-Calif.) for a discussion with the Ukrainian leader about Ukraine's preparations for war in winter, the situation on the front line and the need to rebuild energy infrastructure after Russia destroyed some of it. The visit continues the trend of American lawmakers and top administration officials making the trek to meet in person with the wartime leader. President JOE BIDEN's absence in Kyiv is still felt by Ukrainian officials who believe he should make the trip like other world leaders have. A Republican congressional aide said, "This trip was essential in understanding what is going on in Ukraine, the needs of their military and intelligence agencies and the resources needed to defeat Russia." KEEP THE AID COMING: Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL distanced himself from House Minority Leader KEVIN McCARTHY's suggestion that Republicans would slow aid to Ukraine should they control Congress, touting aid already approved "on an overwhelming bipartisan basis" in a statement on Friday. "A Republican majority in the Senate will focus its oversight on ensuring timely delivery of needed weapons and greater allied assistance to Ukraine," McConnell said as part of a statement urging BIDEN and U.S. allies to expedite aid to Ukraine. Since McCarthy's comments that Republicans would be hesitant to continue to send "blank check" to the war-torn country, Biden aides have privately speculated that prominent GOP lawmakers including McConnell and Pennsylvania Rep. BRIAN FITZPATRICK (R-Pa.) wouldn't be so fond of halting aid. Now, both lawmakers have publicly disagreed with McCarthy.
| | | LAWMAKERS REACT TO PENTAGON ABORTION MOVE: Rep. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) called out the Defense Department for the decision to pay for service members's travel to have an abortion. "I am deeply disappointed that the Department of Defense has allowed President Biden to blatantly misuse the United States military for political purposes," Rogers wrote. "Yesterday's memo from DoD, released nearly two weeks before the election, is a desperate campaign tactic that undermines the core mission of our military. Rogers claimed the Pentagon's move was purely political and funds should instead be used for deterring China and other adversaries. Senate Armed Services Committee Chair JACK REED (D-R.I.) voiced his support for the decision in a statement after hearing about women who've struggled to access reproductive health care since Roe v. Wade was overturned in June. "Service members and their families should have the right to make their own choices about their lives, health, and future," Reed wrote. "Female service members and prospective recruits should feel that military service remains a viable career option, regardless of where they may be assigned."
| | | — JON HUNTSMAN has joined the Center for a New American Security's board of directors. Huntsman, a former Republican presidential hopeful and current vice chair of the Ford Motor Company, was previously the Atlantic Council's board chair.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | — Rep. ILHAN OMAR, The Guardian: We need a Marshall plan for Africa — Sen. PATRICK LEAHY, POLITICO: 'The Eeriest Conversation I'd Experienced in Washington' — KEVIN RUDD, The Financial Times: Xi's congress report lays bare an aggressive and statist worldview
| | | — American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 11 a.m.: ASCEND Conference — The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 12 p.m.: "Putin and War: How He Sees the World and How this Led to Ukraine" — The Institute of World Politics, 3 p.m.: "Modern Intelligence Operations Across Multi-Domain Environments" — The Wilson Center's History and Public Policy Program, 4 p.m.: Virtual book discussion on "Afghan Crucible: The Soviet Invasion and the Making of Modern Afghanistan" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is always "deeply disappointed" in us. And we thank our producer, Andy Goodwin, who stepped up — on a Friday, no less — to produce this bad boy. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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