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Lame duck, half baked

Presented by National Retail Federation: A play-by-play preview of the day's congressional news
Nov 11, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Huddle

By Katherine Tully-McManus

Presented by National Retail Federation

With an assist from Sarah Ferris

LAME DUCK, UP IN THE AIR — Congress is bracing for a lame duck session without knowing who will control the new Congress, a level of uncertainty that could complicate Democrats' packed legislative agenda.

In the Senate, what tops the to-do list was expected to be determined by what power Dems would hold onto in the new year. If Senate Democrats know they'll be losing control of the chamber, they are expected to pour floor time into maximizing confirmation of as many of President Joe Biden's nominees as possible. But if they hold the Senate, there's plenty of legislating they hope to get done while they still run the House.

There's the massive year-end spending bill to fund the government, hopes of reforming the process for presidential election certification, and intent to codify same-sex marriage protections. Not to mention Sen. Joe Manchin's (D-W.Va.) energy permitting reform bill.

The 60-vote filibuster threshold for all of that is already a wrench in Democrats' plans, but as Republicans look toward a favorable Senate battleground map in 2024, their motivation to hand Manchin (and any other Dems) a win is waning fast.

Mitch McConnell, everyman: "I'm like all of you. I'm just watching and waiting for when they're gonna finish counting the votes," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said at the Capitol on Thursday. But he knows who is boss, for now: "Schumer will still be the majority leader until the end of the year."

OVER IN THE HOUSE… While House Democrats have been privately bracing for a minority role, Republicans' weak midterm showing is giving Dems a sliver of hope for keeping control of the chamber. There's chatter, as 32 races remain uncalled, that Dems could eke out a win. But it's still a longshot with Republicans still favored to control the chamber next year, but with a stunningly narrow majority.

Summing up the Democratic mood on Thursday, Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) told Sarah: "It's a very narrow window but it's not closed."

"This is the window in which we can get a lot of things done with certainty. Because we still have those two majorities," Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) told Sarah. "We may very well have them in January too, but that's uncertain."

RELATED READS: The path to 218: Why Democrats aren't out of the race for the House yet , from Steve Shepard; Congress paralyzed by unresolved midterm races , from Burgess and Sarah

ORIENTATION, TOGETHER? — The House's New Member Orientation is set to begin on Sunday. House control could still be TBD. That could set the stage for a Modernization Committee fever dream, where new members learn about legislating and collaboration side by side before breaking off for single-party sessions on how to defeat the other.

Candidates in uncalled races are traditionally invited to freshman orientation, so they can learn alongside their potential peers. That group this year could be a hefty caucus of its own. Arriving at orientation not knowing if you'll actually serve in Congress is wild, but with the rest arriving not knowing who will be in the majority, somehow the weird factor evens out.

 

A message from National Retail Federation:

The INFORM Consumers Act is a bipartisan solution to stop organized retail crime. It's supported by retailers, law enforcement organizations and consumer advocates alike. It's time for Congress to pass the INFORM Consumers Act — this year — and help keep our communities safe. Learn more here.

 

GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Friday, Nov. 11. Thanks to all the veterans who work on Capitol Hill (and beyond).

McCONNELL'S PEACH STATE PLAN — McConnell is calling in backup in Georgia to get Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker across the finish line in his December runoff election, asking Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp to activate his strong ground-game operation on behalf of Walker.

"Kemp will transfer his door-knocking, data analytics, phone-banking and micro-targeting program to the Senate Leadership Fund, the McConnell-aligned super PAC that is bolstering Walker. The super PAC will provide the funding for the $2 million-plus effort, which will be run by Kemp's senior advisers and staffed by more than 100 field workers," reports Alex Isenstadt .

The Senate Leadership Fund has never funded a get-out-the-vote effort on the ground before and they've never partnered with a sitting governor's political operation. They poured $230 million into advertising this cycle, but the ground game is new territory

RELATED READ: Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal Constitution says pundits are asking the wrong questions about the Georgia Senate runoff. It's now how Sen. Raphael Warnock got dragged into a runoff with Walker, but how Warnock survived when every other statewide Dem was wiped out? How Warnock became the last Democrat standing in Georgia's top 2022 races

MIAMI, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 06:  U.S. Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) walks on stage before the arrival of former President Donald Trump at a rally for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) at the Miami-Dade Country Fair and Exposition on November 6, 2022 in Miami, Florida. Rubio faces U.S. Rep. Val Demings (D-FL) in his reelection bid in Tuesday's general election.  (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) walks on stage before the arrival of former President Donald Trump at a rally for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) on November 6, 2022 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle) | Getty Images

RICK SCOTT BACKS OFF — Back in February, our friends at Playbook reported that Trump was courting Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) to challenge McConnell for the top GOP job in the Senate. Jonathan Martin reports this morning that Scott was ready to go forward with the challenge, even taping a video announcing his promise to bid for the top leadership spot. That is, until the Senate GOP campaign chief saw the realities the midterms had wrought. On Wednesday morning he decided against the bid, when it was becoming clear that there would be no decisive victory for Republicans and that the Georgia race was heading to a runoff.

McConnell political adviser Josh Holmes is quoted in the story: "If this is true, most of our voters will be very disappointed to learn that while they were focused on winning elections, their campaign chairman was plotting an ill-fated career advancement." Ouch.

Read about the rollercoaster ride of Scott's attempt, cut short on Tuesday .

 

NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID .

 
 

GOP ON THE DEFENSE — If Republicans take control of the House, they are sure to turn their attention to the Pentagon, where they hope to both boost budgets and root out "wokeness" on policies ranging from climate change to abortion to race. Conservatives see efforts to root out extremism and promote diversity in the ranks as distractions from readiness and preparation for war.

But there will also be focus on actual wars, not just culture wars. Republicans are eager to launch investigations into President Joe Biden's handling of the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. And Republicans are divided over ongoing aid to Ukraine as the country continues to fight Russian attacks and faces a brutal winter ahead. Republicans are largely unified, however, on ramping up security and economic pressure on China. Rep. Mike McCaul (R-Texas), the likely next chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, wants to slash a backlog of weapons sales to Taiwan. "You could see from Ukraine, it's far better to get the weapons prior to an invasion than after and then not play catch up," McCaul told POLITICO. Connor O'Brien has more on GOP priorities for the Pentagon over on Pro .

CHUY'S CHICAGO — Rep. Jesus "Chuy" García (D-Ill.) jumped into the Chicago mayoral race Thursday , which came as little surprise to most. He has a long history in Chicago politics and is the best known candidate so far to challenge Mayor Lori Lightfoot.

ZINKE RIDES AGAIN — Ryan Zinke is heading back to Capitol Hill. He previously served Montana's at-large congressional district from 2015 until 2017, when he resigned to become Interior Secretary under Trump. His tenure at Interior was marred by scandal and ended in resignation . He'll be representing Montana's 1st congressional district, which covers the state's western half.

WATCH: These 10 people just made congressional history

These 10 people just made congressional history

Photo illustration by Renee Klahr/POLITICO

 

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HUDDLE HOTDISH

CAPITOL CONFLICT— Republicans have constantly criticized Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) over the Capitol's posture in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, pressing for broader access for the public into the buildings across campus. On Thursday, GOP leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) wrote a stern letter to Capitol leaders , including the House clerk, Capitol Police chief, architect of the Capitol, sergeant-at-arms and others, requesting their plans for a prompt return to pre-pandemic and pre-insurrection status quo.

"Earlier this week, our country voted for new leadership," he wrote, in his request for a meeting with the top officials.

But Pelosi's office said not so fast. Pelosi spokesperson Drew Hammill released a blistering statement, pointing out McCarthy's position against a bill that increased Capitol Police funding.

"Now, after bungling the election, the Minority Leader would rather intimidate the professionals who run the House than get to work on the issues that voters just told us are on their minds," wrote Hammill.

He closed: "And in case he's already forgotten, the Minority Leader is still the Minority Leader – and he shouldn't count his chickens before they hatch."

TRANSITIONS 

Alison MacDonald returns to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's (D-N.H.) team as chief of staff. She was most recently vice president of policy and federal affairs for the Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, but worked for Shaheen from 2009 to 2016. We need more hometown newspaper job announcements like MacDonald's .

Mary Blanche Hankey is now chief of staff for Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), moving up from roles as chief counsel and policy advisor to Tuberville.

Anderson Okoniewski is now operations director for the House Republican Conference. She previously was director of scheduling and operations for Rep. David Kustoff (R-Tenn.).

 

DON'T MISS POLITICO'S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, "At a Crossroads: America's Defense Strategy" on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America's national security. REGISTER HERE .

 
 

TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House and Senate are out.

AROUND THE HILL

Lame duck starts Monday.

TRIVIA

THURSDAY'S WINNER: Loretta Kane correctly answered that George Washington, while president, led troops to suppress the Whisky Rebellion.

TODAY'S QUESTION from Loretta: Who was the first African American woman to hold a cabinet position?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to ktm@politico.com.

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning.

Follow Katherine on Twitter @ktullymcmanus

 

A message from National Retail Federation:

According to NRF's National Retail Security Survey, retailers reported an average 26.5% increase in organized retail crime last year alone. Retailers, consumer advocates and law enforcement organizations agree: Congress should pass the INFORM Consumers Act this year. This bipartisan bill will make it tougher for criminals to sell stolen goods online, while ensuring honest small businesses can use ecommerce to reach customers. Learn more here.

 
 

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