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Good girls and the Mette-verse

A newsletter from POLITICO that unpacks essential global news, trends, and decisions.
Nov 02, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Ryan Heath

Follow Ryan on Twitter | Send tips and insights to rheath@politico.com

ELECTIONS EVERYWHERE! 

ISRAEL — NETANYAHU ON TRACK TO RECLAIM POWER: With 85 percent of ballots counted, there is a rightward shift in Israel's electorate that looks likely to return Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to power —he would rely on ultranationalist allies to govern.

Netanyahu's bloc is set to command between 61 and 65 seats of the 120 seats in the Knesset, enough needed to form a government, but hardly the "very big victory" he described to his supporters overnight. Top of mind for voters, per an Israel Democracy Institute poll, was cost of living.

What to expect with the return of Bibi: His hardline stance on Iran will help secure recent anti-Iran alliances in the region, but his hardline approach to Israel's conflict with Palestine worries allies outside the region, including the Biden administration.

DENMARK — WIDESPREAD ADOPTION OF THE METTE-VERSE 

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and her supporting parties are expected to win 87 seats in the 179-seat parliament, after a election Tuesday, called because her governing coalition collapsed.

Frederiksen, in her victory speech , said she will seek to form a centrist government. Her Social Democrat party secured 28 percent of the vote, and 50 seats in parliament.

But it's the back story that will have your jaw on the floor.

MASS MURDER AND THE ELECTION: The election had all the elements of a plot in the Netflix hit series Borgen : a blackmailing parliamentary ally, cute furry animals used as a political cudgel, 14-person debates, new parties and old faces vying for their chance to return as kingmaker.

The main reason for the election: controversy around 17 million slaughtered, poorly buried and ultimately incinerated mink . To put that in context, Denmark has only 4.3 million voters.

The mink were victims of the Copenhagen's Covid policies — which let people roam mask-free through most of the pandemic, but which forced mink mass murder after 12 specimens infected humans with Covid.

In addition to costing the government $2.6 billion in compensation, the cull killed off a generation of breeding mink and Denmark's 40 percent share in the global market role (which was mostly thanks to wealthy Russian and Chinese buyers). Many assumed it would also kill Frederiksen's prime ministership. She proved them wrong.

BRAZIL — BOLSONARO FOLLOWS TRUMP'S POST-ELECTION PLAYBOOK: The loser of Brazil's presidential election, Jair Bolsonaro did not concede in his first post-election public statement. His chief of staff is beginning the transition process , however, following Trump's example.

The West should be careful what it wishes for: Check out president-elect Lula's view of Ukraine . Tldr: President Volodomyr Zelenskyy is weird and should cut a peace deal with Moscow.

INTERVIEW — LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD AND GAYLE SMITH

Global Insider brought together two global policy dynamos — both pioneers who served or have served in Cabinet — to talk about the future of women, and what they've learned and achieved and regretted in their combined seven decades in policy making.

Linda Thomas-Greenfield and Gayle Smith on the future of women in politics: POLITICO 15

POLITICO illustration/Photo by Meiying Wu

Thomas-Greenfield recounts how she "seethes to this day" about an incident, as U.S. ambassador to the U.N., in which a male interlocutor told her, "We thought you were going to be a good girl" — and her wish that she hadn't ignored it.

Smith, now head of the ONE Campaign, and formerly President Barack Obama's USAID administrator and President Joe Biden's global Covid coordinator, thinks the global pandemic response could have been more effective with more women involved. "If we'd had another set of actors in the room when the pandemic was first declared, we could have come out with a different system," she said.

You can read the full transcript , but here are a few of the bits that stood out most to your host:

Madeleine Albright is a shared icon: "I really do feel like I have her sitting on my shoulder, whispering in my ear every single day," said Thomas Greenfield.

On supporting Iranian women: " We can't push them into the streets. They're being courageous. They're being brave, but they're being killed," Thomas-Greenfield said. "And so our support has to be moral support, but it also has to be in the area of accountability: like, how do we hold the morality police accountable?" Including because the Taliban is "watching that very, very closely. And they should be."

Get the Taliban through Indonesia: Thomas-Greenfield praised Jakarta for working with the U.S. in "being extraordinarily proactive in engaging the Taliban on how to address the issues of women in the Quran," creating the foundations for a broader dialogue."

On being the only woman at the table: "Even today, I will walk in a room and look at the table, and there's not a single woman sitting at the table but me," Thomas-Greenfield said.

" I call it out quickly. But what has been surprising to me is how uncomfortable the men are. They do it and they know they should have women in the room. And when you raise it, they're uncomfortable," she said.

Smith said "I see a lot of different behavior in young men … it's not just women walking in the room and asserting themselves: It's men changing. And to be fair, there are a lot that have."

Covid in hindsight: " People growing up all over the world are going to have — as one of their basic facts taught in school — that when there was a global pandemic, wealthy countries had vaccination rates and access that was in the range of 70 percent plus. And poor countries were in the range of 14 to 20 percent," Smith said.

Women lost out: "More women have lost their jobs. More women have suffered on the health care front because attendant health care [systems] broke down and women economically were hurt especially hard, including in low and middle income countries where a lot of women are in the informal sector. So there was no relief, there was no support, there was no backup."

 

DON'T MISS A THING FROM THE MILKEN INSTITUTE'S MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA SUMMIT: POLITICO is partnering with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Digital Future Daily" newsletter with insider reporting and insights from the Milken Institute's Middle East and Africa Summit happening November 17-18. Hundreds of global leaders will convene, highlighting the important role connection plays in advancing global well-being. Whether you're in-person at the event or following online, sign up for this special edition newsletter for daily coverage of the event. SUBSCRIBE TODAY .

 
 
GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

CLIMATE CORNER 

KING CHARLES CAN'T GOT TO COP — SO HE'S BRINGING COP TO HIM: The British monarch is to host a pre-COP27 conference reception at Buckingham Palace on Friday, for 200 business leaders, politicians and climate campaigners, including Biden climate envoy John Kerry.

It's the King's riposte to successive British prime ministers who told him not to travel to Egypt, thus politicizing his attendance, which had previously been non-political. Global Insider can only imagine what he thinks of plans to open Britain's first new deep coal mine in 30 years.

INTERVIEW — BRAD SMITH, MICROSOFT PRESIDENT

Microsoft published a report this morning, outlining a massive sustainability skills gap which, if left unfilled, could prevent the world from meeting its Paris Climate Agreement commitments.

In other words: more people need to know how to implement sustainable solutions in their jobs. Global Insider spoke to Microsoft President Brad Smith about the thinking behind the report.

Why is a "sustainability revolution" needed? Smith compared the challenge to both Covid and the Space Race. "Carbon, like Covid, is in the atmosphere. We have to worry about the problem. But it's going to take a revolution to solve it — one that sweeps through every part of every economy, in every country in the world. It really is all founded on new knowledge and skills. We couldn't build rockets that could get to the moon without spreading the study of physics [first]."

11 years, people! "If we emit another 422 gigatons of carbon we will reach the threshold" of keeping temperature rises under 1.5 degrees Celsius. That gives the world 11 years "at current carbon emission rates," to get solutions in place, meaning "we can't wait for the young people of today to graduate in order to start solving this."

Where and how to deliver a sustainability skills leap: "The nation's 1100 community colleges are sort of our secret weapon."

Who needs to be gaining new sustainability skills?  "Anyone who does work touching on a supply chain will need to focus on carbon accounting … Anybody who builds a product that consists of real goods will need to learn a little bit more about the climate aspects of material sciences. Anybody involved in the construction or operation of facilities. Anyone who works in a kitchen. Anyone who is connected to permitting."

COP27 mood music: "A lot of the short term pressures that are pushing us backward will, in the long term, help us move forward," such as Russia's war in Ukraine pushing Europe to more renewables. As for those bold corporate climate pledges: "People in some cases may have moved faster than their ability to achieve their goals. But they put big stakes in the ground. And it's a little bit like John F. Kennedy in 1961, saying we will go to the moon. No one knew exactly how to do it. But once they said it, they needed to find a way. There's going to be a lot of public scrutiny."

FOOD SECURITY — TAKE MOSCOW'S WORD WITH A GRAIN OF WHEAT: Three more ships left Ukraine ports on Tuesday, on top of 12 ships ( among them a World Food Program vessel) which left port on Monday. Another eight will sail on Thursday .

The result of staring down Moscow's weekend decision to "suspend" a deal brokered by Turkey and the U.N. to reopen Ukraine's massive food exports across the Black Sea: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu called his Türkish counterpart Hulusi Akar to tell him that the grain corridor agreement would "continue in the same way as before."

Iran to Moscow's rescue: Iran will send around 1,000 additional weapons , including surface-to-surface short range ballistic missiles and more attack drones, to Russia, per Western intelligence leaked to CNN.

GLOBETROTTERS

ELON MUSK'S MATH PROBLEM: Twitter's new owner paid $44 billion for the platform and has raised the idea of charging verified users — there are around 300,000 of them — between $8 and $20 monthly to be verified. Never mind that Twitter's top users drive traffic to the platform, or that the verification system helps Twitter by reducing the chances of imposters being taken seriously by users, one thing to note is that the plan wouldn't bring in a significant amount of money.. Even if every user with a verification badge agreed to pay the fee, it would raise only $2.4 million a year at $8 a month, or $6 million a $20 a month. Twitter's "bills" are around $3 billion a year .

HOW TO SAVE NEXUS: The U.S.-Canada trusted traveler program lets frequent travelers cut the line as they visit their neighboring country. But it's time to get real about 80 percent of the users being Canadians, argues Maryscott Greenwood, CEO of the Canadian American Business Council. That's a subsidy to Canada, she said, and one which likely won't last if Ottawa doesn't offer any flexibility about how the program is run. That means changes to how it's staffed and what legal protections U.S. agents have while working on Canadian soil (compared to other customs agents and U.S. government officers). Without changes, she warned, we could see Washington killing the program for good .

I'M A POLITICIAN, GET ME OUT OF HERE: Former U.K. health minister Matt Hancock — who resigned after breaking both Covid rules and ethics rules by having an affair in 2021 with anaide in his office — has now also been suspended as a Conservative MP.

Why? He decided to go on "I'm A Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here," a reality TV show that takes minor celebrities into the Australian outback and jungle and subjects them to humiliating tests. Hancock claims he's doing it to raise money and awareness for people with dyslexia. Previous contestants include Stanley Johnson, father of Boris, and Carol Thatcher, daughter of Margaret, who won the 2005 edition.

Quote of the day: "I'm looking forward to him eating a kangaroo's penis. Quote me. You can quote me on that," Andy Drummond , deputy chairman of the Conservative party in Hancock's district, told the U.K. Press Association.

THE ITALIAN JOB — RESCUING ARDERN STRANDED IN ANTARCTICA: Italy's air force has had to rescue New Zealand's prime minister Jacinda Ardern from Antarctica after her nation's aging aircraft let her down for the second time in a week. She was flown to the icy continent by an American C-17 jet after pilots worried her 50-year old plane would not be able to land, and turned around. Then Ardern's repaired plane broke down on the ice in Antarctica when it came to collect her.

THE NEW LETTUCE? What will happen first: Will we kill the planet, or will this asteroid kill us?

BRAIN FOOD

PODCAST — CHOCOLATE CAN SAVE US: Obsessions: Wild Chocolate is a new podcast from food journalist Rowan Jacobson, who saw the impact of the widespread deforestation — and the way chocolate could reduce future damage — while reporting from the Brazilian Amazon.

INFOGRAPHICS: Amazing insights into the cost to big tech companies of delivering various products and services and how that translates into income and profit flows, from App Economy Insights.

NEWSLETTER: Should the U.S. recognize North Korea as a nuclear state ? POLITICO's National Security Daily walks you through the pros, cons and Biden administration message testing.

Thanks to editor Heidi Vogt, Melissa Merz, and producer Sophie Gardner.

SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: D.C. Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | Paris Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | EU Confidential | D.C. Influence | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Direct | Berlin Bulletin | Living Cities

 

DON'T MISS POLITICO'S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, "At a Crossroads: America's Defense Strategy" on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America's national security. REGISTER HERE .

 
 
 

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