A third Covid winter and most have had it

The ideas and innovators shaping health care

Nov 22, 2022 View in browser   By Grace Scullion , Ben Leonard , Ruth Reader and Carmen Paun PANDEMIC Jha says the country has built-up immunity as the third Covid winter arrives. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images This time last year, the Omicron variant crept into holiday gatherings and spurred a winter surge in which more Americans were infected than in any other period of the pandemic. Upticks in hospitalization and case counts in Europe this September inspired a foreboding sense of deja vu. But Ashish Jha, the White House's Covid-19 response coordinator, predicts the U.S. won't see a repeat of last year. "I believe we are in a way better place no matter what Mother Nature throws at us," Jha said at the STAT Summit last week. Jha's case: Almost all Americans have had Covid and about 9 in 10 have received at least one Covid vaccination, which provides a level of immunity that didn't exist last year. Across the pond: In the past, spikes in European cases have preceded similar increases in the U.S. But after rising briefly, European case counts, hospitalizations and deaths have steadily decreased since mid-October, according to data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. In the U.S., case and death counts have stayed relatively flat this fall, though an outbreak in the Southwest is increasing hospitalizations by 30 percent or more in some states. Death rates haven't spiked. Boosters vs. BQs: Still, the rise of new Covid strains in the U.S. is reason for caution. Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 now cause most cases, while in Europe, BA.5 still makes up 80 percent of Covid infections. "We don't know what the next shoe to drop is," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "This virus is continuing to mutate in a way that makes it highly unpredictable." The bivalent boosters from Moderna and Pfizer that the FDA approved in September were engineered to target BA.5 and BA.4 Omicron subvariants — not BQ.1 and BQ.1.1. Both drugmakers say they expect their boosters will also work well against the new strains. However, two small studies from researchers at Columbia University and Harvard Medical School suggest the new boosters perform no better than the original ones, though neither study was peer-reviewed. The shots are still effective against severe disease but provide only modest protection against infection.   POLITICO APP USERS: UPGRADE YOUR APP BY DECEMBER 19! We recently upgraded the POLITICO app with a fresh look and improved features for easier access to POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Starting December 19, users will no longer have access to the previous version of the app. Update your app today to stay on top of essential political news, insights, and analysis from the best journalists in the business. UPDATE iOS APP – UPDATE ANDROID APP .     WELCOME TO FUTURE PULSE Pemaquid Point, Maine | Sam Oates This is where we explore the ideas and innovators shaping health care.  We'll be off for Thanksgiving this Thursday and Friday but back to our normal schedule on Monday, Nov. 28. Why don't we have at home tests for flu — and should we? Covid-19 made at-home testing ubiquitous. What barriers do you see to applying the same model to common seasonal ailments like flu and RSV? We want to know what you think. Share news, tips and feedback with Ben Leonard at bleonard@politico.com, Ruth Reader at rreader@politico.com, Carmen Paun at cpaun@politico.com or Grace Scullion at gscullion@politico.com.  Send tips securely through SecureDrop, Signal, Telegram or WhatsApp. Today on our Pulse Check podcast, Ruth and Katherine Ellen Foley discuss the impact on long Covid treatments if the new Congress doesn't approve additional funding for Covid-19 research. Listen to today's Pulse Check podcast CHECKUP Missed cancer screenings during the Covid pandemic are leading to missed cases. | AP Cancer screenings remained below pre-pandemic levels in 2021, new research published in JAMA Oncology found. The nationwide data from a Trilliant Health all-payer claims database also showed a decline in cancer prevalence — suggesting that people are going undiagnosed. "The pattern we found suggests a substantial proportion of forgone care through 2021. To mitigate long-term consequences, multiple stakeholders will need to consider novel strategies," the authors said, adding to the mounting evidence that care missed during the pandemic will have costly consequences. Previous research found that medical appointments missed in the early months of the pandemic may never be made up. WORLD VIEW Red Cross workers in Uganda prepare to bury a child suspected of dying of Ebola last month. | Getty Images The hunt for new viruses and bacteria with pandemic potential has begun. The World Health Organization said Monday it plans to update by early next year its list of pathogens most likely to cause outbreaks or pandemics. New pathogens could be added to a WHO list that already includes well-known ailments such as Covid-19, Ebola, MERS, SARS and Zika, as well as: — Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, which is usually transmitted by ticks and has a death rate between 10 and 40 percent — Lassa fever, which is caused by a virus transmitted by a species of rats living in parts of West Africa, and has a death rate of 1 percent — Nipah and other henipaviruses coming from animals such as pigs, which can kill between 40 and 70 percent of infected people — Rift Valley fever, transmitted by mosquitoes and flies, which can cause disease ranging from a mild flu-like illness to severe hemorrhagic fever that can be deadly More than 300 scientists are participating in the analysis to determine which diseases to add. The WHO hopes the list will spur further investment in research and development aimed at vaccines and therapies.   TUNE IN TO THE PULSE CHECK PODCAST: Keep your finger on the pulse of the biggest stories in health care by listening to our daily Pulse Check podcast. POLITICO's must-listen briefing decodes healthcare policy and politics, and delivers reality checks from health professionals on the front lines. SUBSCRIBE NOW AND START LISTENING .     THINK FAST Breast cancer remains the second most dangerous cancer to women, the CDC says, after lung cancer. | Getty Images Google's latest foray into health care offers hope in the fight against breast cancer. The firm has signed its first commercial deal for a mammography algorithm that uses artificial intelligence to catch breast cancer tumors earlier. iCAD, a developer of breast cancer-detection technology based in New Hampshire, will incorporate Google's AI into its own framework. This is the second health algorithm Google has licensed. The company teamed with California-based PacBio earlier this year in a bid to improve genome sequencing.   Follow us on Twitter Ben Leonard @_BenLeonard_ Ruth Reader @RuthReader Carmen Paun @carmenpaun   Follow us

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