CLIMATE CORNER The world's climate glitterati are heading to Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, for the annual United Nations climate conference. And they're not ready to agree on any fundamental reset that might save the planet. The COP27 LEADERS SPEAKING LIST: National leaders will speak from the afternoon of Nov. 7 local time, and through Nov. 8. ( See from Page 13 at this link ). Among the 70 or so leaders who will speak, the biggest names are Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz, Emmanuel Macron, Cyril Ramaphosa and Mohanmed Bin Salman. Former U.K. PM Boris Johnson will also be there. The number of heads of states is well down from the 120 leaders who attended the 2021 conference in Glasgow . THE BAD NEWS: Governments across the world are undermining the Paris Agreement to limit climate change, and nearly all large companies with net zero emissions commitments have failed to back those pledges with plans matching their words. Around 170 countries have refused to update their 2030 climate targets, as they promised to do in 2022, leading the the United Nations' Environment Programme to say there is " no credible pathway " to getting back on course to limiting global warming to the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) ceiling set out in the Paris Agreement. It's getting to the point where the COP system may not be a sufficient vehicle for coping with the climate threat. Action to address scientific reality may need to happen elsewhere: the G-20 (which doesn't appear ready to take up the mantle), bilateral forums like U.S.-China dialogues (currently paused) or left to the hands of innovators (most likely). BANK AND C-SUITE NUMBERS DON'T ADD UP Corporate and banking climate pledges appear to be as weak as government promises. Banks say that more than $130 trillion of private capital is committed to transforming the economy for net zero. But Rockefeller Foundation and Boston Consulting Group have calculated that just 16 percent of climate-finance needs are currently being met . While around 700 of the world's largest companies now have net-zero emissions targets set for 2040 or 2050, according to a new report from Accenture : "93 percent of companies with net zero commitments will miss their targets," based on their current trajectories. Reality check: How is it that $130 trillion dollars is keeping just one country ( The Gambia, per Climate Action Tracker ) and 7 percent of companies on track for net zero? Something is wrong with these numbers. Email your thoughts to: rheath@politico.com Parallel universe: You don't have to be a climate scientist or investment banker to realize the world's most climate vulnerable countries, often among the poorest, could address their climate concerns with less than $130 trillion. In fact, all they asked for was $100 billion. Rich countries promised that and then failed to deliver large chunks of the money. Vulnerable countries are now upping the ante by pursuing claims for climate reparations — compensation for facing climate havoc they did not create. It may be just, and it's definitely optimistic. It's also not going to happen at the COP27 conference. THE GOOD NEWS — EARTHSHOT PRIZE: If the COP27 scene feels depressing, here's something to cheer you up. The Earthshot Prize, a $1 million global environmental prize, founded by Prince William, announced 15 groundbreaking finalists this morning . The underlying message of the prize, the Prince said via an emailed statement, is that "seemingly impossible goals are within reach," inspired by former President John F. Kennedy's Moonshot, which catalyzed a generation of new technology and technologists in addition to getting humans to the moon. A 10-month selection process culled more than 1,000 nominations down to the 15 finalists. One of them is LanzaTech , an American company with former White House deputy chief of staff Jim Messina on the board. LanzaTech recycles carbon: Rather than capturing and then storing carbon, the company instead converts the captured carbon into fuels and chemicals, recycling the emissions before they can be released into the air. Five winners will be announced by the Prince and Princess of Wales in Boston on Dec. 2. INTERVIEW — BELGIAN DEPUTY PM, VINCENT VAN QUICKENBORNE Vincent Van Quickenborne knows a thing or two about the dangers of organized crime — narco terrorists tried to kidnap him in September — which helps to explain his weeklong visit to Washington, D.C., and New York City to beef up cooperation between the U.S. and Belgium on fighting terrorism and organized crime. Van Quickenborne spoke to Global Insider at a reception with Attorney General Merrick Garland at the Belgian ambassador's residence. What's changed about the threats to Belgium: "The underworld is really now attacking and destabilizing democratic society," he said, citing ports as a weak point in national security which Belgium is working to address via a six-country anti-narcotic coalition to shut the problem down. He's also worried about right wing extremism: "It's on the rise in the United States, also on the rise in our country. The collectors of grievances, a blended ideology: These are people that are lone actors and very difficult to trace." Port security: Belgium is also rolling out new digital communications platforms shared by major ports such as Antwerp and Rotterdam, a new dedicated port prosecutor, extra background checks on prospective port workers and bans on ex-criminals working in ports, Van Quickenborne said. Emirati safe haven: "The Emirates have been a safe haven, a place where drug lords are hiding away from our justice system. We know that because they're on Instagram. So we have two new treaties with them that entered into force this week," he said. Where does Islamist terror rank among threats today? Those threats dominated Belgium's security landscape before and after the 2016 Brussels attacks, which left 35 dead and more than 300 injured, and saw Belgian authorities heavily criticized for their handling of the terror threat. Van Quickenborne said he's still tracking around 400 domestic and foreign terrorist fighters, but noted that there are new systems for dealing with the threat: "We had islands of information before and now we have cooperation. Zero risk doesn't exist, but today we're more robust. And the structures that we've set up for terrorism: we can use them now for organized crime." He's proud that Belgium has gone from mostly needing security help to offering it. "We discovered a plot against former President Bush in Dallas ," he noted. CHINA CORNER REGRETS, THEY HAVE A FEW: Biden froze out China's ambassador — and now Qin Gang is a politburo member, our own Phelim Kine reported. Xi's new yes men create new risks for Taiwan. Josh Rogin breaks it down here . EUROPE CORNER MELLOW MELONI MEETS BRUSSELS: Italy's new far-right prime minister played nice on her first trip to Brussels Thursday. The question is how long the Euroskeptic's truce with Brussels will last, write POLITICO's Hannah Roberts, Jacopo Barigazzi and Suzanne Lynch . Meloni claimed to have found "ears that were willing to listen," in her "frank and positive" talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and at lunch at the Italian ambassador's residence with EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni — a former Italian prime minister himself. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola invited Meloni to address the Parliament and announced the pair were "totally aligned on Ukraine." Reality check: Meloni will not limit herself to Ukraine platitudes when she delivers that address to the European Parliament. UNITED STATES MIDTERMS STOP THE STEAL 2.0: Election conspiracy and threats of violence are jumping from the online world to the real world, and the hotspots include Arizona and Michigan. POLITICO's Mark Scott conducted a three-month investigation into this conspiracy conveyor belt and looks at what risks that poses for American democracy, and globally, given that America is a test-bed for many campaign tactics later seen in other elections. BY THE NUMBERS: Heading into the midterm elections Morning Consult's Foreign Policy Tracker finds: — Democrats and Republicans have a shared (but limited) interest in preventing a global economic crisis. Roughly one-third of all U.S. voters rank preventing a global economic crisis among their top five concerns. — Republican voters more isolationist: Democrats are split three ways equally between those who support greater isolationism, those who support the status quo and those who don't know. Republicans favor more isolationism — hinting at why Kevin McCarthy made comments wavering on Ukraine funding. — Parties split on climate change: The trend is no surprise, but the split is massive. Fifty-four percent of Democrats rank climate change among their top five concerns, while only 17 percent of Republicans do.
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