The rush to buy and build weapons

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.

Nov 23, 2022 View in browser   By Paul McLeary , Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. Cody Brown, right, with the 436th Aerial Port Squadron, checks pallets of 155 mm shells ultimately bound for Ukraine. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman PROGRAMMING NOTE: We'll be off for Thanksgiving this Thursday and Friday but back to our normal schedule on Monday, Nov. 28. Governments from Ottawa to Oslo are racing to figure out how to more quickly buy and build new weapons as the war in Ukraine drains their stockpiles at an unrelenting pace. While VLADIMIR PUTIN isn't in much better shape with only Iran and North Korea to lean on, the artillery and armor-heavy war align with how the Kremlin has prepared to fight. But the West is looking for ways to surge production of anti-armor weapons and new air defenses, and is dipping deep into reserves of artillery ammunition as the Ukrainians pop off 5,000 to 6,000 rounds a day at entrenched Russian positions in the south. The fighting in Ukraine is "an industrial capacity war," new Swedish Defense Minister PAL JONSON told NatSec Daily on the sidelines of the Halifax International Security Forum over the weekend. Sweden, he said, will reach NATO's baseline of spending 2 percent of GDP for defense by 2026, two years sooner than the country's original plan. That extra money won't necessarily mean more gear right away. Countries across Europe have announced tens of billions more in defense spending since Russia invaded Ukraine, but the defense industry hasn't had the time to increase capacity or hire new workers yet, as companies await new contracts. That spending "is going to put more pressure on the defense industrial base, and if we're gonna have to ramp up production, I think dialogue between the government agencies and defense industrial bases will be important," Jonson said. That was a major concern during NATO's latest summit in Brussels last month, where cables describing closed-door meetings seen by POLITICO showed deep concern over the industry's ability to meet countries' needs in the short term. "The solution will be difficult because this is about prioritization," between weapons systems, countries, and each country's ability to balance domestic needs and military spending, NATO's top officer, Adm. ROB BAUER , told NatSec Daily. "That's a political discussion, how we're going to spend more money." It's not just Ukraine and NATO nations that are struggling to replenish their stockpiles. "The sanctions are hitting Putin more and more," KAJSA OLLONGREN , the defense minister for the Netherlands, told NatSec Daily at Halifax. "We know that while they may be testing Ukrainian air defenses, at the same time, they're depleting their own stocks and we have to make sure that they cannot rebuild and that their industry is really severely hit by not being able to get the things they need." The Pentagon is also rushing to make changes. In August, it threw together a "tiger team" co-chaired by SASHA BAKER, the department's No. 2 policy official, and acquisition chief WILLIAM LaPLANTE, to develop a roadmap to speed up foreign arms sales, partially due to the experience in trying to restock European allies. The work is expected to wrap soon, two people familiar said. The effort comes as the U.S. looks to compete with other countries that are positioning themselves as alternatives to expensive, often slow-to-arrive U.S. weaponry. Since July, South Korea has sold billions worth of fighter planes, tanks and rocket systems to Poland, which has emerged as a steady customer for the American defense industry. Several other would-be customers are looking at systems that Seoul has promised it can deliver more quickly than the Americans. "We said, 'if no other country is able to provide [weapons quickly] we will go with the Koreans because we see the situation as very dynamic," Gen. RAJMUND ANDRZEJCZAK, chief of the Polish armed forces, told NatSec Daily.   NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS  – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID .     The Inbox PUTIN MAY USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS: The Kremlin may resort to using chemical weapons in Ukraine before going for the nuclear option if its troops continue to lose ground, our own ERIN BANCO and LARA SELIGMAN report . That's according to six people familiar with the matter, who voiced concerns as the White House pushes to ensure allies are prepared for such an event. Still, the U.S. does not have any intelligence to suggest such an attack in Ukraine is imminent, the people said. Chemical weapons could be used if Moscow sees continued battlefield losses or if the Russian army completely collapses, the officials said. Such an attack would involve chemicals that are easily concealed, making it more difficult for Western countries to pin on Moscow, one official said. TURKISH MISSILES THREATENED TROOPS: Turkish airstrikes conducted this week in northern Syria posed a risk to American troops and personnel, U.S. Central Command spokesperson Col. JOE BUCCINO told Lara . Among the targets this week was a base jointly manned by the Syrian Democratic Forces and the coalition to defeat the Islamic State, which includes American troops, according to SINAM MOHAMAD, the Syrian Democratic Council Representative to the U.S. "We oppose any military action that destabilizes the situation in Syria," Buccino wrote in a statement. "These actions threaten our shared goals, including the continued fight against ISIS to ensure the group can never resurge and threaten the region." SDF ASKS FOR WESTERN OPPOSITION: The top commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces is urging Western allies to oppose further Turkish attacks, arguing that the pressure could cause a potential invasion to be averted, The Washington Post's LOUISA LOVELUCK reports . On Monday, Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN vowed to launch a ground attack on U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in northern Syria, claiming they were responsible for a deadly attack last week. But there's a chance it could be avoided, Gen. MAZLOUM KOBANE ABDI told the Post. "This war, if it happens, won't benefit anybody," said Mazloum, who is referred to by his nom de guerre. "It will affect many lives, there will be massive waves of displacement, and a humanitarian crisis." RUSSIA CONDEMNED AS IT STRIKES UKRAINE: Moscow continued its barrage on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, leaving most residents without power and killing three people in Kyiv on Wednesday, the Associated Press' JOHN LEICESTER and SAM MEDNICK report . The latest strikes came hours after a 2-day-old baby was killed during an overnight rocket attack that hit a hospital maternity ward, according to Ukrainian authorities. The European Parliament also on Wednesday overwhelmingly backed a resolution to declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism for its invasion of Ukraine. The vote, decided 494-58 with 48 abstentions, sought to increase pressure on Moscow to bring anyone responsible for war crimes before an international court. NEW UKRAINE AID: The Pentagon on Wednesday announced another $400 million in security assistance to Ukraine, including artillery rounds, generators and additional munitions for the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems for use against Russian missile and drone attacks. IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 . While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 , @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye . A message from Lockheed Martin: Unrivaled. The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century warfare network-centric architecture. Learn more.   Flashpoints COMMANDERS ENCOURAGED VIOLENCE: Lawyers investigating war crimes in Ukraine have found evidence that Russian commanders encouraged and ordered acts of sexual violence in Ukraine, Reuters' JOANNA PLUCINSKA, ANTHONY DEUTSCH and STEFANIIA BERN report. British lawyer WAYNE JORDASH found that some instances of violence that occurred in areas north of Kyiv signal that Russian troops acted in a way that "speaks to planning on a more systematic level." A team providing legal expertise to Ukraine, including Jordash, believes it is still too early to determine how common these acts were in places recently liberated from Russian control. Kyiv has claimed Russia has committed war crimes in areas freed by Ukrainian troops, including mass graves discovered in Izyum. Keystrokes CHINA'S CYBER STRATEGY: If tensions continue to escalate and China invades Taiwan, the Chinese government will "almost certainly" use cyber warfare as part of its attempt to bring the island to its knees, our friends over at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report . In a report out today , researchers at cybersecurity group Recorded Future warn that if China were to invade Taiwan, cyberattacks aimed at seeking "information dominance" would likely be involved, with the attacks aimed at military and civilian information systems. The Complex HYPERSONIC PROJECTS INBOUND: The Pentagon is launching six projects to accelerate hypersonic development and production, including expanding the skilled workforce, our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report . The technology areas range from materials to autonomous mission planning and navigation, according to a new request for proposals in partnership with the University Consortium for Applied Hypersonics at Texas A&M University. In the first phase, the Joint Hypersonics Transition Office is seeking white papers by Jan. 20. If accepted, entrants will receive an invitation on April 7 to participate. That will be followed by proposals for technology prototypes due June 5. Winners will be selected Aug. 31, and the projects will get underway at the start of 2024.   GO INSIDE THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO is featuring a special edition of our "Future Pulse" newsletter at the 2022 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit from Dec. 6 to 8. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of health industry leaders and innovators solving the biggest global health issues to ensure a healthier, more resilient future for all. SUBSCRIBE TODAY TO RECEIVE EXCLUSIVE COVERAGE .     On the Hill DRONES OVER D.C.: Lawmakers are sounding the alarm about hundreds of Chinese-manufactured drones that have been detected in restricted airspace over D.C. in recent months, our own BRYAN BENDER and ANDREW DESIDERIO report . "Any technological product with origins in China or Chinese companies holds a real risk and potential of vulnerability that can be exploited both now and in a time of conflict," Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), vice chair of the Intelligence Committee, said in an interview about the potential threats posed by foreign-made drones. Federal officials and drone industry experts have delivered classified briefings to the Senate Homeland Security, Commerce and Intelligence committees on the drones, three people privy to the meetings said. GRASSLEY POKES MUSK: Sen. CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-Iowa) has sent a letter to Twitter owner ELON MUSK, asking him to answer questions about the company's security and privacy, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!) . The ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee requested a briefing from the billionaire by Dec. 15 on concerns over "significant security" failures at Twitter stemming from allegations made by former Twitter executive PEITER "MUDGE" ZATKO in September. Broadsides FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — QATARI SURVEILLANCE CONCERNS: Rep. JACK BERGMAN (R-Mich.) is urging the State Department to outline steps it's taking to ensure the safety of Americans traveling to Qatar for the World Cup, citing surveillance concerns reported by other European countries. "It seems that the U.S. government has not yet acted as forcefully as other Western governments with respect to the well-reported surveillance activities of the State of Qatar," wrote Bergman in a letter to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN obtained by DANIEL LIPPMAN. The Michigan lawmaker highlighted findings from Germany's data protection commissioner who warned visitors against downloading World Cup apps, including one that tracks telephone call data. The State Department told Natsec Daily it's aware of the apps' safety concerns and urged Americans overseas to routinely check the U.S. Embassy in Qatar's World Cup webpage for security updates. The Qatari government declined a request for comment, but lifted its Covid-19 vaccination requirement weeks before the tournament began, meaning visitors no longer were required to download the country's health monitoring app. RUSSIANS SIT ALONE AT LUNCH: Moscow's diplomats have been given the cold shoulder by other nations at international cybersecurity meetings since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Maggie and ERIC GELLER report . "People put an empty chair on either side of the Russians and don't sit next to them," said NATHANIEL FICK, the U.S. ambassador at large for cyberspace and digital policy, in an interview. And the Russian diplomats appear to be reading the room: "At coffee breaks, they take their coffee sitting in front of their microphones when everybody else is milling around at tables. They grab their lunch and sit alone," Fick said. "The isolation is palpable."     What to Read — EUN A JO, Foreign Affairs: Japan and South Korea Are Still Haunted by the Past — WILLIAM HARTUNG, The Nation: U.S. Arms Dealing Is Out of Control — LUKE COFFEY, National Review: Why the U.S. Should Continue to Support Ukraine Monday Today — Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 8:30 a.m.: "ASPI Masterclass: Space and National Security" — The Atlantic Council, 10:30 a.m.: "How can Ukraine defeat Putin's energy blitz?" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3:30 p.m.: "Book Event - Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise" — The Wilson Center, 4 p.m.: "New Scholarship on US Intelligence History" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Dave Brown, who never wants to sit with us at lunch. And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who always takes her coffee with us. A message from Lockheed Martin: Unrivaled. Information is the battlespace advantage. F-35 sensor fusion provides vast amounts of information to accelerate critical decisions and win the fight. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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