Mike Pence’s theory of the case

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Dec 20, 2022 View in browser   By Adam Wren Former Vice President Mike Pence signs copies of his book "So Help Me God" at the Republican Jewish Coalition Annual Leadership Meeting Nov. 18, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nev. | Scott Olson/Getty Images PENCE'S PATH — Mike Pence's path back to the White House may be a narrow one, but a path remains. For the last few months, I've been embedded in Pence world as he plots a 2024 bid against his former boss. And though some close allies think he should bide his time, others say he has a genuine shot at the Republican nomination — particularly if former President Donald Trump and ascendant Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis falter over the next many months leading up to Election Day. Pence is said to be all-in on a 2024 bid, even as he's still seeking the approval of his family over the holiday. So what, exactly, is Team Pence's theory of the case? Look no further than the 2008 and 2016 Iowa Caucuses victories by Mike Huckabee and Ted Cruz. Neither of them eventually won their party's nomination, but Iowa served as a valuable early state validator and springboard. "The Mike Pence voter is the Christian conservative in Iowa and South Carolina who put those social conservative issues at the top of the list, and who voted for Trump and were loyal to Trump," David Kochel, the veteran Iowa Republican strategist, told me. "But if they see Trump as someone who's not going to be able to be successful in November of 2024, they'll be looking somewhere else, and Pence is counting on that. It's a big enough base in Iowa." He added: "There is a line for that message." Indeed, Cruz beat Trump in Iowa by appealing to those voters. And Chip Saltsman, the campaign manager for Huckabee's 2008 presidential run, is guiding Pence's early state strategy, which has included copious trips to not only Iowa but South Carolina, where Pence has been well received. His first big public event last spring was at the Palmetto Family Council there. Pence, of course, isn't the only one tilling Iowa soil. Former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has visited the state, as has former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. Though Pence is mired in the single-digits in national polls, there's no national primary. He's building a carefully constructed early-state strategy where he's doing the kind of retail politics that make a difference. "The national polls don't mean anything," says Michael Biundo, a New Hampshire-based Republican operative who served as Rick Santorum's 2012 national campaign manager and is a senior adviser to Trump. "Everything changes when the rubber meets the road in the early states. He obviously has things he's going to have to overcome. Jan. 6 is going to be tough for him, but if he can walk a line between being somebody who's a throwback to an old-school politician and the policies of Make America Great Again, he's got a real shot." Bob Vander Plaats, a Pence ally and president and CEO of The Family Leader, an influential conservative Christian parent organization for the Iowa Family Policy Center, said the former vice president could do well there. "He's got as good of a shot as anybody else does," Vander Plaats told me. "He's always been well-liked in Iowa—governor of a [nearby] state. So he has a lot of relationships here. I don't think anybody should underestimate that." Vander Plaats said it was still too early to discern how the field would shake out there, citing a string of unsuccessful GOP boomlet candidates who didn't live up to the hype. "It's a little foolish or misguided to try to predict this far out," Vander Plaats said. "Because I remember Scott Walker. And I remember Rick Perry. And I remember Rudolph Giuliani. They were all going to be the nominee. And they didn't end up there." Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Contact tonight's author at awren@politico.com or on Twitter at @adamwren. We're compiling a list of the year's biggest stories for a year-end issue. Tell us what you think were the most important or interesting news stories of 2022 — and why. Let us know if we can include your name and hometown. Submit a response to nightly@politico.com for a chance to be featured in the newsletter later this week.   A NEW POLITICO PODCAST: POLITICO Tech is an authoritative insider briefing on the politics and policy of technology. From crypto and the metaverse to cybersecurity and AI, we explore the who, what and how of policy shaping future industries. We're kicking off with a series exploring darknet marketplaces, the virtual platforms that enable actors from all corners of the online world to traffic illicit goods. As malware and cybercrime attacks become increasingly frequent, regulators and law enforcement agencies work different angles to shut these platforms down, but new, often more unassailable marketplaces pop up. SUBSCRIBE AND START LISTENING TODAY.     The New Congress BLUE BLOOD — Incoming Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries announced today he would nominate Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) to lead House Democrats' campaign arm next cycle. If approved by the full caucus, she'll face the task of winning back a handful of seats to return House Democrats to the majority, writes Nicholas Wu. DelBene is the outgoing chair of the centrist New Democrat Coalition. She ran unsuccessfully to lead the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee several years ago but lost to Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.). In a statement, Jeffries praised DelBene's experience as a former frontline member and for her leadership in other DCCC positions. He singled out her "keen political instincts" for elevating the race in Washington's 3rd Congressional District, where Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez scored an upset win. The nomination is still subject to approval by the full Democratic caucus. A challenger can still emerge if several Democrats nominate one, though it is unlikely lawmakers are willing to stand in the way of Jeffries' choice. STORIES FROM SANTOS — An attorney for Republican Rep.-elect George Santos (R-N.Y.) responded to allegations in The New York Times that the politician made up core portions of his resume with a quote from Winston Churchill that PolitiFact says the British politician never uttered, writes Anthony Adragna. The New York Republican who flipped a seat previously held by Democrats in November, did not refute any of the allegations in his statement and some Democrats in the House were quick to call on GOP House leader Kevin McCarthy to block Santos' seating when the new Congress is sworn in come January. What'd I Miss? — DeSantis lays out 'blueprint' to elect more conservatives on school boards: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis wants to continue wielding his political influence in school board races across the state after his campaign helped two dozen conservative candidates win during this year's midterm elections. The Republican governor this week said he intends to flip more local seats from liberal to conservative-leaning education officials, taking aim at boards in areas such as Broward (Fort Lauderdale) and Hillsborough (Tampa) counties that have pushed back against Republican policies. Speaking at a school board training event he hosted in Orlando on Monday, DeSantis criticized "obnoxious" board members who went against the state and some parents by passing mask mandates for students amid the Covid-19 pandemic. — While advising Trump on judges, Conway sold her business to a firm with ties to judicial activist Leonard Leo: Longtime judicial activist Leonard Leo appears to have helped facilitate the sale of former White House senior adviser Kellyanne Conway's polling company in 2017 — as she was playing a key role in advocating for Leo's handpicked list of Supreme Court candidates, according to previously unreported financial documents reviewed by government ethics and finance experts. The transaction came at a critical moment for Conway after her ownership of The Polling Company had come under scrutiny from a congressional oversight committee for potential "conflicts of interest." — What's in and what's out of Congress' $1.7T spending bill: The year-end spending package that Congress is rushing to pass this week does more than fund the government through September. It's also chock full of policy provisions that affect everything from the lobster industry to TikTok to professional sports. The $1.7 trillion government funding measure is the last major must-pass bill on the legislative docket before the start of the 118th Congress in January, when divided government and a looming 2024 presidential election will make legislating even harder than it currently is. That makes the spending bill a magnet for members trying to cram in their priorities just before the holidays. — Feds probing Hertz for allegedly renting cars under recall: The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the federal auto safety regulator, announced today that it is investigating rental car company Hertz for allegedly renting vehicles that have been recalled without first fixing the issues, a practice that the agency says violates vehicle safety laws. NHTSA will audit Hertz's recall record from 2018 to 2020, specifically examining Ford and Nissan models that were under recall notices at the time. The agency said it began reviewing information in late 2021 that Hertz was renting out recalled vehicles. AROUND THE WORLD Then-Vice President Joe Biden sits with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before a dinner at the prime minister's residence March 9, 2010 in Jerusalem, Israel. | Pool photo by Baz Ratner BLAME BIBI — President Joe Biden and his aides have a plan for how to deal with the far-right, anti-Palestinian tilt of the incoming Israeli government: make it all about Benjamin Netanyahu, writes Nahal Toosi. The Biden administration will hold the presumptive Israeli prime minister personally responsible for the actions of his more extreme cabinet members, especially if they lead to policies that endanger a future Palestinian state, two U.S. officials familiar with the issue told POLITICO. Netanyahu is the person U.S. officials will publicly turn to, refer to and rely upon for any remotely serious talks on issues ranging from Israeli settlements in the West Bank to Israel's relations with Arab states, the officials said. The Israeli politician has, after all, stressed that he'll be running the show. "Bibi says he can control his government, so let's see him do just that," said one of the U.S. officials, using Netanyahu's nickname. The Biden team's approach underscores the complexity and the growing fragility of the U.S.-Israeli relationship. Israel's role as a security partner, as well as its role as a haven for the Jewish people, means any serious break is not feasible, no matter how radical its government. But the rightward trend in Israeli politics is also eroding what was once strong bipartisan support for the country in Washington, especially among Democrats who are increasingly willing to criticize Israel despite blowback on the campaign trail.   POLITICO AT CES 2023 : We are bringing a special edition of our Digital Future Daily newsletter to Las Vegas to cover CES 2023. The newsletter will take you inside the largest and most influential technology event on the planet, featuring every major and emerging industry in the technology ecosystem gathered in one place. The newsletter runs from Jan. 5-7 and will focus on the public policy related aspects of the event. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of CES 2023.     Nightly Number $800 million The amount of money in the omnibus spending bill that will be directed to cities struggling with an influx of migrants. The money will be allocated to FEMA's Emergency Food and Shelter humanitarian program for jurisdictions that have dealt with an influx of asylum seekers. The $1.7 trillion omnibus bill is expected to pass later this week. Radar Sweep SAFETY DANCE — Drug overdoses are continuing to steadily climb around the country, as spiked drugs become more prevalent. It's a particular problem at concerts, where the crush of the crowd can make it extra-difficult to get help to someone in distress. In response, venues are trying to roll out life-saving measures like Naloxone nasal-spray, but that's not without its complications, either. Marc Hogan reports on the new efforts for Pitchfork. Parting Image A couple seek vaccine information from a security guard at an entrance gate to a vaccination site in Beijing today. China continues to adapt to an easing of strict virus containment regulations as Covid cases surge dramatically in the country. | Andy Wong/AP Photo Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Katherine Long @katherinealong Ari Hawkins @_AriHawkins   Follow us

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