The U.S. military plan to keep ISIS down: Infrastructure

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Nov 09, 2022 View in browser   By Lara Seligman , Alexander Ward , Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye Roughly 900 special forces are still working overtime to help local forces hunt ISIS remnants to keep the terrorist group at bay. | John Moore/Getty Images Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The focus may be on the midterms and the Russia-Ukraine war, but the Pentagon is quietly starting to build infrastructure in Syria for a long-haul fight with the Islamic State. Roughly 900 special forces are still working overtime to help local forces hunt ISIS remnants to keep the terrorist group at bay. The Department of Defense's latest weapon of choice, though, is improved facilities and services so ISIS can't break out the 10,000 or so former fighters languishing in crumbling detention centers across Syria. ISIS fighters have targeted these areas multiple times in recent months, most brazenly attacking the Hasakah prison in northeastern Syria in January. Scores of prisoners escaped during the 10-day battle that ensued. "We know that ISIS sees the detention centers, the detainee population, as the path to reconstitute its ranks," said one defense official, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the situation. "So even though ISIS doesn't hold territory… the inspiration and the will to reconstitute is not going away." The Pentagon sought authority and funding from Congress to make some improvements, although it's the local partner — the Syrian Democratic Forces — that is actually carrying out the upgrades on the ground. Some of this work has already begun, including building guard towers and installing lights to prevent nighttime smuggling. The ultimate goal is to build new, purpose-built facilities that are more secure and humane, with access to medical and other services. DoD is doing feasibility assessments for the construction of these new facilities, though the effort is expected to take several years. But this is a Band-Aid to a much deeper problem. The long-term solution, officials say, is repatriating the prisoners to their countries of origin — primarily Iraq, Syria and a number of other nations including Canada and Australia. Unfortunately, the outlook is pretty grim. "If the repatriation efforts continue at this rate, we will be there for a decade or more," the official said. "So, the urgency of this problem, for which the State Department is in the lead, couldn't be more dire." Any progress the U.S. and its partners are making in the country, though, could be impeded by another large-scale Turkish invasion of northeastern Syria. Ankara has been making noises about such an incursion for months, while at the same time raising tensions by conducting strikes in Syria against Syrian Democratic Forces targets, including taking out the female leader of the YPJ, the all-female arm of the SDF. U.S. officials have raised the alarm since the summer that such a move would be catastrophic for the counter-ISIS fight. Top defense officials even visited Turkey earlier this year to convey their concerns directly to Ankara.   NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS  – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID .     The Inbox EARLY NATSEC MIDTERM TAKEAWAYS: We know, we know, you're sick of reading about the midterms already, and this is a national security newsletter. But hear us out: There's already chatter about the ripple effects (get it?) of the results. Experts on the left are advocating for Democrats to relax the sanctions on Cuba and Venezuela since Florida is deep red and out of reach politically. "If any Democrats still think it makes sense to fruitlessly embargo the island of Cuba into submission until the end of time, in order to gain an insufficient number of votes in a red state, could you please explain why?" the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's STEPHEN WERTHEIM tweeted . Of course, that might be hard to pull off even if Democrats hold on to the Senate. After all, Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) — a leading proponent for keeping the pressure on autocrat-led nations in Latin America — leads the Foreign Relations Committee. And Rep. TIM RYAN 's (D-Ohio) loss in the Ohio Senate race, per progressives, goes to show that blaming China for many of America's ills just won't cut it as a foreign policy message. "Ryan was a shittier candidate than anyone wanted to admit — a red-scare, xenophobe-stoking blue dog who offered no real solutions to economic insecurity," tweeted VAN JACKSON , a former Pentagon official in the Obama administration. Meanwhile, the expected slim Republican majority in the House gives the populist faction of the party increased power. That's bad news if you're sitting in Ukraine right now. Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) vowed that Ukraine won't get more aid with Republicans in charge — challenging her party's overall support for Kyiv. She and like-minded lawmakers are preparing to wield more power. "A narrower majority means that somebody like Thomas Massie has more influence in the majority," Rep. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.) told Semafor . "There's a reason for me to be happy." Experts we've spoken to say the midterm result makes it more likely that a Ukraine aid package passes in December — before the new Congress arrives in Washington. (More on the natsec lawmakers who won and lost in On The Hill below.) RUSSIA RETREATING FROM KHERSON: The Russian military is withdrawing from Kherson , dealing Putin another major blow to his invasion campaign. Russian Defense Minister SERGEI SHOIGU and SERGEI SUROVIKIN, the commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, announced the move on social media and in a weird television appearance . "We will save the lives of our soldiers and fighting capacity of our units," Surovikin said. "Keeping them on the right [western] bank is futile. Some of them can be used on other fronts." The move to place Russian troops across the Dnipro River comes after weeks of fighting for the southern city. Recapturing Kherson was a major focus of Ukraine's counteroffensive campaign. However, advisers to Zelenskyy say there is currently no real retreat happening in Kherson , with Russian troops still remaining in the city and reserves on their way to the region. GRINER SENT TO PENAL COLONY: WNBA star BRITTNEY GRINER has been sent to a penal colony to serve her nine-year sentence for drug possession, according to her legal team. Griner was transferred from her detention center in Iksha on Friday, attorneys MARIA BLAGOVOLINA and ALEXANDER BOYKOV said in a statement today. They don't know the 32-year-old basketball player's exact location or destination. The U.S. has made a "significant offer" to Moscow for Griner's release, White House spokesperson KARINE JEAN-PIERRE said in a statement. Though Russia hasn't reciprocated, the U.S. government has followed up on the offer and proposed "alternative potential ways forward." It has been widely reported that the U.S. has offered convicted Russian arms dealer VIKTOR BOUT for the release of Griner and PAUL WHALEN. FRANCE'S FUTURE: France is aiming to strengthen its military prowess through the end of the decade and become an "independent, respected, agile power," President EMMANUEL MACRON said in a speech today, the Associated Press' SYLVIE CORBET reports . "Europe is not sheltered anymore from missile and drone strikes. And we must integrate this reality," Macron said, speaking from a helicopter carrier docked in the Mediterranean military base of Toulon. As he unveiled the country's "national strategic review" for the next decade, Macron emphasized that Russia's aggression toward Ukraine "may precede broader geopolitical rivalries and a future that we have no reason to accept with fatalism." Macron aims to enhance the European Union's defense capacity since the bloc remains largely dependent on NATO and the U.S. for security. Because France is the only European country with a nuke, its "nuclear forces contribute through their own existence to the security of France and Europe," he said. Read: France's new national security strategy . IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 . While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 and @Lawrence_Ukenye . A message from Lockheed Martin: Unrivaled. The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century warfare network-centric architecture. Learn more.   Flashpoints ANOTHER MISSILE TEST: North Korea launched a short-range ballistic missile toward its eastern sea on Wednesday, continuing recent tests that have alarmed Seoul and Washington, Associated Press reports. The missile landed outside of Japan's exclusive economic zone, according to Japanese defense officials. South Korean officials are working with counterparts in the U.S. and Japan to discuss further trilateration defense cooperation, fearing Pyongyang could conduct its first nuclear test since 2017. North Korea's military claimed that tests conducted last week were simulations to strike U.S. and South Korean military targets. Last week, the Biden administration told NatSec Daily that the White House is looking for ways to hold the DPRK accountable, but there are no plans to change strategy. Keystrokes CRYPTO CONUNDRUM: The Treasury Department is honing in on its controversial effort to sanction the virtual currency mixing service Tornado Cash, accusing it of helping funnel money to North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, our friends over at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report . The introduction of the new sanctions justifications on Tuesday will give the U.S. government more legal grist as it gears up for a lawsuit filed last month by crypto advocacy group Coin Center, which argues the Treasury Department has no standing to sanction the Ethereum-based service because it is not a person or entity, but self-executing code. The new listing for the first time ties the funds North Korean hackers laundered through Tornado Cash — allegedly $455 million — to the funding of the country's weapons program. The alleged link between Tornado Cash and Pyongyang's missile program should strengthen Treasury's argument in court, but it doesn't alter the core issue in the lawsuit: the Department's right to sanction autonomous software.   DON'T MISS POLITICO'S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, "At a Crossroads: America's Defense Strategy" on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America's national security. REGISTER HERE .     The Complex SECRET MEETING: Top DoD officials held a classified meeting with the eight of the largest defense contractors on Tuesday, where "accelerating weapons development and production and building more capacity across the industrial base" was a major theme, Morning Defense (for Pros!) reports . That's according to a Pentagon readout, which also said the discussions included how to manage labor shortages in an "exceptionally challenging jobs market." The meeting included Deputy Defense Secretary KATHLEEN HICKS, acquisition chief WILLIAM LaPLANTE and R&D boss HEIDI SHYU, as well as top strategist MARA KARLIN and DEBORAH ROSENBLUM, who is performing the duties of assistant secretary for industrial base policy. The companies represented were Boeing; L3Harris Technologies; Raytheon Technologies; BAE Systems; Lockheed Martin; Huntington Ingalls Industries; General Dynamics; and Northrop Grumman. On the Hill NATSEC LAWMAKERS LOSE SEATS: Democratic national security advocates Reps. ELAINE LURIA (D-V.a.) and TOM MALINOWSKI (D-N.J.) suffered election defeats in midterm races. Luria lost to Virginia Republican state senator JEN KIGGANS and Malinowski was defeated by former New Jersey Republican assemblyman THOMAS KEAN JR. Luria, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, aggressively advocated for expanding the Navy and criticized President Biden's proposed $813 billion defense budget. She also included amendments to boost the defense bill's topline by $37 billion to build five more ships. Malinowski fought to target Russian oligarchs by introducing a bill that would use seized asset sales to fund efforts to rebuild Ukraine. Despite the losses for Democrats, Republicans aren't poised to pick up as many seats as anticipated, which may signal that the party's efforts to support Ukraine might not be greatly stymied despite Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY's desire to avoid writing Kyiv a "blank check". Some national security-minded Democrats were able to stave off their GOP opponents including Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN (D-Mich.) and JENNIFER WEXTON (D-V.a.). Rep. MARCY KAPTUR (D-Ohio), who co-chairs the House's Ukraine Caucus, also won reelection after defeating J.R. MAJEWSKI, whose claims about his military record unraveled . Broadsides BIDEN TO TALK EGYPTIAN HUMAN RIGHTS: President JOE BIDEN plans to hammer on human rights when he meets with Egyptian President ABDEL FATTAH EL-SISI on Friday, our own ZACK COLMAN reported Tuesday . Senior administration officials told reporters that the U.S. has "raised repeated concerns" about jailed activist ALAA ABD EL-FATTAH, whose case has attracted global attention as his health deteriorates amid a 200-plus day hunger strike. He has been jailed since the mid-2010s for dissent and received another five-year sentence in December. Biden will meet with El-Sisi on the sidelines of the COP27 U.N. climate conference in Egypt. The question is if the criticism will have the desired effect. Biden spoke up about human rights in Saudi Arabia last summer, only to have Riyadh continue to defy the U.S. in major policy areas like oil production.     Transitions — KATRINA CHAN has joined the British Embassy in the U.S. as social secretary for the ambassador, Dame KAREN PIERCE. What to Read — ORYSIA LUTSEVYCH, The New York Times: This Is What Victory for Ukraine Looks Like — MUJTABA RAHMAN, POLITICO: Hungary and EU inch toward deal — PATRICIA KIME and REBECCA KHEEL, Military.com: They Said the Rise in Military Suicide Is a Mystery. Traumatic Brain Injury May Be an Answer. Tomorrow Today — The National Press Club, 12 p.m.: Voice of America Chief National Correspondent Steve Herman — The Government Executive Media Group, 1 p.m.: Piloting Software Innovation — The Government Executive Media Group, 1 p.m.: "Evolving Mission Partner Networks to Enhance Warfighter Capability: A Dispatch from TechNet Indo-Pac 2022." — The Wilson Center, 4 p.m.: "Republics of Myth: National Narratives and the US-Iran Conflict" — Richard Nixon Foundation, 6:45 p.m.: Grand Strategy Summit with remarks by HENRY KISSINGER and Ambassador ROBERT C. O'BRIEN Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who doesn't want our power over this newsletter to reconstitute. And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, whose power never wanes. A message from Lockheed Martin: Unrivaled. Information is the battlespace advantage. F-35 sensor fusion provides vast amounts of information to accelerate critical decisions and win the fight. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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