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America's with us or against us Iran moment

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Dec 09, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Ryan Heath

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Follow Ryan on Twitter | Send tips and insights to rheath@politico.com

U.S. ATTEMPT TO EJECT IRAN FROM U.N. BODY FACES ROUGH RIDE

In the aftermath of Iran's first execution of a protester who participated in protests against the death of a young woman detained by Iran's "morality police" for allegedly violating laws that require headscarves and otherwise modest dress, the battle over Tehran's policies is moving to the United Nations arena.

But a U.S.-led effort to kick Iran off the U.N.'s 45-member Commission on the Status of Women — inspired by a push from Iranian and other women activists — is facing a rough ride.

" One day it's Iran, the next day it could be you ." That's how Richard Gowan from International Crisis Group sums up the hesitation among some U.N. members around whether to support the U.S. resolution, Nahal Toosi and I reported overnight.

While many countries loathe Iran's treatment of women, they're also uncomfortable with the U.S. dictating who's deserving of U.N. panel memberships.

America's detractors around next week's vote fall into three camps: those who felt left out of discussions, those who say it seems arbitrary, and those who worry they'll be the next U.S. targets.

That creates a marked difference between this vote and several successful efforts led by the U.S. to isolate Russia at the United Nations since it invaded Ukraine in February, including suspending Moscow from the U.N. Human Rights Council .

A draft of the tightly worded resolution to boot Iran from the commission, obtained by POLITICO, accuses Tehran of "administering policies flagrantly contrary to the human rights of women and girls" including "through the use of lethal force."

Iran's delegation to the United Nations has sent a letter to U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres and other senior U.N. officials decrying what it termed an "illegal" U.S. effort to push it off the commission.

 

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CATCH UP WITH GLOBAL INSIDER

Ryan interviewed U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith live on stage Wednesday night. Watch here .

Smith said NATO's inclusion of China in the alliance's new strategic concept is not a hedge against Taiwan becoming the next Ukraine, but a broader recognition of China as a strategic threat. "We've got to move from assessing the challenge to addressing it," she said.

On Ukraine's request for long-range missiles from the U.S. (the Biden administration has been reluctant to give Kyiv the capability to attack Russia on Russian soil) she said: "Could it evolve in coming months? Perhaps."

Smith said she is a big fan of NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg but wouldn't commit to backing a second extension of his term, which expires in September 2023.

ARAB IDENTITY AND THE WORLD CUP

There's been plenty of global discussion in recent months about reputation and identity in the Arab world. World Cup hosts Qatar spent up to $300 billion to relaunch their global image via the tournament. Saudi Arabia is also spending billion/s?/ to launder its reputation through sports, creating distractions from its treatment of women and assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. And Iran is facing domestic and international backlash over its morality laws.

Next up: the Moroccan national soccer team, POLITICO's Joseph Gedeon writes Global Insider. After an iconic victory that made them Africa's first World Cup quarter-finalists in 12 years — is sparking a new debate. After their victory Tuesday, the team gathered around an outstretched flag for a team photo. But it wasn't the Moroccan flag the squad waved — they instead shared the spotlight with a place and cause near and dear to the pan-Arab world: Palestine .

The Moroccans weren't alone: Palestinian banners, flags and gear could be seen floating through the stands at this match and other stadiums, too, throughout the tournament.

The notable presence, while not a surprise in the Arab world, especially given the heightened Palestinian conflict with Israel, flies in the face of arguments from some in the West that support support for the Palestinians cause is dwindling.

Former Trump presidential advisor Jared Kushner , who was spotted at one of the games in Qatar, touted in his memoir that the normalization between Israel and five Muslim-majority countries — including Morocco — was among the greatest Middle East peace accomplishments and a sign of the region moving on from the Israel-Palestine conflict. Many in the Arab world clearly disagree.

"I definitely think something unique is happening, this kind of unity and hope within the region," Morad Fareed , a former player on the 2006 Palestinian national football team that played a World Cup qualifier, told Joseph.

TRENDING IN EUROPE — HEAT TOURISM

The most surprising conversations Global Insider has had in Brussels this week are around home heating.

It's no surprise that heating bills have skyrocketed in 2022, given Russia's war in Ukraine has upended Europe's energy mix. But it's a shock to hear people talk about it every time they meet or gather at an office coffee machine.

Here's a sample of comments from Global Insider's network, about how the European political and media class is grumbling and gossiping:

"We took the kids to Center Parc (a leisure center) last week. We were reveling in basically getting free heat for the day."

"People can't move. They're literally staying in miserable places and in miserable relationships. My sister stayed with her boyfriend because he didn't want to leave their apartment and start a new energy contract."

"It's actually (relatively) more affordable to go to a hotel or restaurant now, because you're saving a couple hours or a night on your heating bill."

"My monthly bill went from $100 a month to $550. It's life-changing, I was sickened when it happened."

"Every single meeting I have: people complain about their bills. We're all sitting here freezing at night because we just don't want to turn the heat on. I bought my girlfriend a big wooly sweater for her birthday last week. It was kind of a joke, but kinda not."

"My cleaning lady got a bill for $2,000. She said, 'I can't pay, so I am just not going to pay it.'"

"The only people who haven't got sticker shock are the ones who haven't had their contracts renegotiated yet."

MUSK INVITES EU OFFICIALS IN TO AUDIT TWITTER

Brussels bureaucrats are headed stateside to audit Twitter, after owner Elon Musk accepted an offer from Thierry Breton, the EU's internal market commissioner, for the official to pre-audit Twitter ahead of new EU content moderation rules that come into force in February.

That's according to Breton, who has threatened to shut the platform down in Europe if Musk doesn't comply with the EU's rules. The Frenchman, who spoke with Musk last week, told POLITICO that Musk is willing to apply the EU's content moderation rules — known as the Digital Services Act — to Twitter users around the world.

Now read this: Derek Robertson spoke to military analyst John Robb about Twitter and the future of civilization .

GERMANS ON THE VERGE OF A NERVOUS BREAKDOWN

That weird German coup plot? It wasn't some version of the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, writes Matthew Karnitschnig , it was more like a Monty Python sketch .

The alleged ringleader was 71-year-old Prince Heinrich XIII Reuß , "and his alleged co-conspirators, a number of them retirees, assembled a formidable arsenal that, according to police, included at least one crossbow, a slingshot, swords, as well as hunting rifles of unclear vintage and pistols," Karnitschnig noted dryly. He added that while the group "might have ended up killing people, the suggestion that it could have threatened the stability of the EU's most populous country is absurd … the alleged conspiracy was even too crazy for the Russians, who appear to have passed on the offer to collaborate."

But the German reaction is deeply rooted: Ever since the end of World War II, Germans have lived according to the motto "Wehret den Anfängen" (resist the beginnings), and in true German style, most take it very literally.

CHINA THREATENS BELGIUM … AGAIN : Chinese diplomats may have failed in their previous attempt to blackmail Belgian politicians — but that's not gonna discourage them from giving their sledgehammer diplomacy another try.

Beijing is pressuring the Belgian parliament to change an upcoming resolution on "the growing threat toward Taiwan," according to a letter seen by POLITICO's Barbara Moens. In the letter, the Chinese ambassador to Belgium Cao Zhongming warns Els Van Hoof, chair of the foreign affairs committee who initiated the resolution, not to "play with fire" on the Taiwan question as that could impact Beijing's relationship with Brussels.

The letter comes after an earlier diplomatic dispute, in which China demanded that Belgian Foreign Affairs Minister Hadja Lahbib "retract" an interview during which she warned about problems with Beijing's involvement in European ports.

PERU LOSES A PRESIDENT … AGAIN: Pedro Castillo is in police custody after trying to seek refuge at the Mexican embassy in Lima, and is set to face charges of rebellion .

Just 24 hours ago, the former president was facing an impeachment vote by the opposition-controlled Congress, and announced he was dissolving the legislative body.

It was a move swiftly and widely denounced as a coup and Congress instead voted to remove him from office.

Vice President Dina Boluarte was sworn in as his successor. In theory she will govern until July 2026, but that will depend on defying recent political history in Peru, which has now had five presidents in the last five years.

 

POLITICO AT CES 2023 : We are bringing a special edition of our Digital Future Daily newsletter to Las Vegas to cover CES 2023. The newsletter will take you inside the largest and most influential technology event on the planet, featuring every major and emerging industry in the technology ecosystem gathered in one place. The newsletter runs from Jan. 5-7 and will focus on the public policy related aspects of the event. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of CES 2023.

 
 
GLOBETROTTERS

KLEPTOWATCH

U.S. SANCTIONS ERDOĞAN CONFIDANT AFTER POLITICO REPORT: Sitki Ayan led a sanctions-evasion network that facilitated the sale of "hundreds of millions of dollars" worth of oil for Iran's Quds Force, a paramilitary affiliate of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, U.S. Treasury said Thursday, hours after POLITICO published an investigation into Ayan's dealings .

ROYAL RICHES: "A stunning 28,000 percent surge" in the stock of International Holding Co. helped Bloomberg wealth reporter Devon Pendleton pin down the Al Nahyan family fortune to at least $300 billion. "That (conservative) figure makes the Abu Dhabi royals the world's richest family, exceeding even the Waltons, owners of Walmart." The Al Nahyan family wealth includes "superyachts, huge swaths of London, a dozen or so palaces and stakes in Rihanna's lingerie line and Elon Musk's SpaceX. But it's IHC's cryptic rise, to a valuation that exceeds McDonald's and Nike, that's the foundation of the fortune."

MOVES

Guy Ryder is now U.N. Under-Secretary-General for Policy, having previously served as executive director of the International Labour Organization.

Veronika Melkozerova has joined POLITICO as our Ukraine-based reporter.

 

LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today .

 
 
BRAIN FOOD

LONG READ: Harry and Meghan Are Playing a Whole Different Game , writes Helen Lewis

SHORT READ: How Estonia is helping Ukraine take on Russian cyber threats , by Maggie Miller

Thanks to editor Heidi Vogt, Jakob Hanke, Joseph Gedeon and producer Hannah Farrow.

SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: D.C. Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | Paris Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | EU Confidential | D.C. Influence | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Direct | Berlin Bulletin | Living Cities

 

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