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'Deeply troubled': Lawmakers challenge Fed's inflation war

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Nov 07, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Victoria Guida and Kate Davidson

Editor's note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 5:15 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories.  Act on the news with POLITICO Pro .

We've crossed a political threshold: After months of relative silence, lawmakers are increasingly speaking out about Federal Reserve actions, something that only a few politicians like Sen. Elizabeth Warren had been willing to do.

A burst of recent letters from Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) and a coalition of other Democrats was punctuated on Friday by House Financial Services Chair Maxine Waters , who called on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to slow down the pace of raising borrowing costs.

"I am deeply troubled by the Federal Reserve's … rapid series of super-sized interest rate hikes, which may inflict unnecessary pain on millions of individuals and families while sending the economy into a devastating recession," Waters wrote. "Although you indicated that there may be smaller rate increases to come, it is essential that the Fed take into consideration the consequences of previous and future rate hikes."

Your guest MM host has written about mounting anxiety that the Fed has continued to raise rates at this speed . That means the central bank can expect more vocal critiques from politicians, even if the Fed does begin to scale back the size of the hikes. Republicans have been more muted in their criticism of the Fed, preferring to focus their inflation blame on President Joe Biden. But last week brought signals that even some GOP voices could get louder.

Sen. Pat Toomey (Pa.), the top Republican on the Banking Committee, wrote to Powell on Thursday that the central bank should resist buying U.S. government debt if trading conditions continue to deteriorate in that market. He cited press reports that the Fed has asked Treasury market participants whether more serious problems could crop up, requiring the Fed to step in. He also pointed to the Bank of England's recent moves to shore up its own sovereign debt market.

"I strongly urge you to resist such intervention, for at least two reasons. First, such action would undermine the Fed's principal objective of fighting inflation, which continues to pose significant challenges for the U.S. economy," Toomey said. "Second, it would repeat some of the mistakes of quantitative easing, such as obscuring the true cost and consequences of our mounting national debt."

If you'll permit us a slight digression, there's a lot of noise about the Treasury market right now, but your host has spent a lot of time talking with investors, and it doesn't seem like the place where the U.S. government gets its financing is in imminent danger. But the last few years have brought unexpected shocks, and the concern is that any fragility could be disastrous if we get another jolt.

Toomey called on the Fed to "pursue durable reforms that would enable the Treasury market to function smoothly during times of stress," which is also a common refrain from investors and government officials. It's worth noting that the Fed doesn't seem overly concerned about a near-term breakdown in the market, though officials are definitely keeping an eye on it .

But back to our original point: Toomey's letter, like Waters', is a sign that Powell's honeymoon with Congress is partially over (though he's still widely liked by lawmakers), and every step the central bank takes from here will be more closely scrutinized. For an institution whose effectiveness rests on its credibility with investors, the public and lawmakers, that matters.

IT'S MONDAY — Have a tip, story idea or feedback to share? Let us know: kdavidson@politico.com and ssutton@politico.com .

 

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Driving the Day

Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin speaks about inflation at 6 p.m. … New York Fed's John Williams speaks at a Swiss National Bank event Wednesday … Barkin speaks on the economic outlook Wednesday … Fed Governor Chris Waller speaks about central bank digital currencies Thursday … CPI data released Thursday …

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday … Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester, Dallas Fed's Laurie Logan, Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker, Kansas City Fed's Esther George and Williams are all scheduled to speak at separate events Friday.

SEC AT SCOTUS — The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments today in a case that could limit the power of SEC administrative law judges. At issue is whether a federal court has jurisdiction to hear a case in which a defendant challenges an ongoing SEC administrative proceeding on the grounds that the agency's administrative judges hold unconstitutional positions because they aren't removable at will by the president.

MIDTERM SCRAMBLE — Our David Siders: "The midterm campaign is closing with a potent reminder of the Joe Biden-Donald Trump rematch that may await in 2024. During a Saturday visit to Pennsylvania, the president framed the midterms in familiar terms, vowing that 'democracy is literally on the ballot.' At the same time, across the same state, Trump was repeating his lie that the 2020 election was rigged, falsely claiming to a Pennsylvania crowd that he carried the state 'twice.'"

HOUSING HELP — Our Katy O'Donnell: "Lobbyists are scrambling to get help from Washington to goose the housing market as demand tanks in response to rising interest rates and high prices.

"Groups representing builders, realtors and lenders are urging Congress and the White House to intervene to spur more home construction and boost affordability. It's an increasingly urgent plea, with mortgage demand down more than 40 percent from a year ago and rates topping 7 percent for the first time in two decades."

INFRASTRUCTURE LOBBYING — Our Alex Daugherty and John Hendel: "The $1.2 trillion infrastructure law has kicked off a lobbying scramble by states, municipalities and industries seeking a slice of one of Washington's biggest cash bonanzas in a generation ."

COP27 UNDER WAY — Bloomberg's John Ainger, Salma El Wardany and Jennifer Dlouhy: "UN climate talks began in Egypt with a breakthrough agreement to discuss who pays for damages caused by increasingly extreme weather events -- an issue that had exposed splits between rich and poor nations."

Our Zack Colman and Karl Mathiesen report the U.S. is suddenly open to making rich nations pay reparations to countries suffering the ravages of climate change — but only if China ponies up, too.

Regulatory Corner

CFPB TARGETING WELLS — Bloomberg's Hannah Levitt and Katanga Johnson: "Wells Fargo & Co. is under pressure from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to pay more than $1 billion to settle a series of investigations into mistreatment of customers, a deal that would shatter the agency's previous record -- also with Wells Fargo."

Fed File

IT'S CONFUSING — WaPo's Rachel Siegel: "When the Federal Reserve raised interest rates yet again this week, the central bank's case for how it would tackle inflation without causing a recession boiled down to: It's unclear. What are the odds of avoiding a downturn? 'Hard to say,' conceded Chair Jerome H. Powell. How high will interest rates go? 'Very uncertain.'"

STABILITY RISKS — Our Victoria Guida: "The Federal Reserve on Friday cited its own fight against inflation as one of the biggest near-term risks to the stability of the financial system , particularly if interest rates go higher than investors expect."

Also from Victoria: The Fed on Friday proposed publishing a list of all the financial institutions that have deposit accounts at the central bank, an apparent response to increased pressure to be more transparent about who gets access to its payment rails.

Economy

NEW INFLATION TOOL? — From Katy again: "A coalition of tenant organizers and housing lawyers is pushing the White House to issue an executive order that would limit rent increases for millions of homes with mortgages backed by the federal government, framing it as a new tool to fight inflation."

LAYOFF TALK — Our Ben White: "It's not just Elon Musk threatening to lay off large swaths of Twitter's staff . Dozens of executives on quarterly earnings calls monitored by POLITICO in recent weeks have discussed the topic, many saying that while it's too soon to halt hiring, they are closely watching consumer demand."

Crypto

DIGITAL DOLLAR — Victoria again: "The Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Friday announced that it successfully completed an experiment showing that it is feasible to use a central bank digital currency on distributed ledger technology to quickly settle foreign exchange transactions."

CRYPTO TAX DUTIES DELAYED — Our Bjarke Smith-Meyer: "The European Commission had planned to unveil new rules that'll require crypto exchanges and companies to identify people who hold assets on their platforms on November 16. That's not happening anymore. The new bill, an update to the EU's directive on administrative cooperation (DAC), will instead emerge in December or even January. Commission officials need more time to tinker with the final draft to ensure it lines up perfectly with the EU's market in crypto assets rulebook (MiCA), which legislators agreed early this year."

 

DON'T MISS A THING FROM THE MILKEN INSTITUTE'S MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA SUMMIT: POLITICO is partnering with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Digital Future Daily" newsletter with insider reporting and insights from the Milken Institute's Middle East and Africa Summit happening November 17-18. Hundreds of global leaders will convene, highlighting the important role connection plays in advancing global well-being. Whether you're in-person at the event or following online, sign up for this special edition newsletter for daily coverage of the event. SUBSCRIBE TODAY .

 
 
Fly Around

US oil producers have raked in more than $200bn in profits since Russia's invasion of Ukraine as they cash in on a period of geopolitical turmoil that has shaken up the global energy market and sent prices soaring. — FT's Myles McCormick

The supply of cash that fuels Wall Street deals is evaporating and the slowdown likely is here to stay, bankers, investors and corporate lawyers say. — WSJ's Matt Wirz

Twitter appeared to be launching an overhaul of its "blue check" system for verifying users on Saturday, with a message on Apple's app store offering a new $7.99 subscription to "Twitter Blue," including an automatic blue checkmark for subscribers' accounts. — Our Kierra Frazier

 

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Kate Davidson @KateDAvidson

Aubree Eliza Weaver @aubreeeweaver

Ben White @morningmoneyben

Victoria Guida @vtg2

Katy O'Donnell @katyodonnell_

Zachary Warmbrodt @Zachary

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