'Definitely not a Republican wave'

Presented by National Retail Federation: A play-by-play preview of the day's congressional news

Nov 09, 2022 View in browser   By Katherine Tully-McManus Presented by National Retail Federation Aren't waves (or tides) usually stronger during a full moon? That wasn't the case for Republicans on Tuesday night. "Definitely not a Republican wave, that's for darn sure," Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said on NBC News on Tuesday night. PARTY FIZZLE — The disappointment was palpable at GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) would-be victory party that dragged on into the predawn hours with winnowing attendance before McCarthy took the stage for a brief speech. He brought optimism to the stage, but his promises were not delivered by dawn (at least for your early-rising Huddle host): "When you wake up tomorrow, we will be in the majority and Nancy Pelosi will be in the minority," McCarthy said to a ballroom. He also announced victory in two races that had not yet been called (and still haven't this morning). He touted the unconfirmed losses of Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), who would be the first Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair to be ousted in 40 years, and that Republican candidate Anthony D'Espocito had won his seat in New York. The Spotify playlist for the event, spotted by a helpful tipster in the room, was titled "McCarthey," an incorrect spelling of the GOP leader's name. TO EACH THEIR OWN (CAUCUS) — Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) likes the look of a slim House majority. The dynamics could suit frequent outliers from the GOP conference like himself. "I mean, look at what Joe Manchin has done in the Senate as the one deciding vote, right?" he told our Olivia Beavers and Hailey Fuchs at McCarthy's election night party. "I would love for the Massie caucus to be relevant." SENATE STATE-OF-PLAY — Control of the Senate still hangs in the balance this morning. In a big victory for Democrats, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman defeated Republican candidate Mehmet Oz, flipping the seat currently held by retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey into Democratic hands. Democrats also delivered wins for Sens. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) and Michael Bennet (D-Colo.). Democrats' hopes of another flip, in Ohio, were dashed by the victory of Republican J.D. Vance over Rep. Tim Ryan. The ideological split between Vance and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) promises to deliver one of the widest ideological splits in the chamber. Republicans held their seats in Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. If GOP Sen. Ron Johnson holds Wisconsin – he's ahead by 1.2 percent with 99 percent of the vote counted – that means to control the Senate , Republicans need to win two of three in Arizona , Nevada and Georgia . HOUSE HOPEFULS — Republicans are on track to control the House, though official results are not yet locked in. But Republicans had anticipated a swift and decisive victory, with a comfy margin. Neither materialized. Republicans did get a major pickup when GOP candidate Jen Kiggans defeated Democratic incumbent Rep. Elaine Luria in Virginia Beach. But Dems also fended off strong challenges in some key races: Reps. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) , Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) and Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio ) will all be headed back to Washington for another term. Democrats held onto a Rhode Island district the GOP had made a serious play to flip. A GOP majority remains in sight, but hopes of a blowout or red wave have nearly evaporated. Sarah and Ally have the House outlook: Republican hopes of a House romp dim, though majority remains in sight POLITICO is still tracking all the results. Follow along on our election dashboard .   A message from National Retail Federation: The INFORM Consumers Act is a bipartisan solution to stop organized retail crime. It's supported by retailers, law enforcement organizations and consumer advocates alike. It's time for Congress to pass the INFORM Consumers Act — this year — and help keep our communities safe. Learn more here.   GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, November 9, where when we know, you'll know . DO NOT USE AFTER 11.20.22 - Scenes at the Maricopa County Election Center where workers are tabulating early voting ballots in Phoenix, Ariz. on Nov. 7, 2022. | David Butow for POLITICO WHAT WE'RE WATCHING — The uncalled races your Huddle host will be glued to until there's a result: AZ-SEN: Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) leads GOP Blake Masters 51.9%-45.9% GA-SEN: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) leads Herschel Walker 49.4%-48.5%. Stay tuned for a Dec. 6 runoff in this race, which is looking likely.  NV-SEN: Republican Adam Lazalt leads Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto 49.9%-47.2%  Surprise must-watch: CO-03: Democrat Adam Frisch leads Rep. Lauren Boebert 50.6%-49.4% in a district that got more red, not less, in redistricting.   NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID .     KNOWN MILESTONES — The known unknowns are still high, but among the races that have been decided, there are some firsts, some surprises and some interesting nuggets. A first for Vermont: Vermont is sending its first ever woman to the House. Democrat Becca Balint (D-Vt.) won the seat vacated by Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), who ran for and had the juice to win the Senate seat that's been held by Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) since 1974. Balint is also the first openly gay person elected to Congress from the Green Mountain State. A woman for Alabama:  Republican Katie Britt is the first woman elected to the Senate in Alabama . She won the seat of her former boss, retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.). Sit down, Mr. Smith: Gen Z is coming to Washington. Twenty five year-old community organizer Maxwell Frost won his election for the Orlando-based 10th Congressional District . That makes him the first Gen Z member of Congress. He defeated Republican Calvin Wimbish, a retired 72-year-old Army Green Beret. The other Gen Z contender for the House, Republican Karoline Leavitt, lost her contest in NH-01 . Like father, like son: How many Roberts Menendez can one Congress hold? We're about to find out . Robert J. Menendez, the son of New Jersey's senior senator Bob Menendez, won Tuesday in New Jersey's 8th Congressional District, winning the House seat once occupied by his father. A woman from the Keystone State: Summer Lee is the first Black woman elected to Congress in Pennsylvania .   A message from National Retail Federation:   HUDDLE HOTDISH BEHIND THE SCENES OF TRUE VOTER FRAUD — Remember the Fat Bear Week voting scandal? Slack messages released by the National Park Service under the Freedom of Information Act offer a behind-the-scenes look at how the contest organizers at NPS and Alaska's Katmai National Park & Preserve detected and responded to a late surge in the polls that didn't seem plausible. "Did someone hack because holly is winning. … And that wasn't possible earlier," one user wrote in Slack. Another person downloaded details about the votes and told colleagues, "It does look like there's someone who spammed a lot of garbage emails from the same IP address."  "9,272 fraud votes," said one Slack user. "Looks like he stopped after his girl was showing in the lead." Robin Bravender and Kevin Bogardus from E&E News dug into the FOIA'd communications and piece together the scramble to secure the integrity of the Fat Bear Week elections . QUICK LINKS Slavery rejected in some, not all, states where on ballot , from Aaron Morrison at The Associated Press TRANSITIONS  Plenty of people are on the job hunt. Let us know where you land. TODAY IN CONGRESS The House and Senate are out.   DON'T MISS POLITICO'S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, "At a Crossroads: America's Defense Strategy" on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America's national security. REGISTER HERE .     AROUND THE HILL A mix of relief and despair, depending on who your boss is. TRIVIA TUESDAY'S WINNER: Diana Deem correctly answered that President Zachary Taylor never once voted prior to his electoral victory. TODAY'S QUESTION from: Since 1933 (when the 20th Amendment changed the dates of congressional terms) how many lame-duck sessions has Congress held? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to ktm@politico.com. GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning. Follow Katherine on Twitter @ktullymcmanus   A message from National Retail Federation: According to NRF's National Retail Security Survey, retailers reported an average 26.5% increase in organized retail crime last year alone. Retailers, consumer advocates and law enforcement organizations agree: Congress should pass the INFORM Consumers Act this year. This bipartisan bill will make it tougher for criminals to sell stolen goods online, while ensuring honest small businesses can use ecommerce to reach customers. Learn more here.     Follow us

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