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Cross-examining the lab-leak theorists

The ideas and innovators shaping health care
Nov 04, 2022 View in browser
 
Future Pulse

By Carmen Paun , Shawn Zeller , Ruth Reader , Ben Leonard and Grace Scullion

WEEKEND READ

Security personnel gather near the entrance of the Wuhan Institute of Virology during a visit by the World Health Organization team in Wuhan in China's Hubei province on Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2021.

The Chinese government has limited the ability of international researchers to investigate the Covid-19 pandemic's origins. | (Ng Han Guan/AP Photo)

Vanity Fair and ProPublica's report last week that the Wuhan Institute of Virology was coping with an unspecified emergency around the time the coronavirus emerged has renewed debate among Americans about the lab-leak theory of the pandemic.

The Vanity Fair and ProPublica story paints a picture of a mysterious biosafety incident at the lab shortly before people started becoming infected with the new virus.

Citing translations by Toy Reid, a State Department political officer covering China who reviewed documents from the Wuhan Institute of Virology's website, the article says Chinese officials were grappling with "an acute safety emergency" the month before a coronavirus outbreak began in Wuhan.

That suggests the virus may have come from a lab accident, in line with the conclusion drawn by Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee Republicans, who provided the documents to the journalists.

The Wall Street Journal has previously reported that U.S. intelligence operatives believe three workers at the virology institute sought hospital care around the time Reid said the emergency occurred.

Vanity Fair investigative reporter Katherine Eban and ProPublica computational journalist Jeff Kao said they checked Reid's translations with experts in Chinese Communist Party communications. But Reid made mistakes, native speakers have since pointed out, according to an L.A. Times business columnist and Semafor media reporter, casting doubt on the story.

Eban wrote a Vanity Fair article published in June 2021 that cited a prior essay in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists making the case for the lab leak theory by former New York Times science writer Nicholas Wade. Eban's piece helped give the lab-leak theory legitimacy and suggested the U.S. was covering up the leak because it had previously paid for "gain of function" research that sought to make viruses more dangerous to learn to control them.

Ambiguous findings: The debate about whether the coronavirus came from nature or a lab is almost as old as the pandemic itself.

A March 2021 report by public health experts that the World Health Organization commissioned to look into the disease's origin leaned heavily on the likelihood of a natural spillover and dismissed the possibility of a lab leak.

But the report was mired in controversy because Chinese authorities were heavily involved in drafting it. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at the time that a lab leak wasn't beyond the realm of possibility.

A U.S. intelligence report late last year said the intelligence community was split on how the virus originated and more evidence was needed to make a definitive assessment.

The case for a natural origin: But two reviews of scientific findings, published last year and last month, make the case for a natural virus spillover.

In one self-published review, 21 virologists pointed to reports showing that markets in Wuhan sold live animals , such as palm civets and raccoon dogs, that could carry the virus, The New York Times reported.

The second review, published in the journal Science, noted that peer-reviewed evidence shows that the virus moved from bats to other wild animals and then to people trading those animals, causing an outbreak at a seafood market in Wuhan.

 

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This is where we explore the ideas and innovators shaping health care. 

Plenty of news outlets saw the uptick in Covid cases in Europe earlier this fall as evidence of another building winter wave. That may yet happen, but it's too early to tell, given that the WHO says cases are now dropping across the pond, down 17 percent week over week.

Share news, tips and feedback with Ben Leonard at bleonard@politico.com, Ruth Reader at rreader@politico.com, Carmen Paun at cpaun@politico.com or Grace Scullion at gscullion@politico.com. 

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Today on our Pulse Check podcast, Ben talks with Megan Messerly about the new report from Senate Cybersecurity Caucus co-founder Mark Warner (D-Va.), which asks Congress to consider getting the Department of Health and Human Services to set minimum security standards for the health industry. Plus, Katherine Ellen Foley on what you should know from Pfizer's and Moderna's earnings calls.

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TWEET STORM

Rebound cases of Covid-19 following use of the antiviral drug Paxlovid no longer seem as rare as federal health experts once said they were.

That was the conclusion many Twitterati drew from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's announcement Monday that its director, Rochelle Walensky, had rebounded. Walensky first tested positive for Covid on Oct. 22, began a round of Paxlovid, tested negative, then experienced symptoms again and tested positive on Oct. 30.

Her rebound case follows similar double bouts with the disease for President Joe Biden, First Lady Jill Biden and White House Chief Medical Adviser Anthony Fauci.

All but Fauci's case came after Ashish Jha, the White House Covid-19 response coordinator, said 5 to 8 percent of people experienced a rebound.

Many now doubt that estimate.

Walid Gellad tweet on Paxlovid

Twitter

Fiegl-Ding tweet on Paxlovid

Twitter

FDA Commissioner Robert Califf took to Twitter to warn that Paxlovid's ability to prevent severe disease and death is more important than its rebound effect.

Robert Califf tweet on Paxlovid

Twitter

That benefit remains, Califf tweeted.

Robert Califf 2nd tweet on Paxlovid

Twitter

But Twitterati found fault in that, too, noting the FDA approved Paxlovid in December 2021 after its maker, Pfizer, showed the drug helped unvaccinated people who had not previously contracted Covid. Pfizer did not initially study its effects in those who had received coronavirus vaccines.

The company later made a case that its regimen also helps vaccinated people, but the data was ambiguous. And many Tweeters don't buy it.

Farzaneh-Far tweet on Paxlovid

Twitter

 

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