What Pelosi stepping down means for China relations

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Nov 18, 2022 View in browser   By Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stepped down from her historic post on Thursday, vowing to pass the torch to a new generation of leaders. | Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Andrew Desiderio and Lara Seligman For more than three decades, Nancy Pelosi has cemented her status as a staunch opponent of the Chinese government. From being chased out of Tiananmen Square in 1991 to ignoring warnings to not visit Taiwan this year, the California congresswoman has made one thing clear: No one can tell her what to do when it comes to China. "If you cannot stand up for human rights in China because of commercial interests, you lose all moral authority to speak out for it in any place," Pelosi told POLITICO in July. But Pelosi stepped down from her historic post as speaker on Thursday, vowing to pass the torch to a new generation of leaders. After a long-time antagonistic relationship with the Chinese government, how will things change? As House Minority Leader KEVIN McCARTHY sets his sights on replacing her, experts warn that even though policy toward China may not change much, relations may become even rockier than they have been. "[Initially] I suspect some in China will breathe a sigh of relief," ZACK COOPER, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told NatSec Daily. "But this will be short-lived," as McCarthy ramps up the aggressive tactics with an expected trip to Taipei in the spring. China views Taiwan as a part of its country, even though the island nation's government wants to remain independent. The trip will likely trigger a fresh round of threats from President XI JINPING's government, which warned of a "very serious situation and grave consequences" before Pelosi visited Taiwan in August. China at the time launched a series of military actions and countermeasures , including halting relations with the U.S. on issues such as climate change and military ties. President JOE BIDEN has worked somewhat successfully to repair those damaged contacts, meeting with Xi on the sidelines of the G-20 summit this week and focusing on creating a foundation for a relationship. With McCarthy in charge, though, relations between the two may strain again. Along with the trip, McCarthy plans to form a special committee to challenge China on a cornucopia of issues from trade to national security to the origins of the coronavirus. These moves will likely provoke Chinese leaders. "We are looking at a much more dangerous deterioration of relations," YUN SUN, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, told Bloomberg . But the antagonism follows in Pelosi's footsteps, a bipartisan approach toward China that she has crafted ever since she introduced a resolution condemning the execution of those who peacefully protested in Tiananmen Square in 1989. "He's imitating Nancy," former California Sen. BARBARA BOXER told NatSec Daily, referring to McCarthy's planned trip to Taiwan. At the resolution's press conference, Boxer stood beside Pelosi, who had served as a representative for only two years before introducing the legislation. Broad support of U.S. policy toward China in recent years has been a testament to Pelosi's effectiveness, Boxer said, adding that she has "shown unbelievable constant leadership on bringing human rights in China to the forefront of every foreign policy decision." "We cannot forget human rights, and that's why she's been so effective," Boxer said. "It's unusual to have that kind of unanimity, and I see unanimity here around human rights in China." The Inbox ZELENSKYY: NO 'SHORT TRUCE': Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said Russia was seeking a "short truce" with Ukraine, but he fiercely the proposal because it would simply allow Moscow's forces to regroup. His comments, delivered Friday in a prerecorded video to kick off the 2022 Halifax International Security Forum, showed a leader unwilling to pause the fighting and uninterested in preliminary peace talks. "Russia is now looking for a short truce, a respite to regain strength," he said. "Someone may call this the war's end. But such a respite will only worsen the situation." "Immoral compromises will only lead to new blood," he continued, adding that an "honest peace" can be achieved only by "the complete demolition of Russian aggression." It's unclear how formally Russia made the truce proposal — or if Moscow made it at all. Zelenskyy has made these kinds of remarks before, claiming that any effort to stop the fighting would benefit Russia more than Ukraine. Ukrainian troops currently have momentum in the war, having recently forced the Russians to withdraw from the southern city of Kherson. We've got more on the Halifax forum in The Complex section. KREMLIN WARMS TO PRISONER SWAP: Moscow hopes to make a prisoner swap with Washington to return convicted Russian arms trafficker VIKTOR BOUT, in a deal that would likely include WNBA star BRITTNEY GRINER, Reuters' GUY FAULCONBRIDGE and CALEB DAVIS report . "The Americans are showing some external activity, we are working professionally through a special channel designed for this," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister SERGEI RYABKOV was quoted as saying by state media on Friday. "Viktor Bout is among those who are being discussed, and we certainly count on a positive result." Griner was brought to a penal colony this month to serve a nine-year sentence on drug charges. The U.S. has been working to secure her release since she was detained in February, and it's been widely reported that Bout was offered for Griner's and PAUL WHELAN's release. Ryabkov also told state media that Russia is open to more high-level talks with the U.S., but not about Ukraine. The Kremlin would instead be interested in talking about "strategic stability," a term used to mean reducing the risk of nuclear war, if Washington is willing, he said. Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV also told reporters that a summit between President VLADIMIR PUTIN and Biden is "out of the question." BIDEN SAYS MBS SHOULD BE IMMUNE: The Biden administration said Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN's high office should protect him from a lawsuit over his involvement in the slaying of journalist JAMAL KHASHOGGI, the Associated Press' ELLEN KNICKMEYER and MATTHEW LEE report . The administration backed the crown prince's claim of legal immunity against a lawsuit brought by Khashoggi's fiancée and the rights group Democracy for the Arab World Now, which the journalist founded. The U.S. determination that MBS should have immunity in the case is non-binding and up to a judge to decide. It marks a major turnaround from Biden's promise to make a "pariah" out of the Middle Eastern country for the brutal killing, in which the Washington Post journalist was ambushed, murdered and dismembered in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul within hours. It's "purely a legal determination," the State Department said in a statement on Thursday, citing what it called long-standing precedent. Despite its recommendation, officials said the department "takes no view on the merits of the present suit and reiterates its unequivocal condemnation of the heinous murder of Jamal Khashoggi." LET'S MESSAGE TOGETHER: U.S. officials have been pushing to more closely coordinate messaging with allies, including Kyiv, on the missile explosion in Poland following Ukraine's insistence that Russia was behind the deadly strike, our own ERIN BANCO, NAHAL TOOSI and PAUL MCLEARY reported Thursday evening. Over the past few days, top U.S. officials have reached out to European leaders and officials in Zelenskyy's office, urging caution when speaking about what led to the explosion, according to two Western officials and a U.S. official. Zelenskyy repeatedly claimed that the missiles, which killed two people, were from Russian forces, despite intelligence suggesting they came from Ukrainian defense batteries. In a series of urgent phone calls, American officials requested that NATO allies refrain from issuing definitive statements until the completion of the investigation in Poland, one of the Western officials said. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the global national security and foreign policy scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we're featuring CHRIS MEAGHER, the Pentagon's new assistant secretary of defense for public affairs, who we featured in a Q&A last Friday. He told us his drink of choice is an old fashioned. He prefers to drink it at home, with his wife. Cheers, Chris! Read: Meagher's interview with LARA SELIGMAN IT'S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 . While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 , @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye . A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security. Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more.   Flashpoints SWEDEN CONFIRMS SABOTAGE: Swedish prosecutors confirmed that blasts at the Nord Stream pipelines in September were caused by an act of sabotage, CNN's LINDSAY ISAAC and SOPHIE TANNO reports. Investigators analyzing four holes within the pipelines found "traces of explosives" and said the area was subject to "gross sabotage." In October, Russian officials accused British navy personnel of orchestrating the attack, which U.K. officials have denied. Swedish and Danish officials have been investigating the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which have become flashpoints in Russia's war with Ukraine and Europe's recent energy challenges. LONG-RANGE MISSILE TEST: North Korea completed a successful test on Friday of an intercontinental ballistic missile designed to reach the U.S. mainland, the Associated Press' HYUNG-JIN KIM and MARI YAMAGUGHI reports. The U.S. condemned the launch, which occurred a day after the regime tested another ballistic missile, and vowed to guarantee the safety of Japan and South Korea. The launch comes about two weeks after North Korea tested another suspected ICBM unsuccessfully. In past months, Pyongyang has conducted dozens of missile tests, and the U.S. has responded with joint military drills alongside Japan and South Korea. "We again call for North Korea to stop further unlawful, destabilizing acts," Vice President KAMALA HARRIS said during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders Meeting in Bangkok. Keystrokes INCREASED CYBER POWER: The Pentagon will retain increased powers to conduct cyber operations after a feud with the State Department over which entity should have jurisdiction over certain capabilities, Cyberscoop's SUZANNE SMALLEY reports. The process was set in motion in 2018 by former national security adviser JOHN BOLTON who sought to streamline the process for approving cyber operations, which the former Trump official described as "frozen solid" at the time. The State Department isn't fond of the expanded DoD powers as it fears military prerogatives could take priority over civilian agencies and fail to consider the potential impact on human rights and diplomacy. The Complex HALIFAX FORUM KICKS OFF: The three-day Halifax International Security Forum began today, featuring newsmaker panels and private salons with NATO officials, members of Congress, defense ministers and industry bigwigs, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) highlight . Discussions will focus on the war and broader Russian threats, combating disinformation, competition in the Arctic, the global financial storm and growing concerns about energy security. Big names from the U.S. attending include Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN and a delegation led by Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), including KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-N.Y.), MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.), THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.), MARK WARNER (D-Va.), ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.), CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) and JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.). Oh, and how could we forget? That's where Alex and Heidi will be, leaving the newsletter in the hands of Matt, Lawrence and Dave today. Mwahaha. GOING THROUGH CHANGES: Boeing announced on Thursday it is consolidating its defense and space business from eight divisions into four after losing billions of dollars, Morning Defense also reports . Contributing to the loss was lowball bids for the KC-46 tanker, MQ-25 carrier refueling drone, T-7 trainer, and VC-25B Air Force One replacement. STEVE PARKER, the new COO, said the changes are meant to address "program quality and performance" and for "stabilizing our development and production programs." On the Hill FEWER FIGHTER JETS TO TURKEY: A bipartisan group of lawmakers is urging negotiators to put limits on transfers of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey in a final NDAA, throwing a wrench into Biden's plans to sell the jets to Ankara, our friends at Morning Defense write . Twenty-two lawmakers, led by Rep. CHRIS PAPPAS (D-N.H.), urged the leaders of HASC and SASC in a letter to maintain an amendment to the House-passed bill that would require the administration to certify that selling the jets to Turkey is critical to national security and that they won't be used to violate Greek airspace. "At a time when we must be promoting NATO alliance unity we should ensure that American weapons are not being used for belligerent actions within the alliance," they wrote. Broadsides AUSTRALIA STICKS WITH U.S. SUBS: Australian Prime Minister ANTHONY ALBANESE on Friday committed to continuing the country's partnership with the U.S. to build nuclear-powered submarines despite objections from France, the Associated Press' ROD McGUIRK reports. French President EMMANUEL MACRON on Thursday criticized Australia for pursuing the deal, claiming that France would have provided Australia with submarines that could be independently maintained without nuclear technology that could help avoid confrontation with China, which has repeatedly criticized the new AUKUS alliance. Albanese doesn't believe there are any hard feelings between him and Macron and acknowledged the French leader has the right to his own opinions about Canberra's partnership with the U.S. and UK. "President Macron is entitled to put forward his views, as he does in a very forthright way," Albanese said. "He's entitled to make whatever comments he wants as the leader of France." Former Australian Prime Minister SCOTT MORRISON angered Macron last year by ditching the country's submarine agreement with France in favor of partnering with the U.S. as part of AUKUS.     Transitions — Former Sen. CHRIS DODD is joining the State Department as special presidential adviser for the Americas. The new role comes after he served as special adviser for the ninth Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles this year. What to Read — TATIANA STANOVAYA, Foreign Affairs: Russia's Missing Peacemakers — LYLE MORRIS, War On The Rocks: Listen to Xi Jinping About Taiwan — CHRIS LAUDATI, National Defense Magazine: NDIA Policy Points: The Precarious State of U.S. Defense Stockpiles Monday Today — The American Enterprise Institute, 10:30 a.m.: "Europe in an Age of Division" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3:30 p.m.: "Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Dave Brown, who is concerned about the "dangerous deterioration of relations" between Alex, Matt and Lawrence. And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who always fixes our problems. A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security. Lockheed Martin is helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating our digital transformation. That means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins so you can anticipate maintenance and reduce downtime. It means deep knowledge of your missions. It means industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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