| | | | |  | | By Zach Montellaro and Madison Fernandez | Presented by PREMION | | | | NEW ORLEANS, La. — Democrats have had a lot of reasons to celebrate recently. Your Score host emeritus was on hand at the Democratic Governors Association winter meeting this weekend, where governors, operatives and donors were taking a victory lap after an incredibly successful cycle that saw them defend nearly all their incumbents and net two seats. But when Score caught up with New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, who assumed the DGA chairmanship for the second time this weekend, he was a bit bummed out. That can be forgiven: Murphy chatted with this fine newsletter just minutes after the USMNT lost a crushing 3-1 World Cup match to the Dutch. The soccer superfan — who owns a stake in a women's soccer team and sat front row for the watch party at the confab this weekend — joked at the start of the interview that all of his answers were going to be "very depressing" after the loss. He perked up once the conversation turned to the elections in 2023, where there are three gubernatorial contests on the calendar: Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi. Murphy said that as chair, "priority number one" will be getting Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear reelected, promising to "do what it takes to make sure that we're alongside him." When asked if that meant the committee would consider spending in the Republican primary — as it did in Maryland this year — he didn't rule it out: "I say this literally, you should assume that if something is legal and ethical, nothing's off the table."
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New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy speaks to reporters during a briefing in Trenton, N.J., Feb. 7, 2022. | Seth Wenig/AP Photo | The party will also be looking to defend the weekend's host state, where Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards is term-limited. Murphy told Score that "figuring out what our side looks like in terms of candidates is probably the top priority there," and argued that Mississippi — where Republican Gov. Tate Reeves hasn't formally kicked off a campaign but is expected to run — could be a "dark horse" state, although it would be a "complete away game" for Democrats. Beyond the 2023 elections, Murphy was very direct when asked if he thought President Joe Biden would run for reelection, and if he would support him. "Yes, and 1,000 percent," he answered. "We were at the White House the other night, for the state dinner for [French] President [Emmanuel] Macron. You looked around that room, you spoke to his team, this is a White House right now — rightfully — that has a lot of kick in their step. The president is on fire." Murphy said that he has privately told Biden the same, saying the president "has earned it." Murphy also had strong praise for the class of governors that just got elected in November, a diverse — and young — class of chief executives that are expected to be the next generation of leaders for the party. "You've got some people here who are rising stars," he said. (Stay tuned for a story from yours truly on Wednesday, as part of POLITICO's "The Fifty" series, for more on the future of this new class.) The conversation ended on a more upbeat note than it started, when Score asked Murphy about how he was feeling about the national team's chances in the 2026 World Cup, which the United States is co-hosting with Mexico and Canada (including matches in the Garden State). "We'll build, we are really young," he said, adding, "I think we're going to be peaking at a time that's perfectly suited to the Cup." He said he thought head coach Gregg Berhalter was the right guy to keep leading the team — "Jersey guy, by the way," the governor proudly noted, adding that he talked to midfielder Brenden Aaronson the night before to wish him good luck — but there's one thing the team needs to work on: "We have to figure out how to score more goals." Happy Monday. Thanks to Zach for today's top line. I hope he got some beignets while in NOLA. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616 . Days until Georgia runoff: TOMORROW Days until the 2023 election: 337 Days until the 2024 election: 701
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| | | HOUSE CALL — The final House race in California was called on Friday, notching one more win for the GOP. Republican John Duarte beat Democrat Adam Gray in CA-13. The Congressional Leadership Fund poured in over $7 million during the general election in support of Duarte for broadcast TV and digital advertising, mail and field programs. There's still one outstanding race in CO-03 between Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert and Democrat Adam Frisch, which went to a recount. Frisch already conceded, so it's looking like the Republican majority will be 222-213 next year. GEORGIA CORNER — Early voting ended in Georgia on Friday. More than 1.7 million people voted in person during the early voting period, and over 150,000 voted absentee, according to the Georgia secretary of state's office . More than 350,000 people voted in person on Friday, a single-day record for early voting. (Read on what to make of the early voting numbers from yours truly and my colleague Jessica Piper.) … FIRST IN SCORE — Incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is slightly ahead of Republican challenger Herschel Walker 51-46, according to a poll from the UMass Lowell's Center for Public Opinion , first shared with Score. (1,300 likely voters, Nov. 18-28, MoE +/- 3.2 percentage points.) "This electorate looks a lot more like a mobilization electorate than a persuasion electorate," John Cluverius, the center's director of survey research said. "Anything can happen, but Warnock is definitely in the driver's seat. The probabilities strongly favor Warnock winning, and there can't be a runoff from the runoff. There will be a conclusion to this race." In the general election, Warnock led Walker by less than one point — a strong indication that the results of tomorrow's election will also be close. Warnock leads among Black voters, women and voters ages 18 through 44, according to the poll. Self-identified moderate voters also broke for Warnock, 63-32, which Cluverius says is because many Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters in Georgia identify themselves as moderate voters. Walker has the advantage among white voters, men and voters 45 and older. ( A poll released by AARP last month also found older voters breaking for Walker.) … Warnock also has a slight lead in a CNN/SSRS poll of the runoff released on Friday , 52-48. (1,184 likely voters, Nov. 25-29, MoE +/- 3.8 points.) … "I've been talking to as many [voters] as I can," Walker told my colleague Brittany Gibson over the weekend . "I've never been hiding." Walker has had fewer public events than Warnock in recent weeks. On Saturday, Walker had a tailgate-style meet and greet before his alma mater, the University of Georgia, prepared to play in the SEC championships outside the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. On that note — Georgia Honor, the Senate Majority PAC-affiliated group, released an ad during the game highlighting reports of alleged domestic abuse. "A Georgia football legend," the spot says. "Then the lights went out on Herschel Walker." And more from the AP's Bill Barrow: " In Georgia, how sports explain a political battleground ." That meet and greet wasn't listed on Walker's public schedule. An event that was, though, was part of his "Evict Warnock Bus Tour" on Sunday, where Republican Sens. Tim Scott (S.C.) and John Kennedy (La.) stumped for him.
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Left: Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock rally at the University of Georgia on Dec. 4. Right: Sens. John Kennedy and Tim Scott share a moment as they campaign for Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker, left, during a campaign rally on Dec. 4 in Loganville, Georgia. | Win McNamee and Alex Wong/Getty Images | Some other prominent Republicans have also thrown their support behind Walker in recent days — in the form of money. Those include Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), whose principal campaign committee donated $2,000 on Thursday ; Sen. Mike Crapo (Idaho), whose committee also donated $2,000 on Friday; and former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, who donated $2,900 on Friday, along with another $2,900 from his wife Marsha. … Speaking of stumping, Rep.-elect Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) is crossing state lines to rally youth voters for Warnock. Frost, 25, will be the youngest member of Congress and the first Gen Z member. Young voters have become a key constituency for Democrats this cycle. In Georgia, voters 18-29 broke 63-34 for Warnock, according to the Edison exit poll . Voters in that age group have made up around 8 percent of the early vote turnout, per the Georgia secretary of state's office. "This election is too important to not Organize," Frost said in a tweet . COURT WATCHIN' — The Supreme Court is hearing Moore v. Harper on Wednesday. (What, you thought the runoff was the only thing happening this week?) The case will provide new precedent concerning "independent state legislature theory" — the ability of state courts and constitutions to overrule federal elections rules. Should the theory hold, the ability to challenge partisan gerrymandering or restrictive voting legislation passed by state legislators would be severely limited, stripping voters of state or federal court protection. … A Marquette Law School poll from last week found that 70 percent of respondents have not heard anything or have not heard enough to have an opinion about this case. Seven percent favor a ruling that state legislatures have sole authority and 22 percent oppose holding state courts to be without authority to alter the legislatures' decisions. (1,004 adults nationwide, Nov. 15-22, MoE +/- 3.7 percentage points.) 2024 WATCH — Sen. Dianne Feinstein hasn't said if she intends to seek another term in 2024 — but the competition to succeed the oldest member of Congress is escalating, POLITICO's Jeremy White writes . The potential shortlist includes Reps. Ro Khanna , Katie Porter , Adam Schiff and Barbara Lee . … As Senate Democrats grapple with a daunting map and a handful of undecided incumbents, a quartet of races are attracting a flurry of interest from ambitious Republicans who see safe seats in 2024, POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Olivia Beavers report . Places to keep an eye on: Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana. RNC RIVALRY — Harmeet Dhillon, a RNC committeewoman whose firm represents Donald Trump, is prepping a bid for party chair, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reports . A Dhillon candidacy would mark the most serious challenge to current chair Ronna McDaniel, who is running for another term, to date. "After three successive terms of underwhelming results at the polls for the GOP, all the while with leaders congratulating ourselves for outstanding performance, I feel that we owe it to our voters to have a serious debate about the leadership of the party and what we must change to actually win in 2024," Dhillon said in a statement. WHAT HAPPENED — As defeated Republican Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake "anticipates a legal battle, four of her campaign staffers and advisers offered their reflections on the campaign that at one point seemed on a glide path to victory — but fell just short," The Arizona Republic's Stacey Barchenger reports . "They point to a late-in-the-game shift to focus too narrowly on the playbook written by Donald Trump and on Maricopa County versus pitching Lake's plans for the future of the state to all Arizonans, namely rural residents and swing voters. Now multiple former aides, outside consultants and even leaders of Hobbs' campaign acknowledge that had Lake stuck to slightly more traditional advice, Arizona's next governor might be a Republican and not a Democrat."
| | | | POLITICO APP USERS: UPGRADE YOUR APP BY DECEMBER 19! We recently upgraded the POLITICO app with a fresh look and improved features for easier access to POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Starting December 19, users will no longer have access to the previous version of the app. Update your app today to stay on top of essential political news, insights, and analysis from the best journalists in the business. UPDATE iOS APP – UPDATE ANDROID APP . | | | | | | | | — The big news from this weekend: the presidential primary calendar's dramatic makeover. The notable omission: Iowa, which has held the first-in-the-nation status since the 1970s. The move came after President Joe Biden urged the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee to elevate South Carolina as the first primary state and to eliminate Iowa. Here's the proposed order:
- South Carolina: Feb. 3
- New Hampshire and Nevada: Feb. 6
- Georgia: Feb. 13
- Michigan: Feb. 27
The DNC will require the new group of five early states to "certify" or provide updated information about moving their primary date by Jan. 5, 2023. If they fail to do so, the waivers allowing them to go early are "automatically null and void," according to a DNC staff member, meaning that the state will fall out of the early window.
… But, but but: The actual mechanics of putting another primary in front of New Hampshire's and bumping Georgia's forward into the early-state window could prove complicated, POLITICO's Elena Schneider notes . "In Georgia, the DNC must work with Republican-controlled state legislatures and governors to change the dates of their primaries. The Republican National Committee, which has an open presidential nominating contest in 2024, voted this year to affirm its current early-state lineup of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Meanwhile, New Hampshire state law gives election officials the power to make sure its presidential primary is the first in the nation." Officials from both Iowa and New Hampshire were not happy, to say the least. Some in New Hampshire pledged to continue holding the nation's first Democratic presidential primary. But earlier this year, the DNC voted to strengthen penalty power over states that jump ahead. That includes losing half of their delegates and punishing the candidates who choose to campaign in those states.
| | | FIRST IN SCORE — Democrats have some work to do on the messaging front. According to a poll from Way to Win , a Democratic organizing and strategy group, and conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International, 78 percent of respondents in eight battleground states could not name a thing that Biden has done in the past two years that directly helped them in their life. (3,600 2022 midterm voters in Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas, Oct. 26 to Nov. 9, MoE +/- 1.6 percentage points.) "We have to experiment more with how to tell these stories in clear ways to bring salience, to connect with people emotionally, and tell those stories of how are people's lives getting better — how are things changing as a result of these policies?" said Jenifer Fernandez Ancona, co-founder of Way to Win. "It's kind of a marketing strategy that we have to do. It's not enough to just create the policy change. … It has to be explicitly about this multiracial, diverse coalition that we have, so that everybody can see themselves in it when you tell the story about what Democrats are doing and how that contrasts with the Republicans' obstruction, distraction and division." For voters who said that the economy was a top issue, Democrats lost those voters 62–30. Fernandez Ancona noted that concerns about abortion and democracy propelled voters to support Democrats this year, but messaging on the economy remains an area that Democrats need to improve on heading into the next cycle. "I think that's the trap we've been in in the past, where we think that we only should talk about economic issues and so then we can't address some of these issues like abortion and democracy," she said. "So how do we actually bring those things together in how we talk about the economy and everything going on in voters' lives? I think that's what has been missing and that's how we have to start shifting those perceptions." Another key: reach the "anti-MAGA majority," Fernandez Ancona said. "Pundits and prognosticators really missed the mark in predicting that this red wave would wash away our majorities on the Democratic side. This anxiety about a loss of rights and freedom and attack on democracy itself really helped create this anti-MAGA majority that is really real and that is really relevant going forward to 2024." — Another finding from the UMass Lowell poll: If the presidential election was held currently, Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has a slight lead on President Joe Biden in Georgia, 47-46. DeSantis hasn't announced a presidential run, although there's much speculation. In a separate head-to-head, Biden has the lead on former President Donald Trump, 47-43. … RELATED: "How Donald Trump is helping Raphael Warnock in Georgia," by CNN's Harry Enten CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Democrats have really given middle America the middle finger," said Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) on "Fox News Sunday"
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With the explosive growth in streaming TV, more and more voters are cutting the cord and Connected TV (CTV) is an essential media channel for engaging them.
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