| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward , Lara Seligman and Matt Berg | | 
Ukrainian soldiers train on a US-supplied MaxxPro MRAP Navistar mine resistant armored fighting vehicle on Oct. 17, 2022 in Nyzhche Solone, Kharkiv oblast, Ukraine. | Carl Court/Getty Images | With help from Nahal Toosi Register for POLITICO's upcoming conference, " At a Crossroads: America's Defense Strategy ," taking place on Nov. 16 in Washington, D.C. Confirmed speakers include HASC Chair Rep. ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.), Army Chief of Staff Gen. JAMES McCONVILLE, Lockheed Martin President and CEO JAMES TAICLET and Raytheon Missiles and Defense President WES KREMER. We look forward to seeing our NatSec Daily family there! Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The Biden administration is pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table with Russia. Except that, maybe, it's actually not? Two Wednesday stories caused confusion around town and left your friendly neighborhood NatSec Daily team wondering wtf was going on. In the morning, NBC News reported that some U.S. and Western officials "are eyeing the expected winter slowdown in fighting as an opportunity for diplomacy to begin between Russia and Ukraine." That story got a little backup from Gen. MARK MILLEY , the Joint Chiefs chair, who told an audience in New York that Russia's retreat in preparation for a spring offensive provides "a window of opportunity for negotiation." So the United States must be pushing Ukraine to begin peace talks with Russia, right? Well… Wednesday evening The New York Times reported that "American and European officials say serious peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are unlikely in the near future." As the story suggests, Ukraine is doing very well militarily, and President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY would lose support by trying to make a deal now. And it's not like VLADIMIR PUTIN has shown a real desire to broker an agreement and recall his troops. President JOE BIDEN also doesn't sound like a guy yearning for imminent diplomacy. "It remains to be seen whether or not there'll be a judgment made as to whether or not Ukraine is prepared to compromise with Russia," he told reporters on Wednesday. What gives? After all, Alex recently reported that the U.S. wants Ukraine to show its willingness to resolve the conflict peacefully and reasonably, but not necessarily dive into talks right away. We asked senior administration officials which interpretation — talks soon or talks later — was more correct. They mainly indicated it was "talks later." Russia — read: Putin — needs to feel he has no military path forward before he'll agree to serious talks. In the meantime, Kyiv needs to remain open to a peaceful resolution until the right time comes. National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN seemed to confirm this Thursday by saying it was ultimately up to the Ukrainians on when the timing is right . The administration's current focus is on helping Ukraine defend itself, he said, putting Ukraine in the strongest possible position for talks. That's a stance that is sure to please officials in Kyiv . Meanwhile, on the ground, U.S. defense officials believe fighting will stall in some areas as winter sets in. In the northeast Kharkiv region, where Ukraine made huge gains in September, both sides are digging in, with little territory trading hands. Similarly in the central Bakhmut region, the front will likely stabilize as mud, rain and freezing ground makes it more challenging for tanks and vehicles to move freely. The fighting around Kherson, however, is harder to predict, the officials said. The Russians announced on Wednesday that they will retreat from the city and consolidate on the opposite bank of the Dnipro River, redeploying half of those troops to elsewhere in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials remain skeptical that the Russians will actually leave, though their American counterparts said early indications are that they are heading in that direction. "We have seen some indications of movement within Kherson city, but it's a bit too early to make an assessment just yet on the full movement of Russian troops," said Pentagon spokesperson SABRINA SINGH. But despite the tactical win, some U.S. officials privately question Kyiv's ability to achieve its stated goal of completely removing Russia from all occupied areas of Ukraine, including Crimea. Ukraine still needs a significant amount of artillery going forward, the defense official said, and work is ongoing to figure out how much and how quickly the West can produce the munitions Kyiv needs for the coming fight. The burn rate on munitions in the conflict has been sky-high: Ukraine fires 4,000 to 7,000 artillery rounds a day, while Russia fires 20,000 rounds a day. Additional aid for Ukraine will be a topic of discussion next Wednesday, Nov. 16, when Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN hosts his international counterparts for a virtual meeting of the Ukraine defense contact group, Singh announced Thursday.
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | | | | BIDEN, XI, BALI: Biden and Chinese President XI JINPING will hold their first in-person meeting on Nov. 14 on the sidelines of next week's G20 summit in Bali, the White House confirmed Thursday. But don't expect much to come from the chat. "I don't think you should look at this meeting as one in which there's going to be specific deliverables," Sullivan told reporters Thursday. A senior administration official earlier said there won't be a joint statement. During his post-midterms news conference Wednesday, Biden said that he would plan to "lay out what each of our red lines are … and determine whether they conflict with one another." "I've told him I'm looking for competition, not conflict," Biden added. MORE MILITARY AID: The U.S. will send another $400 million to Ukraine, which will include large amounts of ammunition and a new air defense system, the Defense Department announced Thursday. For the first time, Kyiv will receive highly mobile Avenger Air Defense Systems, officials said. The package will also include ammunition for HIMARS the U.S. has provided to the country for its defensive efforts against Russia, and mortars and missiles for the Hawk surface-to-air anti-aircraft system. The aid package comes as control of Congress hangs in the balance following Tuesday's midterm elections. If Republicans take control of the House, it's expected that ongoing aid to Ukraine may decline. BUT NO GRAY EAGLES: Despite pleas from Ukraine and members of Congress, the Biden administration won't budge on its refusal to send advanced drones to Ukraine, showing the limit on weapons the U.S. is willing to provide to Kyiv, the Wall Street Journal's GORDON LUBOLD and NANCY YOUSSEF report . The Pentagon declined to send the Gray Eagle MQ-1C drones due to concerns that the weapons could escalate Ukraine's conflict with Russia, U.S. officials and other people familiar with the decision told the Journal. Officials also don't want the Kremlin to believe the U.S. is providing weapons that could potentially hit Russian targets. The decision is a blow to Kyiv, which has requested advanced weaponry for months. It also directly ignores a formal request from a group of bipartisan lawmakers, who sent a letter to the administration in September asking to speed up the review process for providing Gray Eagles. NO SHOW: One prominent leader will be noticeably absent at the G20 summit in Indonesia next week: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN. Instead, Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV will lead the Russian delegation , according to Moscow's embassy to Indonesia. The announcement concludes months of speculation about Putin's plans for the summit and came shortly after the Russian military announced the retreat from Kherson. "President Putin's program is still being worked out; he could participate virtually," the Russian embassy's chief of protocol officer in Indonesia, YULIA TOMSKAYA, told AFP . UKRAINE ADVANCES: Ukrainian forces advanced more than four miles in the south and recaptured a dozen settlements in the last day, Reuters' TOM BALMFORTH and MAX HUNDER report . Troops advanced in two directions: from Pervomaiske toward Kherson, and from Petropavlivka toward Novoraysk, roughly parallel with the Dnipro River, Ukrainian army chief VALERIY ZALUZHNYI said on Thursday. It was unclear which Pervomaiske he meant. In total, Ukraine gained a total of 102 square miles in territory, he said. HAPPY BIRTHDAY, MARINE CORPS!: It's the Marine Corps' 247th birthday today, and that sound you hear is swords cutting through cakes across the world. Gather your "old" and "young" Marine around for the annual tradition. We here at NatSec Daily wish you the happiest of birthdays with our sturdiest knife hand. (And, yes, lawmakers have continued the annual tradition of congratulating the Marines with images of other nations' ships .) IT'S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 . While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 and @Lawrence_Ukenye .
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America's next strategic tanker.
Lockheed Martin and Airbus announced the LMXT's boom will be manufactured in Arkansas, reinforcing that the LMXT will be built in America for Americans by Americans. Learn more. | | | | | | IRAN'S HYPERSONIC MISSILE: Iranian media reported that Iran has built a hypersonic ballistic missile — a development that's likely to heighten tensions surrounding the country's missile capabilities, Reuters reports . It's "a big generational leap in the field of missiles," Revolutionary Guard commander AMIR ALI HAJIZADEH told Tasnim, saying it will target "the enemy's advanced anti-missile systems." Hypersonic missiles are difficult to intercept since they can travel at least five times faster than the speed of light and on a complex trajectory. But there have been no reports of the missile being tested in Iran, and experts say Iran sometimes exaggerates its weapons capabilities.
| | | LESSONS OF WAR: Representatives from NATO countries are gathering in Rome today for the bloc's Cyber Defense Pledge Conference, which will zero in on lessons learned from the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, our friends over at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report . The summit, which kicked off with some less meaty content yesterday, will take place in two segments — the first focused on efforts by permanent NATO members to defend against cyber threats and promote cyber resilience and the second on exploring ways to protect the energy sector against cyberattacks. Today's conference will feature keynotes from NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG, Italian Deputy Foreign Minister EDMONDO CIRIELLI and ANNE NEUBERGER, the White House deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology. Leaders are meeting amid heightened concerns of Russian cyberattacks against both Ukrainian and NATO critical infrastructure. In recent weeks, Russia has stepped up missile attacks against energy centers in Ukraine, and it has previously used cyberattacks in efforts to disable electricity in portions of the country. VERIFICATION PROBS: A major problem has already arisen with Twitter's "verification" plan. Someone pretending to be former President GEORGE W. BUSH paid for the blue checkmark and then tweeted "I miss killing Iraqis." Then another verified account pretending to be former British Prime Minister TONY BLAIR quote tweeted " Same tbh ." The fake accounts have been suspended, so that's good. But it's another sign of how easy it can be for someone to impersonate known figures and cause some trouble on Twitter. And other mischief makers may have an easier time as well, given that Twitter's cybersecurity chief just quit the company .
| | | CONNECTION ISSUES: The Army and allies are wrapping up the service's annual Project Convergence experiment and learning that managing data and connecting weapons and units on the battlefield is much harder than they believed, our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report . Army Secretary CHRISTINE WORMUTH told reporters Wednesday she wants the Office of the Secretary of Defense to provide guidance on how to standardize data formats. Air Force Lt. Gen. CLINT HINOTE, deputy chief of staff, put it more bluntly, saying progress was made in sharing data, but the amount of information provided to the participants was overwhelming and not useful.
| | | GOP TO CUT UKRAINE AID?: House Republicans are already discussing how to alter a Ukraine aid package in a way that's acceptable to the populist wing, per the Washington Post's JOSH ROGIN . "Many Republicans are looking to cut much of the economic assistance while keeping or even increasing the military component — something of a compromise," he reports. The Ukrainian government is fairly certain the military aid will continue to flow with Republicans in charge of at least one chamber. But they're more worried economic assistance will dry up , potentially bankrupting Kyiv when it needs funds to rebuild a country destroyed by war. AOC ON UKRAINE: Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.) studiously avoided commenting on the Congressional Progressive Caucus letter on Ukraine that she signed — until now. Under questioning from The Intercept's RYAN GRIM , the Squad member says that diplomacy should still be prioritized, but the timing for sit-down negotiations needs to be right. "How can we bring Russia to the table without compromising Ukrainian sovereignty and just core principles of self-determination? But that is really what the landscape of diplomacy is about," she said. AOC in effect outlined the progressive position on Ukraine: Diplomacy first when possible, but the U.S. should still support the Ukrainian people's desire for sovereignty and self-rule. It's the message progressives tried to get in their letter, though the timing of its release scuttled it all.
| | | | DON'T MISS POLITICO'S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, "At a Crossroads: America's Defense Strategy" on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America's national security. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | | DON'T LOOK AT ME: The European Union's top two officials don't want to be in the same room as one another during the G20 summit next week. "Rather than coordinate, the bloc's top two officials — European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN and European Council President CHARLES MICHEL — are more likely to avoid each other, with staffers involved in organizing the trip under strict instructions to avoid any overlap in itineraries," our own SUZANNE LYNCH reports. Their three-year relationship is at an all-time low, with both locking each other out from meetings with foreign leaders. The EU simply doesn't have a united leadership team. This will play out at the G20 as Michel will meet with Chinese leader XI JINPING but not von der Leyen. The reason? She didn't permit Michel to join a meeting with Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI at the G7 in June. Pettiness: It's not just for kids.
| | | |   | | | | | | — ROBIN McGAHEY is joining the British Embassy in the U.S. as the chief communications officer for public diplomacy. She was previously at Freedom House and the Truman National Security Project.
| | | — Gen. DAVID BERGER, Proceedings: Recruiting Requires Bold Change — MAXIMILLIAN POTTER, Vanity Fair: The Feres Doctrine: The Fight to End a Systemic Miscarriage of Military Justice — BONNY LIN and JOEL WUTHNOW, Foreign Affairs: The Weakness Behind China's Strong Façade: Xi's Reach Exceeds His Military's Grasp
| | | — Finnish Institute of International Affairs, 10:30 a.m.: "Russia and the Future of Europe: Lessons Learnt and Future Prospects" — The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 1 p.m.: "Paths of Dissent: American Veterans and U.S. Foreign Policymaking" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who really loves this newsletter. Except, actually, she doesn't. And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who is beloved by all.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America's next strategic tanker.
The LMXT aircraft delivers proven capabilities for the U.S. Air Force's increasing aerial refueling missions. One of the LMXT's discriminating capabilities is its refueling system, which includes a fly-by-wire aerial refueling boom. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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