Skip to main content

A plea for clarity on Ukraine

A newsletter from POLITICO that unpacks essential global news, trends, and decisions.
Nov 23, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Nahal Toosi and Ryan Heath

Follow Ryan on Twitter | Follow Nahal on Twitter | Send tips and insights to rheath@politico.com

PROGRAMMING NOTE: We'll be off for Thanksgiving this Friday but back to our normal schedule on Monday, Nov. 28.

This past weekend, a prominent Ukrainian said something your co-host can't stop thinking about: "Democracy without weapons is 'blah blah blah,'" Hanna Hopko declared during the Halifax International Security Forum.

Her point, obviously, was that to protect a democracy you need actual firepower, not just words . But for some of us watching the latest debates over Russia's war on Ukraine, it seems there's plenty of "blah blah blah" regardless of the number of weapons.

Hi, all! It's Nahal Toosi, helping out Ryan Heath. As a "senior" foreign policy reporter, I am supposed to know things, but I admit being confused about the recent discussions on Ukraine. Consider this, then, a plea to the many people involved for more clarity.

Above all, what do you mean by "diplomacy?" Analysts, lawmakers and others (okay, journalists, too) sometimes throw around this term with abandon, insisting, for example, that the U.S. should engage in "diplomacy" with Russia and nudge Ukraine to do the same.

But the United States has never cut off diplomatic ties with Russia. The countries have kept embassies in each other's capitals. They talk at multiple levels, which national security adviser Jake Sullivan laid out to NBC News in September. Administration officials tell me there's no U.S.-Russian backchannel directly about Ukraine, although the talks could cover issues that affect Ukraine, such as Russia's nuclear threats. Overall, Russia-U.S. diplomacy is more limited than before the war, and the Russians usually stick to talking points. But it exists.

That said, Ukrainians and Russians engage beyond the battlefield, too. They must, after all, find ways to arrange prisoner exchanges . Thanks to interlocutors, including the Turkish government, they've maintained the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Don't be surprised if there's more going on between the two countries than either is willing to publicize.

"Peace talks" isn't a great phrase, either. Much of the discussion about diplomacy is really about ending the fighting through conversations. But terms like "peace talks" or even "negotiations" can mean many things.

Are we aiming for a "cessation of hostilities"? A "ceasefire"? A "truce"? An "armistice"? All of these can mean a pause in fighting; some can last years. But each term has different legal nuances , and none establishes a peace agreement.

This war really started in 2014, and there have been multiple efforts to negotiate an end, including the Minsk Accords and a proposal from Ukraine earlier this year. (Sabine Fischer recently published an excellent historical rundown .) But, according to Biden administration officials, the Russians have not shown recent interest in negotiations. At the moment, Ukraine — given its battlefield momentum, its anger over Russian atrocities and the political pressures facing its leaders — also sees little point in such discussions. But, for the sake of public relations, it's not ruling them out completely, even if the Kremlin is unlikely to meet Kyiv's conditions .

Don't forget: If there is a sustained, serious effort toward full-on peace negotiations that resolve every issue, there will likely have to be discussions about launching such discussions — in other words, "talks about talks."

Must the war end through however-you-define-it "diplomacy?" U.S. diplomats likely use lines like "there's no military solution to this war" because they'd like to see fewer lives lost. But sometimes, a war ends because one side militarily defeats the other.

And "ceasefires" or "peace deals" or whatever you call them can be used by both sides to simply regain strength. The messy and deadly exit from Afghanistan is one example of one side — the Taliban — taking advantage of talks to ultimately score a military victory.

As things stand, it's unlikely the Russia-Ukraine war will end in a full victory for either. For one thing, many officials and analysts I've talked to say they don't think Ukraine can retake Crimea. But many of these same analysts and officials thought Kyiv would fall in a matter of days.

Nearly nine months later, the war continues, and we should be prepared for the possibility it could last for many more months, if not years.

DEVELOPING — DEADLY BOMBINGS IN ISRAEL: Two bombs went off near bus stops in Jerusalem , killing a Canadian teenage boy and wounding at least 18 other people Wednesday. Such attacks have become relatively rare in Israel. Palestinian militants are suspected.

 

GO INSIDE THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO is featuring a special edition of our "Future Pulse" newsletter at the 2022 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit from Dec. 6 to 8. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of health industry leaders and innovators solving the biggest global health issues to ensure a healthier, more resilient future for all. SUBSCRIBE TODAY TO RECEIVE EXCLUSIVE COVERAGE .

 
 
GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

MADAM VICE PRESIDENT — BEWARE THE DANGER ZONE!

Vice President Kamala Harris was in the Philippines this week, meeting with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr . and Vice President Sara Duterte on Monday and yesterday visiting Palawan — a Philippine territory close to the disputed South China Sea — to declare "the United States stands with the Philippines in the face of intimidation and coercion in the South China Sea."

One element missing from Harris' public itinerary: events at the U.S. embassy in Manila.

A new Government Accountability Office report , which looks at "natural hazards" faced when working in the State Department's 294 overseas posts, found Manila to be the most at-risk post.

A recent example of the risks: The embassy flooded in August, causing evacuations and a temporary closure of the embassy. Floods also closed the embassy in 2013 .

U.S. embassy in Manila is pictured and is subject to flooding in August.

U.S. embassy in Manila is pictured and is subject to flooding in August. | State Department

GAO examined risks related to extreme heat and wind, water stress, flooding, earthquakes, landslides and tsunami. State began assessing these hazards as part of a Climate Security and Resilience program established during the Trump administration.

Check out their interactive map of the posts at risk .

What's at risk? 90,000 personnel, and properties valued at approximately $70 billion.

Who's most at risk? Beyond Manila-based staff, 16 of the 32 most at-risk posts are in East Asia and the Pacific.

Other major at-risk posts include Beijing, Tokyo, Seoul, Jakarta, Bangkok, Mexico City, Cairo and Islamabad.

SPORTS DIPLOMACY CORNER

Did you know? Secretary of State Antony Blinken is a "very mediocre player" but a "lifelong lover of football" — that's soccer here in the states — according to remarks he made earlier this week while in Qatar to talk about sports diplomacy.

Blinken didn't have much to say about exactly how sports and American participation in the Qatar World Cup is promoting American values and interests beyond saying "we use sports as a way of connecting people, connecting people to our country."

Left unsaid: On Monday Blinken didn't jump in to defend American beer brand Budweiser, which Qatar banished from most parts of the tournament, or speak to the difficulty players have faced making anti-discrimination statements in a country where homosexual acts are illegal.

His reticence may have been due to the fact that Qatar has proven a very helpful partner to the Biden administration, including helping the U.S. process Afghans rescued after the fall of Kabul.

On Tuesday, Blinken slammed FIFA for threatening World Cup soccer players with yellow cards if they wear armbands in support of diversity. "No one on a football pitch should be forced to choose between supporting these values and playing for their team."

Silence can speak volumes: Sometimes no voice is the best voice — as when Iran's soccer team failed to sing the Iranian regime's national anthem ahead of their first match Monday.

Gucci Helle strikes back: Former Danish PM Helle Thorning Schmidt, who critics derided as " Gucci Helle " during her political career because of her expensive fashion tastes — and who once responded to a political heckler with " we can't all look like shit " — put her fashion bona fides to the service of equality Tuesday.

Thorning-Schmit used her suit to get a pro-LGBTQ point across when meeting with Gianni Infantino, president of FIFA, soccer's global governing body.

RESTRAINERS UNRESTRAINED ON PACKER

Veteran journalist George Packer is out this week with a major Atlantic essay that essentially trashes the left-right alliance of so-called "restrainers" — people who, for various reasons, want the U.S. to reduce its military intervention abroad.

There's no easy way to summarize Packer's many points, but here's a key bit: "This restraint is not a hard-won prudence in the face of tragic facts. It's a doctrinaire refusal, by people living in the safety and comfort of the West, to believe in liberal values that depend on American support. The restrainers can't accept that politics leaves no one clean, and that the most probable alternative to U.S. hegemony is not international peace and justice but worse hegemons. They can't face the reality that force never disappears from the world; it simply changes hands."

Ouch.

Your co-host asked some restrainers to respond. A sampling of their comments:

Will Ruger , president of the American Institute for Economic Research: "Restrainers didn't take seriously that Russia might invade Ukraine? Baloney. Many of us worried about this for over a decade and thought a Russian invasion was a real possibility the more the West pushed its influence east. This is part of the reason why we advocated measures like closing NATO's open door and finding an alternative security architecture for eastern Europe."

Stephen Wertheim , senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: "The Biden administration has done well to support Ukraine while avoiding a direct war with Russia. Many 'restrainers,' including me, approve of its basic approach — contra Packer. The problem is that the United States is only more militarily overcommitted today than it was when Biden took office, given the mounting risks of major-power conflict in Europe and Asia alike."

Emma Ashford , senior fellow at the Stimson Center: "He's incredibly dismissive about realist or restrainers' concerns about the war in Ukraine, arguing it is a simple refusal to see liberal values as important. Most people I know in that camp believe liberal values are extremely important, but also worry about escalation risks, nuclear weapons, and the potential for the US to get drawn into a direct conflict with Russia."

Stephen Miles , president of Win Without War: "The biggest thing missing is the utter dominance of American imperialism as the overarching ideology of U.S. foreign policy. … Ultimately, one can believe the U.S. has a role to play in the world (even a really big role!) while recognizing that we can also [mess] things up, and also that some things just aren't really about us. The world is complex, even if our discourse doesn't allow for it."

GLOBETROTTERS

WHICH CITIES MOVE BEST? San Francisco tops a new global mobility index , despite relatively average results on sustainability and public transit, because it is the global hub for autonomous driving systems . Oslo is named as having the most sustainable transport. Hong Kong has the best public transit.

MOVES

Former Sen. Chris Dodd will serve as Special Presidential Advisor for the Americas, a follow-on from his work as President Biden's advisor on the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles in June.

A shake-up at McCourt Global, the private family company of billionaire Frank McCourt, will see former POLITICO Europe CEO Shéhérazade Semsar-de Boisséson become McCourt Global CEO, with McCourt himself becoming executive chair.

World Economic Forum-veteran Martina Larkin is CEO of Project Liberty , McCourt's nonprofit tech campaign organization, and former Internet Society vice president Constance Bommelaer de Leusse will be executive director under Larkin.

The Alliance of Democracies Foundation is sending executive director Jonas Parello-Plesner to Taiwan for the next two months, as part of an extended partnership with the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy .

SAVE THE DATES 

MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE: Feb. 17 to 19, at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof . Organizers said via email that the event "will not only focus on the transatlantic partnership but also on diverse perspectives from the Global South." The German government will use the conference to unveil its new National Security Strategy for a global audience.

CLINTON GLOBAL INITIATIVE: After a successful 2022 relaunch, CGI has confirmed they'll be back in 2023, Sept. 18-20 during UN General Assembly week.

GLOBAL IMPACT SUMMIT: Organized by the Global Steering Group for Impact Investment, which is funded by many leading foundations and the British and Canadian governments, the summit will take place in Malaga, Spain, Oct. 2-3.

 

POLITICO APP USERS: UPGRADE YOUR APP BY DECEMBER 19! We recently upgraded the POLITICO app with a fresh look and improved features for easier access to POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Starting December 19, users will no longer have access to the previous version of the app. Update your app today to stay on top of essential political news, insights, and analysis from the best journalists in the business. UPDATE iOS APP – UPDATE ANDROID APP .

 
 
BRAIN FOOD

LONG READ: The modern CEO job is broken . Elon Musk, the new head of Twitter, runs multiple companies, like one of his predecessors Jack Dorsey. It's not possible to do all of those jobs well at the same time, a sign of a broken system, argues Ed Zitron.

LONG READ: Chief Everything Officer — how chief financial officers at tech companies are taking on expanding remits.

PODCAST: Qatar, a history h/t Mark Vlasic

ONE FUN (OK, SCARY) THING

An artificial intelligence creation pummels humans at "Diplomacy."

Thanks to editors Heidi Vogt and Louis Nelson and producer Hannah Farrow.

SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: D.C. Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | Paris Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | EU Confidential | D.C. Influence | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Direct | Berlin Bulletin | Living Cities

 

Follow us on Twitter

Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan

 

Follow us

Follow us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Instagram Listen on Apple Podcast
 

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to rouf@idiot.cloudns.cc by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Please click here and follow the steps to unsubscribe.

Comments

Popular Posts

📄 Liaqat Ali Ali shared Waheed Zaman's post

  See the post that he shared.           Facebook                 📄 Liaqat Ali Ali shared Waheed Zaman 's post. 26 April at 12:09   View               This message was sent to ludomallam@idiot.cloudns.cc . If you don't want to receive these emails from Facebook in the future, please unsubscribe . Facebook, Inc., Attention: Community Support, 1 Facebook Way, Menlo Park, CA 94025         To help keep your account secure, please don't forward this email. Learn more      

📄 Sazzad Khan shared Shakil Khan's post

  Ludo, see the post that he shared.           Facebook                 📄 Sazzad Khan shared Shakil Khan 's post. 27 April at 21:42   View               This message was sent to ludomallam@idiot.cloudns.cc . If you don't want to receive these emails from Facebook in the future, please unsubscribe . Facebook, Inc., Attention: Community Support, 1 Facebook Way, Menlo Park, CA 94025         To help keep your account secure, please don't forward this email. Learn more      

Afjal Hossain wants to be friends on Facebook

  1 mutual friend - Works at won businass - Atrai, Rājshāhi, Bangladesh - 3,883 friends - 6 photos - 3 groups           Facebook             Afjal Hossain wants to be friends with you on Facebook.   Afjal Hossain Works at won businass · Atrai, Rājshāhi, Bangladesh 1 mutual friend · 3,883 friends · 6 photos · 3 groups               Confirm request     See all requests             This message was sent to ludomallam@idiot.cloudns.cc . If you don't want to receive these emails from Facebook in the future, please unsubscribe . Facebook, Inc., Attention: Community Support, 1 Facebook Way, Menlo Park, CA 94025         To help keep your account secure, please don't forward this email. Learn more.      

DeepMind Gemini AI could rival ChatGPT / Congress restricts ChatGPT use / Unity launches AI marketplace

Plus: C-suite leaders plan to hire due to generative AI Inside AI For June 27, 2023 Thank you to our sponsor Hey Insiders,  Welcome to Inside AI! Here are today's top stories: Google DeepMind is developing a Gemini chatbot to rival ChatGPT. 64% of C-suite leaders say they plan to increase hiring due to generative AI. U.S. House members were instructed to limit ChatGPT usage to the paid version. Scroll down for some quick hits, and then let us know what other content you'd like to see in future issues!  Beth p/beth-duckett 1 Google DeepMind, its AI research lab, is developing a new chatbot called Gemini that could rival or surpass OpenAI's ChatGPT, according to CEO Demis Hassabis. Gemini, built on the capabilities of DeepMind's AlphaGo AI system, could analyze text, plan, and solve problems, Hassabis told Wired. More: AlphaGo is DeepMind's AI system that defeated a professional human player i...

The $975 million TikTok mystery

Red flags pile up in Khaby Lame’s mega deal. View in browser | Subscribe ...

Breaking News: Dems fall short of flipping deep-red House seat in surprisingly competitive Tennessee special election

Dems fall short of flipping deep-red House seat in surprisingly competitive Tennessee special election Breaking News Alert ...

Start separating your leaves from your trash

Presented by Uber: POLITICO's must-read briefing informing the daily conversation among knowledgeable New Yorkers May 31, 2023 View in browser   By Danielle Muoio Dunn and Zachary Schermele Presented by ...

75% of software engineers faced retaliation after reporting wrongdoing / AWS announces new updates to CodeWhisperer at re:Invent event

Plus, Plane raises a $4M seed round Inside Dev For November 29, 2023 Thank you to our sponsor Here's a look at today's Dev briefing. Engprax's research discovered that 75% of developers who reported wrongdoings faced retaliation.  AWS unveiled new updates to CodeWhisperer at re:Invent.  Microsoft open-sourced Azure RTOS.  Thank you. Sudarshan p/sudarshan 1 A recent Engprax/Survation research revealed that 75% of software engineers in the U.K. faced retaliation after reporting wrongdoing to their employers. More than half (53%) of respondents said they suspected wrongdoing at work. More: Software engineers who did not report wrongdoing pointed to fear or retaliation from management (59%) and colleagues (44%) as the main reasons. The investigation also indicated that engineers feel unsafe to voice concerns because of flaws in the "industry standard" metrics frameworks used to asses softwar...

Trump verdict puts Illinois GOP on the attack

Shia Kapos' must-read rundown of political news in the Land of Lincoln May 31, 2024 View in browser   By Shia Kapos TGIF, Illinois . The 2024 presidential campaign just got a new talking point. TOP TALKER PLEDGING ALLEGIANCE: Illinois Republicans and a certain former gove...

Meta removes disinformation campaigns / Google Maps disables features in Ukraine / NIO seeks HK listing

Plus: OnePlus's upcoming phone can fully charge in 15 minutes. Inside.com Part of   Network February 28, 2022 Presented by Facebook parent company Meta said it took down two disinformation campaigns that targeted Ukraine and were spreading anti-Ukrainian propaganda. Russia-linked hacking group Ghostwriter, which perpetrated one of the campaigns, gained access to real Facebook accounts and posted YouTube videos "portraying Ukrainian troops as weak and surrendering to Russia," according to Meta. The company said it blocked phishing domains that Ghostwriter used to gain access to the accounts and beefed up security. More: Meta described the second disinformation campaign as "coordinated inauthentic behavior" made up of about 40 accounts, pages, and groups on Facebook and Instagram.  The campaign ran several websites disguised as independent...

Popular Posts

📄 Liaqat Ali Ali shared Waheed Zaman's post

  See the post that he shared.           Facebook                 📄 Liaqat Ali Ali shared Waheed Zaman 's post. 26 April at 12:09   View               This message was sent to ludomallam@idiot.cloudns.cc . If you don't want to receive these emails from Facebook in the future, please unsubscribe . Facebook, Inc., Attention: Community Support, 1 Facebook Way, Menlo Park, CA 94025         To help keep your account secure, please don't forward this email. Learn more      

📄 Sazzad Khan shared Shakil Khan's post

  Ludo, see the post that he shared.           Facebook                 📄 Sazzad Khan shared Shakil Khan 's post. 27 April at 21:42   View               This message was sent to ludomallam@idiot.cloudns.cc . If you don't want to receive these emails from Facebook in the future, please unsubscribe . Facebook, Inc., Attention: Community Support, 1 Facebook Way, Menlo Park, CA 94025         To help keep your account secure, please don't forward this email. Learn more      

Afjal Hossain wants to be friends on Facebook

  1 mutual friend - Works at won businass - Atrai, Rājshāhi, Bangladesh - 3,883 friends - 6 photos - 3 groups           Facebook             Afjal Hossain wants to be friends with you on Facebook.   Afjal Hossain Works at won businass · Atrai, Rājshāhi, Bangladesh 1 mutual friend · 3,883 friends · 6 photos · 3 groups               Confirm request     See all requests             This message was sent to ludomallam@idiot.cloudns.cc . If you don't want to receive these emails from Facebook in the future, please unsubscribe . Facebook, Inc., Attention: Community Support, 1 Facebook Way, Menlo Park, CA 94025         To help keep your account secure, please don't forward this email. Learn more.      

DeepMind Gemini AI could rival ChatGPT / Congress restricts ChatGPT use / Unity launches AI marketplace

Plus: C-suite leaders plan to hire due to generative AI Inside AI For June 27, 2023 Thank you to our sponsor Hey Insiders,  Welcome to Inside AI! Here are today's top stories: Google DeepMind is developing a Gemini chatbot to rival ChatGPT. 64% of C-suite leaders say they plan to increase hiring due to generative AI. U.S. House members were instructed to limit ChatGPT usage to the paid version. Scroll down for some quick hits, and then let us know what other content you'd like to see in future issues!  Beth p/beth-duckett 1 Google DeepMind, its AI research lab, is developing a new chatbot called Gemini that could rival or surpass OpenAI's ChatGPT, according to CEO Demis Hassabis. Gemini, built on the capabilities of DeepMind's AlphaGo AI system, could analyze text, plan, and solve problems, Hassabis told Wired. More: AlphaGo is DeepMind's AI system that defeated a professional human player i...

The $975 million TikTok mystery

Red flags pile up in Khaby Lame’s mega deal. View in browser | Subscribe ...

Breaking News: Dems fall short of flipping deep-red House seat in surprisingly competitive Tennessee special election

Dems fall short of flipping deep-red House seat in surprisingly competitive Tennessee special election Breaking News Alert ...

Start separating your leaves from your trash

Presented by Uber: POLITICO's must-read briefing informing the daily conversation among knowledgeable New Yorkers May 31, 2023 View in browser   By Danielle Muoio Dunn and Zachary Schermele Presented by ...

75% of software engineers faced retaliation after reporting wrongdoing / AWS announces new updates to CodeWhisperer at re:Invent event

Plus, Plane raises a $4M seed round Inside Dev For November 29, 2023 Thank you to our sponsor Here's a look at today's Dev briefing. Engprax's research discovered that 75% of developers who reported wrongdoings faced retaliation.  AWS unveiled new updates to CodeWhisperer at re:Invent.  Microsoft open-sourced Azure RTOS.  Thank you. Sudarshan p/sudarshan 1 A recent Engprax/Survation research revealed that 75% of software engineers in the U.K. faced retaliation after reporting wrongdoing to their employers. More than half (53%) of respondents said they suspected wrongdoing at work. More: Software engineers who did not report wrongdoing pointed to fear or retaliation from management (59%) and colleagues (44%) as the main reasons. The investigation also indicated that engineers feel unsafe to voice concerns because of flaws in the "industry standard" metrics frameworks used to asses softwar...

Trump verdict puts Illinois GOP on the attack

Shia Kapos' must-read rundown of political news in the Land of Lincoln May 31, 2024 View in browser   By Shia Kapos TGIF, Illinois . The 2024 presidential campaign just got a new talking point. TOP TALKER PLEDGING ALLEGIANCE: Illinois Republicans and a certain former gove...

Meta removes disinformation campaigns / Google Maps disables features in Ukraine / NIO seeks HK listing

Plus: OnePlus's upcoming phone can fully charge in 15 minutes. Inside.com Part of   Network February 28, 2022 Presented by Facebook parent company Meta said it took down two disinformation campaigns that targeted Ukraine and were spreading anti-Ukrainian propaganda. Russia-linked hacking group Ghostwriter, which perpetrated one of the campaigns, gained access to real Facebook accounts and posted YouTube videos "portraying Ukrainian troops as weak and surrendering to Russia," according to Meta. The company said it blocked phishing domains that Ghostwriter used to gain access to the accounts and beefed up security. More: Meta described the second disinformation campaign as "coordinated inauthentic behavior" made up of about 40 accounts, pages, and groups on Facebook and Instagram.  The campaign ran several websites disguised as independent...

Archive

Show more

Bottom Widget

Bottom Widget

font.css

videocontrol.css

GitFootCSS

BottomEdge Widget Title

Copyright © 2023 IdiotMail