How Biden dodged the sophomore slump

The power players, latest policy developments, and intriguing whispers percolating inside the West Wing.

Dec 19, 2022 View in browser   By Eli Stokols, Alex Thompson and Lauren Egan Welcome to POLITICO's West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration. With help from Allie Bice.   Send tips | Subscribe here| Email Alex | Email Eli | Email Lauren They say it's not how you start but how you finish. Consider where President JOE BIDEN was at the end of his first year in office in 2021: He had passed a massive Covid-19 relief bill less than two months in and notched a bipartisan win with an infrastructure overhaul — but that summer's disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan knocked him off course. Then, just days before Christmas, Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) derailed his big domestic spending package with investments in climate and bolstering the social safety net. Twelve months later, it's a completely different story. While Biden's second year got off to a slow start, it is ending at what is — to this point — the high water mark of his presidency. "Biden's biggest problem in 2021 was that people thought he couldn't get things done. And then he got a bunch of things done," JOHN ANZALONE , Biden's 2020 campaign pollster, told West Wing Playbook. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, Biden has led a unified transatlantic alliance committed to defending the country. After enacting more bipartisan laws to boost semiconductor manufacturing, strengthen gun safety laws and improve health care for veterans, Biden signed a scaled-down version of his domestic spending bill that ultimately included the country's biggest ever climate investment after Manchin finally struck a deal with Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER. In November, Democrats averted the usual midterm wipeout, narrowly losing the House but gaining a seat in the Senate. December has already seen Biden make same-sex marriage the law of the land, and an omnibus spending package is likely to land on his desk before year's end. In a memo circulated to administration allies Monday and first scooped by CNN's PHIL MATTINGLY and MJ LEE, Biden's long-time aide MIKE DONILON acknowledged the Supreme Court's rollback of abortion rights in June and the extremism of countless GOP candidates molded in the image of former President DONALD TRUMP were key factors in the midterm results. "But what hasn't been fully reported on — or fully understood — is how important a role the achievements and the agenda of the president and the Democrats played in the midterms," Donilon wrote. Biden and top aides took a lot of crap in October from nervous consultants, pollsters and pundits questioning why the president focused so much on his accomplishments — including in this newsletter from STAN GREENBERG, who called all the bragging about legislative wins Biden's "worst performing message." So you can understand all the football-spiking and memo-writing in that context. But Democrats' legislative accomplishments were a factor in them holding on in so many frontline races. Anzalone pointed to his recent post-election polling of the top 50 swing districts for AARP. As Biden and Democrats spent the final month of the campaign touting how the Inflation Reduction Act would lower prescription drug costs for seniors, voters 65 and older went from preferring Republicans on the generic ballot by 10 points to a three-point edge for Democrats. "That's two cycles in a row that Joe Biden kept seniors dead even and we narrowly won them this year," Anzalone said. "People don't see how much direct mail gets sent to seniors but they read it all, so it's really important to have those accomplishments on prescription drugs and insulin." Even with shockingly poor Republican candidates and the Dobbs backlash, Democrats still needed a positive case to make on the economy to swing voters, Anzalone said. "Late deciders usually go 80 percent to the opposition party. This year, they were dead even." Of course, it's not how you start but how you finish — and 2024 is still political light years away. Although the year-end triumphalism seemingly gives momentum to Biden's likely reelection bid, aides note they'd likely be celebrating such a run of accomplishments regardless of whether a campaign was on the horizon. In his memo, Donilon noted the popularity of the component pieces of the IRA and other new laws — pieces Biden plans to spend much of the next year touting as they take shape by drawing attention to factory groundbreakings, new bridge openings and the like. How much mileage Biden can get out of 2022's accomplishments in 2023 and beyond remains to be seen. But Democrats inside the White House and out are used to the doubts, and increasingly confident about defying them. "There seems to be a consistent theme: Political observers doubt President Biden and then he defies expectations and delivers," said BEN LABOLT, a Democratic operative and veteran of the Obama White House. "The Biden agenda has proven popular at the polls, and the president now heads into 2023 with a significantly united Democratic Party and the wind as his back." MESSAGE US — Are you a recipient of MIKE DONILON's memo? We want to hear from you. Email us at westwingtips@politico.com.   A NEW POLITICO PODCAST: POLITICO Tech is an authoritative insider briefing on the politics and policy of technology. From crypto and the metaverse to cybersecurity and AI, we explore the who, what and how of policy shaping future industries. We're kicking off with a series exploring darknet market places, the virtual platforms that enable actors from all corners of the online world to traffic illicit goods. As malware and cybercrime attacks become increasingly frequent, regulators and law enforcement agencies work different angles to shut these platforms down, but new, often more unassailable marketplaces pop up. SUBSCRIBE AND START LISTENING TODAY.     POTUS PUZZLER This one is from Allie. Who was the first president to lead the initial national Christmas tree lighting ceremony and in what year did it take place? (Answer at the bottom.) The Oval ON THE RECORD: The White House responded to a Fox News story about connections Biden's political appointees have to progressive groups with a picture of a shirt that says: "Uncle Sam doesn't care, snowflakes." The White House didn't provide a formal comment prior to the story's publication. Instead, White House deputy press secretary ANDREW BATES told Fox News Digital that "this is our statement, on the record." Here's Fox News' PATRICK HAUF's full story, including that statement. Bates tweeted a picture of the shirt Monday afternoon. WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: This piece by WSJ's DAVID UBERTI: "Volatile energy markets have made 2022 a big year for commodity traders. One of the biggest and perhaps most unlikely winners: The U.S. government. Emergency releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve are slated to end this month, concluding an unusual attempt to lower gas prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices soaring. "Over the release period, Washington sold 180 million barrels of crude at an average of $96.25 apiece, well above the recent market price of $74.29 — meaning the U.S., for now, is almost $4 billion ahead." White House chief of staff RON KLAIN tweeted out the piece. WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN'T WANT YOU TO READ: This analysis by Morning Consult's AMANDA JACOBSON SNYDER about how "voters were much more likely to be tuned in to worrisome news about rising prices than headlines about gains in the U.S. job market. And while it's said that bad news travels fast, the electorate's interest in prices also squares with Morning Consult research showing that the cost of living drives voters' perception of the economy overall." BIDEN'S GIFT GUIDE: Every year for Christmas, Biden hand writes a poem and gives it to his wife, JILL BIDEN. In an interview that aired Monday on "The Drew Barrymore Show," the first lady said her husband "has a book that he bought for me and every year he writes a poem." But, the president told Barrymore the thoughtful gesture "doesn't quite do it" and he still goes shopping for his wife. This year's present is still a "surprise," he said. ALL ABOARD: The president posted a picture of a miniature "Biden express" train set as part of this year's White House Christmas decor. See it for yourself: Tweet by Joe Biden | Twitter THE BUREAUCRATS FAUCI'S FAREWELL ADVICE: In an interview with the AP, ANTHONY FAUCI , provided some words of wisdom just days before he steps down as chief medical adviser to the president: "Stick with the science and never be afraid to tell somebody something that is the truth — but it's an inconvenient truth in which there might be the possibility of the messenger getting shot. You don't worry about that. You just keep telling the truth." Fauci will leave his post at the end of the month, following more than five decades of public service. More from AP's LAURAN NEERGAARD. PUTTING THE 'CON' IN CONGRESSMAN: Last month, we wrote about how the White House was eyeing some moderate freshman Republican members of Congress as potential partners on future legislation. One of the new lawmakers was Rep.-elect GEORGE SANTOS from Long Island. Welp. You can bet those same folks were scratching their heads over this banger from the NYT's GRACE ASHFORD and MICHAEL GOLD on how Santos appears to be a (less murderous!) version of VERBAL KINT, the KEVIN SPACEY character in "The Usual Suspects" who just … made everything up. Santos later tweeted a statement from his attorney that answered none of the specific questions raised by the piece. Agenda Setting ABOUT THAT STUDENT DEBT RELIEF … The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on Feb. 28 involving the two cases challenging the legality of the Biden administration's student debt relief program. The administration's student debt relief plan offered up to $20,000 in loan forgiveness, but has since been put on pause by legal challenges. Our MICHAEL STRATFORD has more. BORDER POLITICS: The Supreme Court postponed a pandemic-era border policy from ending Wednesday, agreeing to press pause on lifting a federal order that has blocked the entry of millions of migrants. Chief Justice John Roberts on Monday temporarily stayed a lower court's ruling that forced the Biden administration to wind down Title 42 by Dec. 21. Roberts asked the Department of Justice for a response by Tuesday evening. Our MYAH WARD has more. PREVENTING HOMELESSNESS: The U.S. Interagency Council on Homelessness published a plan that aims to bring down homelessness by 25 percent, partly by working to increase the supply of housing in the U.S., KATY O'DONNELL reports for Pro subscribers. The goal, Biden said in the introduction, is "not only getting people into housing but also ensuring that they have access to the support, services, and income that allow them to thrive." What We're Reading Biden's bullish 2024 talk does little to tamp down chatter (AP's Will Weissert And Zeke Miller) White House leans on Congress, rallies allies, to aid Ukraine through winter of war (POLITICO's Jonathan Lemire) For Biden family, the holidays are both somber and celebratory (WaPo's Matt Viser) The Oppo Book We've noted that White House deputy chief of staff JEN O'MALLEY DILLON loves a morning Peloton workout, but when she was working on Biden's 2020 campaign, she was so dedicated she occasionally worked from the bike. According to a profile in The Boston Globe, O'Malley Dillon sometimes returned calls while on the Peloton from her basement around 11 p.m. "Which is, to be clear, insane," PATRICK DILLON, her husband said at the time.   POLITICO AT CES 2023 : We are bringing a special edition of our Digital Future Daily newsletter to Las Vegas to cover CES 2023. The newsletter will take you inside the largest and most influential technology event on the planet, featuring every major and emerging industry in the technology ecosystem gathered in one place. The newsletter runs from Jan. 5-7 and will focus on the public policy related aspects of the event. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of CES 2023.     POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER President CALVIN COOLIDGE presided over the first national Christmas tree lighting ceremony on Dec. 24, 1923. The event was held in the middle of the Ellipse — the lawn south of the White House. The tree, according to the National Park Service website, was a "48-foot balsam fir from Vermont. PAUL D. MOODY, president of Middlebury College in Vermont, Coolidge's home state, donated the tree." It was also decorated with "2,500 electric bulbs in red, white and green, donated by the Electric League of Washington." A CALL OUT — Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents with a citation and we may feature it. Edited by Eun Kyung Kim and Sam Stein.   Follow us on Twitter Alex Thompson @AlexThomp Eli Stokols @EliStokols Lauren Egan @Lauren_V_Egan Allie Bice @alliebice   Follow us

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