Who Biden calls, and why

A newsletter from POLITICO that unpacks essential global news, trends, and decisions.

Nov 11, 2022 View in browser   By Nahal Toosi and Ryan Heath Follow Ryan on Twitter | Follow Nahal on Twitter | Send tips and insights to rheath@politico.com As allied countries remember their war dead today — in commemorations variously known as Veterans' Day or Remembrance Day — Germany engages in a more cautious National Day of Mourning , and China holds its version of Black Friday: the world's largest shopping sale , known as Singles Day. BIDEN'S CALL COMFORT  Earlier this year, deep into a project about the U.S.-Chinese diplomatic rivalry , your co-host for today sought ways to measure President Joe Biden's engagement with other countries. This was, after all, a president who promised to have a diplomacy-first approach to foreign policy. But what's the best way to quantify a president's personal diplomatic outreach? You would think face-to-face meetings, but those are tough to count when a president runs into a slew of counterparts for seconds or minutes at summits or other events, and often meetings are behind closed doors. Also, it's a bit unfair when for much of his presidency Biden had to exercise Covid-19 caution. Eventually, I settled on counting Biden's calls with foreign leaders. I sifted through the White House's public readouts of such talks, and the results were eye-opening. Hi everyone! I'm Nahal Toosi, senior foreign affairs correspondent at POLITICO, and I'm helping Ryan Heath today. The unsurprising part of what I found was this: Europe was by far the region with whose leaders Biden held the most calls, with more than 60 one-on-one calls with counterparts. The most obvious reason is Russia's war on Ukraine. Another factor is Biden's desire to repair ties with European allies damaged during the Donald Trump years. To date, Biden has held at least 13 such bilateral calls just with Ukraine. France has gotten 10, the United Kingdom nine, and Germany eight. (Russia? Five calls, though none since its invasion on Feb. 24.) Those and others are on top of many Biden calls in which he spoke to the leaders of two or more European countries at the same time. (I was mainly interested in Biden's bilateral calls with fellow heads of state or government. However, I did include calls with people just elected to such roles and those with opposition leaders whom the U.S. sees as more legitimate than the person in power, such as in Belarus.) Here's what surprised me: Biden has held calls with only three sub-Saharan African leaders: those of South Africa, Ethiopia and Kenya. If you count North Africa — even though Washington usually lumps those countries in with the Middle East — the African total rises to five. That's because Biden has held two calls with Egyptian dictator Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, both of them due to Egypt's role in helping end fighting between Israel and Palestinian militants in 2021. African governments are used to being relatively ignored by the highest-level American officials — that's why China has done so well on the continent . But there are 54 African countries, and five calls seems low by any measure. White House response: When I showed Biden aides the data, they responded with questions like: What about face-to-face meetings Biden has held with fellow leaders? What about sideline meetings at major gatherings? They pointed out, for example, that Biden will meet African leaders in person during a summit he's hosting in December. He's also hosted some virtual summits. But bilateral calls, be they on the phone or via a screen, are the year-round fastest, easiest way for a U.S. president to reach another leader. Group diplomacy is not the same as individual attention, especially when there are dozens in a group. The odds that Biden will spend much one-on-one time with every leader who attends the African summit are low. And it's not like counting summits changes the disparity in how much attention Biden gives regions. He has sometimes attended multiple summits with European leaders in one week. In the Western Hemisphere , Biden has held 17 calls. Six were with Canada, which also got separate action on some multilateral calls involving Europe. Mexico has had three. Most Latin American countries haven't made the list. Biden did meet some of their leaders because the U.S. hosted the Summit of the Americas this year — but the next edition of the summit isn't due until 2025. There's no goodwill in silence: There's an argument that if the U.S. has nothing to talk about with a foreign country — no trade deal, no natural disaster, no war — it doesn't make sense for the president to make such calls. But the call log shows a large swathe of the world with which the White House isn't actively engaging. That approach may underestimate the power of the good will such calls can generate. Even if Biden just says "hi," it will lead the front pages in some countries. Biden could use calls as a way to reach leaders he's less likely to see in person. Instead, he often talks to the same people over and over. For instance, there are dozens of Asian countries and the U.S. needs to improve relations with many to compete with China. But the majority of the bilateral Asia calls (13 of 21) were with Japan, Australia, South Korea and India. Of the 26 calls to the Middle East and North Africa, 12 were with Israel. There are likely Biden calls that the White House never publicizes. It's hard to imagine, though, that they'd change the overall picture. He's probably not making any secret calls to Gabon. That said: Joe, if you want to call me and talk about this or anything else, I'll happily answer! WHERE TO JOIN GLOBAL INSIDER  What's next for America's defense? Post-midterms and pre-defense spending boom, POLITICO is hosting a summit Nov. 16 to dig into China and Russia strategy, weapons of the future, cyberdeterrence and space frontiers. Join us in-person in D.C. or online . The future of money: Global Insider is hosting POLITICO's first crypto summits in December. Join us Dec.1 — live in D.C. or online , or Dec. 8 in Brussels.   DON'T MISS A THING FROM THE MILKEN INSTITUTE'S MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA SUMMIT: POLITICO is partnering with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Digital Future Daily" newsletter with insider reporting and insights from the Milken Institute's Middle East and Africa Summit happening November 17-18. Hundreds of global leaders will convene, highlighting the important role connection plays in advancing global well-being. Whether you're in-person at the event or following online, sign up for this special edition newsletter for daily coverage of the event. SUBSCRIBE TODAY .     GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS AMERICA MEETS WORLD  WHAT DOES THE NEW CONGRESS THINK ABOUT THE WORLD? The U.S. Global Leadership Coalition, which brings together more than 500 corporations and non-profits to support development and American diplomacy, is sharing the results of 360 face-to-face interviews with Congressional candidates . They've also profiled the global issues positioning of all U.S. senators . U.S.— CHINA IN REPUBLICAN HOUSE CROSSHAIRS: Some of Capitol Hill's most outspoken Republican China hawks will be at the controls of key Congressional committees if Republicans flip the House. Here are the Republican names to watch: Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.), on track to be chair of the House Committee on Homeland Security, is focused on cyber, supply chains and fentanyl. Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.), the ranking member of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, sees battle ahead: open society and open scientific community vs the People's Liberation Army. Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), who would lead the House Foreign Affairs Committee, prioritizes export controls and Taiwan defense. He will be "focused like a laser on export control issues" he told my colleague Phelim Kine. So watch out for efforts to spread those controls beyond chips to other key fields like quantum computing. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), leads the Republican ranks on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce. Her top priorities: Solar and other supply chains and TikTok data. She'll work to tie left-wing green groups to "soft on China" policy approaches. BIDEN ON TOUR  ASEAN summit: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is bringing together leaders for their first in-person meeting in almost three years this weekend. Here's your guide from Singapore's Straits Times . The summit is a rallying point for a lot of diplomacy that you can't do over the phone. Cases in point: — On Thursday, Kyiv signed a peace treaty with ASEAN — Biden and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will attend. — Host Hun Sen, Cambodia's dictator, will be offering Biden and other leaders a special-edition "sleek silver timepiece with coppery-gold hands and a leather strap, with 'ASEAN Cambodia 2022'" printed on it, AP reported . G-20 — Biden plans to meet China's Xi Jinping on Monday. But there's no risk of a Biden-Putin awkward moment, the Russian president has withdrawn from the summit. CLIMATE — BIDEN VICTORY LAP TO LEAVE VULNERABLE COUNTRIES COLD: U.S. officials are fond of talking up the Inflation Reduction Act, along with infrastructure legislation, as the world's biggest investment in cutting emissions that harm the climate. But that money is for the U.S., not the world's most vulnerable countries. As Biden makes a pit stop today at the U.N. climate conference in Egypt on the way to the G-20 summit, White House officials are caught between wanting to celebrate real climate progress on Biden's watch and a fast-changing global debate. The most vulnerable countries are fed up at the lack of support they get for climate change largely caused by historical emissions from the U.S. and Europe, and are unlikely to celebrate Biden patting himself and America on the back. CLIMATE — BY THE NUMBERS  Biden is delivering $369 billion for U.S. climate action . U.S. support for vulnerable countries sits at around $3 billion, even with a doubling of U.S. contributions to a global climate-adaptation fund to $100 million, which Biden will announce in Egypt. Senior White House adviser John Podesta would like Congress to roughly quadruple that funding, to $11.4 billion in 2023. REALITY CHECK: POLITICO's Meredith Lee Hill writes in that key GOP lawmakers, who still expect to take power in the House, are eyeing their own array of climate oversight probes. Top on their list of targets: $20 billion in incentives for farmers to adopt more climate-friendly practices, passed in the Inflation Reduction Act. Republicans argue the programs aren't targeted enough and amount to executive overreach at the expense of other federal efforts to help U.S. farmers and families amid record inflation and fertilizer costs. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack is not deterred — he's extending the administration's approach into a U.S. and United Arab Emirates joint effort to propel "transformative climate action in the agriculture sector in all countries" (UAE will host the 2023 U.N. climate conference) and a fund to support fertilizer innovations around the world. HAITI — LAW AND ORDER MELTDOWN TESTS BIDEN'S DIPLO MOJO: What's a democratic government to do when a near neighbor is spiraling into political, security and humanitarian crisis thanks to violent gangs filling a power vacuum left after the assassination of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse ? Washington wants a multinational security force to stabilize the country. Biden wants to avoid the U.S. taking the lead — but he's having trouble convincing allies to pitch in, reports Nahal . IRAN — DIGITAL PROTESTS, REAL WORLD DEATH PENALTY: As regime pushback spreads online, Iranian courts are set to up the real world consequences for activists, at the urging of lawmakers. Saman Yasin, a Kurdish artist and rapper, is facing execution: charged with waging war against God after posting support for anti-regime protesters on his social media channels, including Instagram . Next in line could be Taraneh Alidoosti, an actress from the Oscar-winning Iranian-language film The Salesman , posted a picture on Instagram of herself with her hair on full display, gaining 1.4 million likes . COP27'S PR DISASTER: Since Wednesday's Global Insider, you can add sewage flowing through the streets of the conference venue to the list of problems facing delegates. One Global Insider reader had enough and decided to leave the conference early: "Trying to get your shuttle van to leave is literally like Hotel California. You can check out but you can never leave," she said. CHINA CORNER  CHINA'S CANADA ELECTION INTERFERENCE: A bombshell story published by Global News alleges the Chinese government attempted to interfere in the 2019 Canadian election by funding "at least 11 candidates" from both of the country's biggest parties, the Liberals and Conservatives, from its Toronto consulate. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, a liberal, addressed the claims at a press conference, accusing China of "aggressive games" around the election. Former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole previously claimed that Chinese foreign interference could have played a role in the defeat of as many as nine Conservatives in the 2021 election. Trudeau has not announced a policy response. GERMANY TO CHINA: DON'T TOUCH OUR CHIPS. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck formally blocked Silex — a Swedish subsidiary of China's Sai Microelectronics — from buying a German semiconductor plant owned by chipmaker Elmos, saying the country had to protect key industries from potential security threats. The German government also prevented a Chinese investor from buying Bavaria-based ERS Electronic. TECH CORNER  CRYPTO GROWING PAINS: The beleaguered crypto exchange FTX has not only shriveled in value this week, now its assets are frozen in The Bahamas, where it is headquartered . In the U.S., the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission are also investigating the company . Meanwhile, the EU has begun early-stage planning for a continent-wide crypto tax . France's global push for online child safety: French President Emmanuel Macron launched a Children Online Protection Laboratory to shield minors from harmful internet content which will bring companies and advocates together to improve and spread the most effective practices among them.   Tune in as international security leaders from democracies around the world discuss key challenges at the 14th annual Halifax International Security Forum live from Nova Scotia. As an official media partner, POLITICO will livestream the conversation beginning at 3 p.m. on November 18. The full three-day agenda is here .     GLOBETROTTERS PARTYING: Café Milano will celebrate 30 years as a Washington social institution tonight. The place has seen a lot of highs — and high-profile transactions. If you didn't snag an invite, check out POLITICO Playbook on Saturday for the rundown. PASSED: Bao Tong, the most senior Communist Party official jailed for supporting student protesters killed in Tiananmen Square in 1989, died Wednesday. He was 90. SPEECHLESS: That moment when you realize you have started to read the wrong speech … U.N. Secretary General António Guterres proves it can happen to anyone. Let's hope he was one of the lucky ones to get lunch at COP27. FEUDING: When the leaders of the world's most powerful countries meet at the G-20 summit in Bali next week, don't expect the European Union to present a united front. Staff of the bloc's top two officials — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel — are under strict instructions to keep them apart. Meet the odd couple running the European Union . Thanks to editor Heidi Vogt, Meredith Lee, Karl Mathiesen, Phelim Kine, Stuart Lau, Daniel Lippman and producer Carley Welch. SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: D.C. Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | Paris Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | EU Confidential | D.C. Influence | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Direct | Berlin Bulletin | Living Cities   Follow us on Twitter Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan   Follow us

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings This email was sent to rouf@idiot.cloudns.cc by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA Please click here and follow the steps to unsubscribe.