The looming election disaster

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Nov 07, 2022 View in browser   By Charlie Mahtesian Presented by Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, who denies the result of the 2020 presidential election, is greeted by former President Donald Trump at a rally. | Spencer Platt/Getty Images OFF THE RAILS — It's time to talk about it out loud: This year's election is going to be a train wreck. Not just Election Day, but the weeks and perhaps even months to come. For starters, it might not be clear who controls the House for days, or longer. In the Senate, it could be weeks. In fact, if the polling averages are correct , we might not know who controls the Senate until after a potential early December runoff in Georgia. But that's the least of the trouble ahead. All the elements of a perfect storm are present: a rise in threats against election administrators and poll workers; outdated and overstrained election infrastructure; a brain drain of officials experienced with the complexities of administering elections; external cyber threats; and an abundance of close races that could extend long past Election Day as mail-in and provisional ballots are counted, recounted and litigated. Then, there are the hundreds of Republican candidates up and down the ballot with a record of denying or expressing doubts about the 2020 presidential results — a few were even present at the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. At least a dozen candidates running in competitive Senate and governor and secretary of state contests refused to commit or declined to respond when asked whether they'll accept the results of their races. A blowout Republican victory might remove many of the most combustible elements. But short of a red wave Tuesday, we're looking at an ugly finish. If those prominent election-denying candidates lose, it will not be graciously — remember, these are candidates whose political brands are rooted in their refusal to accept the 2020 election results, and their own high-profile and extra-legal efforts to overturn them. For them, the traditional pain and disappointment of defeat will be amplified because of the high expectations of midterm GOP success. And there are no party graybeards who will be able to talk them down — in fact, the post-election recriminations will likely find backing from party leaders and elected officials who fear antagonizing a base that's been primed to believe the 2020 election was rigged. The wellspring of these false claims, former President Donald Trump, is already laying the predicate — last week, he sought to cast doubt on the integrity of Pennsylvania's results by claiming the 2022 results there are rigged as well . Election Day never goes entirely smoothly across the nation — there have long been isolated cases of voter intimidation or suppression, reports of voting irregularities, precincts that run out of ballots, long lines and accusations of fraud, among other potholes. But we've never seen anything like these conditions, all swirling against the backdrop of a sprawling election denial industrial complex that looks to be a permanent feature of American politics. The perverse incentives of our current system mean it's likely that there will be candidates who seek to take advantage of these conditions, rather than dial down the temperature by operating with caution and temperance. Don't be surprised if there are tactical election night declarations of victory well before the outcome is clear. The swing states that will be critical to the outcome of the 2024 presidential election may be the scenes of some of the worst behavior. Already, the Justice Department noted that seven battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — accounted for nearly 60 percent of all threats of physical violence that election workers reported to a federal task force on election threats. Those states are home to numerous photo-finish races this year — and some of the nation's best-known election deniers are on the ballot in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Well-aware of the fraught environment in which they're operating, election administrators across the country have worked diligently to increase transparency and restore public faith in the integrity of election results. Those efforts — and a one-sided election — might be enough to avoid widespread meltdowns this year. But that will only kick the can down the road. A Republican rout Tuesday could sweep in a collection of election-denying candidates who will have authority over approving vote tallies and certifying results — including in the battleground states that will decide the 2024 presidential election. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight's author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on Twitter at @PoliticoCharlie .   A message from Bank of America: Bank of America's new report finds that access to capital remains a key issue for women and minority business owners, with half of AAPI, Black and Hispanic-Latino business owners experiencing challenges. Read the Women & Minority Business Owner Spotlight.   Poll Watcher 73 percent The percentage of likely Democratic and Republican voters who rated their enthusiasm for voting at either a 9/10 or a 10/10, according to a new poll from NBC News . That's a notable change from an NBC News poll in October, when 78 percent of Republicans were that enthusiastic and only 69 percent of Democrats were. What'd I Miss? — Musk pushes independents to vote Republican ahead of midterms: Twitter CEO Elon Musk today urged "independent-minded voters" to cast their ballots for Republicans in Tuesday's midterm elections . "To independent-minded voters: Shared power curbs the worst excesses of both parties, therefore I recommend voting for a Republican Congress, given that the Presidency is Democratic," Musk wrote on Twitter. The tweet garnered over 11,000 retweets and over 71,000 less than 30 minutes after it was posted. — Oath Keepers leader tells jury he never wanted his group in the Capitol on Jan. 6: Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes said today he was shocked to learn that his allies went "off-mission" and entered the Capitol on Jan. 6, telling jurors he only learned about it after the fact and never viewed disrupting Congress as a goal for his far-right group. "I didn't want them getting wrapped up into all the nonsense with Trump supporters," Rhodes said under questioning from his attorneys. "My goal was to make sure that no one got wrapped up in that Charlie Foxtrot going on inside the Capitol."   NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS  – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID .     AROUND THE WORLD Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman who has admitted to interfering in American elections. | AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File UNWANTED INTERLOPERS — A close ally of Vladimir Putin said today that Russia has meddled in U.S. elections — and will continue to do so, write Tristan Fielder and Mark Scott . Yevgeny Prigozhin, a businessman and the founder of the mercenary Wagner Group — whose members have been at the forefront of Moscow's offensive in Ukraine — made the admission on Russian social network Vkontakt. Asked by a journalist whether Russia was interfering in the U.S. midterms on Nov. 8, Prigozhin answered: " Gentlemen, we interfered, we interfere and we will interfere ," adding, "carefully, precisely, surgically and in our own way, as we know how." Without giving further explanation, he added: "During our pinpoint operations, we will remove both kidneys and the liver at once." Rumors that Prigozhin — who has faced sanctions from Washington and European countries — has been involved in meddling in U.S. elections are not new. In July, the U.S. State Department announced a $10 million reward for information about his "engagement in U.S. election interference."   A message from Bank of America:   Nightly Number 64 The number of jurisdictions, across 24 states, that the Justice Department is sending federal monitors to in order to monitor polling places during Tuesday's elections . That's a marked increase from the presidential election two years ago when the DOJ sent monitors to 44 jurisdictions in 18 states. Radar Sweep OK, BOOMER — Have you noticed more email solicitations in your inbox than ever in advance of the midterms? That's planned, and it's directed at Baby Boomers, a generation that is particularly likely to hand out money in response to email solicitations, some of which have increasingly attention-grabbing headlines like "Stabbed to death with scissors …" Benjamin Powers reports for Grid News.   DON'T MISS POLITICO'S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, "At a Crossroads: America's Defense Strategy" on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America's national security. REGISTER HERE .     Parting Image Former Cranston, R.I., mayor and Republican candidate for the state's 2nd Congressional District, Allan Fung, greets a voter outside a polling site in Warwick, R.I., today, the last day of early voting before the midterm election. Fung is competitive in a district that has historically been a Democratic stronghold. | AP Photo/David Goldman   A message from Bank of America: The latest insights on small business owners: Bank of America's 2022 Women & Minority Business Owner Spotlight found that despite challenges of inflation, supply chain, and labor shortages, business owners' confidence in both the national and local economy increased significantly from the spring. Nearly 40% of business owners plan to hire over the next year, as entrepreneurs explore growing their operations and expect increased revenue. Read the full report.   Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Naomi Andu @naomiandu   Follow us

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