Biden, the non boogeyman

Nov 16, 2022 View in browser   By Sam Stein , Alex Thompson and Eli Stokols Welcome to POLITICO's West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration. With help from Allie Bice and Daniel Lippman.   Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Eli For the past few years, Republican operatives have undertaken an extensive effort to frame JOE BIDEN as a bumbling man of advanced age and diminishing acuity who used his power to enrich his family and embark on a latent leftist agenda. To a degree, their project worked. Biden's approval rating heading into last week's midterm election was exactly at the place where those cycles tend to crash badly for the party in power. But as GOP operatives take stock of why the crash didn't come, many are reaching a nagging conclusion: Biden was not the villain they needed and it's not clear he will ever be. "The Clintons, Obama, AOC and Pelosi are GOP base motivators," said MICHAEL BIUNDO, a longtime GOP operative and former DONALD TRUMP adviser. "Biden doesn't stoke the flames like they do. Heck, he doesn't stoke the flames like Trump and abortion does for the Democrats' base." Recent political history is rife with examples of national Democrats being turned into galvanizing boogeymen for Republicans. BILL CLINTON brought out conservatives in droves. BARACK OBAMA sparked intense backlash, including, his aides believe, the nativism that led to Trump's own rise. "Fire Pelosi" was the rallying cry for Republicans in 2010 (and many elections since). HILLARY CLINTON's unfavorability ratings were an anchor around the party in 2016. Biden, white and male and with little of Bill Clinton's personal drama, has yet to elicit such a visceral reaction. He has a public image crafted over decades in the national spotlight. That image has taken various turns — new generation Democrat, loquacious and self-indulgent senator, Corvette-driving-ice-cream-eating renegade V.P., aging uncle/statesman president — but it has never been inherently toxic. His team now sees the milquetoast Biden brand as a key advantage. "Joe Biden has never forgotten who he is, which is why he has an enduring relationship with the American middle class," White House spokesman ANDREW BATES said. "And Scranton always beats Park Avenue." Republicans have spent a lot of resources driving up negative assessments of the job Biden is doing. A troupe of so-called "nihilist teenage shitposters" at the Republican National Committee (they embrace the title) are deeply invested in the cause. But it hasn't always translated into a negative assessment of Biden's image. "His job approval was what was always upside down and it remained so today," said one Republican strategist who was deeply involved in the 2022 House races. "But he has an air of affability to him which benefited Democrats. Even when his approval was in the high 30s, low 40s." During the 2020 presidential campaign, Trump's team encountered a similar problem . And during the early months of the Biden presidency, Republicans were conceding to our DAVID SIDERS that the president "is not a good bad guy." But as the presidency progressed and the public's approval of the job Biden was doing kept slipping, there was a sense that he was becoming a real liability for Democrats. That conviction grew firmer as Biden spent the closing weeks staying away from swing states and keeping his public events limited. In some cases, Democrats explicitly asked his team not to come to their states for fear that association would drag them down. And unlike his predecessor, Biden was humble – or pragmatic – enough to keep a relatively lower profile down the stretch. In the end, Republicans are concluding that there was a fundamental difference between Biden being a liability for Democrats and an asset for the GOP. The portrayal of an aging, fading president may have taken root in some quarters. But that didn't mean moderate voters were convinced or cared all that much, or that there was enough buy-in from the base to turn the midterms into a triumph. And while Biden's absence from the trail may have hinted at his weaknesses, it also hid them too. "Biden was not always the best boogeyman, conceded a GOP campaign official. "But at the same time, what was different between Biden and Obama and Hillary is that Biden didn't do anything. Any time Biden opened his mouth, our folks would be fired up and mad but then he'd go underground for a week and a half." The approach, the official concluded, "was savvy, as far as making it less of a referendum on him." MESSAGE US — Are you COLLEEN MORAN, assistant supervisor for records management? We want to hear from you! And we'll keep you anonymous. Email us at westwingtips@politico.com .   POLITICO APP USERS: UPGRADE YOUR APP BY DECEMBER 19! We recently upgraded the POLITICO app with a fresh look and improved features for easier access to POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Starting December 19, users will no longer have access to the previous version of the app. Update your app today to stay on top of essential political news, insights, and analysis from the best journalists in the business. UPDATE iOS APP – UPDATE ANDROID APP .     POTUS PUZZLER This one is from reader JACOB POLLICOVE. Who was the first president born outside of the original 13 states? (Answer at the bottom.) The Oval FRIENDSGIVING ON THE CALENDAR: The president and first lady JILL BIDEN are scheduled to travel to Marine Corps Air Station Cherry Point, North Carolina on Nov. 21, where they'll have a friendsgiving with service members and their families. WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN'T WANT YOU TO READ: That inflation has hit Thanksgiving dinners. WaPo's CATHERINE RAMPELL tweeted Wednesday that "A Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people is up 20 percent from last year, per American Farm Bureau. Overall inflation, persistent supply-chain issues, avian flu reducing flocks, etc. have affected prices." WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: That the American Farm Bureau data is from October, JESSE LEE, National Economic Council senior adviser for communications noted Wednesday. "As one example, Farm Bureau helpfully concedes their prices are from October, out of date. Frozen turkey was down to $1.11/pound by November, down to $.97 now. Sales have it at $.39 at Kroger, $.37 at Giant. Farm Bureau's outdated table says… $1.81." COME TO THINK OF IT: They may also want you to read this wrap of Biden's Asia trip by AP's ZEKE MILLER and CHRIS MEGERIAN , which declares that a trip many thought would serve as an escape following a midterm drubbing became a "victory lap." BIDEN BOOK TEA LEAVES: The Atlantic's FRANK FOER, who has been working on a Biden-focused book since the beginning of the administration, has a piece out today about Biden's political instincts. It provides a potential early look at his take on Biden. Several White House officials shared. "[Biden] had a theory for how his party could navigate the nation's polarization, and it was far shrewder than appreciated, in part because of its generosity to his fellow citizens and their concerns," Foer writes. Sounds like Foer is about to write the second most interesting book on Biden. CAMPAIGNING BY ANOTHER NAME: As Trump launched his campaign on Tuesday night, the White House published a new page on their website touting accomplishments. If you open it on your desktop web browser, you may notice that Vice President KAMALA HARRIS is front and center. THE BUREAUCRATS PERSONNEL MOVES: MARC AIDINOFF, who had been chief of staff at the White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy, is leaving in a month. Aidinoff will be a visiting professor in the southern studies department at the University of Mississippi. The new chief of staff will be ASAD RAMZANALI, who ran legislative affairs for OSTP and is an alum of Rep. ANNA ESHOO's (D-Calif.) office. FEAR OF RETALIATION: The Pentagon's top cyber official, MIEKE EOYANG, argued Wednesday that Russia has held off from hacking the U.S.'s infrastructure during its invasion of Ukraine because of Biden's warnings and because of Moscow's limited cyber capacity. "We are seeing what happens when Russia is forced to make choices about how it allocates the cyber capacity that it has," Eoyang said. Our ERIC GELLER has more for Pro subscribers. Agenda Setting ABANDONING HOPE: The White House's hope for Congress to raise the nation's debt limit before the year's end is waning , our BEN WHITE and ADAM CANCRYN report. Administration officials think there's a slim chance any Republicans will be willing to sign onto a debt limit increase during the lame duck session or that they have the 50 Democratic Senate votes they need to move it forward through reconciliation. "We'd love to do the debt limit. That doesn't magically create the votes to get the debt limit done," said one frustrated senior White House official. THE FUTURE OF STUDENT LOANS: Education Department Undersecretary JAMES KVAAL said in a court filing that "there could be an historically large increase," in student loan default rates if the president's student loan relief program gets blocked, CNBC's ANNIE NOVA reports. The program has been put on pause after a federal judge in Texas ruled it to be illegal. Since then, a federal appeals court also blocked the program. WHAT COULD GO WRONG?: A report from the Treasury Department found that fintechs — tech companies involved in banking — have so far avoided a certain level of oversight for safety, soundness and consumer protection, our SAM SUTTON reports for Pro subscribers . "While non-bank firms' entrance into core consumer finance markets has increased competition and innovation, it has not come without additional risks to consumer protection and market integrity," Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN said in a statement. ALSO: Catch up on Poland, Russia, Ukraine with POLITICO's National Security Daily .   GO INSIDE THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO is featuring a special edition of our "Future Pulse" newsletter at the 2022 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit from Dec. 6 to 8. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of health industry leaders and innovators solving the biggest global health issues to ensure a healthier, more resilient future for all. SUBSCRIBE TODAY TO RECEIVE EXCLUSIVE COVERAGE .     What We're Reading Want to Get Married at the White House? It Helps if Grandpa Is the President (WSJ's Catherine Lucey) Trump Is Running in 2024. The White House Has a Plan. (NYT's Michael D. Shear) The Oppo Book LILY ADAMS, the Treasury Department's assistant secretary for public affairs, and her husband, COREY CIORCIARI, adopted a wheaten terrier together and named it HARPER, after HARPER LEE who wrote "To Kill a Mockingbird," and "Go Set a Watchman." One caveat, however. "It's a boy," Adams told Brandeis Magazine in 2021 , a publication affiliated with the Massachusetts university. "But I figured no one cares." We care. POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER ABRAHAM LINCOLN was born in Hardin County, Kentucky on Feb. 12, 1809. The state was not part of the original 13 colonies which were Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Hampshire, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia. A CALL OUT — Thanks to Jacob for this question! Do you think you have a harder one? Send us your best one about the presidents with a citation and we may feature it. Edited by Eun Kyung Kim and Sam Stein.   Follow us on Twitter Alex Thompson @AlexThomp Eli Stokols @EliStokols Allie Bice @alliebice   Follow us

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