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Jan 03, 2023 View in browser   By Madison Fernandez TOP LINE THE OFF-YEAR — While things may be a bit slower on the election front compared to 2022, there's still plenty to keep an eye on in 2023. Here's what you may have missed over the holidays, and what to look out for as we kick back into gear. — 280 votes: Democrat Kris Mayes officially won the race for Arizona attorney general over Republican Abe Hamadeh. An automatic recount, which was called because the initial margin of victory was so close, had Mayes finishing 280 votes ahead of Hamadeh — a drop from her lead of 511 votes in the original count. That shift was largely due to "human error" with vote counting in Pinal County. Arizona has seen weeks of election-related legal battles, including for the attorney general race. Hamadeh filed two lawsuits challenging the results, the first of which was dismissed in November for being filed prematurely. The second was denied at the end of last month because there was not enough evidence. Hamadeh is calling for further inspection of the ballots and has said that he'll file another legal challenge. (Defeated Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake's election challenge was also tossed last month. She's indicated that she'll pursue further legal action as well.) — (At least) 4 probes: New members of Congress will be sworn in later today, but one is facing a litany of scandals. New York Republican George Santos' campaign narrative seems to be unraveling by the day, as new questions arise regarding biographical details he shared during his campaign. Multiple law enforcement agencies are looking into Santos' actions. That reportedly includes federal prosecutors, the Nassau County district attorney and New York state Attorney General Tish James' office. On Monday night, Brazilian authorities said they intend to revive fraud charges against Santos — meaning he could face up to five years in prison if found guilty. Punishment from Republican House leadership seems unlikely, considering how thin the Republican majority is. Santos has refused to step down (if he did, there would be a special election), but Democrats are already plotting how they can win the seat back. Santos won NY-03 by 8 points in November, flipping the seat from Democrat Tom Suozzi, who's leaving Congress. — 7 governors: That's how many governors were sworn in on Sunday and Monday — Democrats Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico, Kathy Hochul of New York, Katie Hobbs of Arizona and Tim Walz of Minnesota, as well as Republicans Mark Gordon of Wyoming and Joe Lombardo of Nevada. A slate of others are being sworn in today: Republican Ron DeSantis of Florida, along with Democrats Dan McKee of Rhode Island and Tony Evers of Wisconsin. More inauguration festivities for governors across the country are also planned in the coming days and weeks. — 5 days: Republican Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse is officially resigning from Congress in five days to become the president at the University of Florida, which means we could expect to have a new senator named shortly after. Incoming Republican Gov.-elect Jim Pillen, who's in charge of appointing someone to the position, has said the timeline will be figured out once he's sworn in on Jan. 5. "The goal would be that we would be in a position to make an announcement quickly," he told the Omaha World-Herald. "It's important not to have that seat open very many days." The governor-elect's office has not said how many people applied to the position, but outgoing Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts is seen as the frontrunner. Republican John Glen Weaver, who unsuccessfully ran for the House last year, and Democrat Ann Ashford, who unsuccessfully ran for the House in 2020, are among some of the other known candidates. Whoever is picked would face an election in 2024, should they run again. — 13 months: In exactly 13 months — Feb. 3, 2024 — we could be experiencing our first presidential primary in South Carolina. That is, of course, dependent on if the Democratic National Committee approves the proposed altered nominating calendar at its meeting next month. More immediately, we'll be keeping an eye on what states will do if the new calendar is approved. The revisions could cause a host of issues for states, including Iowa, which would be knocked off the early calendar. State statute says that political parties are to hold caucuses at least eight days before any other presidential caucus or primary. New Hampshire would lose its first-in-the-nation status, which also goes against state law. Michigan — a new addition to the lineup on Feb. 27, should the proposal pass — would also need to change its law, which currently says that presidential primaries take place the second Tuesday in March. The state Senate in November approved moving the primary, which the House hasn't voted on. Welcome to 2023, and welcome back to Morning Score. I hope you all had a relaxing holiday and are ready to get back into the swing of things. Send your New Year's resolutions, tips and feedback to mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the VA-04 special election: 49 Days until the Kentucky primary: 133 Days until the Mississippi primary: 217 Days until the Louisiana primary: 284 Days until the 2023 election: 308 Days until the 2024 election: 672 Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You'll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day's biggest stories. CAMPAIGN INTEL THE OTHER ELECTION — The House is set to elect its speaker today — a vote that will shape the GOP landscape ahead of the 2024 cycle. POLITICO's Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney take a look at Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy's turbulent bid for the speaker's gavel. IN THE STATES — Candidates can qualify for state offices in Mississippi starting today. Here's a look at who might run, courtesy of the Mississippi Clarion Ledger's Wicker Perlis. Mississippi is one of three states hosting gubernatorial contests this year, along with Kentucky (whose filing deadline is this Friday) and Louisiana, with a filing deadline eight months away. … State legislators in Pennsylvania are scheduled to elect its House speaker today. That may sound easy enough, but politics in the state legislature are a little chaotic this year. At the heart of the matter is a disagreement over which party has the right to set the special elections to fill seats that became empty because two Democratic state House members resigned for higher office and another died. Democrats won more seats in November, but Republicans are expected to have 101 seats compared to Democrats' 99 once the legislators are sworn in today. "If GOP lawmakers succeed, they could use their window of control to pass amendments to the constitution requiring voter ID, easing the rollback of regulations, and potentially even limiting abortion rights. Attempts to amend the state constitution were passed last session and if they pass in two consecutive sessions, they will be put on the ballot for voters to consider without the need of the signature of Democratic Gov.-elect Josh Shapiro," POLITICO's Holly Otterbein writes. … We're watching quite a few states as local leaders vie to take over state parties ahead of the presidential election. Lou Gargiulo, who co-chaired former President Donald Trump's 2020 campaign in New Hampshire, said Sunday in a lengthy Facebook post that he's running for New Hampshire state GOP chair against Chris Ager. Ager is the state's national committeeman on the RNC. … Chicago's mayoral election is just over a month away. Four years ago, Lori Lightfoot won her long shot campaign for mayor. The Chicago Tribune's Gregory Pratt and Alice Yin take a look at the crowded candidate pool: "Lesser-known candidates making their first run for mayor in the Feb. 28 election face a different challenge breaking through and being recognized as realistic possibilities by city voters. But as Lightfoot's stunning 2019 victory shows, leading in the polls two months from the election doesn't guarantee victory." REDISTRICTING REDUX — Ohio's political maps have a long road ahead. Both state-level and congressional maps have been turned down multiple times, and as the new legislative session kicks off, legislators are poised to tackle redistricting yet again. "But this time around, majority leaders may not have as much trouble getting maps through the current approving authority: The Ohio Supreme Court," Ohio Capital Journal's Susan Tebben writes. "With the departure of Chief Justice Maureen O'Connor due to age limits, Justice Sharon Kennedy was elected to take the top spot, and Kennedy made clear how she felt about redistricting in the past, accusing the court majority of judicial overreach in rejecting maps as unconstitutional." … More from the AP's Julie Carr Smyth: "What's ahead for Ohio's unsettled political maps?" Presidential Big Board — President Joe Biden hasn't officially announced his reelection campaign yet, but he's starting the year off with a strong hand, POLITICO's Jonathan Lemire writes. "Advisors privately acknowledge that Biden benefitted in 2020 by being spared the full rigors of a campaign due to the pandemic and some close to him harbor anxieties as to how he will handle a punishing, full-blown itinerary this time around. Though some Democrats still express worry about Biden's age, their public doubts were largely silenced by the party's strong November showing, in which Democrats grew their Senate lead and prevented a red wave in the House. There are still worries, chief among them, per White House aides, is the economy." … The Committee to Defeat the President PAC has kicked off the year by spending over $22,000 rallying against Biden, per an FEC filing. The expenditures are, in part, for estimated online and phone voter contact. — No, Mike Pence didn't announce his presidential run over the holidays. An FEC form for "Mike Richard Pence" was filed last week, but a Pence spokesperson said it was a fake filing. VOTING RIGHTS — Here's what to watch in key battleground states regarding election laws this year, courtesy of your host and my colleague Zach Montellaro. The most immediate one: Ohio, where a bill that would require voters to show photo ID at the polls, limit the number of days to request and return an absentee ballot, and eliminate early in-person voting the Monday before an election, is awaiting action from Republican Gov. Mike DeWine. The bill has drawn rebukes from Democrats including Vice President Kamala Harris, and Marc Elias, a prominent attorney in the Democratic Party, who said he would sue Ohio if the bill is signed. — Election data from a trio of states that dramatically expanded the ability to cast ballots before Election Day, either early or by mail, demonstrate that the voting methods that were decidedly uncontroversial before Trump do not clearly help either party, POLITICO's Jessica Piper reports. It reflects a broad lesson for other states that might consider expanding voter access or encouraging voting before Election Day: While voting methods have become deeply polarized by party, expanding access to early and mail voting does not appear to benefit one party over the other. POLL POSITION — "Not for the first time, a warped understanding of the contours of a national election had come to dominate the views of political operatives, donors, journalists and, in some cases, the candidates themselves," The New York Times' Jim Rutenberg, Ken Bensinger and Steve Eder write. "The misleading polls of 2022 did not just needlessly spook some worried candidates into spending more money than they may have needed to on their own races. They also led some candidates — in both parties — who had a fighting chance of winning to lose out on money that could have made it possible for them to do so, as those controlling the purse strings believed polls that inaccurately indicated they had no chance at all." CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It wasn't my fault that the Republicans didn't live up to expectations in the MidTerms." (Former President Donald Trump)   Follow us on Twitter Steven Shepard @politico_steve Zach Montellaro @zachmontellaro Ally Mutnick @allymutnick Madison Fernandez @madfernandez616   Follow us

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