Potential 2024 rivals don’t look scared of Trump — for now

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Nov 21, 2022 View in browser   By Calder McHugh Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks at an annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition. | AP Photo/John Locher FEAR FACTOR — Former President Donald Trump's 2024 rivals are putting him on notice: he's not going to just breeze to the nomination. At the Republican Jewish Coalition conference this weekend in Las Vegas — typically a top event for GOP presidential hopefuls — multiple Republicans who are eyeing a 2024 presidential run gathered to speak, including former Trump loyalists Nikki Haley, Mike Pompeo and Ron DeSantis. Trump also spoke at the conference via video feed. Trump's announcement of his candidacy last week did not appear to cow some of his potential opponents. While Haley, Pompeo and DeSantis stopped short of calling Trump out by name, they began floating the idea that Trump might not be the right standard bearer for the party. Other Republicans at the annual meeting, including former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, went after Trump even more directly. To get an inside look into the RJC event and how the 2024 race is shaping up, Nightly spoke with POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt , a political reporter who attended the RJC and has closely followed the movements of the 2024 Republican primary field. This conversation has been edited. What did we learn from this weekend's RJC about the state of the Republican Party? I think the number one thing we learned was that Trump's potential rivals are giving him no deference, which is striking given that he's the former president. Mike Pompeo, Trump's former Secretary of State and CIA director, delivered his most aggressive remarks yet, talking about the need for "competence" and saying the party couldn't simply "complain" or "tweet." Then you had Nikki Haley, Trump's former UN Ambassador, who used her speech to hint at a forthcoming run — thereby backtracking from her pledge last year to defer to Trump. Ron DeSantis, Trump's chief potential primary rival, also hinted at a presidential bid, saying that he'd "only begun to fight." So given those statements, how large is the Republican 2024 primary field shaping up to be? Or is it too early to tell? It's definitely shaping up to be large. New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, whose state hosts the first-in-the-nation primary, estimated that around a dozen people could run. It's a reflection of how these would-be candidates see Trump as weak following the midterms. Can you speak a little more to how the midterms may have affected the race? A lot of the people who spoke laid at least some measure of blame on Trump's feet. To them, it's an indication that Trump is politically weakened and doesn't have the same political sway he once had. It's as if they see blood in the water. But — and this is a big but — people have prematurely written Trump's political obituary many times before. Sununu is someone who has never been a big Trump fan. But Pompeo, Haley and even DeSantis are all former Trump loyalists. Do you expect them to continue to go after Trump? And what was one recent comment from a Republican on Trump that surprised you the most? That's a good question. To some extent, these people are going to feel they need to set contrasts with him because, despite his current vulnerability, Trump is considered the front runner. One recent comment that surprised me was from South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, a longtime Trump ally who declined to endorse him for another term, arguing that he doesn't offer "the best chance" for the GOP to regain the White House. We're seeing many prominent Republicans draw contrasts with Trump, who's already announced. From what you know, how long will some of his primary rivals wait to announce themselves? What's the timeline on all of this? From everything I'm hearing, you're not likely to see any announcements until spring of next year. For one, the holiday season isn't seen as a great time to launch a White House bid. For another, most potential 2024 candidates don't yet have their political machines yet in place and are still building them out. If high-profile Republicans are ditching Trump, what's the argument for him as the continued clear frontrunner? He still has a lot of support from a loyal base — not to mention a small dollar fundraising apparatus. And the fact that others could jump in is something that could play to his benefit, creating a dynamic where non-Trump rivals divide support amongst themselves. What do you think Trump's camp is hoping for? Does he want more people to jump in, even if it means more defections? That's definitely something they think that could help him. But they're also keeping an eye on DeSantis, betting that once he gets in he'll get more scrutiny then he has in the past, not to mention incoming attacks from fellow Republicans. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight's author at cmchugh@politico.com or on Twitter at @calder_mchugh . A programming note: Nightly will be off for Thanksgiving this Thursday and Friday but back to our normal schedule on Monday, Nov. 28.   GO INSIDE THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO is featuring a special edition of our "Future Pulse" newsletter at the 2022 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit from Dec. 6 to 8. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of health industry leaders and innovators solving the biggest global health issues to ensure a healthier, more resilient future for all. SUBSCRIBE TODAY TO RECEIVE EXCLUSIVE COVERAGE .     The New Congress CENTRIST FLEX — Hard-right conservatives have made their demands known to Kevin McCarthy as he rounds up votes for House speaker. Now GOP centrists are next in line , write Olivia Beavers , Jordain Carney and Sarah Ferris . The unexpectedly small majority McCarthy will be working with next year has undoubtedly bolstered the leverage of those on his right flank. But the House Freedom Caucus' vocal criticism is drowning out clear signals from some members of the GOP's more moderate wing: They say McCarthy should know that any deal with rebellious conservatives could face resistance from centrists who see themselves as the GOP's "majority makers." "Kevin's not stupid," said Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio), who leads the centrist Republican Governance Group. "He's trying to add to his numbers, not destroy his base. And so I count on his political acumen to know what's acceptable to the rank and file inside the conference." Whether centrists are willing to withhold their speakership votes from McCarthy on Jan. 3, as some conservatives have indicated, remains to be seen. But it's not just the more moderate Joyce-led group eyeing ways to have extra influence next year. Even as Washington's attention after the midterm turns to the Freedom Caucus, members of the Main Street Caucus and the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus are talking among themselves about it. What'd I Miss? A worker drives near freight trains and shipping containers in a Union Pacific Intermodal Terminal rail yard. | Mario Tama/Getty Images — Largest freight rail unions split on contract vote, raising strike concerns: The two largest freight rail unions split their votes on agreeing to a contract today , a mixed signal in a monthslong, high-stakes negotiation that could lead to a shutdown of the nation's freight rail network starting next month. Members of the union representing conductors and other workers voted to reject their proposed contract, adding additional fuel for a potential freight rail strike that could begin as soon as Dec. 5, the end of a "cooling off" period to allow for more negotiations. The "no" vote adds to pressure on Congress to step in and avert a work stoppage that could impede coal shipments, shut down most passenger rail, imperil drinking water and cost the economy billions per day. — Woman convicted for storming Pelosi's office on Jan. 6: A Pennsylvania woman who joined a mob in Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office suite on Jan. 6, 2021, was convicted today for impeding police officers trying to defend the Capitol . After three days of deliberation, jurors convicted Riley Williams, 22, of six charges, including participating in a civil disorder, impeding officers who tried to clear the Capitol Rotunda and disorderly conduct on Capitol grounds. But the jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on two of the central counts in the case: whether Williams "aided and abetted" in the theft of a laptop from Pelosi's office that the speaker used to make Zoom calls amid the Covid pandemic, and obstruction of Congress' Jan. 6 proceeding — a felony that carries a 20-year maximum penalty. — Democrats confront bleak odds for immigration deal before 2023: Democrats eager to find a legislative solution before 2023 for young undocumented immigrants are getting a wake-up call: They need votes from Republicans who don't want to do it . As the GOP prepares to take the House, top Senate Democrats are desperately proclaiming that the post-election session is the best — and perhaps only — chance for Congress to act in the near term on deportation protections for the immigrants known as "Dreamers." And with good reason: After the Senate passed a comprehensive bill in 2013, the Republican-controlled House never took it up.   POLITICO APP USERS: UPGRADE YOUR APP BY DECEMBER 19! We recently upgraded the POLITICO app with a fresh look and improved features for easier access to POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Starting December 19, users will no longer have access to the previous version of the app. Update your app today to stay on top of essential political news, insights, and analysis from the best journalists in the business. UPDATE iOS APP – UPDATE ANDROID APP .     AROUND THE WORLD WARSAW WINNING — When a stray missile landed in a Polish border town last week killing two people, some European leaders worried as much about how Poland's right-wing government would react as they did about the possibility that Russia had ordered the strike, write Matthew Karnitschnig and Wojciech Kość . Poland's longstanding distrust of all things Russian and the current government's deep antipathy toward Moscow triggered concern from Brussels to Berlin that Warsaw might do something rash. Instead of losing its nerve, however, Warsaw was stoical, placing its armed forces on alert, while also keeping its powder dry until there was clarity about what happened. (The conclusion is that it was an air defense missile fired by Ukraine to protect itself from a Russian attack that went astray.) That calm was born of a simple reality that has for years passed most of Europe by: Poland has what is arguably Europe's best army. And it's only going to get stronger. Poland already has more tanks and howitzers than Germany and is on course to have a much larger army, with a target of 300,000 troops by 2035, compared with Germany's current 170,000. Read all about Poland's transformation into a military power here . Nightly Number Over 600 The number of mass shootings that have occurred in the United States this year, according to the Gun Violence Archive. Over the weekend, a mass shooting occurred at a gay nightclub in Colorado Springs, Colo. — the day before Transgender Day of Remembrance, which commemorates victims of anti-transgender violence. Radar Sweep CODE BREAKER — A class action lawsuit is going after Github Copilot , a tool you've likely never heard of if you don't work in tech that automatically writes code. The lawsuit, though, could have huge implications for generative AI tools more broadly: ones that generate text, illustrations, or photographs from a prompt. Will Knight reports for WIRED. Parting Words Iran players line up for the national anthem prior to their World Cup match against England. Iran's players stayed silent during the rendition of their anthem. | Julian Finney/Getty Images SHUT UP AND DRIBBLE — The first days of the 2022 World Cup have seen Qatari and FIFA officials desperately attempting to keep overt political statements out of their sporting event. Thus far, they've had mixed success, writes Nightly's Calder McHugh . Multiple European teams reportedly scrapped plans for their captains to wear rainbow armbands with the words "One Love" on them, in protest of homosexuality being illegal in Qatar. They did so after warnings from FIFA that players wearing these arm-bands could face sanctions, which included yellow cards (essentially a warning — if a player receives two yellow cards in one match, they are sent off). Whether FIFA would have followed through on putting some of the biggest stars of the tournament on yellows is unclear; the stern warning spooked the teams enough to back off. Prominent soccer journalist Grant Wahl, covering the World Cup, also reported that he was detained by Qatari security for refusing to take off a rainbow-colored soccer t-shirt while entering the grounds. A security guard told him that his shirt was "political" (he disagreed), and he eventually made it through to the media center, shirt on, after being held up for about half an hour. Small protests against Qatar's anti-LGBTQ laws, though, are not the only political flashpoint. Qatar security has also denied entry to Iranian fans holding the Persian flag , in protest of the Iranian regime cracking down on protesters after the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in Iranian police custody. What Qatar could not stop was a protest on the field — Iran's team stayed silent during their national anthem before their loss to England earlier today. Protests at global sporting events are far from new — an enduring example is Tommie Smith and John Carlos raising their fists on the podium at the 1968 Olympic Games in Mexico City. But complaints about this year's World Cup are largely about the host nation itself (with some exceptions, including protests in Iran). These objections are numerous: they include the selection process itself— a dozen FIFA officials involved with picking Qatar have since been indicted or banned from the organization over allegations of corruption — and the behavior of the host nation since . Thousands of migrant workers have died in Qatar building World Cup stadiums and other projects, In addition, FIFA had to move the timing of the tournament to accommodate Qatar's hot summers, Qatar's sustainability pledges appear to rely on " creative accounting " and the host nation also has overarching problems with a lack of political rights and civil liberties. Qatar and FIFA have done everything they can to stop politics from invading the World Cup. The problem is, Qatar's decision to host was political in and of itself: the government wanted to signal its geopolitical might and "sportswash" their regime — that is, use sports to distract from or clean up their humanitarian reputation. As soon as FIFA made the decision to choose Qatar as a host, they should have expected a political response. We're today seeing the results of that decision. Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Katherine Long @katherinealong   Follow us

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