There’s no such thing as a bad jobs report

Dec 02, 2022

By Ben White , Kate Davidson and Sam Sutton

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The November jobs report out on Friday morning is not likely to be a screaming, Wall Street-shaking number. Chances are fairly good that it comes in somewhere close to the analyst consensus of 200,000 with no change in the 3.7 percent jobless rate. That would represent a further decline in the pace of post-Covid era job creation from 261,000 in October.

But the White House appears a little concerned about a potentially lower number. Or the administration at least wants to convince reporters and the public that a continued slowdown in job creation is not a big cause for worry but in fact a sign of a return to steady growth.

White House officials even argue that a low-ish number could be good news in the sense that it could mean less pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep hiking rates hard and fast to beat back wage gains that feed into inflation.

"The totality of recent data we've seen over the last several weeks shows clear progress toward bringing down inflation without giving up the gains from a historic recovery," one senior White House economic adviser said Thursday on a conference call. Another official spoke of "cautious optimism" that the U.S. is seeing a "transition to a sustainable rate of payroll growth."

It's not an entirely implausible story they are selling. But the realities — both political and economic — could play out in much uglier ways. A really low number would obviously be a political hit to the White House and Democrats in Congress. And it would stoke Wall Street and economist fears that the jobs engine is stalling even as inflation remains highly elevated (though edging lower).

Jobless claims, job openings and the quits rate are already signaling a slowdown. So are corporations through talk of hiring freezes, potential cuts and in some cases actual layoffs. Then there is the fact that Americans are burning through Covid-era savings right now to sustain spending and racking up fresh credit card debt that will have to be paid off at higher rates, courtesy of the Fed.

The concept of a soft landing for the economy — meaning no recession or a gentle one — remains at least somewhat viable. But it's also very possible that once all the rate hikes work into the system, Covid-era savings run out and companies increasingly panic about a drop in consumer demand, the White House's idealized "sustainable rate" of job growth turns into a quick plunge into negative numbers.

FAREWELL! — Some news from Kate: MM readers, today's edition of Morning Money will be my last as co-author, as I depart POLITICO this week for a new adventure.

I can't tell you how much I've enjoyed steering this ship, thanks in no small part to the wonderful community of folks who read MM every day and who care about economic and financial policy. I'm grateful for your generous feedback, smart insights and helpful tips. You can continue to find me — and more details about what's next — on Twitter at @ katedavidson . (I'm not going far!)

And a big thanks of course to my colleagues and editors on the financial services and economy team, especially my MM co-author Sam Sutton, whose fantastic reporting and analysis always made my job easier. It was a fun ride!

But stay tuned for familiar MM bylines . POLITICO Financial Services Editor Zach Warmbrodt will be your new guide for economic policy in Washington. Zach has been on the financial regulation beat at POLITICO for more than a decade, covering Capitol Hill and federal agencies. He was named financial services editor last year, after dominating coverage of the Paycheck Protection Program during the pandemic.

Sam Sutton will continue to report for the newsletter from New York, where he will track Wall Street's most powerful players. Sam has been POLITICO's lead crypto policy reporter for the past year, delivering scoops on the rise and fall of FTX and owning coverage of the industry's broader lobbying surge and market crash. He previously reported on New Jersey state government and the private equity industry.

IT'S FRIDAY — We loved working with you, Kate. You're an amazing reporter, colleague and friend. Please send tips to ssutton@politico.com and zwarmbrodt@politico.com .

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Driving The Day

Labor Department releases employment data at 8:30 a.m. … Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on regulation at 10:15 a.m.

TROUBLE BEHIND — From Alex Daugherty, Burgess Everett, Tanya Snyder and Nick Niedzwiadek: "The Senate voted Thursday to avert a freight rail strike just days before crucial drinking water, food and energy shipments were set to be sidelined, after hurried talks in both chambers of Congress and a visit to the Senate from two of President Joe Biden's Cabinet secretaries — but a bipartisan push to add paid sick leave to the deal fell short."

SUPREME COURT TO WEIGH STUDENT DEBT RELIEF — POLITICO's Michael Stratford and Josh Gerstein: "The decision tees up a high-stakes battle at the high court early next year that will decide the fate of Biden's sweeping plan to provide up to $20,000 of debt relief to tens of millions of Americans who owe federal student loans."

GRASSLEY A 'NO' ON SAFE BANKING AS STANDALONE — "I really don't like it for the reason that … it'll cut into one of the tools that we use to stop money laundering," Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) told POLITICO's Natalie Fertig on Capitol Hill on Thursday. He added that if it's added to other legislation, however, "then it depends on what otherwise might be in the legislation."

The plan: Senators are trying to reach a deal on the SAFE Banking Act so it can be included in the National Defense Authorization Act. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), chair of the Senate Banking Committee — which has primary jurisdiction over the SAFE Banking Act — said on Thursday he "hopes" it is in the NDAA. He added that he's working with lawmakers from Colorado, Montana and Nevada on hammering out the details.

PPP FRAUD — Our Katy O'Donnell: "Several financial technology companies exposed the Paycheck Protection Program to tens of billions of dollars in potential fraud , an investigation by the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis found. The firms … failed to thoroughly vet applications while pocketing billions of dollars in administrative fees, according to a staff report the subcommittee released Thursday."

EVERYBODY HATES A CORRECTION — POLITICO: "Elon Musk publicly retracted his accusations that Apple had threatened to remove Twitter from its App Store — two days after his claim unleashed a tsunami of Republican attacks and threats of reprisals against the iPhone-maker."

Regulatory Corner

RISING RATES ARE GOOD FOR BANK BUSINESS — Our Victoria Guida: "Bank profits soared to a near-record high in the third quarter of the year as the Federal Reserve's battle against inflation pushed up the income they earn from interest, according to data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp."

NOW THAT WE'VE GOT THAT OUT OF THE WAY — Victoria again: "Federal Reserve Vice Chair of Supervision Michael Barr on Thursday gave the clearest signal yet that he's looking to raise bank capital requirements , although his review of those rules is not yet complete.

— Suffice it to say, the banks weren't thrilled: "There is no compelling case to increase capital requirements at the largest banks," Financial Services Forum President and CEO Kevin Fromer said in a statement. "Regulators must carefully consider the economic impact of capital requirements, because they affect the whole economy, not just banks."

"WE ONLY LOST ONE" — In a Q&A with Bloomberg's Lydia Beyoud, SEC Chair Gary Gensler talks competition, crypto and the threat of litigation today versus what the Gensler-led CFTC faced in the post-financial crisis era: "It's a different agency, different times. But at that point we did 67 Dodd-Frank actions, and we did another 15 or 16 not related — so 80-plus. We got challenged in court. That's part of democracy, that's part of our constitutional system. We only lost one. And we got challenged on way more than one."

Fed File

HE WON'T HAVE TO GO FAR — For the last time, our Kate Davidson: Austan Goolsbee, a former top economic adviser to President Barack Obama, has been named the next president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago .

Crypto

WE ARE ALL DOING OUR BEST — Our Sam Sutton and Declan Harty: "Senior senators and a top financial regulator on Thursday tried to distance themselves from the failed crypto exchange FTX in the first Hill hearing on its demise, even as they stood by a regulatory proposal they authored with backing from the company."

— "Invariably, the questions we are all obligated to answer as regulators are: 'How did you let this happen?' and 'How will you prevent this from happening again?'" [CFTC Chair Rostin] Behnam said in the remarks . "In the pivotal moment we find ourselves in, the answer to both questions is comprehensive, market regulations."

— Behnam also detailed his meetings with Sam Bankman-Fried in connection to FTX's push to let investors place leveraged trades on crypto. The CFTC did not receive any reports of fraud or misconduct at FTX prior to the company's sudden implosion last month.

— While Behnam and top lawmakers described arms-length encounters with Bankman-Fried – who'd spent millions feting policymakers in an attempt to influence crypto regulation – Dennis Kelleher of Better Markets says they haven't done nearly enough: "It was just a platform for the CFTC Chair to brag about what a great job the CFTC has done, has no responsibility at all for any FTX-related problems, and how he should be rewarded by Congress enacting the Committee's FTX-endorsed bill."

ANOTHER ONE — From Katy: "The CFPB on Thursday defended an investigation into a crypto lending product after a digital asset startup challenged its authority, indicating the bureau wants to preserve the ability to police the industry."

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Jobs Report

FAZILI LEAVES WHITE HOUSE — Scoop from our Daniel Lippman: "Sameera Fazili, deputy director of the National Economic Council and a deputy assistant to the president, is exiting on Friday , according to two people familiar with the matter. She led the White House's work on trying to fix the supply chain problems that have fueled inflation and also on passing the CHIPS and Science Act."

Plaid's Head of North American Policy Leigh Lytle has been named chair of the Financial Technology Association for 2023. The fintech industry association's board will be rounded out by Teddy Flo of Zest AI, Brian Peters of Stripe and Tom Manatos of Block.