China Watcher 2023 Predictions: Revving up for Rabbit Year

Presented by the Council on Foreign Relations: What's next in U.S.-China relations.

Dec 22, 2022 View in browser   By Phelim Kine Presented by U.S. Postal Service Hi, China Watchers. This is our final edition of 2022 and the New Year (followed by the start of Chinese Year of the Rabbit in late January) is just around the corner. We're reading the tea leaves— via the input of some of the sharpest China hands around — to provide savvy predictions about what to expect in U.S.-China relations in 2023. We'll also spill on an illuminating discussion between iconic Chinese pro-democracy activist Wei Jingsheng and former deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger and parse Chinese state media's Covid alternate reality. And since Dec. 31 marks the third anniversary of Beijing alerting the World Health Organization of "cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology in Wuhan" that we now know as Covid-19, we profile a book that calls the possible circumstances of the disease's origins "the worst scientific scandal in history." Let's get to it. — Phelim PROGRAMMING NOTE: We'll be off next week for the holidays but back to our normal schedule on Thursday, Jan. 5. Happy holidays, China Watcher subscribers!  圣诞快乐，新年快乐!   A message from the Council on Foreign Relations: China has poured billions of dollars into influencing news coverage all over the world. A new book by Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations analyzes China's attempts to become a media, information, and influence superpower, seeking for the first time to shape the domestic politics, local media, and information environments of the United States, East Asia, parts of Europe, and the broader world.   China Watcher's all-star cast of expert contributors submitted their predictions for what lies ahead in U.S.-China relations in 2023. Responses have been edited for clarity and length.  THE COVID FACTOR   "The determinant for US-China relations in 2023 will rest on Beijing, not D.C. As China makes a rather sudden reversal from zero-Covid to living with Covid, we don't know how much that will mean people dying from Covid and how public opinion and panic may shift as a result. The bilateral relationship will depend on how well Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING manages his new approach to the pandemic. There may well be another whiplash of a reversal and fresh lockdowns if too many people are dying in hospitals. Or many Chinese may get sick but not as many fatally. Either way, what happens domestically determines how Xi engages internationally." — MELISSA K. CHAN, former China-based correspondent for Al-Jazeera now reporting from Germany.  TAIWAN "Both countries are free of major domestic political events next year, such as elections or a CCP Party Congress, which presumably gives the two countries some space to improve their relations without the interference from domestic politics. However, the reconciliation will be subject to events out of either leaders' control, such as new House Speaker KEVIN MCCARTHY's expected trip to Taiwan. That will impose additional stress on U.S.-China relations and will require wisdom from the two leaders to carefully navigate." — YUN SUN, director of the China program at the Stimson Center. DIPLOMATIC INFLUENCE DUEL  "Xi is taking a more pragmatic approach to stabilize the U.S.-China relationship, in the hope that this will help secure China's continued growth and rise. In the meantime, he is clearly embarking on an ambitious, explicit and large-scale international campaign to gradually erode the influence and popularity of the U.S. predominance in the international system. China's diplomatic focus will be to expand its influence in the rest of the world, in the Global South countries particularly, but also in Europe to undermine President JOE BIDEN's administration's effort to rebuild American power through stronger alliances." — TONG ZHAO, senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and visiting research scholar at Princeton University.  BEIJING CHARM OFFENSIVE "U.S.-China relations will probably stabilize somewhat in early 2023 given Xi's ongoing charm offensive, one aimed at repairing Beijing's badly damaged reputation without altering any of its malign behavior. While disagreements over Taiwan, tech and trade will dominate the dynamic, Xi will benefit greatly from the breathing room afforded by the Biden administration's shifting focus from containment to stability maintenance. Over time, Washington's perceived passivity could lead China to ramp-up its aggressive sub-crisis maneuvering, with an eye towards influencing Taiwan's 2024 election." — CRAIG SINGLETON, senior China Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. CLIMATE   "U.S.-China climate change cooperation is poised to see a resurgence in the New Year. Even the business community now recognizes the value of climate cooperation, with the U.S.-China Business Council honoring Chinese climate minister XIE ZHENHUA, along with Energy Foundation China President & CEO ZOU JI, at its annual Gala in Washington earlier this month. Restrictions that had been placed on the US-China Climate Working Group last August were lifted at the presidential summit in Bali, greenlighting official bilateral engagement during COP27 and signaling that climate change is still an area where both countries perceive benefit from cooperation." — JOANNA LEWIS, associate professor at Georgetown University and an expert on China's climate policy. HUMAN RIGHTS  "From the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act to the Sitong Bridge and other courageous protesters to puncturing the Chinese government's expectations of impunity at the United Nations, 2022 showed that it's a bad idea to bet against human rights. In 2023 the U.S. will not just work towards an investigation into and accountability for the Chinese government's grave international crimes against Uyghurs and others. It will also temper its expectations for cooperation across the relationship accordingly in this post-zero-Covid policy, post-20th Party Congress, post-Xi-Biden 'normal' meeting. There's only so much you can hope to accomplish with a government committing crimes against humanity inside China and human rights abusesabroad." — SOPHIE RICHARDSON, China director at Human Rights Watch. CHINA PROTEST POTENTIAL  "The zero-Covid protests may have ended for the moment. But I think the #whitepaperrevolution touched upon deeper systemic issues affecting young people in China, including deflated wages, fewer job opportunities and a winnowing of acceptable forms of fun and entertainment. While I do not know what their activism will look like, social movements tend to have a deep sense of historical memory; I would anticipate that the kind of activism we saw in November and December of 2022 will impact how young people continue to make their voices heard, and something that we in the US should pay attention to." — GINA TAM , assistant professor of East Asian history at Trinity University in San Antonio, Texas.  INNOVATION VS. ANTI-ESPIONAGE "2022 brought an end to the [Department of Justice's] China Initiative but not to concerns about how bias can infect efforts to protect the US's competitiveness in science and technology. In 2023, I expect similar proposals to this year's rejected amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act that would have enhanced scrutiny of Chinese researchers and escalated criminal penalties for research violations. But I also have faith in the perseverance of voices in academia, civil society and government to advocate for a path that protects national security while fostering an inclusive environment for the talent needed to fuel innovation in the United States." — MAGGIE LEWIS, a Seton Hall University law professor and expert on U.S.-China legal issues   A message from the Council on Foreign Relations:   TRANSLATING WASHINGTON — POTTINGER, WEI JINGSHENG TALK CHINA'S FUTURE: Former deputy national security adviser MATT POTTINGER sat down recently with veteran exiled Chinese democracy activist WEI JINGSHENG to discuss the potential fragility of Chinese President XI JINPING's hold on power — along with the dangers of U.S. corporate complicity with rising authoritarianism. "If the U.S. continues to choose business interests and tolerate authoritarianism, be it Chinese Communist Party or Saudi Arabia…global democracy will inevitably wane," Wei warned. Read the full interview in POLITICO Magazine here.  — STATE FRETS OVER COVID VARIANT THREAT: The State Department is concerned about the potential for China's widening Covid outbreak to fuel the creation of dangerous new variants. "Any time the virus is spreading…it has the potential to mutate and to pose a threat to people everywhere," State Department spokesperson NED PRICE said on Monday. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson MAO NING responded by saying that China's Covid response "serves the interests of the vast majority of the Chinese people." — FORWARD OPERATING BASE SOMALILAND?: U.S. concerns about China's geostrategic footprint in Africa gave the self-declared independent republic of Somaliland an item in the $847 billion National Defense Authorization Act that the Senate passed last week. The NDAA amendment introduced by Rep. CHRIS SMITH (R-N.J.) requires the State Department to issue an annual report on the possibility of formal U.S.-Somaliland ties and "opportunities for collaboration on regional security issues." That reflects Somaliland's success in branding itself a pro-U.S. and pro-Taiwan bulwark against expanding Chinese influence in the Horn of Africa. In Case You Missed It…. — STATE LAUNCHES NEW 'CHINA HOUSE': The Biden administration on Friday launched its new Office of China Coordination tasked to bolster the U.S. government's ability to decipher and counter Beijing's growing global diplomatic influence. The office, known informally as "China House," replaces the State Department's China Desk and aims to eliminate bureaucratic silos by creating a central hub to share information and shape policy on China. Chinese state media Global Times opined on Sunday that China House will "hype the so-called China threat theory, in a bid to contain China." Read my and NAHAL TOOSI's full story here. Hot from the China Watchersphere — WTO: DON'T LABEL HK PRODUCTS 'CHINA':  The World Trade Organization on Wednesday ruled in favor of Hong Kong's challenge to a Trump-era move to label the territory's exports as originating from China. That decision reflected a WTO recognition of "the U.S.' despicable intent and ulterior motives," Hong Kong's secretary for commerce and economic development, ALGERNON YAU, said in a statement. The spokesperson for the U.S. Trade Representative's office, ADAM HODGE, called the ruling "flawed" and said that the Biden administration will ignore it. — GUATEMALA'S INTERESTING INVITATION FOR TAIWAN: Guatemala will host a summit in March of Taiwan's 14 diplomatic allies. The Guatemalan ambassador to Taiwan, OSCAR ADOLFO PADILLA LAM, on Tuesday invited Taiwan's President TSAI ING-WEN to co-host the event. Tsai hasn't replied to Lam's offer. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson MAO NING responded by accusing Tsai's government of "political manipulation." — CHINA'S COVID SURGE SHUTTERS EMBASSY OPERATIONS: The Chinese government's abandonment of its draconian zero-Covid strategy has curtailed U.S. embassy services in the country. "Due to the operational impacts caused by the surge of Covid-19 infections across China, U.S. Embassy Beijing and U.S. Consulate General Shanghai are providing passport and emergency citizen services only," a U.S. embassy statement said last week.  TRANSLATING CHINA Twitter — CHINA'S STATE MEDIA COVID ALTERNATE REALITY: Foreign media reporting of the impact of China's Covid surge offers grim reading. Crematoriums overwhelmed by the volume of presumed victims of Covid, allegations of official underreporting of fatalities and critical shortages of fever-reducing medications. The ruling Chinese Communist Party's media arm has a ready response to that drumbeat of bad news. And it's a sunny narrative that depicts the country's Covid surge as a mild temporary inconvenience tempered by good governance rather than the result of a sudden reversal of Xi's signature zero-Covid policy. What Death Toll? Despite anecdotal evidence of a surge in Covid-related deaths since the government relaxed its infection mitigation controls on Dec. 7, Chinese government data shows that there were only a total of seven Covid deaths recorded on Monday and Tuesday. It also shows no such fatalities the prior two weeks. Expect those low numbers to persist after the government announced Wednesday that it is only recognizing respiratory failure or pneumonia as Covid-related causes of death. Innovation and Control   The Chinese government is eliding shortfalls in official efforts over the past three years to adequately vaccinate its vulnerable elderly population by trumpeting a mass vaccination campaign targeting that age group. And state media is ignoring China's long standing deficit in intensive care units to instead hail hospitals' efforts to expand ICU capacity on the fly. Chinese political commentator HAN YANG tweeted on Monday that state media are telling "a heart-warming tale of people across the country sharing flu medicine with each other," rather than dwelling on the shortage of medicines needed to treat fever and other Covid symptoms. Meanwhile the government has spun its move to lift mandatory testing rules – making it impossible to track the outbreak's severity — as an opportunity to requisition ubiquitous urban testing booths as "consultation rooms for fever patients." The Covid Economic Dividend  Despite the multiple projections of more than one million Covid fatalities in China over the next year due to inadequate government preparation, government officials and state media are arguing Covid is an economic boon. "China's improved anti-Covid measures a booster dose to global recovery," the spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, D.C., LIU PENGYU, tweeted last week. State news agency Xinhua declared on Wednesday that the rollback in the zero-Covid policy had helped to "inject optimism into China-EU trade." Xinhua pointed to E.U.-China trade data ending in October - weeks before the government rolled back zero-Covid – to back that claim. It's Almost Over Although China's outbreak is just gathering steam, state media says the worst will soon be over. "The overall epidemic situation is controllable and a return to full normalcy can be expected by spring," the state media China Daily reported on Monday. A prominent cheerleader for that view is HU XIJIN, a nationalist firebrand and government-backed Twitter agitator who tweeted last week that he had tested positive for the virus. A day later he reported that his fever had eased and that he was hopeful of "returning to normal life." Hu credited government "epidemic prevention" for that outlook and boasted that China's Covid death rate "will definitely be much lower than that of the U.S." HEADLINES New York Times "How Bots Pushing Adult Content Drowned Out Chinese Protest Tweets" Deutsche Welle: "China's official Covid-19 numbers 'absurdly misleading" SCMP: "Normally bellicose China's meek response to U.S. chip restrictions raises eyebrows" HEADS UP — RUSSIAN MEDIA: XI TO MEET PUTIN: Russian business newspaper Vedomosti reported last week that Xi will meet with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN by the end of December. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson WANG WENBIN said he had "no information to offer" on a possible meeting. Meanwhile, Chinese and Russian naval units began several days of joint military exercises in the East China Sea on Wednesday. That cooperation "makes it clear [China's] still investing in close ties with Russia," State Department spokesperson NED PRICE said on Monday. U.S. NATO ambassador JULIANNE SMITH piled on by warning that Beijing and Moscow are "sharing a toolkit" to undermine the alliance. Are the two embattled authoritarians cooking up a holiday season surprise upgrade of their notorious "no limits" partnership? Stay tuned. One Book, Three Questions Hurst Publishing  The Book: Made in China: Wuhan, Covid and the Quest for Biotech Supremacy  The Author: JASPER BECKER is a former longtime Beijing-based foreign correspondent and author.  Becker's book argues — based on publicly available evidence due to the Chinese government's refusal to allow a thorough independent probe — that Covid-19 may have emerged as the result of a leak from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, in 2019. Responses have been edited for length and clarity. What is the most important takeaway from your book? Don't be surprised if we find evidence that China's bioweapons programme is behind its reckless pursuit of biotech supremacy at Wuhan. People are still too scared to talk about this in public but these dangerous bio-engineering gene altering experiments are all dual use – and scientists all know it. What was the most surprising thing you learned while researching and writing this book? Just how plain crazy some of these "rational" scientists are. Why anyone in the U.S. science community figured it was a sensible idea to do this research in the first place – search out dangerous unknown viruses in the wild, bring them back to a major city, and then experiment on them to make them more contagious for humans – and with elementary lab safety – is beyond me. And how crazy do you have to be to insist on doing this China of all places– with its record of secrecy, feeble safety regulations, censorship, human rights abuses, intellectual property theft? Why did they ever think this wouldn't go catastrophically wrong? I am not surprised they have tried every trick in the book to cover this up. It is the worst scientific scandal in history. What does your book tell us about the trajectory and future of U.S.-China relations? Let's face it, Xi Jinping is the chief cause of the deterioration of bilateral relations. He acts as if whatever he does, the U.S. business community will bail him out. It always has done but like Putin he has overreached himself. My guess is that most Americans believe SARS-2 came out of a Chinese lab — despite what experts like Dr. Fauci say. No politician can ignore this public sentiment or the weakening trust in scientific authority.The best outcome is that hard proof emerges that China really did cause the pandemic because it will bring the roof down on Xi Jinping's era and perhaps the CCP itself.  Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com. Thanks to: Heidi Vogt, Matt Kaminski, Nahal Toosi and digital producer Andrew Howard. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week's items? Email us at chinawatcher@politico.com.   A message from the Council on Foreign Relations: As China ascends toward great power status, many observers have focused on its economic growth and expanding military power. Most viewed China's ability to project "soft power" through its media campaigns as quite limited and its ability to wield influence within the domestic politics of other countries as nonexistent. But a new book by Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations, Beijing's Global Media Offensive, makes clear that China has made dramatic progress on both fronts. The book focuses on how this is playing out in the United States, where Beijing has become the biggest spender on foreign influence activities, and in China's immediate neighborhood—Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Australia, Japan, and New Zealand—as well as in Europe and other parts of the world. The book is an authoritative account of how this sophisticated and multipronged campaign is unfolding, providing a window into China's attempts to make itself an information and influence superpower.     Follow us

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