Where the money went this year

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Nov 07, 2022 View in browser   By Madison Fernandez TOP LINE Money doesn't guarantee a win, but it certainly buys some airtime. Altogether, the congressional party committees and flagship congressional super PACs spent over $960 million on advertisements this year. Huge chunks flowed into battleground races that will determine the control of both chambers of Congress. And imminently, they'll see if that big spending pays off. Let's take a look at the big Senate spending on TV, cable, satellite, radio and digital ads from the beginning of the year through Election Day, per AdImpact: — DSCC: The Democratic party committee spent the most on the Nevada Senate race — over $10 million. It's a tight race, with recent polling showing slight leads or ties. Democratic incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican Adam Laxalt kept a busy schedule on the trail over the weekend. Arizona and Georgia saw over $9 million each from DSCC. — NRSC: Arizona topped the list for the Republicans, where the party committee put in over $9 million. Another toss-up race, Republican Blake Masters has been boosted in part by his joint campaigning with Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake. Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly got some help from top Democrats in recent days, including first lady Jill Biden and former President Barack Obama . NRSC spent over $5 million in North Carolina and more than $4 million in Georgia. — Senate Leadership Fund: Georgia's on SLF's mind, where the super PAC spent over $39 million. That makes up for Republican Herschel Walker's relatively small spending — over $13 million — but that pales in comparison to the more than $70 million Sen. Raphael Warnock has poured in on advertising. Walker was boosted this weekend by 2024 presidential prospect and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. Pennsylvania saw over $35 million from SLF, and North Carolina had over $30 million poured in. — Senate Majority PAC: The Democratic super PAC invested more in Pennsylvania — over $46 million — than any of these other groups in a single race. The heavy spending speaks to the critical nature of the seat for Democrats to fend off a Republican Senate majority, as they're favored to take control of the House. Pennsylvania was bustling over the weekend , with appearances at campaign events from President Joe Biden, Obama and former President Donald Trump. SMP also spent heavily in Nevada and Arizona, with more than $29 million in each. Moving over to House spending: — DCCC: DCCC put the most money, over $5 million, into MI-07 between incumbent Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and Republican Tom Barrett. CA-22 featuring Republican Rep. David Valadao and Democrat Rudy Salas and ME-02, where former GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin is looking to unseat Democrat Jared Golden, both saw over $4 million each from the group. — NRCC: NRCC also spent the most in MI-07 and CA-22 — notably more than DCCC, with over $6 million in both of the districts. The third-most for NRCC was VA-07, with over $5 million, where Republican Yesli Vega is looking to unseat Rep. Abigail Spanberger. — Congressional Leadership Fund: The NV-03 race between incumbent Democratic Rep. Susie Lee and Republican April Becker saw the most spending from the Republican group, with over $9 million. Continuing on the offense, CLF booked heavily in NV-01, held by Democratic Rep. Dina Titus, with over $7 million. NY-17, currently held by Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones, got bombarded with over $6 million from the group as it tries to fend off DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney. — House Majority PAC: The Democratic PAC funneled its money toward endangered incumbents, putting in over $5 million in PA-07, where Democratic Rep. Susan Wild is facing a repeat challenge from Republican Lisa Scheller. TX-28, between incumbent Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar and Republican Cassy Garcia, and NH-01, between incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas and Republican Karoline Leavitt, each saw over $4 million each. Happy Election Day eve. Deep breaths, people! Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616 . Days until the general election: 1 Days until the 2022 World Cup: 13 Days until the 2024 election: 729   NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS  – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID .     Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to  POLITICO Pro . You'll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day's biggest stories. CAMPAIGN INTEL FINAL FORECAST — The battle for the Senate is a "Toss Up," while the House is "Likely Republican." Our Steve Shepard has the final forecast update before the election . … Democrats are also defending nearly a dozen governorships that Republicans are targeting. Our Zach Montellaro has a guide to prep you with what you need to know about the gubernatorial races before tomorrow. ON THE TRAIL — It was once again a tale of two presidents on the trail yesterday. President Joe Biden stumped for Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul in Yonkers — the first presidential appearance in the city in nearly 50 years. The 11th hour flood of heavyweights has signaled rising Democratic anxiety over losing one of the party's long-established strongholds, where a Republican governor has not been elected since 2002. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump rallied in Miami for Sen. Marco Rubio. Trump held back from criticizing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, saying that the governor should be reelected even as 2024 tensions between the two are spilling over into the public. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump hit the campaign trail on Sunday. Biden was in New York stumping for Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, and Trump was in Florida for Republican Sen. Marco Rubio. | Patrick Semansky and Rebecca Blackwell/AP Photo … RELATED: "President Joe Biden has dramatically raised the stakes of the midterm elections, declaring, as part of the campaign's close, that democracy itself is on the ballot," POLITICO's Jonathan Lemire writes . "Biden himself has made the case that the stakes on Tuesday are not just about his party's ability to maintain power and further his agenda. He has argued that U.S. governance itself is at risk. … It will be a tall order for Democrats to maintain control; and it's very possible that the election deniers that Biden is warning about will soon take over critical government posts, raising even more complicated questions about the path his presidency will chart." FOLLOW THE LEADER — My colleagues on the Congress team compiled a list of five storylines you should be watching at the Capitol post-Election Day. What, you thought campaigning ended after Tuesday? "The next few weeks could deliver the biggest shakeup to House leadership since the Republican Revolution of 1994, when the GOP claimed the chamber after defeating the sitting Democratic speaker in his reelection bid. Across the Capitol, there's less uncertainty but plenty of intrigue. Depending on who wins, Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell could face the first protest votes of his career. … McConnell is nonetheless widely expected to have the support of most of the Senate GOP. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is in a similarly safe position, even if Democrats lose the chamber on Tuesday, after exceeding expectations of what his party could achieve in a 50-50 Senate. Now, whom Schumer can find to lead his campaign arm to victory with a brutal 2024 battleground map is another matter." DOWN BALLOT WATCH — "A combination of retirements, term limits, redistricting changes and primary defeats — especially among Republicans facing conservative challengers — already has driven turnover in state capitols to its highest rate in more than a decade," AP's David A. Lieb writes . "More incumbents will lose Tuesday, as voters decide nearly 6,300 state legislative races in 46 states. … This election is the first since districts were redrawn to account for population shifts noted by the 2020 census. Post-redistricting elections often see an uptick in retirements and defeats as incumbents opt against running in new areas or get matched up against each other. But this year's turnover rate — already above 26% — is ahead of the pace from the last post-redistricting election in 2012 and more than one-quarter higher than the average over the past decade." … Nationally, election deniers appeared poised to take over several secretary of state positions. Indiana might buck the trend, my colleague Adam Wren reports . POLL POSITION — "Voters often treat midterm elections as a referendum on the president and his party, which suggests that support for Democrats is on the wane, and many polling averages indicate that voters are more inclined to vote for Republicans as a result," my colleague Brittany Gibson writes about the latest POLITICO-Morning Consult poll . "The POLITICO-Morning Consult poll is an outlier on this question, showing support for Democratic congressional candidates at 48 percent, five points above support for Republican candidates." (2,005 voters, Nov. 4-5, MoE +/- 2 percentage points.) "The poll continued to show economic issues at top of mind for voters, with 78 percent saying both the economy and inflation will play a 'major role' in how they cast their ballots. By contrast, 61 percent of voters said crime would play a major role in their voting decisions this year and 57 percent said the same about abortion access." — Republican Tiffany Smiley is gaining momentum in the Washington Senate race, according to a poll conducted by Moore Information Group for the Evergreen Principles PAC , a pro-Smiley group. The poll shows Smiley and incumbent Democratic Sen. Patty Murray with 47 percent each. In October, they were tied 46-46, and in September, Murray led 48-44. (500 likely voters, Nov. 3-5, MoE +/- 4 percent.) "As we head toward Tuesday, and with the fate of the U.S. Senate hanging in the balance, Tiffany Smiley in Washington State may well be the race that tips the scales and gives control of the U.S. Senate back to Republicans," the memo says. POLITICO recently moved the race from "Likely Democratic" to "Lean Democratic." — The New Hampshire races for Senate and 1st District are too close to call, per a Granite State Poll from the University of New Hampshire . Democratic incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan leads Republican Don Bolduc 50-48. In September, she led 49-41. In NH-01, Democratic incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas leads Republican Karoline Leavitt 50-49, showing a jump in support for Leavitt from September, when Pappas led 50-43. (2,007 likely voters, Nov. 2-6, MoE +/- 2.2 percent. For NH-01: 1,043 likely voters, MoE +/- 3 percent.) THE CASH DASH — "Ronald S. Lauder, a 78-year-old cosmetics heir, philanthropist and art collector who is among the richest men in New York, has become the most prolific state political donor in memory this fall, fueling a Republican's surging candidacy for governor in one of the country's most liberal states," The New York Times' Nicholas Fandos and Dana Rubinstein write . "As a lead donor to two super PACs, he has spent more than $11 million to date trying to put Representative Lee Zeldin, a Trump-aligned Republican, in the governor's mansion. Millions of dollars more, some of it not previously reported, have gone to successful legal and public relations campaigns to stop Democrats from gerrymandering the state's congressional districts."   DON'T MISS POLITICO'S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, "At a Crossroads: America's Defense Strategy" on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America's national security. REGISTER HERE .     Presidential Big Board — The first 2024 domino falls. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) has decided that he won't run for president in 2024. Cotton has attributed his decision to family concerns, saying that a national campaign would take him away from his two young sons, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reports . CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "Billionaires Reshape Governor Races With Just 0.01% of Fortunes" ( Bloomberg )   Follow us on Twitter Steven Shepard @politico_steve Zach Montellaro @zachmontellaro Ally Mutnick @allymutnick Madison Fernandez @madfernandez616   Follow us

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