Poland hit. Russia to blame?

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Nov 15, 2022 View in browser   By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg Soldiers of the Polish army installing concertina wire at Poland's border with Russian exclave Kaliningrad on Nov. 14, 2022, in Goldap, Poland. | Paulius Peleckis/Getty Images With help from Lara Seligman, Paul McLeary, Andrew Desiderio, Nahal Toosi and Erin Banco Register for POLITICO's upcoming conference, " At a Crossroads: America's Defense Strategy ," taking place on Nov. 16 in Washington, D.C. Confirmed speakers include HASC Chair Rep. ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.), Army Chief of Staff Gen. JAMES McCONVILLE, Lockheed Martin President and CEO JAMES TAICLET and Raytheon Missiles and Defense President WES KREMER. We look forward to seeing our NatSec Daily family there! Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Reports are swirling that stray Russian rockets or missiles hit inside Poland, killing two Poles . If true, the moment could prove a turning point in the war. The Polish government is currently holding an emergency meeting over a "crisis situation." The Biden administration hasn't confirmed the reports, though Brig. Gen. PATRICK RYDER, the Pentagon spokesperson, reiterated the position that the U.S. will defend every inch of NATO territory — repeating President JOE BIDEN's vow. More information needs to come out before we know how this will affect the war. At first, the suspicion was two Russian missiles went astray and landed inside of Poland, a NATO ally. If that's the case, then it's very unlikely NATO would enact the Article 5 provision that says an attack on one is an attack on all. But other reports suggest what hit the town of Przewodów was the remains of a shot-down Russian rocket. However, a U.S. official said what happened is likely a missile, not remnants of a missile Ukraine shot down. A senior European official speculated that there will be a discussion about the incident at NATO and possibly a reaction from the alliance. "We've seen these reports out of Poland and are working with the Polish government to gather more information," said National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON . "We cannot confirm the reports or any of the details at this time. We will determine what happened and what the appropriate next steps would be." Russia denies any involvement in the strikes on Poland. Lawmakers are warning of consequences if Russia doesn't come forward and explain what happened — and apologize. "I think it's critical that the Russians promptly recognize this was a tragic mistake, apologize for it and offer compensation or this is going to quickly become a challenging issue," said Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.). "Obviously if it was intentional, that has all kinds of consequences to it," Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) added, saying he wants a briefing. In the meantime, European leaders have started to make statements in support of Poland. Latvian Defense Minister ARTIS PABRIKS tweeted: "My condolences to our Polish brothers in arms. Criminal Russian regime fired missiles that target not only Ukrainian civilians but also landed on NATO territory in Poland. Latvia fully stands with Polish friends and condemns this crime."   NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS  – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID .     The Inbox MASSIVE AID PACKAGE TO UKRAINE: The Biden administration asked for $37.7 billion more in Ukraine assistance as part of a new supplemental request to Congress, including $21.7 million earmarked for weapons. Another $7 billion will be given to the White House to draw down existing U.S. weapons and ammunition stocks to send to Ukraine quickly. RUSSIA STRIKES 4 CITIES: Russian missiles struck targets in four Ukrainian cities Tuesday, including Kyiv, the capital. "Missiles hit at least two residential buildings in the center of Kyiv, and struck the country's second largest city, Kharkiv, in the northeast. Explosions were also reported in Lviv, in western Ukraine, as well as in the city of Khmelnytskyi in the center of the country," The New York Times' MARC SANTORA and MARIA VARENIKOVA report. The attack comes as Russian forces retreated from Kherson and Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN skipped the G-20 meeting in Indonesia — leading critics to say it's actually a meeting of the G-19. Zelenskyy said Russia launched 85 missiles at his country, aiming mainly at energy infrastructure. "It is clear what the enemy wants. It will not achieve what it wants," he said . The Economist's SHASHANK JOSHI reports that Russia only has about a month's worth of artillery left, though a dearth of munitions are also impacting Ukrainian operations. CNA's MICHAEL KOFMAN responded to that estimate by tweeting "One month sounds a bit categorical, and not caveated, but I think munitions availability is probably the driving factor on the Russian side." RUSSIA DELAYED ANNOUNCING RETREAT: The U.S. knew the Russian military intended to withdraw from the southern city of Khersan back in October, three people familiar with the intelligence, including two DoD officials, told our own LARA SELIGMAN, but believe Moscow delayed announcing the retreat until after the U.S. midterm elections and a decision from Putin. CNN's KATIE BO WILLIAMS, ZACHARY COHEN and NATASHA BERTRAND first reported the news, writing that "senior Russian officials discussed the U.S. midterms as a factor during deliberations about the withdrawal announcement," one intelligence official told CNN, while another official said waiting until the end of the vote was a "pre-planned condition." President JOE BIDEN hinted during a news conference last week that the Russians purposefully delayed the announcement of the withdrawal. ABUSES ON BOTH SIDES: The U.N. human rights office accused both Russia and Ukraine of torturing prisoners of war throughout the nearly nine-month conflict, Reuters' EMMA FARGE reports . Drawing from more than 100 interviews since April, the monitoring team found that the "vast majority" of Ukrainians imprisoned by Russian troops reported torture and maltreatment, including dog attacks, mock executions, electric shocks and sexual violence, MATILDA BOGNER, head of the monitoring mission, told reporters Tuesday. For Ukraine's part, Bogner reported "credible allegations" of summary executions of Russian prisoners but said Ukrainian authorities investigating haven't learned more yet. Others reported being put naked into trucks or vans, with their hands tied behind their backs, and cases of "welcome beatings" at a penal colony. Russia's defense ministry and Ukraine's foreign affairs ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment. IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 . While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 , @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye . A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today. Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.   Flashpoints U.N.: RELEASE THE PROTESTERS: The United Nations human rights office is urging Iran to release thousands of detained people who formed part of anti-regime demonstrations. "Instead of opening space for dialogue on legitimate grievances, the authorities are responding to unprecedented protests with increasing harshness," office spokesperson JEREMY LAURENCE said in a Tuesday statement. He added that at least 10 of the prisoners were charged with offenses that Iranian officials might punish with the death penalty. That's far different than the much-disputed report claiming Iran planned to execute 15,00 detained prisoners. There's currently no real evidence that that was an actual edict from Tehran. The BBC's SHAYAN SARDARIZADEH offered the facts: "Rights groups estimate 344 protesters, including 52 children, have so far been killed and 15,820 arrested by the Iranian regime." Keystrokes OK, THEY'RE PRETTY GOOD: An influential government advisory body is warning that Chinese hackers have grown "more stealthy, agile and dangerous" than ever before — and it wants the federal government to adopt a host of aggressive measures to thwart them, our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS reports (for Pro!) . Beijing has invested heavily in its cyber policymaking institutions and its hacking capabilities over the last decade, warns the annual report from the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission , and the U.S. risks falling behind if it does not increase investment in its military cyber forces, enact harsher penalties for intellectual property theft and mandate stricter protections for the country's critical infrastructure. U.S. cyber forces face one small problem in trying to "impose costs" on Chinese hackers, finds the report: They're outgunned — er, outkeyboarded — by a factor of 10-1. China's People's Liberation Army has 60,000 cyber personnel, whereas the U.S. Cyber National Mission Force consists of just 6,200 people. The authors want lawmakers to pass legislation mandating a system of benefits, like improved intelligence sharing, and burdens, meaning cybersecurity regulation, for the country's "systemically important critical infrastructure." The Complex STARLINK AS GPS FOR U.S. MILITARY?: Leaders in the Defense Department have expressed an "increased interest" in Starlink since researchers discovered the satellite system can be used as a much better alternative to GPS — if owner ELON MUSK wanted to update its software, Matt reports for Digital Future Daily. By reverse-engineering signals sent to Starlink satellites, Army-funded UT Austin researcher TODD HUMPHREYS and a team of colleagues found that if SpaceX tweaked its software, it could be used as a reliable navigation system . But it's pricey to build the receivers and other hardware, and Musk has already said he doesn't want to pursue the endeavor. "If they wanted this information disclosed, they would have done it," Humphreys told Matt, referring to SpaceX. "It's probably not to their liking that the signal structure, or at least part of it, was revealed." The Air Force is considering "a variety of options" as it examines "existing and alternative means to address potential navigational disruptions," spokesperson ANN STEFANEK told Matt. Stefanek and a spokesperson for Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN's office directed comments to Musk's company, which did not respond to a request. Read Matt's full story here .   Tune in as international security leaders from democracies around the world discuss key challenges at the 14th annual Halifax International Security Forum live from Nova Scotia. As an official media partner, POLITICO will livestream the conversation beginning at 3 p.m. on November 18. The full three-day agenda is here .     On the Hill HUNGARY AMB SCRAP: A POLITICO story caused a Twitter spat between Sens. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) and BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Our own LILI BAYER profiled DAVID PRESSMAN , the U.S. ambassador to Hungary, who has used his platform to counter the conspiracy theories emanating from Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN's government. Cotton is unsatisfied with Pressman's focus. "Our ambassador's job is to promote America's interests and strengthen our relationship with Hungary—a NATO ally!—not to 'call out' their leaders for opposing his liberal sensibilities," he tweeted . Menendez defended Pressman, quote-tweeting Cotton's missive: "Working to defend democracy & human rights isn't a bad thing. Democratic decline & creeping authoritarianism demand diplomats with the qualifications, demeanor & temperament to represent the US abroad. Good on @USAmbHungary @AmbPressman for actually representing universal values." NatSec Daily applauds an actually substantive Twitter fight! WHERE IS IT?: Sens. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) and TIM KAINE (D-Va.) sent a letter to Navy Secretary CARLOS DEL TORO asking about the status of a study on the required number of amphibious ships for America' fleet. The U.S. estimates that China's navy will surpass America's fleet by ship count, reaching more than 450 ships by 2030, the Senate Armed Services Committee members wrote. "Failure to provide and maintain a credible naval deterrent today could mean global catastrophe tomorrow." The lawmakers are demanding "the unredacted, unedited results of the study without further delay." If they don't get it, they want Del Toro to give them a good reason why they haven't seen the report yet. Broadsides G-20 TO CONDEMN RUSSIA: Leaders at the G-20 summit are preparing to crack down on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine following pressure from Biden and Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, the Associated Press' SEUNG MIN KIM, ZEKE MILLER and ELAINE KURTENBACH report . The draft declaration by leaders, viewed by the AP, "deplores in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation" and "demands its complete and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine." In the statement, leaders acknowledged differing views on the conflict and sanctions but noted that the summit was not the arena to resolve security issues. With leaders from Russia and China in attendance, the draft declaration was carefully worded, reflecting the U.S.'s effort to strongly condemn Moscow as other leaders avoid entangling themselves in the situation. Even so, the statement would send a strong message, especially since India and China abstained from condemning the Russian invasion earlier this year. ISRAEL TELLS DOJ TO STOP: Israel's Defense Minister BENNY GANTZ lambasted the Justice Department for deciding to investigate the fatal shooting of Palestinian-American journalist SHIREEN ABU AKLEH, calling it a "grave mistake," the Associated Press' ISABEL DEBRE reports . Al Jazeera journalist Abu Akleh was shot while covering an Israeli raid on the West Bank in May. She was wearing identifiable press gear, along with a helmet, leading to speculation that she was targeted by Israeli forces. A third-party analysis overseen by U.S. officials found that the bullet likely came from Israeli military positions, but because the bullet was badly damaged, its origin could not be determined. In a tweet Monday evening, Gantz said Israel has made it clear to the U.S. that it "won't cooperate with any external investigation," noting that Israel conducted its own investigation already. A DOJ probe into the matters runs the risk of straining a strong partnership between the U.S. and Israel as the nation braces for the formation of its most right-wing government in history. It would also challenge Israel's claims that it holds its soldiers accountable for their actions in Palestinian territories.     Transitions — THEODORE JOHNSON has joined New America as a senior adviser to executive leadership. He'll also head up the organization's US@250 Initiative. Johnson was previously the senior director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice at the NYU School of Law. What to Read — SARAH TOPOL, The New York Times Magazine: Ukraine's 15,000-Mile Lifeline — KONSTANTIN SONIN, Foreign Affairs: Russia's Road to Economic Ruin — REAGAN MULLIN, War on the Rocks: Why Wait to Promote Potential? Because it Will Make The Air Force Better Tomorrow Today — The Institute for Defense and Government Advancement, 9 a.m.: "Realizing Joint All-Domain Command and Control" — The Potomac Officers Club, 10 a.m.: "Cybersecurity in the Modern Intelligence Community" — The Atlantic Council, 10:30 a.m.: "Russia Retreats from Kherson: What's Next?" — The Middle East Institute and the American Task Force on Lebanon, 11 a.m.: Discussion on Lebanon with U.S. Agency for International Development Administrator SAMANTHA POWER — The Heritage Foundation, 12 p.m.: "The American Stake in the Taiwan Strait" — New America, 6 p.m.: "You Are Not Expected to Understand This: How 26 Lines of Code Changed the World" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is always warning us of consequences for our actions. And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who has never done anything wrong. A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today. Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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