| | | | |  | | By Brakkton Booker | With help from Ella Creamer, Jesse Naranjo, Rishika Dugyala and Teresa Wiltz
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The first voters of the day arrive at a polling site in the Brooklyn Museum as the doors open Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022, in Brooklyn. | POLITICO illustration/AP Photo | What up, Recast family! It's Election Day and that's pretty much all you need to know. Also, a programming note: The Recast will have a special post-election newsletter hitting your inboxes tomorrow morning with news, analysis and some behind-the-scenes color from some of the key races POLITICO is covering. That includes me being dispatched to the Baltimore campaign headquarters of Wes Moore, who will likely become Maryland's first Black governor. The campaigning is done and so is the early voting. All that's left to do is count the ballots and announce winners. Ah, if it were only that simple. This is the first post-insurrection election. Democrats and Republicans have both raised fears that a vote for the other party will amount to a weakening of our nation's values and political norms. However there's only one party that has a slate of candidates that flatly deny the results of the 2020 election. By one count, some 308 of the 597 Republicans running in the fall midterms identify as election deniers, according to a tally compiled by CBS News .
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Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a prominent denier of the 2020 election's results, speaks before former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally for Senate candidate JD Vance, Monday, Nov. 7, 2022, in Vandalia, Ohio. | Michael Conroy/AP Photo | That stat is not highlighted to fearmonger or cast aspersions on the GOP; it's just a fact illustratingwhere the Republican Party has shifted since the days following the last presidential election when a then-president cast doubt on his own election loss, even famously asking officials in Georgia to "find" some 11,780 votes. Democrats, who have enjoyed a governing trifecta with control of Congress and the White House, have a number of legislative achievements they can point to, including the bipartisan infrastructure deal. But with inflation at a 40-year high, most of those good vibes are eclipsed by economic concerns. That and the stubborn history that most presidents can't outrun: The first midterm usually spells doom for the commander in chief's party, and you can see why Republicans are giddy at the prospect of potentially massive gains. Steven Shepard, POLITICO's chief election guru, predicts the House is "Likely Republican" with the GOP picking up 15 seats or more. The Senate, meanwhile, remains a "Toss Up" and could come down to just a few votes in a handful of states to determine the balance of power in the upper chamber. | 
Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman, former President Barack Obama, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro and President Joe Biden rally voters Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, in Philadelphia. | Matt Rourke/AP Photo | To get a sense of the importance of the battle for the Senate, look no further than Pennsylvania. Over the weekend, it was the Keystone State that played host to President Joe Biden, with former Presidents Donald Trump and Barack Obama also stumping for their preferred candidates. It was yet another reminder that the midterms are simply a precursor to the sprint to 2024 — one that could very well lead to another Biden-Trump showdown. But before that happens… if you haven't done so already, go out and vote today! All the best,
The Recast Team
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| Power dynamics are changing. With The Recast, you'll get a twice-weekly breakdown of how race and identity are the DNA of American politics and policy. Was this forwarded to you by a friend? Subscribe to the newsletter here .
| | | GOVERNORS RACES WE'RE WATCHING
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Democratic Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams speaks to volunteers during an election eve phone and text bank party Monday, Nov. 7, 2022, in Atlanta. | John Bazemore/AP Photo | - Georgia — Yes, it's on our minds. How could it not be, amirite? This is arguably the marquee gubernatorial contest this cycle: a rematch between Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican incumbent Brian Kemp, who narrowly beat Abrams in 2018 by roughly 54,000 votes . The Georgia secretary of state's office says voters set a new record for early voting heading into Election Day.
- Massachusetts — The general election has not been much of a contest as Democrats have seen this state as an easy flip, with Charlie Baker, the popular incumbent Republican, not appearing on the ballot this year. Maura Healey, the Democratic nominee, is poised to make history with her expected victory, becoming the nation's first lesbian governor.
- Maryland — See Massachusetts, but insert Wes Moore, who is slated to become the state's first Black governor and just the nation's third Black governor ever elected.
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Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake waves to supporters at a campaign event in Queen Creek, Ariz., Wednesday, Oct. 5, 2022. | Ross D. Franklin/AP Photo | - Arizona — Like Massachusetts and Maryland, this is an open seat election. It features a race between Republican Kari Lake — who has denied the 2020 presidential election results and who has the backing of Trump — and Democrat Katie Hobbs . Hobbs is the state's top election official; she'll be overseeing ballot counting while running for governor.
Want more? Check out even deeper gubernatorial deep dives from my POLITICO colleague Zach Montellaro.
| | | KEYS TO CONTESTS FOR THE SENATE | 
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and former football star Herschel Walker, the Republican candidate, are locked in a tight Senate race in Georgia. | AP Photo |
- Georgia — The Peach State is also the site of a tight Senate race. In this race the incumbent is a Democrat, Sen. Raphael Warnock who, along with Sen. Jon Ossoff flipped Georgia blue during a runoff in early 2021, the day before the Jan. 6 insurrection. Ex-football star Herschel Walker has weathered a number of less-than-flattering headlines, including some brought on by his own son , in a contest POLITICO has rated as a "Toss Up" heading into Election Day.
- Wisconsin — Incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson has outmaneuvered Democrats twice before and has a good shot at doing it a third time. He's facing the state's current lieutenant governor, Mandela Barnes, a Democrat who could become the state's first Black senator . Barnes, though, has struggled to overcome blistering attacks accusing him of being soft on crime . POLITICO also has this race as a "Toss Up," though several public polls indicate Johnson has widened the gap in recent weeks.
- Nevada — Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, a Democrat and first Latina elected to the U.S. Senate, faces a stiff challenge from the state's former attorney general, Republican Adam Laxalt. The fact that Laxalt has drawn even in this contest is an indication that economic concerns are paramount for voters. This contest represents one of the GOP's best targets to pick up a seat.
Honorable mentions go to Senate races in Kentucky, North Carolina and Florida. Each of these races features at least one person of color on the ticket. In the Florida contest, Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.), who is Black, is taking on Sen. Marco Rubio, who is of Cuban descent. In all three contests the states are expected to remain red for at least one more cycle.
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THE RECAST'S HOUSE RACES TO PEEP
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Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is shown before a debate for Alaska's sole U.S. House seat Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2022, in Anchorage, Alaska. | Mark Thiessen/AP Photo | - Alaska's At-Large Seat — In August, Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) surprised many by defeating one-time GOP vice presidential nominee and former Gov. Sarah Palin in a special election. Not only did Peltola flip a seat previously held by the late GOP Rep. Don Young for nearly half a century, she also became the first Indigenous person to represent the state. Today there's a do-over, where Peltola is running for a full term against Palin and Nick Begich.
- Texas' 34th District — Republicans were overjoyed when Mexican-born Rep. Mayra Flores flipped a long-held Democratic seat in the Rio Grande Valley during a special election this summer. Now she faces a stiffer test, taking on Democratic Rep. Vicente González in a member-vs.-member contest. While some predict the terrain is more favorable for the Democrat, POLITICO has this race as its only "Toss Up" in Texas .
| | | ICYMI @ POLITICO Check out this POLITICO magazine profile of Charles Graham , written by yours truly. Graham, a centrist Democrat, Lumbee Indian and six-term state representative, is running for Congress, trying to turn back the tide in his southeastern corner of North Carolina, where a red wave shows little signs of receding. WATCH: Democratic candidate in North Carolina 'disappointed' in lack of party support |  | No Cotton In 2024 — Arkansas GOP Sen. Tom Cotton, long thought to be mulling a White House run, decides to sit out the next presidential campaign , POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reports. Billionaire's Last Stand — In Los Angeles, the race for the next mayor in this nonpartisan race is surprisingly close, but billionaire Rick Caruso has managed to remain competitive, thanks in part to the $100 million of his personal fortune he's dropped in the race. Democratic Rep. Karen Bass, who is Black, is seeking to become the city's first woman mayor. POLITICO's Alex Nieves has more .
| | | THE RECAST RECOMMENDS Major League Baseball legend Willie Mays, one of America's first Black sports superstars, is the focus of an HBO documentary tonight .
|  | Don't miss the final ever episode — welp — of Donald Glover's acclaimed show, "Atlanta," Thursday on FX. And while we're at it, here's a throwback look at Glover's 2018 hit, " This is America." " The Grimkes: The Legacy of Slavery in an American Family ," is out today. Historian Kerri K. Greenidge unveils the stories of the Grimke sisters' Black relatives, powerhouses in their own right, who have historically been obscured by the sisters' fame. Steve Lacy reminds us why we fell in love with "Bad Habit" in the first place with a smooth SNL performance . Discover the things BTS' Jin can't live without. Come for the limited edition Minions tennis bag, stay for the custom pajamas.
|  | Puerto Rican poet Martín Espada shares his latest striking work: " Your Card Is the King of Rats ." Busta Rhymes and Mary J. Blige release a belated visual for their soulful " You Will Never Find Another Me ." It's worth the wait. |  | TikTok of the Day: Nutella slaps
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