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Dem forecast of GOP majority: “Apocalyptic”

A play-by-play preview of the day's congressional news
Nov 01, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Huddle

By Katherine Tully-McManus

With reporting from Burgess Everett and Olivia Beavers

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 21: Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) speaks to reporters outside of the Senate Chambers of the U.S. Capitol on June 21, 2022 in Washington, DC. The bipartisan group of senators working on gun reform legislation returned to DC today after the long weekend and reported that progress is being made in the negotiations, saying text and action on the Senate floor for the legislation is imminent. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) speaks to reporters outside of the Senate Chamber (Photo by Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images

DIRE DEM FORECAST — "Debt default, shutdown, constant impeachments." That's how Sen. Chris Murphy is describing a House GOP takeover.

"There will be no governing in the House if Republicans take over. I'm pretty apocalyptic about what the House will look like if Marjorie Taylor Green is in charge," Murphy (D-Conn.) told reporters at the Capitol on Monday. "It's an absolute nightmare if Republicans win. It will be potentially cataclysmic."

There's no denying that the House GOP is likely to get more conservative starting in January. But in the face of their party's potential governing challenges next year, Republicans are describing their agenda in placid terms. House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) said Republicans will be looking at "making Congress work again." He told Olivia that "We need to get back to living within our means. We need to get back to addressing problems that shouldn't be as complicated as they are today, but with Congress not functioning, it really breaks down the ability of Washington to govern."

But division and dysfunction could be nearly unavoidable on Capitol Hill in the new Congress – it wasn't exactly smooth sailing for Democratic priorities over the last two years, after all. If Republicans take the House or Senate, the tough reality of a divided government is sure to compound it. Getting Republicans to row together is a major challenge that Republican leaders Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) and Mitch McConnell (Ky.) will have to navigate, given the real divides between Republicans in each chamber. House Republicans have broken with Senate Republicans on major bills carefully brokered with GOP senators' input to squeeze through the evenly split Senate, including the bipartisan infrastructure package and bipartisan gun safety bills. It may be trite at this point, but margins will tell us a lot after Election Day.

 

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GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, Nov. 1, where your host will accept leftover Halloween candy to keep a sugar buzz going until Election Day.

FIRST IN HUDDLE: BARNES POLL — Mandela Barnes' team in Wisconsin is touting a poll conducted by Clarity Campaign that has the Democrat leading Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) by 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent, with 6 percent undecided. Barnes' lead in the poll widens when looking only at independents, which give him a 17 points lead over Johnson. The margin of error on the poll, conducted between Oct. 27 and 31 is plus-or-minus 3.3 percentage points.

MEADOWS LAWSUIT TOSSED — But it doesn't mean former chief of staff to President Donald Trump will testify. U.S. District Court Judge Carl Nichols threw out Meadows' lawsuit over subpoenas from the House's Jan. 6 select committee, underscoring the power of the Constitution's "speech or debate" clause, which bars lawsuits against lawmakers for anything associated with their legislative work.

"The record makes clear that the challenged subpoenas are protected legislative acts," Nichols wrote in the decision.

Meadows is expected to appeal, which effectively delays any testimony he would give to the panel beyond the end of this Congress and its jurisdiction. Kyle has more on Meadows suit .

PELOSI ATTACK SPURS REVIEW — The attack on Paul Pelosi has lawmakers talking about what threats they and their families face, and what a rethinking of member protection could look like as political violence is on the rise.

"My sense is there is still not an appetite to have full security details for every member of Congress," Murphy said on Monday. "We continue to increase funding for security details so that anybody that has an active threat has security. And it may be that we should have a lower bar for what kind of threat would mandate at least a temporary full time detail."

Rank and file lawmakers don't have the full time Capitol Police security details that top congressional leaders and those in the presidential line of succession do. Murphy raised the possibility of extending those protections to family.

On repeat: Murphy has been thinking about how to balance member safety with freedom of movement, access to the public and budget priorities for years. He sits on the spending subcommittee that oversees legislative branch spending. Your Huddle host talked to Murphy in 2017 shortly after the shooting at the GOP baseball practice where a gunman opened fire and wounded five people, including Scalise, whose security details exchanged fire with the shooter. Murphy said it would be "foolish" for members and Capitol Police to not try to learn lessons and make some changes in response to that event.

There was new funding poured into allowing members to install some security measures at their district offices and in more recent years, at their primary residences.

After-action: Capitol Police are reviewing the incident at Pelosi's home and the protective services division, which runs those round-the-clock details assigned to Congressional leaders. The review will also include the Capitol Police's command center, which was monitoring the security camera feed from Pelosi's home, according to a person familiar.

More from Burgess and Andrew on what's ahead for member security .

ANTISEMITISM ON THE TRAIL — Jewish leaders are raising alarms about the rise of antisemitism and normalization of bigoted comments from candidates, family and supporters of Republican candidates for office. Antisemitic statements have seeped into the discourse in key battleground races including Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Jewish leaders are calling for loud and clear rejection of antisemitic rhetoric from candidates themselves, reports Hannah Knowles, Colby Itkowitz and Isaac Arnsdorf at The Washington Post .

Meanwhile… Texas' 7th district is rated by POLITICO as solidly Democratic and won't decide the fate of the House, but that hasn't kept bizarre antisemitism from rearing its head there. The GOP nominee in the Houston-area race wrote a novel published in 2020 that imagines Anne Frank's final days in Auschwitz and Bergen-Belsen concentration camps … in which he portrays her as embracing Jesus and Christianity .

CULINARY CLOUT IN NEVADA — The Culinary Workers Union 226 in Nevada is a political force unlike almost any other. The New York Times' dining section took note . The workers that power the union and the hospitality sectors of Las Vegas and Reno number more than 60,000 and have knocked more than 750,000 doors this campaign season. The union's diverse membership is one of the keys to its power: More than half are women and 45 percent are immigrants. They have job security and financial stability and health insurance with a local average wage of $26 per hour. And a booster rocket for their political power is a key contract provision: hundreds of workers are able to take paid leaves of absence from their jobs to campaign for candidates the union supports.

WENSTRUP'S NIECE KILLED IN SEOUL — Rep. Brad Wenstrup's (R-Ohio) niece, University of Kentucky student Anne Marie Gieske, was among those killed in a crowd surge in South Korea over the weekend that left at least 150 people dead and dozens more injured. Gieske, a nursing major, was studying abroad and had celebrated her 20th birthday the day before her death.

"Monica and I, and our entire family, are grieving the loss of our niece Anne Marie Gieske. She was a gift from God to our family. We loved her so much," Wenstrup said in a statement Monday. More from the student newspaper, Kentucky Kernel.

 

DON'T MISS POLITICO'S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, "At a Crossroads: America's Defense Strategy" on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America's national security. REGISTER HERE .

 
 

QUICK LINKS 

3 ex-Proud Boys hired as Miami-Dade poll workers. Insurrection indictment costs 1 the job , from Charles Rabin at The Miami Herald

Right-wing 'zombie' papers attack Illinois Democrats ahead of elections , from David Folkenflick at NPR

Zinke's Trump Cabinet days shape Montana race for US House , from Matthew Brown at The AP

TRANSITIONS 

David Bader is now press secretary for Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.). He was previously press secretary for Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.).

TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House and Senate are out.

AROUND THE HILL

Just pre-election jitters.

TRIVIA

MONDAY'S WINNER: Peter Roff correctly answered that President Bill Clinton had some photo-op proclamation signings on the South Rim of the Grand Canyon, complete with a desk and chair. The photo cracks me up.

TODAY'S QUESTION from Peter:  Which was the first first family to decorate the White House for Halloween and in what year?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to ktm@politico.com.

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning.

Follow Katherine on Twitter @ktullymcmanus

 

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