What we know and what we don’t after a wild midterm

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Nov 09, 2022 View in browser   By Charlie Mahtesian Presented by A voter with her head in her hands at a watch party as results come in. | Shaban Athuman/Richmond Times-Dispatch via AP WAITING GAME — This was supposed to be an election where Republicans made sweeping gains to win back the House. In the final days, the Senate also seemed to be moving their way, with the outside possibility of an expansive 54-seat majority. Both would have been in line with historic midterm swings. Yet as the dust settles on the election results, all those expectations have been scaled back. Control of the House and Senate remained up in the air today, with no prospect of a quick resolution. It's looking more like a narrow House GOP majority — many races remain uncalled — and a Senate so close that it might not be resolved for weeks. Here's where things stand, 24 hours after the first polls closed on Election Day, and where they're going as results continue to trickle in. THE HOUSE: A large collection of competitive House races remain uncalled — enough to make a difference in the size of a prospective GOP majority, especially if Democrats pick off a Republican seat or two. They're concentrated in the West, in Arizona, California, Nevada, Oregon and Washington state, and there are still many votes left to be counted in a number of those races. In several of those states, ballots postmarked by Election Day will be counted — meaning full results won't be available in many of those races until next week. There is also a group of individual races scattered elsewhere, photo-finish contests where nearly all of the vote is in but the candidates are separated by only a percentage point or two. Among them is GOP lightning rod Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado, who was trailing by less than 100 votes when Nightly went to press with more than 95 percent of the vote in. THE SENATE: The situation in the Senate is clearer, but not by much. At present, there are four Senate races that haven't been called: Alaska, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. Each party has 48 seats. There's no question in Alaska that a Republican will be declared the victor; it's just a question of which one. That means the party that wins two of the three remaining Senate seats will capture the majority. Democrats are best positioned in Arizona, where Sen. Mark Kelly has a 4-point advantage over Republican Blake Masters with two-thirds of the vote counted. In Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt has a 50-47 lead over Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto with 77 percent of the vote counted , though Cortez Masto can hope to pick up some ground in Las Vegas' Clark County, a traditional Democratic stronghold, where a "considerable" amount of ballots are still to be counted , according to election officials. Since neither candidate in Georgia won 50 percent of the vote, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker will advance to a Dec. 6 runoff. If Republicans prevail in Arizona or Nevada, control of the Senate will come down to that. GOVERNORS: Incumbents had a good night — especially Democratic incumbents. Despite a rough midterm environment, by this afternoon every Democratic incumbent was reelected, with one exception: Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak, whose race remained undecided today. With 77 percent of the vote in, Sisolak trailed Republican Joe Lombardo 51-46. "We had the best midterm for governors since 1986," President Joe Biden said today at a White House news conference. While Democrats flipped GOP-held governorships in Maryland and Massachusetts, two of the party's biggest stars — Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams — failed in their bids to oust incumbent Republican Govs. Greg Abbott of Texas and Brian Kemp of Georgia. The contentious open-seat Arizona race between Republican Kari Lake and Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs was the only remaining uncalled contest this afternoon. Hobbs was winning by fewer than 5,000 votes, with 67 percent of the vote in. SECRETARIES OF STATE: Two states remained undecided today in closely watched elections for chief election officials: Arizona and Nevada. In Arizona, one of the nation's most prominent election deniers, Republican Mark Finchem, trailed Democrat Adrian Fontes 52-48 with 67 percent of the vote counted. In Nevada, election denier Jim Marchant held a 49-47 lead over Cisco Aguilar with 77 percent of the vote in. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight's author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on Twitter at @PoliticoCharlie .   A message from Bank of America: As the private sector innovates aid and financing, seeking holistic solutions to neighborhood challenges is the cornerstone of the approach. Businesses, which rely on healthy communities for their own prosperity, must play a big part in driving solutions.   What'd I Miss? — Youngkin apologizes for Pelosi attack comments: Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin sent Speaker Nancy Pelosi a written apology for his comments making light of the attack on her husband Paul Pelosi, spokespeople confirmed today. Youngkin, a Republican, infuriated Democrats by saying at a campaign event that took place the same day as the Oct. 28 attack on Paul Pelosi: "There's no room for violence anywhere, but we're going to send her back to be with him in California." — Bitter GOP divisions leave abortion legal in South Carolina: Republicans in South Carolina failed to enact new abortion restrictions . GOP members of the state House and Senate were unable to agree on how far to go, almost certainly dooming the chances for any new bills to be enacted this year and leaving access to the procedure legal in the state — for now. During a conference committee meeting this morning, members of the House refused to budge on their proposal to ban abortion starting at conception with exceptions for rape, incest and if the life of the pregnant person is in danger, while Senate leadership reiterated its chamber only had the votes to prohibit the procedure starting around six weeks of pregnancy. South Carolina's most ardently anti-abortion lawmakers, who argued such a proposal was insufficiently "pro-life," still sent the bill to the Senate floor, where lawmakers voted 23-21 to table the measure. — Florida braces for major storm after Nicole strengthens into a hurricane: Just weeks after a deadly hurricane swept through the state, Florida is bracing for another major storm that has the potential to damage areas with heavy rains and destructive winds. The National Hurricane Center upgraded the storm to a hurricane at around 6 p.m. as it made landfall on the Bahamas. It had sustained winds of up to 75 mph. Gov. Ron DeSantis this morning warned Floridians to be diligent ahead of the storm and to be prepared to lose power. The storm, he said, is expected to make landfall around 1 a.m. Thursday morning.   NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS  – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID .     AROUND THE WORLD Russian soldiers in Kherson in May. | AP Photo, File ON THE BACK FOOT — Russia today said it would pull troops out of the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson , which it captured in the early days of the war — a new humiliation for Vladimir Putin, write Tristan Fielder and Sergei Kuznetsov . Russia's commander in Ukraine, General Sergei Surovikin, said on Russian state TV that it was no longer possible to keep supplying the city, situated on the banks of the Dnipro River. The retreat is a fresh blow to Moscow, as Kherson was the only regional capital Russian troops captured since the Kremlin's full-scale invasion began in February. It was one of four Ukrainian regions illegally annexed by the Russian president in late September. At the time, Putin said that the Ukrainians living in those regions "are becoming our citizens forever." In a sign of the political disarray in Moscow, foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said today that Russia was willing to hold talks with Kyiv. That's a huge comedown from demands made by the Kremlin early in the war, which would only countenance Ukraine's total surrender.   A message from Bank of America:   Nightly Number More than 155 million The number of Americans who will now live in states with legal weed . Maryland and Missouri passed legalization referendums on Tuesday, meaning there are now 21 states where anyone at least 21 years old will be able to legally possess marijuana. That marks a seismic shift since Colorado and Washington became the first states to back full legalization at the ballot box a decade ago. Radar Sweep DEATH SPIRAL — On Tuesday, the crypto exchange FTX blew up . Its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried (a large Democratic contributor) lost much of his personal wealth. The spiral, in which FTX lost almost all of its on paper value and then was acquired by rival Binance, is prompting more questions about just how real the money behind these crypto plays are. Joel Khalili breaks down what happened with FTX and crypto's future in WIRED.   DON'T MISS POLITICO'S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, "At a Crossroads: America's Defense Strategy" on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America's national security. REGISTER HERE .     Parting Image An election worker arrives with ballots to be tabulated inside the Maricopa County Recorder's Office today in Phoenix. | AP Photo/Matt York Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   A message from Bank of America: As the private sector innovates aid and financing, seeking holistic solutions to neighborhood challenges is the cornerstone of the approach. Communities across the country are increasingly managing issues that can stretch, and sometimes overwhelm, their available resources. The health crisis has amplified disparities in health care access, employment and economic opportunity for communities of color. Financial services companies are innovating new approaches to mobilize capital and provide support for the communities they serve. Through sustainable financing efforts, Bank of America is working on multiple fronts to closely tie the long-term sustainability of the communities it operates in to its global business strategy.     Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Naomi Andu @naomiandu   Follow us

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